weakest recovery since the depression

[Virgil Showlion]

It hasn't worked out: most show up late, work slower than seasoned farm hands and are ready to call it a day after lunch or by midafternoon. Some quit after a single day.

In Alabama and other parts of the country, farmers must look beyond the nation's borders for labour because many Americans simply don't want the backbreaking, low-paying jobs immigrants are willing to take.

*sigh*

Fair enough.

"The law's effects are also being felt in south Georgia, Connie Horner has heard just about every reason unemployed Americans don't want to work on her blueberry farm: it's hot, the hours are long, the pay isn't enough and it's just plain hard.

'You can't find legal workers,' Ms Horner said. 'Basically they last a day or two, literally.'" (ibid.)

Who was saying automation was a bad thing?

[formerroomate99]

you didn't read the article, did you? the business climate has very little to do with our problem. the business climate is driven by consumers, and consumers are the problem.

But even if business is good, many companies will hoard cash rather than expanding because they are afraid--very much the same way that a consumer who just got a raise will save the cash for a rainy day rather than buy stuff.

[Tennesseer]

Jul 9, 2012 9:30:14 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

It hasn't worked out: most show up late, work slower than seasoned farm hands and are ready to call it a day after lunch or by midafternoon. Some quit after a single day.

In Alabama and other parts of the country, farmers must look beyond the nation's borders for labour because many Americans simply don't want the backbreaking, low-paying jobs immigrants are willing to take.

*sigh*

Fair enough.

"The law's effects are also being felt in south Georgia, Connie Horner has heard just about every reason unemployed Americans don't want to work on her blueberry farm: it's hot, the hours are long, the pay isn't enough and it's just plain hard.

'You can't find legal workers,' Ms Horner said. 'Basically they last a day or two, literally.'" (ibid.)

Who was saying automation was a bad thing?

Blueberries are a very delicate product. Picking blueberries, or any other delicate food product, by machine would destroy them. Some food items simply must be picked by hand.

[Virgil Showlion]

Blueberries are a very delicate product. Picking blueberries, or any other delicate food product, by machine would destroy them. Some food items simply must be picked by hand.

Tell that to Ms. Horner.

From the Daily Mail article:

Ms Horner, who runs an 8 1/2-acre organic blueberry farm, said she tried to use the government's visa program to hire foreign workers, but it was too costly and time consuming.

She plans to stop growing organically and start using a machine to pick the berries.

They'll be "industrial grade" blueberries, I guess.

Or, seeing as Americans aren't exactly known for their food quality standards, "Mrs. Horner's Blueberry-Like Substance (now with pesticides!)".

[formerroomate99]

Jul 8, 2012 18:27:46 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Jul 8, 2012 16:56:06 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Reduce their basic needs?

When you reduce the current supplies which they are using to meet their basic needs, those less able to take advantage of the remaining supply will be forced to move in the attempt to fill those basic needs. Some will die as a result.

Bill. We have illegal's begging for jobs that no one in this country will take. We have citizens refusing to work, while having no problem living off of those who do. Put it together.

Bills also seems to be of the opinion that moving for work always means risking your life. While it may be true for an animal with a brain the size of a walnut migrating to a wild area, it is hardly the case for a human migrating to another state.

[Tennesseer]

Jul 9, 2012 10:19:39 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Blueberries are a very delicate product. Picking blueberries, or any other delicate food product, by machine would destroy them. Some food items simply must be picked by hand.

Tell that to Ms. Horner.

From the Daily Mail article:

Ms Horner, who runs an 8 1/2-acre organic blueberry farm, said she tried to use the government's visa program to hire foreign workers, but it was too costly and time consuming.

She plans to stop growing organically and start using a machine to pick the berries.

They'll be "industrial grade" blueberries, I guess.

Or, seeing as Americans aren't exactly known for their food quality standards, "Mrs. Horner's Blueberry-Like Substance (now with pesticides!)".

Maybe Mrs. Horner can buy a used pecan tree shaker (used to shake the nuts out of the trees) to use on her blueberry bushes.

[billisonboard]

Jul 9, 2012 10:26:11 GMT -5 formerroomate99 said:

Jul 8, 2012 18:27:46 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Bill. We have illegal's begging for jobs that no one in this country will take. We have citizens refusing to work, while having no problem living off of those who do. Put it together.

Bills also seems to be of the opinion that moving for work always means risking your life. While it may be true for an animal with a brain the size of a walnut migrating to a wild area, it is hardly the case for a human migrating to another state.

I indicated earlier that the parallels between deer/animal and human at times involve metaphor. When you move to another state, you do risk the life that you have known dying.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 8:31:48 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Jul 7, 2012 12:44:02 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the policies are not helping the individual get over this. that is where the problem lies. we are encouraging more consumption in an atmosphere where people are reducing debt. it is 180 degrees the opposite of how we should be thinking, from a policy standpoint.

the question is: how do we get people to stop spending on credit? what incentives could we put on the consumer credit system that would allow people to pay down debt AND spend?

Sorry. Late to the thread, but I didn't see these fundamental questions addressed.

You get people to stop spending on credit by allowing interest rates to normalize.

Given the insane debt levels that people are carrying today, I cannot think of a way that people can pay down their debt and spend at the same time without wage increases. The only way I can think of to increase wages that much without attendant inflation increases is to drastically improve efficiency. I cannot think of the next great thing that will make that possible.

by efficiency do you mean productivity?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 2:07:46 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

Jul 8, 2012 20:20:36 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Is this true?

I'm not saying it isn't (I really have no idea.) But it occurs to me that I've never see anything to substantiate the claim, and it seems like something at risk of being repeated so often that it's more of a mantra than a proven assumption. :-\

Potato farmer Keith Smith saw most of his immigrant workers leave after Alabama's tough immigration law took effect, so he hired Americans.


It hasn't worked out: most show up late, work slower than seasoned farm hands and are ready to call it a day after lunch or by midafternoon. Some quit after a single day.

bingo. and i think what you will find is that Americans are not going to work for those wages. to get Americans to do those things, you are going to have to pay a LOT more, which will drive up prices. personally, i am fine with that, but i am not sure that most Americans are.

[formerroomate99]

I indicated earlier that the parallels between deer/animal and human at times involve metaphor. When you move to another state, you do risk the life that you have known dying.

Oh boo freaking hoo. So now it is up to me to pay for someone to sit on their arse because I was willing to move for work and others are not?

bingo. and i think what you will find is that Americans are not going to work for those wages. to get Americans to do those things, you are going to have to pay a LOT more, which will drive up prices. personally, i am fine with that, but i am not sure that most Americans are.

Yes, but how much of this 'Americans not being willing to do the work' is due to our lovely welfare system distorting the labor market? People get very industrious when their next meal is at stake. If you subsidize people enough, McDonald's will have to pay their cashiers 6 figures to get competent cashiers.

[Driftr]

Jul 9, 2012 10:57:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 9, 2012 8:31:48 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Sorry. Late to the thread, but I didn't see these fundamental questions addressed.

You get people to stop spending on credit by allowing interest rates to normalize.

Given the insane debt levels that people are carrying today, I cannot think of a way that people can pay down their debt and spend at the same time without wage increases. The only way I can think of to increase wages that much without attendant inflation increases is to drastically improve efficiency. I cannot think of the next great thing that will make that possible.

by efficiency do you mean productivity?

Sure.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 11:07:32 GMT -5 formerroomate99 said:

I indicated earlier that the parallels between deer/animal and human at times involve metaphor. When you move to another state, you do risk the life that you have known dying.

Oh boo freaking hoo. So now it is up to me to pay for someone to sit on their arse because I was willing to move for work and others are not?

bingo. and i think what you will find is that Americans are not going to work for those wages. to get Americans to do those things, you are going to have to pay a LOT more, which will drive up prices. personally, i am fine with that, but i am not sure that most Americans are.

Yes, but how much of this 'Americans not being willing to do the work' is due to our lovely welfare system distorting the labor market?

maybe 5%? most people that graduated from high school and have some college have higher expectations from employment than picking lettuce, fep.

People get very industrious when their next meal is at stake.

not for picking lettuce, bro. i would rather work in a nice air conditioned restaurant than work in the fields any day, week, or hour.

If you subsidize people enough, McDonald's will have to pay their cashiers 6 figures to get competent cashiers.

true, but, with the exception of UI, we are actually subsidizing people less right now than any time in the last 15 years, so i am not sure what your point is.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 11:11:02 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Jul 9, 2012 10:57:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

by efficiency do you mean productivity?

Sure.

productivity has continued to rise for the last 40 years (primarily due to that handy device called the computer), but wages associated with that labor have not. the windfall has gone to profit, not to workers. workers have compensated for the shortfall by adding debt, and wealthy people have loaned them the money. great deal for them. why pay in wages what you can loan and earn interest on?

this issue is virtually unknown in the wider public, by the way. if it were better known, people would be outraged.

[zipity]

Ms Horner, who runs an 8 1/2-acre organic blueberry farm, said she tried to use the government's visa program to hire foreign workers, but it was too costly and time consuming.

She plans to stop growing organically and start using a machine to pick the berries.
They'll be "industrial grade" blueberries, I guess.

Ms. Horner has hit the nail squarely on the head. If the cost of legal labor is too high to allow your business to survive, then your only choice is to modify your business plan or go out of business. If Americans are satisfied with industrial grade blueberries then growing organic blueberries is a bad business decision. On the other hand, if Americans find that they are missing the flavor they get from organic blueberries then they will be willing to pay extra for it. Personally I have 2 rather large blueberry bushes that give us a massive harvest every year. It's more than enough to satisfy my cravings for blueberry pancakes, muffins, pie with plenty left over to jar up for a few treats over the winter.

Same holds true for the story about the Belmont stables, if they can't afford to pay a wage which will attract the labor they need then they should either change their business model or find a new business. Special guest worker programs aren't the answer, they only suck money from the US economy which is ultimately spent where ever the worker lives.

[Driftr]

Jul 9, 2012 11:14:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 9, 2012 11:11:02 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Sure.

productivity has continued to rise for the last 40 years (primarily due to that handy device called the computer), but wages associated with that labor have not. the windfall has gone to profit, not to workers. workers have compensated for the shortfall by adding debt, and wealthy people have loaned them the money. great deal for them. why pay in wages what you can loan and earn interest on?

this issue is virtually unknown in the wider public, by the way. if it were better known, people would be outraged.

Where has all that computer-generated-additional-profit gone? What % has been paid out to investors as dividends? What % has been re-invested to grow companies? What % has been hoarded as cash at companies?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 11:16:14 GMT -5 zipity said:

Ms Horner, who runs an 8 1/2-acre organic blueberry farm, said she tried to use the government's visa program to hire foreign workers, but it was too costly and time consuming.

She plans to stop growing organically and start using a machine to pick the berries.
They'll be "industrial grade" blueberries, I guess.

Ms. Horner has hit the nail squarely on the head. If the cost of legal labor is too high to allow your business to survive, then your only choice is to modify your business plan or go out of business. If Americans are satisfied with industrial grade blueberries then growing organic blueberries is a bad business decision. On the other hand, if Americans find that they are missing the flavor they get from organic blueberries then they will be willing to pay extra for it. Personally I have 2 rather large blueberry bushes that give us a massive harvest every year. It's more than enough to satisfy my cravings for blueberry pancakes, muffins, pie with plenty left over to jar up for a few treats over the winter.

Same holds true for the story about the Belmont stables, if they can't afford to pay a wage which will attract the labor they need then they should either change their business model or find a new business. Special guest worker programs aren't the answer, they only suck money from the US economy which is ultimately spent where ever the worker lives.

two quick things:

in the real world (the one where people make actual products that they sell to actual customers) labor value is what drives profits. if you can pay someone $7 and sell their labor for $10, you are doing pretty well. if you have to pay $10, not so well.

second, the worker generally lives where he works, so i am not sure what your final point is.

[billisonboard]

Jul 9, 2012 11:07:32 GMT -5 formerroomate99 said:

I indicated earlier that the parallels between deer/animal and human at times involve metaphor. When you move to another state, you do risk the life that you have known dying.

Oh boo freaking hoo. So now it is up to me to pay for someone to sit on their arse because I was willing to move for work and others are not?

...

lonewolf indicated that she was going to slowly reduce the supply she was providing the deer claiming that by doing so none would be hurt. I have a problem with such an application of psychological salve. Some deer will die due to her reducing the supply.

As far as the analogy goes, when we begin to reduce the supplies we are providing to individuals to meet their basic needs (and we will have to do so) , there will be deaths. Some will be literal. Some will be metaphoric. No "feel good salve" will change that. Attempts to apply same should be resisted.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 11:20:03 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Jul 9, 2012 11:14:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

productivity has continued to rise for the last 40 years (primarily due to that handy device called the computer), but wages associated with that labor have not. the windfall has gone to profit, not to workers. workers have compensated for the shortfall by adding debt, and wealthy people have loaned them the money. great deal for them. why pay in wages what you can loan and earn interest on?

this issue is virtually unknown in the wider public, by the way. if it were better known, people would be outraged.

Where has all that computer-generated-additional-profit gone?

indirect labor, for one.

What % has been paid out to investors as dividends?

in the case of AAPL, zero. AAPL has never paid a dividend, and probably never will

What % has been re-invested to grow companies?

in the case of AAPL, whatever % that has been reinvested has not been reinvested here. again, if we are talking about helping the US economy, i am not fathoming how this does it.

What % has been hoarded as cash at companies?

you would have to go case by case, but i believe that i recently read that cash levels in US businesses have never been higher.

[Driftr]

Jul 9, 2012 11:25:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

in the case of AAPL, zero. AAPL has never paid a dividend, and probably never will

FYI

CUPERTINO, California—March 19, 2012—Apple® today announced plans to initiate a dividend and share repurchase program commencing later this year.

Subject to declaration by the Board of Directors, the Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2012, which begins on July 1, 2012.

www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/03/19Apple-Announces-Plans-to-Initiate-Dividend-and-Share-Repurchase-Program.html

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 9, 2012 11:35:06 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Jul 9, 2012 11:25:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

in the case of AAPL, zero. AAPL has never paid a dividend, and probably never will

FYI

CUPERTINO, California—March 19, 2012—Apple® today announced plans to initiate a dividend and share repurchase program commencing later this year.

Subject to declaration by the Board of Directors, the Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2012, which begins on July 1, 2012.

www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/03/19Apple-Announces-Plans-to-Initiate-Dividend-and-Share-Repurchase-Program.html

I guess a 1.7% yield is better than nothing.

Or not. What are decent 1-year CDs going for these days? 1.15%?

[workpublic]

Incidentally, the US does have a legal migrant worker system, and I've yet to find an article that says anything positive about it.

mostly due to the employer having to foot the bill(rightly so)(housing, transport, medical, schooling) that the illegals use our social services for.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 12:09:07 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 9, 2012 11:35:06 GMT -5 Driftr said:

FYI



www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/03/19Apple-Announces-Plans-to-Initiate-Dividend-and-Share-Repurchase-Program.html

I guess a 1.7% yield is better than nothing.

Or not. What are decent 1-year CDs going for these days? 1.15%?

i guess that is what happens when the founder dies. AAPL becomes just another company.

[Driftr]

So back to the basic fundamental question posed on page 1.

How do we get those productivity gains made since the advent of the computer back into the hands of the US worker?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 13:05:33 GMT -5 Driftr said:

So back to the basic fundamental question posed on page 1.

How do we get those productivity gains made since the advent of the computer back into the hands of the US worker?

given the weakness of unions, i think the only way it happens is with government incentives for higher wages. i really don't see that happening, so i think we have a megatrend here.

it is making me a lot more fatalistic about our outlook.

[formerroomate99]

How do we get those productivity gains made since the advent of the computer back into the hands of the US worker?

Get US workers to actaully get off their arses and learn how to program them rather than having your IT departments taken over by folks from elsewhere? I graduated college just as the dot com bubble was bursting, still got a job as soon as I graduated, and have had a nice little career despite making a string of career mistakes.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Jul 7, 2012 9:09:36 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

I think Mitt Romney would do very well if he would come out and say very plainly "American businesses have nothing to fear if I am elected. Your taxes will not increase, we will not make harsher EPA standards, etc."

YES!!!! That is exactly what the businessman wants to hear.
But be aware, he is not as trusting as he once was, so there had better be actions behind those words.
I often wonder what kind of an impact boards like this have on the slow recovery. Posters here are advocating to other members less credit and more savings. Much like businesses have been doing, many are now getting out of debt and hanging onto cash, which can't be good for an economy fueled on credit.

Be even better if he meant it.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

My sincere congrats, dj, on your first interesting and provocative thread.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 9, 2012 13:40:24 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

My sincere congrats, dj, on your first interesting and provocative thread.

i don't do a lot of thread posting, Paul. i am sure i have done less than 2 per month since joining. i am guessing it is less than 1 per month, but i might be wrong.

[Driftr]

Jul 9, 2012 13:10:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 9, 2012 13:05:33 GMT -5 Driftr said:

So back to the basic fundamental question posed on page 1.

How do we get those productivity gains made since the advent of the computer back into the hands of the US worker?

given the weakness of unions, i think the only way it happens is with government incentives for higher wages. i really don't see that happening, so i think we have a megatrend here.

it is making me a lot more fatalistic about our outlook.

I don't know how we'd incentivize higher wages without making imports more comparable. Seems the only way to dis-incentivize imports is to make them cost-prohibitive.

So - Do we find a way to pull money out of companies that use cheap labor in countries without our EPA laws and give it to people sitting around because there aren't enough jobs for them, or do we somehow force those companies to build the products here and pay a wage that's high enough over subsistance that would encourage someone to get off their couch?

I've got no problem forcing the repatriation of jobs via trade war.

[Phoenix84]

The question is how do we get consumers to spend?

A difficult question I'm sure pondered by people smarter than me.

Job security is important for most people, if you think you might lose your job, you don't feel much like spending. Security is also important for businesses. With the direction the country is going, and the uncertain state of the economy, most people and businesses are circeling the wagons to see what happens. I realize you may not be spooked over the direction the country is going DJ, but many many people are.

For me personally, job security isn't much of an issue, however I lost quite a bit of money in the housing market. Had I not lost about 36k on a underwater Condo, I might have felt more inclined to spend some of it. Now, not only did I lose that money that could have beenb spent buying a new car or something, but it also will take a few years to get back to where I was, trying to rebuild the nest egg so to speak. So losing money in the stock market or housing market makes people not want to/able to spend. Short of giving us money, nothing can change that.

Another way to increase consumer spending is dropping the price of goods. However, that may cause the business not to make a profit.

Really, if you want people to consume more, it all boils down to two things, either pay people more and/or reduce how much things cost.