djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2012 11:32:26 GMT -5
we are a lot closer on this issue than it might appear at first glance. our solutions might not look the same, but we both see the problem. Yep. I've known that since the last debt limit increase when we started this. The only difference is you still have a little faith that those in a position to make change will make it before it is forced. I don't. Now I've moved to a 'what can I do to mitigate the damage when it's forced' and 'when will it be forced' mode. i think the change is already happening. the only thing missing from it is a willingness to raise taxes.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 7, 2012 11:39:32 GMT -5
Yep. I've known that since the last debt limit increase when we started this. The only difference is you still have a little faith that those in a position to make change will make it before it is forced. I don't. Now I've moved to a 'what can I do to mitigate the damage when it's forced' and 'when will it be forced' mode. i think the change is already happening. the only thing missing from it is a willingness to raise taxes. Would it surprise you to hear that outlays are up $24 billion for the first nine months of FY2012 versus the first nine months of FY2011?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2012 11:40:31 GMT -5
i think the change is already happening. the only thing missing from it is a willingness to raise taxes. Would it surprise you to hear that outlays are up $24 billion for the first nine months of FY2012 versus the first nine months of FY2011? a bit- but the mandatory cuts have not taken place yet. they were all pushed forward to 2013. we will see what happens then.....
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 7, 2012 11:58:37 GMT -5
Would it surprise you to hear that outlays are up $24 billion for the first nine months of FY2012 versus the first nine months of FY2011? a bit- but the mandatory cuts have not taken place yet. they were all pushed forward to 2013. we will see what happens then..... Of course they were pushed forward. Good news for current FY though. Tax receipts are doing better this year than last and the tax receipt increase is outpacing the spending increases. If we annualize the first 9 months of this year we'll only come out with a 1.206 trillion dollar deficit as opposed to the reported 1.327 trillion for all of FY'11. Can't wait to see all the advertising from both sides on how instrumental they were in that massive deficit reduction.The thing is though, I don't trust those numbers reported by Treasury. Or better said, I trust them as far as they go, but don't understand what the differences are between what they report and the changes in total Federal debt outstanding. I hope they have something to do with cash balances on hand, but haven't spent the time digging to know. For reference, the change in debt outstanding from 10/1/10-9/30/11 was 1.179 trillion. The change so far from 10/1/11-06/30/12 is 1.066 trillion. Annualize that and we come out to 1.421 trillion in additional debt for FY'12. Edited to strike out portions that were incorrect. I was looking at the budget column and erroneously used it as full fiscal 2011 results.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2012 12:05:49 GMT -5
the numbers are pretty fluid until 6-18 months after FYE. FYE for 2011 is just ending now.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 7, 2012 12:35:07 GMT -5
the numbers are pretty fluid until 6-18 months after FYE. FYE for 2011 is just ending now. Which numbers are you referring to? Hopefully not the debt to the penny numbers that are published by Treasury. I could understand shifting things around on the MTS after they were initially reported as budget to non-budget, but the total receipts and total outlays have got to be pretty close.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2012 12:54:20 GMT -5
the numbers are pretty fluid until 6-18 months after FYE. FYE for 2011 is just ending now. Which numbers are you referring to? Hopefully not the debt to the penny numbers that are published by Treasury. deficit numbers. they can't possibly know it until every penny of revenue and expense is calculated. that means that ALL departments have to report. that doesn't even start happening until the Fall, and continues well into the Winter.I could understand shifting things around on the MTS after they were initially reported as budget to non-budget, but the total receipts and total outlays have got to be pretty close. not really. it is not all flowing from one account. every division of government has to report.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 7, 2012 13:01:32 GMT -5
Fair enough. I'll just stick with changes in the debt to the penny as my measurement of how we're doing on the deficit side. And maybe in Sept'13 we can get an accurate portrayal of how the outlays in FY12 compared to the outlays reported for FY11 this September.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 7, 2012 13:19:24 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2012 13:41:49 GMT -5
this is an interesting summation. i think of the budget debate as an internal one, and the trade debate as an external one.
there is an interesting problem with simplifying the model that much, however, and that is the idea of "internal markets". the key to moving forward, and with a decent standard of living for all, is self sufficiency, which brings us back to the budget issue. but right behind it is whether we are servants of a greater master, or masters of our own fate. i would love to have that debate at a national level, but i don't see it happening any time soon. the real power behind our country is busy offshoring our future. they would rather that we don't notice.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2012 13:43:53 GMT -5
Driftr- i am going to give you a Kudo for 407. it is for little snippets like those that i come to this board almost every day.
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