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Post by Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ on Jul 8, 2012 8:18:08 GMT -5
Excessive Importation and Automation are two of the biggest job killers in my opinion. Automation has enabled the population to rise from an agrarian society to a post industrial society, with a lot of leisure time. Instead of washing clothing on a washboard by hand, we have washing machines. The population used to cook over an open fire, we've had gas/electric cooking ranges for over 75 years. The list is endless.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2012 8:18:17 GMT -5
"Good point! I recently heard that in 1992 we had 1 in 35 of working age on disability, now we have 1 in 15. How can we recover from a depression when so many are not working?"
How did it get fixed in 1981? I'd think this sort of thing would resolve itself over time. I would think the lack of participation in the labor force is the symptom, not the cause. Of course, dis-incentives to re-join the labor force don't help.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2012 8:19:07 GMT -5
"Automation has enabled the population...."
I always scratch my head when I hear people complain about automation like it's a bad thing.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 8, 2012 8:55:39 GMT -5
The recession ended. Despite all the present attempts to fudge the numbers, the current "recovery" isn't behaving properly because it isn't one—at least not a self-sustaining one. It's being purchased at the cost of trillions in monetary intervention per year. Intervention has thus far managed to arrest housing prices. There is some hiring (although as many have pointed out, not nearly enough to compensate for population growth in the US). Stock prices are holding thanks to the Fed via primary dealers. The various ISM numbers are printing in barely-expansionary territory. But none of the problems that caused the 2008 crash have gone away. And very soon the crisis in Europe will come to a head. The world will have that to contend with as well.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2012 9:07:34 GMT -5
No. The European crisis gets fixed about every 3 wks or so.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 8, 2012 9:28:34 GMT -5
As modern American life becomes more demanding intellectually, more and more Americans are not able to meet the demand. As the modern American workplace becomes more demanding of self-motivation, more and more Americans are not able to meet the demand.
We either import workers or, if possible, send the jobs overseas to tap into the segment of foreign populations who are able to meet either the intellectual or self-motivational demands.
It is a nice to think that if we remove supports for those not meeting those demands that they will get smart and be motivated. It is nice to think that they will do so in ways that we would wish. I tend to not be nice in this regard.
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Post by Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ on Jul 8, 2012 10:47:14 GMT -5
I tend to think that people will get motivated if allowed to get hungry. Well, the Dept of Agriculture is aggressively advertising the Food Stamp program....
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 8, 2012 10:51:28 GMT -5
No. The European crisis gets fixed about every 3 wks or so. How true.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Jul 8, 2012 10:52:11 GMT -5
I wonder if because of harder times consumers are not getting a bit smarter which means their consumption of products is becoming smarter.
Case in point..I am driving a 2001 Toyota Camry..my driving today is minimal..I believe i just hit 60,000 miles..the car is in good shape both mechanically and looks wise..keep cleaned and polished..and is quite comfortable and except for the desire of having something new, really there is no need for me to spend $ on a new car... so unless a major repair or accident possible they will bury me in this vehicle..
In talking with my son, he was thinking a while back of going for a new one... and i asked him why? He drives a $50,000 what ever..like a small SUV with all the whistles...it looks great and as with all the new cars , it's hard to tell if body work is in good shape how new or old one is..he will have it paid off this year and he admits it could go for years yet..he has admitted he is not going to trade it in....[ I suggested that he open up a seperate account and just deposit the amount he has been spending a month into it , think about $500 per, for a what ever..toward a new one, vacation, toy or waht ever since he doesn't need the $ for living expenses..} He in fact has mentioned to my grand son it will be probably turned over to him as his car when he gets his license ..at least two years away ..and this is a kid [son] who can well afford a new car..income wise..use to always want new..actually leased for years till bought this one out right ..
Possible this is the wave of the future here ..thus less purchasing by consumers being done..just a thought.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 8, 2012 10:54:35 GMT -5
I tend to think that people will get motivated if allowed to get hungry. I have no doubt it will motivate them to action. We simply need to be prepared to be ruthless in our response when they act in ways we don't wish. It is a solution.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2012 10:55:49 GMT -5
"We complain that automation is taking our jobs, but we have illegal's busting down our doors to take the jobs we refuse to do."
Ha. I've never put those two together. Good point.
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 8, 2012 11:11:27 GMT -5
... I get totally confused by this, too. We complain that automation is taking our jobs, but we have illegal's busting down our doors to take the jobs we refuse to do. ... Let me see if I can make it less confusing. We complain (There are people in this country who point out) that automation is taking our (reasonably well paying one location year round) jobs, but we have (while there are) illegal's busting down our doors to take the (transient) jobs we (those looking for full-time permanent jobs) refuse to do.
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fairlycrazy23
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Post by fairlycrazy23 on Jul 8, 2012 11:22:36 GMT -5
"Automation has enabled the population...." I always scratch my head when I hear people complain about automation like it's a bad thing. Whats next illegal robots?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:35:15 GMT -5
Which Depression? The Great Depression of 1929? (which lasted until 1942-ish) Or the Greater Depression in Darned Near Everything But Name of 2006? (which has lasted until 2012, so far) you are saying the current downturn compares to a stretch in history in which real GDP declined over 50%, Tony?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:36:24 GMT -5
"you didn't read the article, did you? the business climate has very little to do with our problem. the business climate is driven by consumers, and consumers are the problem." Perhaps true, but political uncertainty is still part of it. sure. and so are solar eclipses and weather patterns. but take it from me, if my customers are busting my balls for product, i hire. period. uncertainty be damned.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:37:19 GMT -5
I will start spending again when I see the gov address it's spending and debt issues. why does that have anything to do with your spending behavior?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:38:27 GMT -5
No, government is the problem. The consumer doesn't trust the government and that lack of trust is a big part of what is keeping consumers from spending. trust in what, exactly?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:39:27 GMT -5
you didn't read the article, did you? the business climate has very little to do with our problem. the business climate is driven by consumers, and consumers are the problem. please read the article, then comment. thanks. LoL! No problem man...I won't comment on your thread again. Have fun! thanks, Ratchetts. i am really just interested in comments on the article in the OP. i tried to be polite about it, didn't i?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:45:50 GMT -5
DJ, I think the problem is multi-leveled. The unemployment situation I blame on the fact that the global economy is now in full bloom. The Chinese bought 100 million cars last year, and their economy is full speed ahead. More developed countries such as us are going to suffer. it makes no sense to manufacture Cotton t-shirts in a country that is as expensive to live in as the US is. I am afraid that the higher unemployment is here to stay...at least until we come up with more high tech products to produce. i mostly agree with you vandal- but what if this happened: what if, instead of paying $12 for a shirt, the American consumer was willing to pay $20 for a shirt that was made in the US using US raw goods and US labor? HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING, what would this do for the US economy?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:46:40 GMT -5
Let me see if I have this right. I want to buy a new car, but, I don't trust the government, so I don't buy a new car? OOOOKAY! Fearing new taxes, job losses, an unbelievable deficit, and our out-of-control government, I sure wouldn't be spending money on a new car. I think I'd be better off spending my money on raising chickens. why? are you on welfare? if not, why not just worry about your OWN economy?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:49:18 GMT -5
OMG, Handyman! If you put a ban on imports, nobody in America could buy underwear! i think the magic variety is still made here. let's ask Mitt.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:55:31 GMT -5
To add to the problems of personal debt, public debt, trade deficits, fuel prices, etc. already mentioned, perhaps I'll point out that the labour participation rate—the ratio of working Americans to all Americans—has been in rapid decline since 2008 and is now threatening to breach all-time lows set in 1981. This is unemployment in its rawest form. Each percentage point dropped is 3 million more Americans dependent on the labour of others, and 3 million fewer Americans actually doing productive work. first of all, labor participation rate was much lower in 1960 than it was in 1981, so 1981 was not a record low. the recent LPR is as low as it HAS BEEN since 1981, however. www.bls.gov/mlr/1999/12/art1full.pdfthe reason that labor participation rose between 1960 and 2000 is, in a word: WOMEN. they went from about 30% participation to about 60% participation in those (40) years. men actually DECLINED during that period. and what we have seen since that time is that men have CONTINUED TO DECLINE, and that women have not increased their participation. this is a demographics problem, and a "megatrend".
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:57:24 GMT -5
To add to the problems of personal debt, public debt, trade deficits, fuel prices, etc. already mentioned, perhaps I'll point out that the labour participation rate—the ratio of working Americans to all Americans—has been in rapid decline since 2008 and is now threatening to breach all-time lows set in 1981. This is unemployment in its rawest form. Each percentage point dropped is 3 million more Americans dependent on the labour of others, and 3 million fewer Americans actually doing productive work. Good point! I recently heard that in 1992 we had 1 in 35 of working age on disability, now we have 1 in 15. How can we recover from a depression when so many are not working? this is again putting the cart before the horse. if the consumer spends, people will hire, and the recession will end. the question then becomes: HOW DO WE GET THE CONSUMER TO SPEND?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 11:59:21 GMT -5
As modern American life becomes more demanding intellectually, more and more Americans are not able to meet the demand. As the modern American workplace becomes more demanding of self-motivation, more and more Americans are not able to meet the demand. We either import workers or, if possible, send the jobs overseas to tap into the segment of foreign populations who are able to meet either the intellectual or self-motivational demands. It is a nice to think that if we remove supports for those not meeting those demands that they will get smart and be motivated. It is nice to think that they will do so in ways that we would wish. I tend to not be nice in this regard. assuming you are right, why would a national education standard that met the expectations of current and future demands NOT be a good idea?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 12:00:35 GMT -5
The recession ended. Despite all the present attempts to fudge the numbers, the current "recovery" isn't behaving properly because it isn't one—at least not a self-sustaining one. It's being purchased at the cost of trillions in monetary intervention per year. did you read the article in the OP? it has nothing to do with the CURRENT recession. this pattern has been developing since the 80's.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 12:01:57 GMT -5
"Automation has enabled the population...." I always scratch my head when I hear people complain about automation like it's a bad thing. agreed, bob. i think automation is our only possible way out of this problem, but this is kindof a long term off-topic opinion.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 12:03:10 GMT -5
I wonder if because of harder times consumers are not getting a bit smarter which means their consumption of products is becoming smarter. Case in point..I am driving a 2001 Toyota Camry..my driving today is minimal..I believe i just hit 60,000 miles..the car is in good shape both mechanically and looks wise..keep cleaned and polished..and is quite comfortable and except for the desire of having something new, really there is no need for me to spend $ on a new car... so unless a major repair or accident possible they will bury me in this vehicle.. In talking with my son, he was thinking a while back of going for a new one... and i asked him why? He drives a $50,000 what ever..like a small SUV with all the whistles...it looks great and as with all the new cars , it's hard to tell if body work is in good shape how new or old one is..he will have it paid off this year and he admits it could go for years yet..he has admitted he is not going to trade it in....[ I suggested that he open up a seperate account and just deposit the amount he has been spending a month into it , think about $500 per, for a what ever..toward a new one, vacation, toy or waht ever since he doesn't need the $ for living expenses..} He in fact has mentioned to my grand son it will be probably turned over to him as his car when he gets his license ..at least two years away ..and this is a kid [son] who can well afford a new car..income wise..use to always want new..actually leased for years till bought this one out right .. Possible this is the wave of the future here ..thus less purchasing by consumers being done..just a thought. an interesting thought. thanks for sharing. so, how can we get consumers to spend more?
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 8, 2012 12:28:03 GMT -5
As modern American life becomes more demanding intellectually, more and more Americans are not able to meet the demand. As the modern American workplace becomes more demanding of self-motivation, more and more Americans are not able to meet the demand. We either import workers or, if possible, send the jobs overseas to tap into the segment of foreign populations who are able to meet either the intellectual or self-motivational demands. It is a nice to think that if we remove supports for those not meeting those demands that they will get smart and be motivated. It is nice to think that they will do so in ways that we would wish. I tend to not be nice in this regard. assuming you are right, why would a national education standard that met the expectations of current and future demands NOT be a good idea? No reason to not have such a standard. Just realize that a percentage of the population will not meet that standard. The exact standard will determine what that percentage will be.
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 8, 2012 12:46:10 GMT -5
I have no doubt it will motivate them to action. We simply need to be prepared to be ruthless in our response when they act in ways we don't wish. It is a solution. They are acting in ways now that we don't wish. My deer story: We have been supplying a tasty orchard, good supply of water, shrubs and plenty of lawn areas to deer since 1971. Hence, the huge herd of deer we now how have occupying our property (I just saw two sets of new twins under our apple trees). Before we came along the herd would migrate with the seasons to where there was food and water. Now they live on our property year round, mostly because of the water we supply, a supply they normally wouldn't have. The herd has become so over populated that they have consumed all of our un-fenced plants, along with their natural habitat. They are now attempting to break into our fenced areas. If we have a bad Winter, many in the herd will die. In our attempt to help the deer, we inadvertently created this huge problem and we will now need to be the ones to correct it. Although, we easily could, we won't remedy it in one season. It will take years. We will start this season by slowly cutting back their water supply and forcing them to fend for themselves. It will break my heart but if we don't, most could die in one bad Winter. You do realize that deer have never created their own water source. They have always simply found a water source and stayed with it until it dried up or the population became too large for the source to sustain the herd. The fact that they found a very good one just means that they thrived in that location. If/when it is no longer there, they will move on. So you don't supply them the same amount of water. Some of them cross a road to find the water they need to survive. Some of them get killed. Some migrate to areas with other dangers. Some of them die. As it has always been.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 8, 2012 12:48:24 GMT -5
assuming you are right, why would a national education standard that met the expectations of current and future demands NOT be a good idea? No reason to not have such a standard. Just realize that a percentage of the population will not meet that standard. The exact standard will determine what that percentage will be. we can have a two track system. i don't see why we shouldn't do that, actually. some people are going to be incapable of A-Listing not for any reason other than some deficiency on their part, which they are incapable of overcoming. there are TONS of jobs for B listers. the key, imo, is not to have society as a whole slip to the B list.
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