Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2011 20:50:24 GMT -5
To spending like the good old days?
Today we went to visit my parents in NJ and stopped at IKEA to get something for my mom, Crate & Barrell and Pottery Barn for gifts (2 weddings in the next 3 weeks) and all the parking lots at each location were full. At the last mall location I had to stay in the car and let my wife go in and took me about 20 minutes to find a parking space.
My wife say she ran into the same issues last week when she went to the mall with her cousin and she said that she told her cousin that maybe the recession is over.
I told her I don't think the recession is over per say but the people that were not affected by it (no job loss, freeze in pay raises) got tired of savings diet or no longer feels guilty of spending while some family members / friends are unemployed.
So what do you say with the increase in spending: - recession is over - or people just got tired of savings and no longer feels guilty of spending
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Catseye
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Post by Catseye on Jun 25, 2011 21:30:02 GMT -5
I think some (many) Americans can only go so long without spending, then they get bored/frustrated/fed up with the frugal lifestyle and start running up the credit cards again.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Jun 25, 2011 21:42:37 GMT -5
I agree with catseye. Some people can be "good" with their budget for only so long, and then think they deserve a splurge. In my area, the people who are keeping the economy going right now are the seniors: the one's who have pensions. Can't imagine what things are going to be like when there are no more pensions, & people seriously have nothing to spend in retirement.
We had some really good sales in my area this week too. Even the big retailers have deals up to 70% off right now (and it's not even clearance)! So I think stores are still hurting.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Jun 25, 2011 21:48:22 GMT -5
I think it's a little of both. My city has 2 companies that employ about half the county, and neither company was really affected by the recession, so some people around here never stopped spending. And those who have are getting tired of it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2011 10:06:00 GMT -5
Many consumers, that had steady work, paid down debt and/or built savings out of fear for their own situation. As "the new normal" sets in and their companies are making strong profits, they feel better about their own situation. Also, there was a lot of deferred purchasing the last 4 years. Just look at new car sales and what that has done to used car prices. If we could just get a strong quarter of good news on unemployment, retail sales, and GDP, I think people would really start spending again.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2011 10:50:12 GMT -5
There is also probably some buying for things that had been put off and can no longer be put off. I know DH and I need to buy some cloths. It can't be put off any longer, our old cloths have gotten too worn. We put off shopping because we didn't want to part with the money (adding to savings) and both of us HATE cloths shopping.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Jun 26, 2011 10:57:08 GMT -5
Even if you have 8% unemployment, that still leaves 92% employed. That's a lot of people.
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dancinmama
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Post by dancinmama on Jun 26, 2011 11:26:52 GMT -5
Even if you have 8% unemployment, that still leaves 92% employed. That's a lot of people. Yes, but we don't have 8% unemployment. Officially, it's still about 9.1% and that doesn't count all the people who are underemployed (would rather work full time than part time) and the people who have given up looking for work.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2011 11:41:22 GMT -5
What pooks said. I put off a slew of stuff while I tried to get my finances in order. Now that I'm ready to take care of some of the stuff I've put off, I seem to be afraid to make decisions. Never had that problem before. LOL And I HATE shopping too.
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bman
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Post by bman on Jun 26, 2011 11:55:27 GMT -5
Yes, there is still a relatively high unemployment rate, but most people still have jobs. For many people that are still working the same jobs they were several years ago, very little has changed. I suppose some may have become more cautious for a while, but for the most part it is business as usual. And why shouldn't it be?
If you already had your financial house in order and you are working the same job, making the same income, then carry on. I think this is the case for many or most people. They just aren't as vocal about their situations as those who have been affected by the recession.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Jun 26, 2011 12:25:10 GMT -5
We just went to a very fancy wedding/reception last night. Both kids just graduated college, both have jobs, both sets of parents are just fine and could afford the shindig. Bought the usual Williams Sonoma crap (get a discount.)
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phil5185
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Post by phil5185 on Jun 26, 2011 12:55:11 GMT -5
Yes, there is still a relatively high unemployment rate, but most people still have jobs. For many people that are still working the same jobs they were several years ago, very little has changed. This is what we see. The 90% that have jobs didn't get raises, but their income stream is the same. Their house may have gone 'upsidedown' but their house payment didn't change. And inflation has been low (even tho gasoline and a couple others get high media attn). So - business as usual for many people, the Malls are crowded, waiting lines at restaurants.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Jun 26, 2011 13:11:08 GMT -5
Yup, same here.
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phil5185
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Post by phil5185 on Jun 26, 2011 14:48:58 GMT -5
We were just over at the Apple Store - 47 people in the store at 11:30 on a Sunday morning - LOL, what recession?
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Jun 26, 2011 14:52:13 GMT -5
DF just bought one of those over-priced suckers!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2011 17:01:53 GMT -5
I've been checking the "Cheesecake Factory Index" for the last few years. This index is how long the Saturday night wait is at my local Cheesecake Factory. In 2006/2007, it was 60+ minutes without fail from 5-8pm. 18 months ago it was 10-15 minutes. Now it is 25-30 minutes. As soon as I call up Jim Cramer tomorrow and toss a couple boooyas around this information, this news is going to spike the markets. Go long tomorrow.
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Poppet
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Post by Poppet on Jun 26, 2011 20:21:33 GMT -5
"Cheesecake Factory Index" ;D LOL
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dcmetrocrab
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Post by dcmetrocrab on Jun 26, 2011 20:48:06 GMT -5
Mall parking lot appeared fairly busy, but once in, medium traffic. Also, very few people appeared to be buying much (noticed not many were not leaving the stores with shopping bags). June is usually when the mid-year sales happen, but not much going on this year. Seems stores have kept their inventory in check, so nothing to mark down.
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daisylu
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Post by daisylu on Jun 27, 2011 4:57:01 GMT -5
Or, maybe some people met their goals and feel better about spending. For instance, I had an aggressive savings goal that I wanted to meet. I was determined to get there, so I "starved" myself on some other things for a while. Meeting the magic number that I wanted freed up a lot of cash that I have felt comfortable spending on anything my heart desires.
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SVT
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Post by SVT on Jun 27, 2011 7:44:20 GMT -5
I thought the recession was declared over a while ago?
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resolution
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Post by resolution on Jun 27, 2011 7:53:41 GMT -5
We are buying a TV and a stove next weekend, so this weekend we went to a number of stores to look at them. In every store except Walmart we were attacked by a hungry mob of salespeople. We didn't see a lot of other shoppers, except in Walmart and they weren't in the big TV section.
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philly1
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Post by philly1 on Jun 27, 2011 11:40:10 GMT -5
I think it's just frugal folks enjoying the free AC.
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on Jun 27, 2011 11:44:51 GMT -5
Even if you have 8% unemployment, that still leaves 92% employed. That's a lot of people. I think it's also not just about the unemployment "number", it's also about the trend. When unemployment is rapidly rising there are lots of people worried about losing their jobs and so cut spending, not because they can't afford to spend, but because they are worried about the immediate future. When unemployment trending levels off those same people feel more empowered to spend as the fear of losing their job subsides.
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dancinmama
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Post by dancinmama on Jun 27, 2011 12:12:02 GMT -5
Even if you have 8% unemployment, that still leaves 92% employed. That's a lot of people. I think it's also not just about the unemployment "number", it's also about the trend. When unemployment is rapidly rising there are lots of people worried about losing their jobs and so cut spending, not because they can't afford to spend, but because they are worried about the immediate future. When unemployment trending levels off those same people feel more empowered to spend as the fear of losing their job subsides. I know that we have pulled back on our spending. We're not too overly concerned that DH might lose his job (although anything is possible), but we always tend to pull back when the economy is bad. We did not spend much last year and have not so far this year, but I think we're getting ready to spend a little - maybe go out to eat more or buy some things that we've been putting off.
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msgumby
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Post by msgumby on Jun 27, 2011 17:04:28 GMT -5
We've spent more during the recession. We aren't big spenders, both have good/stable jobs, and didn't really need to cut anything. But, during the recession, I've seen tons of good bargins/coupons/discounts that we are more than willing to take advantage of. My dad is in a similar position. He's somewhat recently retired, and while his accounts have been hit by the recession, he has a good pension and a paid off house. He's been traveling constantly the past few years because of all the good travel deals he's finding. I doubt most of the people at the mall are in those situations, but it's how we've reacted to the recession.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 27, 2011 17:17:07 GMT -5
I have a different theory on why the mall was packed. Around here, we have lost TONS of stores. There are dozens of empty strip malls on corners all over the city. Most places have closed up completely, but some places moved to be near a store that is surviving. If I want to shop, the number of places I have to go to is smaller. So, even if the number of people shopping is down 10%, if the destinations for shopping is down 25% it feels like there are so many more people shopping - because they are all doing it in fewer places.
I have no data to back this up - just the casual appearance of empty store fronts all over the place.
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DVM gone riding
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Post by DVM gone riding on Jun 27, 2011 19:36:23 GMT -5
on the idea of "cheese cake index" one of the vet schools I am familiar with has a "colic surgery" index. When only 6/10 horses that are processed by the school and need surgery get it times are tough. when 9/10 get it times are good--like most things they never get a 100%
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blackcard
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Post by blackcard on Jun 27, 2011 20:05:30 GMT -5
According to the business section of Google, May 2011 consumer spending was actually down from May 2010. Must be regional affluence or lack of.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 28, 2011 12:06:45 GMT -5
I'm so going to the mall this weekend. I am going to go through my closet and throw out everything I never wear, and then I'm going to count the empty hangers, and go to the mall and buy that many items of clothes. I'm sick, sick, sick of my wardrobe!
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jkapp
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Post by jkapp on Jun 28, 2011 12:14:39 GMT -5
To spending like the good old days? Today we went to visit my parents in NJ and stopped at IKEA to get something for my mom, Crate & Barrell and Pottery Barn for gifts (2 weddings in the next 3 weeks) and all the parking lots at each location were full. At the last mall location I had to stay in the car and let my wife go in and took me about 20 minutes to find a parking space. My wife say she ran into the same issues last week when she went to the mall with her cousin and she said that she told her cousin that maybe the recession is over. I told her I don't think the recession is over per say but the people that were not affected by it (no job loss, freeze in pay raises) got tired of savings diet or no longer feels guilty of spending while some family members / friends are unemployed. So what do you say with the increase in spending: - recession is over - or people just got tired of savings and no longer feels guilty of spending 1. People saved during the worst part of the recession, and now those savings are burning a hole in their pockets (remember that before the recession people generally had negative savings, so they weren't used to actually having a balance of money to play with) and/or 2. It's summer and they are hanging around the air conditioning in the stores so they don't need to pay for their own A/C
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