Reading between the lines from NYFRB..QE3 july

[bimetalaupt]

Frank the
What more can I say.. QE2 will end in middle July not June and they there is more.. What are your thoughts on the language of this statement!!
" Completion of $600 Billion Purchase Program
July 6, 2011 July 7, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 01/15/2014 - 06/30/2015 $2.5 - $3.5 billion
July 11, 2011 July 12, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 07/31/2015 - 12/31/2016 $2.5 - $3.5 billion

The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on July 13, 2011. At that time, the Desk will also publish information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above. "

I READ QE3!!!

Just a thought,
Bruce the

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 14, 2011 21:38:44 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

NO...NO...NO...there is NO QE3...this is QE 2.5

Frank the ,
Dudley do Write did a Revo Repo of 2.25 Billion for one day and 3.199 Billion with an offer of about $30 billion...Looks like they are tiring to make this last until next meeting..

You said QE2.5...Well we need the 10% savings up from 6% ...as before it is going to be interesting to see how you can develop a willing system with bonds lower return then inflation.. I remember when all I had to do in times like these was call my father to see what the economist at the bank had to say during one on one talks...

Like they say in the Farm country.. My tractor is getting no traction M1 is all about power and no traction.. Not much in the way of GDP growth.. Up 11% with almost zero effect of long term growth.. We need more and better power plants and more natural gas to make more CNG..

Just a thought,
Bi metal Au Pt

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[bimetalaupt]

Jun 14, 2011 21:38:44 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

NO...NO...NO...there is NO QE3...this is QE 2.5

Frank,
after checking with Louie we that calculated we needed more valuable assets then Greek bonds..Esp where the true value is know not a fantacy number.. Mark to fantacy as Ben B. said" I Just want to know: what the DAM things are worth."

Here is his thoughts on liquid assets with fantastic market upside ..What do you think?

Give Frank a Beer!! and some ribs

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

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[resume]

I READ QE3!!!

NO...NO...NO...there is NO QE3...this is QE 2.5

My sights are now on August- September.
In the mean time...summer is all too short. Time to BBQ and uncork some red.

[usaone]

Still hoping no QE 2.5 or 3.0. ;D

Lets see what M3 does over the next 8 weeks. Its much better than after the end of QE1 last year.

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 15, 2011 8:58:33 GMT -5 usaone said:

Still hoping no QE 2.5 or 3.0. ;D

Lets see what M3 does over the next 8 weeks. Its much better than after the end of QE1 last year.

USA Won,
Judging by the increase in the increase of M3 ( Delta or 2nd derivative of Position) thing are getting better..BY SEP 2011... Small caps should be the place to bet for the next 24 months.

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

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[bimetalaupt]

Jun 15, 2011 8:51:22 GMT -5 @resume said:

I READ QE3!!!

NO...NO...NO...there is NO QE3...this is QE 2.5

My sights are now on August- September.
In the mean time...summer is all too short. Time to BBQ and uncork some red.

Chopper,
I had a long talk with Walter D. about trading.. He told me most floor traders do not trade by buy and hold.. Less cost in the long run .. esp with 90% income tax ( 1950-1962) and most of the news is in the price of the stock anyway. I posed the long term M3 graft.. Great change in the change over the last year.. We could see some real growth in M3 if our banks would get all the capital they need.. We need risk taker and they need profits..

Well , you do not pay taxes on stocks you do not sell.. but the dividend are nice but cost you money.. Most good stocks will sell for two time book so a $1.00 in earnings that the firm keeps should be worth $2.00 in a good market. Well we a 97% odds that the high VIX will make a good buying period in Sep-Oct!!

Just thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ben did say that having a US institution buying the debt is better than others demanding higher interest rates for the debt.

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 15, 2011 23:49:59 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Ben did say that having a US institution buying the debt is better than others demanding higher interest rates for the debt.

A++,
The USD in your pocket is an interest free loan to Ben.B. and Company.. aka Federal Reserve Bank of New York...The Treasury get to keep about 90%+ of that money: back as a rebate on rent of the $$$.
Banks are now getting more long term money (M3) to lend.. Cost on Jumbo CD's is less do to lower capital cost and less FDIC cost on super Jumbo CD.. Now for some loans to Small firms
Bi

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The Treasury get to keep about 90%+ of that money: back as a rebate on rent of the $$$.

Exactly, a point that needs to be made more often.

I agree lets see some of the little guys get the $$$$ now!

[usaone]

Trickle down economics........

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yep, lets see what happens now that the USD has trickled all the way down to the bottom.

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 16, 2011 22:09:30 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Yep, lets see what happens now that the USD has trickled all the way down to the bottom.

A++,
That is what happen in Germany during the Depression of 1873.. The D-Mark went down and Germany gained the upper hand in Industrial development through lower wages and other cost.

This is about the time when the US Steel and Rail Roads started making the USA the largest industrial country in the world..Same Depression.. Called the Long Depression but we excepted before Germany did.. Made us both vast exporters of heavy industrial good like Expansion Steam power .. GE was formed with the addition of Edison General Electric to Thomson-Houston..

Great time unless you were working on the floor of the plant.This was also a period of great American savings thought special Insurance that paid retirement.. benevolent societies... Germany under Bismarck was the first with Federal German sponsored Social Security programs .. AT first German plan gave the retired 100% replacement income.. But only one in 15 made it to retirement age much less were in the program for more then 10 years.


Just a thought,
Bruce AKA Bi Metal Au Pt

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great time unless you were working on the floor of the plant.

Exaclty, how bad were American workers treated then, just look to the third world..

AT first German plan gave the retired 100% replacement income.. But only one in 15 made it to retirement age much less were in the program for more then 10 years.

Which is why, AT FIRST, it seemed like a good idea. This was also before we had any idea on how our medical advancements were going to work out. I was thinking a couple days back. the baby boom didn't happen because of an anomaly in society, before the 40s and 50s you had eight kids because usually only three of them made to age 18. It was science and technology catching up with society that caused it.

Let's just be glad that Paul W set up a system that works, or else there would be a very good chance that you would just replace USA with China and German with the USA in that 1867 story.

[bimetalaupt]

A++,
K4U.. About the long depression... The Long Depression was a worldwide economic crisis, felt most heavily in Europe and the United States, which had been experiencing strong economic growth fueled by the Second Industrial Revolution and the conclusion of the American Civil War. At the time, the episode was labeled the Great Depression, and held that title until the Great Depression of the 1930s. Though a period of general deflation and low growth began in 1873, (ending about 1896) , it did not have the severe "economic retrogression [and] spectacular breakdown" of the latter Great Depression.[1]

Because of the large increases in U.S. industrial production, GNP and real product per capita, economic historians have questioned whether there was really a U.S. depression in anything other than profits.[2]

It was most notable in Western Europe and North America, at least in part because reliable data from the period is most readily available in those parts of the world. The United Kingdom is often considered to have been the hardest hit; during this period it lost some of its large industrial lead over the economies of Continental Europe.[3] While it was occurring, the view was prominent that the economy of the United Kingdom had been in continuous depression from 1873 to as late as 1896 and some texts refer to the period as the Great Depression of 1873–96.[4]

In the United States, economists typically refer to the Long Depression as the Depression of 1873–79, kicked off by the Panic of 1873, and followed by the Depression of 1893, book-ending the entire period of the wider Long Depression.[5] The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the contraction following the panic as lasting from October 1873 to March 1879. At 65 months, it is the longest-lasting contraction identified by the NBER, eclipsing the Great Depression's 43 months of contraction.[6][7] After the panic, the economy entered a period of rapid growth, with the U.S. growing at the fastest rates ever in its history in the 1870s and 1880s.[8]

It was all about a bank failure in Austria that started it...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

True that it was "world wide" but

"It was most notable in Western Europe and North America, at least in part because reliable data from the period is most readily available in those parts of the world."

Also we can't overlook the fact that there was NO way to regulate the currency in that time frame. Counterfeit money, the ability to print and pay with whatever, kept things in a state of confusion for a long time. The industrial expansion that occurred during th 1870 and 80's is exactly what we are seeing in China right now. Expansions and infrastructer to the whole country, so it was an inevitability at that point.

It was also the bankers that got all the interest on the loans that the UST was making, not the UST. While this was good for the bankers, having panic after panic, wasn't good for anyone, and was leaving the US more and more vulnerably for another attack from the British.

Again brings us back to Paul W..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Paul Warburg became known as a persuasive advocate of central banking in America, in 1907 publishing the pamphlets "Defects and Needs of Our Banking System" and "A Plan for A Modified Central Bank". His efforts were successful in 1913 with the founding of the Federal Reserve System. He was appointed a member of the first Federal Reserve Board by President Woodrow Wilson, serving until 1918.

In 1919 he founded and became first chairman of the American Acceptance Council. He organized and became the first chairman of the International Acceptance Bank of New York in 1921. International Acceptance was acquired by the Bank of the Manhattan Company in 1929, with Warburg becoming chairman of the combined organization.

He became a director of the Council on Foreign Relations at its founding in 1921, remaining on the board until his death. From 1921 to 1926 Warburg was a member of the advisory council of Federal Reserve Board, serving as president of the advisory council in 1924-26. He was also a trustee of the Institute of Economics, founded in 1922; when it was merged into the Brookings Institution in 1927, he became a trustee of the latter, serving until his death.[8][9]

Warburg was notable on March 8, 1929, for warning of the disaster threatened by the wild stock speculation then rampant in the United States, foretelling the crash which occurred in October of that year.[10][11]