We had a thread on the old MT board about Iceland awhile ago. Some posters said that Iceland should refuse to pay the debt to bond speculators. Other posters said that not paying would ruin Iceland. Turns out the former was correct.
I have a friend that is a personal bankruptcy attorney. She said that when a person finds themselves in debt and unable to repay then they should claim bankruptcy, the faster the better, and avoid getting into that pickle again. I guess the same would apply to sovereign debt that can't be repaid:
dailyreckoning.com/a-word-of-advice-to-financial-authorities/A Word of Advice to Financial Authorities
By Bill Bonner
....We’re not in the habit of giving advice here in The Daily Reckoning...Still, in the spirit of civic betterment, today exceptionally, we offer a bit of advice to financial authorities all over the world. In a word:
Default!
When you have more debt than you can pay, it is always best to own up…default…hang your head…say you’re sorry…promise not to do it again…
…and go about your business. And do it as soon as possible....
Again, governments in the Old World have borrowed and promised too much. But rather than default honestly and openly, (forcing the people who lent imprudently to take the losses) they try to put the burden of the losses onto the innocent citizen…and the unenlightened investor.
He will pay higher taxes. He will get less in services. His money…his savings…his pension – all will be devalued by inflation. If he has stocks…they too will likely be sold off in the financial crises to come.
But let’s look at another, more recent example. Iceland
You may remember, two years ago Iceland was a mess. Its banks had borrowed, lent, and speculated recklessly. Iceland’s feds squirmed and winced. At first, the government decided it would do what Ireland was doing. It would rescue the banks…that is, it would bail out the banks’ lenders with public funds.
But when the public caught on to what was going on, a referendum was held. Voters rejected the bailout as if they were voting against sin itself. More than 90% of voters cast ballots against a taxpayer bailout. We were impressed. We wrote about it. The “Patsy Revolt of 2009” we called it.
Unable to stick the voters with the losses, the government left the banks to default.
Was this the end of the world? Did Iceland slip below the North Atlantic waves…joining the Titanic on the chilly, dark bottom of the sea? Did commerce break down? Did the Icelandic money become worthless? Was this the “end of time”…the apocalypse forecast in the Bible?
Nope.
“Iceland is doing better than anyone could have hoped,” reports Bloomberg.
Inflation fell from 18% down to 5% last year. The cost of insuring Icelandic debt fell to less than a third of the price in early 2009. Unemployment is barely 6%.
“Thanks to its rescue plan,” says the IMF, “the recession in Iceland has been less deep than expected and not worse than in the other countries deeply affected.”
How did they achieve this? Are the Icelanders smarter than the Europeans?
Not exactly. They tried the typical dead-end solution. The trouble was, no one would lend Iceland more money. And once the public revolted, after realizing that it would be left holding the bag, the Icelandic feds had no choice. They had exhausted all the bad ideas. They were forced to go with a good one.
The foreign debt was consolidated into a few banks…which then went broke. The remaining banks were left intact, ready to keep the country’s financial machinery in business.
Lesson learned: got too much debt? Default quickly. Make it clean. Make it fast. Make it work.
There. That’s all the advice we’re going to give today. Any European or American government that would like more details could contact us on our mobile phone…if we had one.