Corn futures, to the moon, Alice

[Value Buy]

Well it looks like record futures prices today and this summer for corn.
Government projections say planned production will be down for planting due to weather conditions, and supply on hand may disappear entirely.

[decoy409]

Value Buy, I take it you have seen the 'actual' reported results thus far?

On May 23, the American Farm Bureau Federation released the following statement from its national office:

AFBF Estimates 3.6 M Ag Acres Hit by Floods

Washington, D.C. May 23—After learning firsthand from state Farm Bureaus about recent flooding devastation in the southern United States, the American Farm Bureau Federation now estimates that nearly 3.6 million acres of farmland has been impacted by the natural disaster. On a Farm Bureau nationwide call late last week, states also reported an estimated 40% of this year's rice crop has been affected.

Arkansas topped the list with a million acres affected, including 300,000 acres of rice and 120,000 acres of wheat. Illinois was estimated to have 500,000 acres of farmland under water, with Mississippi and Missouri coming in at 600,000 and 570,000 acres, respectively. Tennessee reported 650,000 acres and Louisiana was pegged at 280,000 acres.

"There is no doubt about it, the effect of the flooding on farmers and ranchers is being felt deeply across the south," said AFBF Chief Economist Bob Young. "One is reminded of the '93 or '95 floods in terms of scale of affected area."

"But, said Young, it's critical that the government acts quickly to rebuild the levees and allow producers to make plans for the future.

"In many of these areas, agriculture is the major economic driver for the region," said Young. "While some may be able to get a crop in the ground this year, we need to also think about the long-term economic health of these farms and communities."

"Without the levees in place to protect homes and farms, however, it may be hard to make those investments," added Young.


Wheat: Southern Drought; Northern Cold, Wet
In the southern Winter wheat zone of the High Plains (where the grain is sown in the Fall, and harvested now), harvesting is underway in Texas and Oklahoma, where intense drought has reduced yields, or even destroyed the crop. A large area of western Texas, which last year produced just over 103 million bushels, will be lucky to harvest 23 million this year (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture yield estimate, which may be high). Many acres have been opened for cattle, or plowed under for insurance purposes.

In Kansas, where the harvest begins next month, the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers met last week, and compiled what they called a "mixed bag" estimate, at best, of reduced yields, widespread "abandonment" (farmers opting to file insurance claims for a failed crop). Otherwise, there are a few reports of good stands of wheat. Since then, this week's torrential storms and tornadoes hit.

Wheat fields in the Mississippi Delta region have suffered huge damage from heavy rains and floods. In Arkansas, 22% of Winter wheat will likely be abandoned as too wet to harvest, on about 120,000 acres. Parts of the Georgia wheatlands have also been hit. Moreover, a yield-reducing fungus has spread in the wet conditions in the South. Known as stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis), it can reduce yields by 40% on vulnerable wheat varieties, if not caught and treated quickly.

Proceed to the far northern part of the continental wheat belt, where the grain is planted in the Spring, and the sowing has been delayed by prolonged wet and cold conditions, or even floods. Grain planting in Canada is only about 53% complete, compared with a customary 75% at this time. The Canadian Wheat Board issued a statement May 24 on the situation: "Farmers in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba are struggling to get crop in the ground. Progress in these areas was pushed further back over the weekend by moderate to heavy rain (15-65 mm) that brought seeding to a halt."

The North American wheat losses are amplified as a world crisis, by major losses in other wheat-production centers, such as France, which is hard hit by drought; there is also the global impact of last Summer's drought in the Eurasian wheat belt. Last week, the Ukrainian Parliament voted up a measure to continue wheat export restrictions.

A drastic wheat shortage is in the making. Earlier this year, the International Grains Council forecast a fall in world wheat output this year, to below 672 million metric tons, down from 682 mmt in 2010 and 2009, but now, the direction is going below 660 mmt or far lower.

Corn: Delayed Planting, Ruined Fields
In the "river states" of the Ohio Basin (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee) and the Lower Mississippi (Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana), hundreds of counties have seen their corn and soybean crops delayed, damaged, or ruined.

The one piece of deceptively "good" news is that in the center of the corn belt, in Illinois and Iowa—the latter being the single largest corn state in the nation, accounting for 19% of the annual crop)—farmers report that their corn has been planted or replanted in time, and today looks good. But this can neither compensate for losses in the other states, nor is it sane to just wait and see whether the next three months bring perfect weather for Iowa and Illinois corn, and call that a national food security policy. In particular, under the Royal-Green Regime, 40% of Iowa corn is now going to ethanol, not food! Iowa is also the largest pork and shell-egg producer state in the nation. Bacon and eggs will be a luxury of the past very soon.

In Ohio, which ranks between being the fifth and eighth biggest corn-producing state, has been so soaked, that only 11% of the fields were planted as of May 22, compared with over 80% in a decent year. Some farmers may try to switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. Others are lining up insurance claims, for "prevented planting."

This situation is playing out in many other corn counties, outside the central corn belt (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois), making for a guaranteed fall in national production. In turn, this is an international disaster, given that U.S. output represents 40% of total annual world corn production.

Lies and Chiseling
The latest monthly USDA crop forecast, released May 12 in the midst of the severe storm and flood damage (WASDE, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) was a travesty for understating the impact of the flooding, droughts, hail, and other hits on U.S. crops. All the grain production figures were overstated. The USDA lied. Even the low-lifes in the financial media are ridiculing the May 12 report, as presenting harvest estimates that are obviously way too high. An Australian news service, farmonline.com.au, ran quotations from various USDA critics, such as a commodity analyst for Commonwealth Bank, who said, "The USDA's estimate of US winter wheat production appears too high, as do its forecasts for Canadian and Black Sea wheat production next season...."

Meanwhile, the United States is cutting budgets. Among these spending cuts are supports vital to weather monitoring and forewarning (a 30% cut in funding of the National Weather Service), disaster response, and emergency aid to farming to protect and assure the food supply.

For more than a year, the White House has waged war against the nation's leading Earth-observation and -exploration capabilities in space, including its potential collaboration with other spacefaring nations. Now, the Administration has crippled some observation satellites already in space, and pushed off and cancelled others.

By cuts in NASA's and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) budget in FY2011, and again for FY2012, three satellite arrays crucial for monitoring Sun, solar wind, and earthquake-precursor activity have been lost in the recent period: GOES 11 as of Feb. 28, when its data stopped being collected; DESDynI, which did not get launched; and the French-American Demeter, shut off in December 2010 after actually detecting precursor activity to the Haiti earthquake of February 2010.

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), in its FY2012 budget message, told NASA to indefinitely "defer" the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) constellation of four satellites. It was designed for extremely precise data collection on solar radiation's interaction with the Earth.

Beyond this, the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) funding was cut out of the FY 2012 budget entirely, with "very serious consequences to our ability to do severe storm warning, long-term weather forecasting, search and rescue, and good weather forecasts" for the polar regions, according to testimony of the Administrator of NOAA.
(end)

I think I like the general everyday media reports better...not.

[decoy409]

Of course with that report above out comes WS Up! Profit Up! Speculation Rules!

[decoy409]

But 'AFBF' report above,why is a good one,for speculators.

[Small Biz Owner]

The corn supply will not disappear. The corn will simply go to the highest bidders or buyers. Free markets at work.

[lifewasgood]

Inflation,

[Virgil Showlion]

There is no food inflation. Just 'transitional' pricing.

A little birdy told me.

[lifewasgood]

[lifewasgood]

Good one Virgil

[Small Biz Owner]

"Let them eat cake"

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 9, 2011 11:50:22 GMT -5 Small Biz Owner said:

"Let them eat cake"

still have some deer corn left over from last year..deer eat the garden next to the deer feeder, hot hot hot peppers and all..corn and molasses... for the hogs.. I thought that was the 45/70 for the hogs..

Well hunting will be $$$$ this year.. So much for cheap sour mash for the hogs.

Bi Metal Au Pt

Attachments:

[decoy409]

Good one Virgil!

[decoy409]

Patstab, the conjure of speculation is simply amazing,

'pleth·o·ra (plthr-) KEY

NOUN:

A superabundance; an excess.'

seekingalpha.com/article/241464-china-and-russia-boost-monsanto-open-multiple-agriculture-investment-opportunities

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 9, 2011 13:39:19 GMT -5 @patstab said:

There is no food inflation. Just 'transitional' pricing.

I thought that was good also, transitory. Problem is once grocery prices raise or any prices they never go down again.

Per the WSJ Russia is exporting wheat again so that will help the world shortage. However, we have countries like Mexico buying our corn 2 years out, said they have not seen that before. We definitely will sell it to the highest bidder and that's likely to be another country.

I have 50 pounds of wheat, probably need 25 of corn, though I don't use as much of it.

I was up at the feed store buying feed for my chickens and the 80 year old owner, said he has never seen anything like this in his life. He said stock ponds are drying up and a couple of guys were in saying they are selling their herds, one had 60 head, he didn't know how many the other had. But that's just starting, here in our part of Texas we are in severe drought conditions.

Meat, corn products, and wheat products are going to go sky high in the coming months. Then it takes awhile to rebuild herds if they do and for another growing season to produce so its a year or more away to improve.

Pat,
Well, Please do not tell that to the Bundesbank.. Thing in Germany are real bad with food taken off the shelves. Well farmers would make a $$$$ or Euro this year.. That would be good for the Recovery:Worldwide.. I know when Farming starts to make good money everyone talk about price of food but when we have poor income from Farming .. no one cares..

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Attachments:

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I know when Farming starts to make good money everyone talk about price of food but when we have poor income from Farming .. no one cares..

Exactly, no gives a rats ass about how hard it is for farmers as long as there food is as cheap as it can get.. Get ready people, the farmer is going to get paid, it's all about the business now!

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2011 13:39:19 GMT -5 @patstab said:

There is no food inflation. Just 'transitional' pricing.

I thought that was good also, transitory. Problem is once grocery prices raise or any prices they never go down again.

Per the WSJ Russia is exporting wheat again so that will help the world shortage. However, we have countries like Mexico buying our corn 2 years out, said they have not seen that before. We definitely will sell it to the highest bidder and that's likely to be another country.

I have 50 pounds of wheat, probably need 25 of corn, though I don't use as much of it.

I was up at the feed store buying feed for my chickens and the 80 year old owner, said he has never seen anything like this in his life. He said stock ponds are drying up and a couple of guys were in saying they are selling their herds, one had 60 head, he didn't know how many the other had. But that's just starting, here in our part of Texas we are in severe drought conditions.

Meat, corn products, and wheat products are going to go sky high in the coming months. Then it takes awhile to rebuild herds if they do and for another growing season to produce so its a year or more away to improve.

It's hard to believe the price of scratch for the chickens. It's more than doubled in the last 3 years. You can have some of our water though, just run a hose up to here, I'll keep it coming.

[decoy409]

patstab,did you catch 'The Future of Food' I reinitiated yesterday? Wondering as you are up on the state of things from what I have gathered from your postings.

[decoy409]

patstab,good deal. Happy to hear that you do not have all of your eggs in one basket.


See who is charge of the food here? Why just a few years back,this one now in charge,was stating as to how bad Mon and gmo was as their is animal testing,but no human testing. Why we are the animals!
And as I note as we have sailed straight on into this abyss,the many,many ripples that just pop up left and right.

patstab,from my post yesterday #1817,

We featured some real inside looks 3 years back as to the state of out of control genetics in seed world. Patstab has a very good idea I gather as well as kman as to this very serious problem.
Point is it did not start yesterday,and those who have the cake pave the way for all. And I mean exactly as we state.

Grab a bowl of popcorn and a drink and pull up a chair. Se how,who,what and where and the cast of characters that will send some ripples of their own if you are unaware or partially.
I said years and years ago this was far out of control. We have ran over this quite well and the various paths it detours itself.

The Future of Food

www.hulu.com/watch/67878/the-future-of-food

Why,you have come a long way baby.


Dramatic Proliferation Of Herbicide-Resistant Weeds Threatens U.S. Crops

www.businessinsider.com/pesticide-resistant-weeds-2011-6

[texasredneck]

Herbicide-Resistant weeds are not a problem. Just give all the people on the dole a hoe and tell them chop weeds or starve.

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 10, 2011 16:44:54 GMT -5 texasredneck said:

Herbicide-Resistant weeds are not a problem. Just give all the people on the dole a hoe and tell them chop weeds or starve.

Tex,
You did not say Goat Proof... Goat Milk is a good by product of weeds. Deer Like weeds too.
Now for the Deer corn.. Get ready to dig a lot deeper this year then last.. Sure glade We got tired to filling the feeder.. Got Deer corn left over.. Or was that tried to feeder them Hogs....

We hope to get some of those F1 Japanese Deer/ Elk crosses next year from A&M!!

Have a happy,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Attachments:

[jarhead1976]

All commodity's are going to go to the moon! Cotton is king!

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 10, 2011 20:15:41 GMT -5 @patstab said:

I am so tired of picking and processing tomatoes! If this were Wednesday all these would go to the food bank, but here it is Friday night.

I have 60 quarts of canned tomatoes, 40 of juice, 14 pints of seasoned tomatoes, 7 quarts of green tomatoes and I don't know how many pints of them. I given away wagons of tomatoes, I even pulled some of the plants that thankfully were dying. But I still have tomatoes. Guess I will make barbecue sauce tomorrow, the recipe sounds very good. Will make a double batch as one only uses 24 tomatoes and I have BUNCHES of tomatoes again. I'm sure I have at least 200 jars of food I've canned.

I have canned tuna, chicken, relish, bread and butter pickles, pickled banana peppers, green beans, chili, meatballs, seasoned meat sauce, pickled beets, and canned potatoes. I still have some potatoes for frying and baking but they are not keeping real well, different variety next year. Also some onions left too.

I started dressing out the chickens, only did 2 yesterday, fried one last night a bit tough. So today simmered it with mushroom soup, was tender and delicious. Plan on dressing out 3 a day next week. I have 16 more to put in the freezer. I don't like doing it but if you are raising them to eat someone has to do it.

I really want to stop canning this year, but I can't let that stuff go to waste, I'm down to tomatoes, cukes, and peppers now. Froze 30 pint and a half containers of corn, that was 11 dozen. We expect to have at least another 14 dozen in another week, so putting that many more up, should last a year, hope I can get all the chickens and corn in my freezers.

Good eating this winter and next spring.

Now just one minute.. You have tomatoes.. I have 1015 very sweet onions, Peppers of all kinds and garlic( all kinds)..Have a freezer full of pigs,hogs,deer and a turkey.. We could feed the whole Money Talk gang and have Frank tell us how to retire early!! I also have a friend that has deep sand and I helped plant baker Potatoes.. Long Island type..try that with some Texas Red wine ..Merlot and some sweet Pecan Pie...

I remember picking Pecan at Tarleton for my half of the nuts.. My mother would make the best Pecan Pie..

Attachments:

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 10, 2011 21:34:54 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

Lets have a hoe down...I'll bring the hoe's!

per General of the Army Fighting Joe Hooker.. I bring them

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

One day you will see nothing but factory farms, you think food is high now, I'm glad in a way we are old. Maybe we won't live to see our country totally destroyed.

My auntie and Uncle have gone totally organic yields up 40% over oil. Don't worry the ones of us that like solutions will make sure that things won't be totally destroyed.

News Feature: Organic farming training: A case for public-private partnership
www.pia.gov.ph/?m=1&t=1&id=35276

Go green
www.sofiaecho.com/2011/05/20/1092609_go-green

Local News from All Over
Africa
Don’t Panic – Go Organic
www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/eij/article/round-the-world

Earth Island Reports
Orella Stewardship Institute
Digging Deep
www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/eij/article/orella_stewardship_institute

World’s biggest rice exporter sets GE-free rice policy
www.mb.com.ph/articles/320921/world-s-biggest-rice-exporter-sets-gefree-rice-policy

[decoy409]

Best put in your orders for Jiffy Pop?

[Value Buy]

Jiffy pop bag imploded on the stove.
Corn down to $6.51

[usaone]

Looks like inflation was transitory after all.

[usaone]

Jun 9, 2011 10:20:56 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

Value Buy, I take it you have seen the 'actual' reported results thus far?

On May 23, the American Farm Bureau Federation released the following statement from its national office:

AFBF Estimates 3.6 M Ag Acres Hit by Floods

Washington, D.C. May 23—After learning firsthand from state Farm Bureaus about recent flooding devastation in the southern United States, the American Farm Bureau Federation now estimates that nearly 3.6 million acres of farmland has been impacted by the natural disaster. On a Farm Bureau nationwide call late last week, states also reported an estimated 40% of this year's rice crop has been affected.

Arkansas topped the list with a million acres affected, including 300,000 acres of rice and 120,000 acres of wheat. Illinois was estimated to have 500,000 acres of farmland under water, with Mississippi and Missouri coming in at 600,000 and 570,000 acres, respectively. Tennessee reported 650,000 acres and Louisiana was pegged at 280,000 acres.

"There is no doubt about it, the effect of the flooding on farmers and ranchers is being felt deeply across the south," said AFBF Chief Economist Bob Young. "One is reminded of the '93 or '95 floods in terms of scale of affected area."

"But, said Young, it's critical that the government acts quickly to rebuild the levees and allow producers to make plans for the future.

"In many of these areas, agriculture is the major economic driver for the region," said Young. "While some may be able to get a crop in the ground this year, we need to also think about the long-term economic health of these farms and communities."

"Without the levees in place to protect homes and farms, however, it may be hard to make those investments," added Young.


Wheat: Southern Drought; Northern Cold, Wet
In the southern Winter wheat zone of the High Plains (where the grain is sown in the Fall, and harvested now), harvesting is underway in Texas and Oklahoma, where intense drought has reduced yields, or even destroyed the crop. A large area of western Texas, which last year produced just over 103 million bushels, will be lucky to harvest 23 million this year (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture yield estimate, which may be high). Many acres have been opened for cattle, or plowed under for insurance purposes.

In Kansas, where the harvest begins next month, the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers met last week, and compiled what they called a "mixed bag" estimate, at best, of reduced yields, widespread "abandonment" (farmers opting to file insurance claims for a failed crop). Otherwise, there are a few reports of good stands of wheat. Since then, this week's torrential storms and tornadoes hit.

Wheat fields in the Mississippi Delta region have suffered huge damage from heavy rains and floods. In Arkansas, 22% of Winter wheat will likely be abandoned as too wet to harvest, on about 120,000 acres. Parts of the Georgia wheatlands have also been hit. Moreover, a yield-reducing fungus has spread in the wet conditions in the South. Known as stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis), it can reduce yields by 40% on vulnerable wheat varieties, if not caught and treated quickly.

Proceed to the far northern part of the continental wheat belt, where the grain is planted in the Spring, and the sowing has been delayed by prolonged wet and cold conditions, or even floods. Grain planting in Canada is only about 53% complete, compared with a customary 75% at this time. The Canadian Wheat Board issued a statement May 24 on the situation: "Farmers in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba are struggling to get crop in the ground. Progress in these areas was pushed further back over the weekend by moderate to heavy rain (15-65 mm) that brought seeding to a halt."

The North American wheat losses are amplified as a world crisis, by major losses in other wheat-production centers, such as France, which is hard hit by drought; there is also the global impact of last Summer's drought in the Eurasian wheat belt. Last week, the Ukrainian Parliament voted up a measure to continue wheat export restrictions.

A drastic wheat shortage is in the making. Earlier this year, the International Grains Council forecast a fall in world wheat output this year, to below 672 million metric tons, down from 682 mmt in 2010 and 2009, but now, the direction is going below 660 mmt or far lower.

Corn: Delayed Planting, Ruined Fields
In the "river states" of the Ohio Basin (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee) and the Lower Mississippi (Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana), hundreds of counties have seen their corn and soybean crops delayed, damaged, or ruined.

The one piece of deceptively "good" news is that in the center of the corn belt, in Illinois and Iowa—the latter being the single largest corn state in the nation, accounting for 19% of the annual crop)—farmers report that their corn has been planted or replanted in time, and today looks good. But this can neither compensate for losses in the other states, nor is it sane to just wait and see whether the next three months bring perfect weather for Iowa and Illinois corn, and call that a national food security policy. In particular, under the Royal-Green Regime, 40% of Iowa corn is now going to ethanol, not food! Iowa is also the largest pork and shell-egg producer state in the nation. Bacon and eggs will be a luxury of the past very soon.

In Ohio, which ranks between being the fifth and eighth biggest corn-producing state, has been so soaked, that only 11% of the fields were planted as of May 22, compared with over 80% in a decent year. Some farmers may try to switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. Others are lining up insurance claims, for "prevented planting."

This situation is playing out in many other corn counties, outside the central corn belt (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois), making for a guaranteed fall in national production. In turn, this is an international disaster, given that U.S. output represents 40% of total annual world corn production.

Lies and Chiseling
The latest monthly USDA crop forecast, released May 12 in the midst of the severe storm and flood damage (WASDE, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) was a travesty for understating the impact of the flooding, droughts, hail, and other hits on U.S. crops. All the grain production figures were overstated. The USDA lied. Even the low-lifes in the financial media are ridiculing the May 12 report, as presenting harvest estimates that are obviously way too high. An Australian news service, farmonline.com.au, ran quotations from various USDA critics, such as a commodity analyst for Commonwealth Bank, who said, "The USDA's estimate of US winter wheat production appears too high, as do its forecasts for Canadian and Black Sea wheat production next season...."

Meanwhile, the United States is cutting budgets. Among these spending cuts are supports vital to weather monitoring and forewarning (a 30% cut in funding of the National Weather Service), disaster response, and emergency aid to farming to protect and assure the food supply.

For more than a year, the White House has waged war against the nation's leading Earth-observation and -exploration capabilities in space, including its potential collaboration with other spacefaring nations. Now, the Administration has crippled some observation satellites already in space, and pushed off and cancelled others.

By cuts in NASA's and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) budget in FY2011, and again for FY2012, three satellite arrays crucial for monitoring Sun, solar wind, and earthquake-precursor activity have been lost in the recent period: GOES 11 as of Feb. 28, when its data stopped being collected; DESDynI, which did not get launched; and the French-American Demeter, shut off in December 2010 after actually detecting precursor activity to the Haiti earthquake of February 2010.

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), in its FY2012 budget message, told NASA to indefinitely "defer" the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) constellation of four satellites. It was designed for extremely precise data collection on solar radiation's interaction with the Earth.

Beyond this, the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) funding was cut out of the FY 2012 budget entirely, with "very serious consequences to our ability to do severe storm warning, long-term weather forecasting, search and rescue, and good weather forecasts" for the polar regions, according to testimony of the Administrator of NOAA.
(end)

I think I like the general everyday media reports better...not.

Wheat DOWN SHARPLY.

[usaone]

www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/GRAINS-Wheat-falls-to-7-month-low-corn-down-4-pct-J3RXZ?opendocument&src=rss

[Value Buy]

Corn planting acreage in Indiana and Ohio will be down this year. Bad for corn, good for soybeans on production quantities.
Wheat will have it's problems, especially the winter wheat with all the rain, imo