Stock Pick of the Week - W.E. 25 Feb. 2011

[rovo]

Rules:
1. Selection must be made prior to the opening bell on the first trading day of the week.
2. Selection may be changed up to the opening bell.
3. Starting price is the opening price on first trading day of week.
4. Ending price is closing price on last trading day of week.
5. No options or complex trading vehicles. Only stocks and ETFs.

To enter the game:
List your stock's symbol, Long or Short, Company name, what the company does and why you like the selection.


Congratulations to last week's winner -- SlowbutSure


Market is closed Monday, 21 February.

[ModE98]

Will go with CMFO (Long) - China Marine Food Group, LTD. It's cheap and lagging its peers, so maybe a little catch up this week.
China Marine Food Group Limited is engaged in the business of processing, distribution and sale of processed seafood-based snack foods, as well as the sale of fresh and frozen marine catch. The Company is a holding company whose primary business operations are conducted through its direct, wholly owned subsidiary, Ocean Technology (China) Company Limited (Ocean Technology) and its subsidiaries, Shishi Rixiang Marine Food Co., Ltd. (Rixiang), Shishi Huabao Jixiang Water Products Co., Ltd.(Jixiang), Shishi Huabao Mingxiang Foods Co., Ltd. (Mingxiang) and Shishi Xianglin Trading Co., Ltd. (Xianglin). Its frozen processed seafood products are sold to both domestic and overseas customers. Its marine catch is sold to overseas customers and distributors in Fujian, Shandong and Liaoning provinces, some of whom directly export the marine catch to South Korea and Taiwan. On January 1, 2010, Mingxiang acquired 80% interest in Shishi Xianghe Food Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (Xianghe).

[uncle23]

GE ...long

02/24 dividend

[burger]

I'm going long with YONG...hey that rhymes! YONG seems to be picking up a little steam. Let's see a nice little run up to 8!

[ModE98]

burger, may the fortune coolie break with a good omen inside. YONG at 8+ would be a most welcome and pleasant surprise.
10 by September would make my year.

[Bluerobin]

Congrats SBS. I am gonna get you this week with the same horse. ALU, long. I think this one is just at the beginning of a new journey.

[yclept]

UCO long
I'm trying a 2X oil; positive bias. I think this stuff in the Arab world is far from over, and is likely to worry (if not actually affect) the oil market. There is the possibility that the Shiites in Bahrain might cross the causeway into Saudi Arabia. I'd like to see it move into the Persian world as well -- Kuwait had some rumblings this last week, and I probably refuse to kick the bucket primarily to wait and see the downfall of Iran. Both of them are big producers. All of which might raise the price of oil significantly. UCO is also sitting near the bottom of its short-term trading range.

I was tempted to go with XIN again, as I don't think its run is over despite the Chinese raising the reserve requirements for banks last week.

Disclosure: I bought UCO a few days ago. I also own XIN.

"Double, double toil and trouble; fire burn and cauldron bubble."

[clarkrl2]

Long CELG (Celgene Corp. - Biotechnology)

I own a call spread on CELG that expires in April. The position is down quite a bit at this time but the stock appears to be recovering.

[tyfighter3]

NOG long.

[yclept]

I think UCO is going to have a pretty big gap-up on Tuesday open. That's bad for my contest pick, but good for the real money position I bought on 2/14. I'm tempted to choose another stock for the contest, but in this unsettled world news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/21/live-blogging-north-africa-middle-east-protests/, I don't know what that would be, so I guess I'll stick with the UCO on the chance that it'll gap up and then keep running. I'll be watching the real position carefully and am willing to take the money and run on any sign that either side is clearly winning the Libya struggle. I'm sure it sounds callous, but my stock position is almost certain to improve so long as they keep shooting each other. I didn't create the situation. Hell, if it was up to me we'd have sent a sniper to visit Gaddafi back in '86 instead of bombing his infant daughter. That was Reagan for you, send a bomb to do the job of a bullet, and hit the wrong person while you're at it.

Edit: Maybe he's already gone: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8339096/Libya-Colonel-Gaddafi-flees-to-Venezuela-as-cities-fall-to-protesters.html
And oil does seem to be a flea in a hot frying pan:
www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/markets-oil-idUSLDE71K0TK20110221


Ancient Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times."

[mtntigger]

I can't decide this week, so I'll stay with PBR long.

[architecto25]

AREX Approach Resources, Inc. (long)
Stock has had a good run; more ?; or topping ?
Independent energy company engaged in exploration, development, production & acquisition
of unconventional natural gas and oil properties in U.S., British Columbia.
They're located in Ft.Worth, Texas
Closed Friday at $32.48 & made a new 52 wk.high at $33.8899
For you'alls information, this pick made by that old, ancient system ( symbols on a wall &
throw a good dart....... LOL)

[Deleted]

my trading rules are very boring.... they clearly don't trade big gaps as we're going to have this morning.... sitting on ones hands is not an option for this game... however with real money that's exactly what i'd do.... if i were lucky enough to be long Yclept's UCO or long USO i would watch and maybe take some profits at today's open.....
short TQQQ
in pre-market TQQQ is already down 3.6%, so this a may be a super dumb play.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p83815959002

[2kids10horses]

MajEasy,

Why go short TQQQ? Isn't it easier to go long SQQQ?

Just wondering...

[rovo]

I'm going the other way on the gap down. Long TQQQ.

In a rush. Be back later.

[yclept]

Well, I sold the UCO. Should have dumped it right at the open as Will suggested, but watched for a little while and suffered the consequences of same. Still I got out at several prices between 11.83 and 11.84 having bought on 2/14 at 10.83 -- a bit over 9% in just over 4 trading days -- reckon if I end up in the poorhouse it won't be from trades like that!
I also bought some QLD at 90.6. I don't expect to own this very long -- may well sell before the day is over.

[Deleted]

2 kids10horses wrote:

Why go short TQQQ? Isn't it easier to go long SQQQ?
Just wondering...

the edge is not normally great, but statistically TQQQ will fall greater than SQQQ will raise.... synthetic ultra longs and shorts have a flaw they don't track the underlining equity perfectly....

[rovo]

Selections and opening prices as follows:

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] PBR [/td][td] $38.46 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Bluerobin [/td][td] L [/td][td] ALU [/td][td] $4.83 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] UCO [/td][td] $12.160 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D. I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] SPXU [/td][td] $16.23 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] MajEasy [/td][td] S [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $176.62 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] YONG [/td][td] $7.14 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQQ [/td][td] $58.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] L [/td][td] CELG [/td][td] $53.07 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $176.62 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] AREX [/td][td] $32.440 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CMFO [/td][td] $3.710 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tyfighter3 [/td][td] L [/td][td] NOG [/td][td] $28.70 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] GE [/td][td] $20.88 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.000 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.000 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[2kids10horses]

MajEasy,

But don't you have to pay your broker interest on the value of the stock you're short?

By the way, I was stopped out of URTY this morning. It's dropped another 6 points since then. I'd kinda like to buy back in, but I'm not very skilled at catching falling knives.

[Deleted]

2Kids wrote:

But don't you have to pay your broker interest on the value of the stock you're short?

almost my all of the years that i've been trading (over 40yrs.) .... i believed as you wrote, "don't use margin" "don't pay any interest"...
however the resent training and mentorship has taught this old dog a new trick.... if you know for sure that your win-rate will average somewhere between 60 and 65% and that your risk/reward ratio is always in your favor.... use all the margin you can get, pay any interest charges and never worry about the tax implications of your trades....
P.S. i always have too much cash and don't generally use margin, i have a hard time finding enough equities that meet my programs special requirements to trade them...

[2kids10horses]

Maj,

I'm not suggesting that you shouldn't go short or use margin, but since SQQQ does all that for you isn't it just "easier" to use it rather than having to short TQQQ?

Some accounts, like an IRA, don't allow margin, so you can't short in those.

I've been watching both TQQQ and SQQQ today, and they are trading within .01% inverse of each other all day. I'm sure the volume of TQQQ is a lot more than SQQQ, so maybe the spread is better.

I'm trading the Russell 3x's: URTY and SRTY. For me, it's easier to just buy U when I want to be long, and buy S when I want to be short.

Congats, by the way, on a 60 to 65% win rate! I'd be on margin, too, with win rate like that!

[Deleted]

read my post number 45, and enlarge the pic.... the price difference between the synthetic ultras won't show up intraday, you'll only see it after 5 to 20 days of trading....
notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=startinvesting&action=display&thread=2078&page=2

"Congats, by the way, on a 60 to 65% win rate!"

60% winners is only 20% better than a coin flip.... try buying high and selling higher.... don't try to buy low sell high....

[Deleted]

2Kids,
SQQQ lost 38%
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p65995400350
TQQQ gained 48%
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p18151021234

[rovo]

The shorts are out of the gate and a few lengths ahead of the pack. Well, actually, there are two packs .... those close to zero gain and four of us with substantial negative numbers.

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] MajEasy [/td][td] S [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $176.62 [/td][td] $167.76 [/td][td] 5.02% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D. I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] SPXU [/td][td] $16.23 [/td][td] $16.69 [/td][td] 2.83% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] YONG [/td][td] $7.140 [/td][td] $7.13 [/td][td] -0.14% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] GE [/td][td] $20.88 [/td][td] $20.82 [/td][td] -0.29% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] L [/td][td] CELG [/td][td] $53.07 [/td][td] $52.89 [/td][td] -0.34% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] PBR [/td][td] $38.46 [/td][td] $38.30 [/td][td] -0.40% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CMFO [/td][td] $3.71 [/td][td] $3.68 [/td][td] -0.81% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Bluerobin [/td][td] L [/td][td] ALU [/td][td] $4.83 [/td][td] $4.75 [/td][td] -1.66% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQQ [/td][td] $58.00 [/td][td] $57.03 [/td][td] -1.67% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] AREX [/td][td] $32.440 [/td][td] $31.52 [/td][td] -2.84% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] UCO [/td][td] $12.160 [/td][td] $11.76 [/td][td] -3.29% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tyfighter3 [/td][td] L [/td][td] NOG [/td][td] $28.70 [/td][td] $27.45 [/td][td] -4.36% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $176.62 [/td][td] $167.76 [/td][td] -5.02% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.000 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.000 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[2kids10horses]

Maj,

Oh, I get it. You are talking about the cumulative effect of the "negative compounding" that occurs in the leveraged ETFs.

The period that you gave the graphs for was a largely uptrending period. More days were up days than down days. Positive compounding of the results makes the return on the Long Leveraged ETF be more than triple (since we're talking about a 3x ETF) the return on the base index. The short leveraged ETF goes down during this period, but the compounding doesn't magnify the return.

However, if the overall trend been down, the Short leveraged ETF would have the compounding effect work in it's favor, and it would have gone up more than the Long Leveraged ETF went down.

I think what I'm trying to say is I think the Long Leveraged ETFs work better when the market is going up, and the Short Leveraged ETFs work better when the market declines. Over time.

It hurts my head to consider shorting the Long Leveraged ETF when I expect the market to decline, and shorting the Short Leveraged ETF when I expect the market to rise!

I just try to get on the right side of the market! Right now, I'm in cash.

This has been an interesting discussion, and I apologise to Rovo for hijacking the thread.

[rovo]

2&10, No problem from me for off topic stuff, especially if it is still market oriented. The pick of the week thread is a learning tool disguised as a game.

[mtntigger]

Oh look! It's Wednesday.... it must be time for me to say I'm going to win this week. ;D

[rovo]

Major short still in the lead but the oil and gas crowd is closing in on Majeasy.

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] MajEasy [/td][td] S [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $176.62 [/td][td] $163.62 [/td][td] 7.36% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] PBR [/td][td] $38.46 [/td][td] $40.32 [/td][td] 4.85% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D. I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] SPXU [/td][td] $16.230 [/td][td] $16.99 [/td][td] 4.65% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] UCO [/td][td] $12.16 [/td][td] $12.67 [/td][td] 4.19% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CMFO [/td][td] $3.71 [/td][td] $3.70 [/td][td] -0.27% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] L [/td][td] CELG [/td][td] $53.07 [/td][td] $52.71 [/td][td] -0.68% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tyfighter3 [/td][td] L [/td][td] NOG [/td][td] $28.70 [/td][td] $28.32 [/td][td] -1.32% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] AREX [/td][td] $32.44 [/td][td] $32.01 [/td][td] -1.33% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] YONG [/td][td] $7.14 [/td][td] $6.98 [/td][td] -2.24% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] GE [/td][td] $20.880 [/td][td] $20.37 [/td][td] -2.44% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQQ [/td][td] $58.000 [/td][td] $56.56 [/td][td] -2.48% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Bluerobin [/td][td] L [/td][td] ALU [/td][td] $4.83 [/td][td] $4.67 [/td][td] -3.31% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $176.62 [/td][td] $163.62 [/td][td] -7.36% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.000 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.000 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[yclept]

Well, it looks like I would have made more money if I had held the real-life position in UCO longer. But then I'd still be sitting under the sword like Damocles, wondering when that single horse tail hair would slip or break. Being out of that trade with money tucked safely away is just fine by me!

[Bluerobin]

I think we all went Short this week!