Weak Projection for all Tested index: weak GDP

[bimetalaupt]

Try this again...MMXIV3.. Gold projection for all systems is weak.. only DJUA are selling for less then Central Tendency..I just do not see end to monetary easement yet.. QE3 by Aug 2011..

Just a thought from the numbers from MMXI V3.. Gold.. only a thought.. A lot more information on Black Swans on Duff ..Things are getting dicier for the PIIGS and the Gluted German banks.. They need Capital like Citibank got..Now Citi is the best capitilized bank in the world.. please keep it that way.
Bi Metal Au Pt.. see picture for data..

5/26/11 Central Tendency current discount sd close 2009 2010 profits Target (12/1/2011) djia 11790.9903429251 12394.66 -4.87040% 12.4778% 10428 1362.99034292506 12659.3747977579 djtm 13208.45263 13832.51 -2.25561684% 15.6977977% 11182.39 2026.06263 16297.1210517399 djua 428.690079918739 433.450 4.337158% 23.0469335255% 379.200 49.4900799187395 513.826722278346 russell 2m 724.352991542099 820.87 -10.30461860% 18.53004506% 625.39 98.9629915420993 841.533052049273 QQQ 58.3341552922165 56.79 2.7190619690% 18.3309% 45.98 12.3541552922165 66.0136775252981 trend djia 11790.9903429251 12394.66 -4.87040% 12.4778% 10428 1362.99034292506 djtm 12473.3158824994 13832.51 -9.82608% 15.6977977% 11182.39 1290.92588249937 djua 434.442145245427 433.450 0.22889% 23.0469335255% 379.200 55.2421452454273 russell 2k 770.17344821699 820.87 -6.17595% 18.53004506% 625.39 144.78344821699 QQQ 54.4195793116793 $56.790 -4.1740107208% 18.3309% 45.98 8.43957931167935

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[decoy409]

Bruce, I am not buying it. I for one am done fed up with speculation calls. Speculation calls is what caused a very great part of this whole mess. Nobody is controlling the speculative calls being made by some. Until that changes,nothing changes.

Gold recovers on weaker USD, Crude Oil bounces on LTN, Goldman Sacks forecast

uk.ibtimes.com/articles/151844/20110525/gold-recovers-on-weaker-usd-crude-oil-bounces-on-ltn-goldman-sacks-forecast.htm

The masked GDP is really sick. I am all over it. Keiser has not let 'anybody' down with far ahead of time calls,some as far in advance as years. Today's show sums up some things that simply can not be denied. Check it out.

[bimetalaupt]

May 26, 2011 15:08:02 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

Bruce, I am not buying it. I for one am done fed up with speculation calls. Speculation calls is what caused a very great part of this whole mess. Nobody is controlling the speculative calls being made by some. Until that changes,nothing changes.

Gold recovers on weaker USD, Crude Oil bounces on LTN, Goldman Sacks forecast I DID NOT POST THE GOLD PAGE.. GOLD MEANS THIS IS THE FINAL VERSION PRODUCTION SYSTEM OF MMXI. .MMXII WILL BE VERY LATE DUE TO OTHER PROJECTS NEEDED LIKE THE DATA-LOGGERS....( GOLD PRICE FOR 4/2012 WAS POSTED AT $1775 HAS DROPPED TO $1768 (MAY 2012)

uk.ibtimes.com/articles/151844/20110525/gold-recovers-on-weaker-usd-crude-oil-bounces-on-ltn-goldman-sacks-forecast.htm

The masked GDP is really sick. I am all over it. Keiser has not let 'anybody' down with far ahead of time calls,some as far in advance as years. Today's show sums up some things that simply can not be denied. Check it out.

Decoy409, I Agree the MMXI model is showing weak GDP growth esp for the PIIGS.. That is what was stated in the header...
The math model has had a very good run for the last 10 years.. We had more sales in 2008 esp in Aug.. MMXI is near a sales for the Russell 2000 and DJIA but the sell off has resolved most of that.. There ARE "NO BUYS" AND MOST TRENDS ARE DOWN.. THAT IS BEARISH..I AM SORRY TO SAY I THINK YOU DID NOT READ THIS INTO THE MATH MODEL.. IT HAS NO OPEN TO BUY CALLS.. REMEMBER IT CALLED FOR A SELL IN APRIL 2010 ALSO!!! i THINK THE CALL WAS MADE ON 4/23/2010 AFTER THE MARKET SO CALL IT 4/24/2010.. YOU MAY WANT TO CHECK YOUR NOTES..

Just a thought,
Bi metal Au Pt

As before this is a math model.. it has not data for Black Swans.. but it is in low natural.. It has no emotional feeling only numbers...

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[decoy409]

I don't think that the model is accurate as it was at one time. Gold demand is in play as well as silver and both ride in the front seat together. One moves,the other follows. And due to the extrodinary efforts to suppress these over the years (and as of recent as we have seen) and allow fiat to be king with no actual backing (as in derivatives) that the whole story here is not getting out as it should be.
I am well aware of numbers and mathematicians Bruce and the miraculous numbers that can be produced whether positive or negative out of thin air.

Now let me add the following food for thought in some recent events,

'He who owns the Gold & Silver makes the rules'

The looting of Greece,

May 26,2011 Helen Skopis talks with Max Keiser about Greek austerity




May 18,2011 Call Leaked- Biggest Names Discuss Silver

This is a 4 pt. interview which takes about 1hr. And yes I have reviewed all 4 parts.

1)

2)

3)

4)



Freeport Raises 2011 Gold Sales Outlook To 1.6 Million Oz From 1.4 Million

www.advfn.com/nyse/StockNews.asp?stocknews=FCX&article=47374462&headline=freeport-raises-2011-gold-sales-outlook-to-1-6-million-oz-from

Gold Sales Reciepts Increased By 25% Durring April 2011 Compared To April 2010

www.southamericanminerals.com/simpnews/sndownload.php?entrynr=68

GOLD SALES RECEIPTS INCREASED BY 25% DURING APRIL 2011
COMPARED TO APRIL 2010
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – May 9th, 2011 – SOUTH AMERICAN MINERALS,
INC. (SAMM-TRADED OTC PINK SHEETS) The Company has been advised by
its wholly owned subsidiary North American Resources Ltd. (NARIL), that gold
sales for the month of April 2011 resulted in receipts of $427,000 compared to
receipts of $338,000 during April 2010.
Gold sales receipts for the four months ending April 30, 2011 were $1,427,190
compared with receipts of $1,176,592 for the same period in 2010. This was an
increase......(see link for the full)

There is a very good reason behind the hoarding that has been going on. How it plays out with a couple of other variables that are in play right now and have been for many years,we shall see.

As I stated long,long ago,politics and the markets can not be divided as they are 2 of the same peas in the pod.

And Bruce after reviewing the following dropped off,I would like to have your take.

[kman]

Decoy, Your going to buy a Goldman report? You know better than than that.

My money goes with Bruce on this bra. Math is the purest form of truth..Remember Soros..he gave the warning...This is the same guy that bankrupt the Pacific rim, at will.

[kman]

Bruce..How is that fine Texas wine coming this year?

Becker's have a Malbec??

[flow5]

If Q2 real-gDp hasn't improved relative to Q1, then either inflation has risen (doubtful), or money velocity has fallen (probable).

[flow5]

Justin Wolfers
05/26/2011 | 1:01 pm

...GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was unrevised, remaining at 1.8%. But they’re focused on the wrong number.

...This alternative is often called GDP(I), because it is based on INCOME data, rather than SPENDING data. And GDP(I) is actually a more reliable estimate. Unfortunately, this more accurate indicator tells us that GDP grew by only 1.2%.

...In fact, this alternative indicator says that GDP is still below its level from late 2006.

...GDP is expected to grow by only 3.2% in 2012....remember that Okun’s Law tells us growth needs to exceed 3% before the unemployment rate will decline.

[decoy409]

Kman, no I am not buying the GS report. I am looking at what the discussion pertained to in that 4 part deal there.
And I am mixing that in for starters with what Roberts had to say in his interview as well I am weighing the moves from out of town and simply accumulating and adding into the knowns I have covered and those in which I do not discuss on this board or others (yet).

Aside from that kamn,this is really neat that 4 of us from days past our here together. I think that is really something kman and it makes me happy!!!!

Hi Flow! It's wonderful that you have joined in the topic! I think both has occured and the fiat king cake being the foremost.

[decoy409]

Flow,I hate to say it,but 3 years past now and I was screaming for job return to the US.
Remember this beauty?

2010 CBO Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis
www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/116xx/doc11659/07-27_Debt_FiscalCrisis_Brief.pdf

[flow5]

QE2 took Treasury's off the market (increasing the supply of loan-funds), but IOeRs offset the BOG's move by inducing dis-intermediation among the non-banks (decreasing the supply of loan-funds).

The interest expense is in the process of becoming the largest component of the Federal Deficit, all the while the burden of higher interest rates is being compounded, so mathematically the burden will eventually become exponential.

[flow5]

The implicit price deflator rose 1.9%, but PCE rose 3.8%. Gas & groceries were a big subtraction from nominal gDp.

[bimetalaupt]

May 26, 2011 19:20:57 GMT -5 kman said:

Bruce..How is that fine Texas wine coming this year?

Becker's have a Malbec??

Kman,
He has a Left bank Mertage ( aka Claret in France) he uses about 2%. It take longer to mature so it could be older then 2006 as it is less then 5%. Each wine from each grape is aged in its own cast. 2011 could be a good wine but not much of it as most vines did not set grapes very well this year. But on the other hand less grapes = more flavour!! We had a very good Merlot vintage in 2009. I just bottled the last of the St Peters of Texas 2008 (Merlot 181= 95% and LeNoir 5%). Merlot is cut back 60% for the last picking.. Great wine like Petrus. Concentrated flavour.Goes great with cheese and water crackers. Deer Chile a bit on the sweet side also.
Back to Greek bonds and the major write off no one in Germany or Finland wants...

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[bimetalaupt]

May 26, 2011 21:47:44 GMT -5 flow5 said:

The implicit price deflator rose 1.9%, but PCE rose 3.8%. Gas & groceries were a big subtraction from nominal gDp.

Flow5,
I have been thinking about this .. If we use the 1.2% + 3.8% we get about 5% which is about the same as growth of m2....year over year.

April 2011/ April 2010 was growth of 4.9% for Seasonal "mal-adjusted" M2.. ( from H.6) or
(9033.4/8606.3)-1 = 4.96267436%.. real close to 5% for government work to me...

For your transaction numbers you talked about funds for transacting that were also from credit.. look like the banks are still not making loans. . Citibank is stating that now they have the capital no one is needing the services.. Business is hard to come by. It looks like the banking systems has reduced the areas where there is little profit.. We are going to have to pay more for banking services in the future as capital stock cost the banks dearly .. look at the need for real capital not COCO bonds in the German State owned banks...Can we save enough to replace the added GDP found with credit or did I miss your point.
The last number I saw for savings was 5.9%.. In the past the USA would be saving around 10%.. Looks like that is great goal.. It would cut into GDP by 4.1% but we could reduce our imports to get their without hurting our life style???

As before.. Thank-you for your thoughts.. Today I turned 66.. feel like a spring full of energy ready to unwind..

Bi Metal Au Pt!!!

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[tyfighter3]

Happy birthday Bruce. Just don't hurt something unwinding. LOL

[bimetalaupt]

Decoy409,
What more can I say.. The Swiss are big on the adventures of gold.. UBS has posted $2,000/ oz. I could also say Gold/Oil ratio is higher then nornmal.. at 10 to 1 we could see 150 on oil...

It is all a rigged game.. but it is the only game in town..

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It is all a rigged game.. but it is the only game in town..

Amen BTI!! Happy bday you sly guy!!!!

A little k4u

[bimetalaupt]

May 27, 2011 0:40:22 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

Bruce are you guys bored with the fact that no one talks to you on that other inferior board?

It's OK.... I like you guys better over here...why its more entertaining over here that's fer sure...and it is nice to see Flow posting again...let's try not to get caught up in some other peoples petty politics!

Frank the ,
Well would you believe the Venison chilli tasted great..Salmon smoked over mesquite was great as was the bacon warped shrimp over the same fire..
.Now for the Enercon E-126.. Merkel is going to make this deal very very very hard to pull off.. No nukes in Germany.. 25% replaceable energy.. so much for the E-126 .. She shut down 7 older nuclear power plants.. To phase out nuclear by 2018? time for some

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

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[usaone]

Happy Birthday Bruce!! Here's hoping for another 66 years Happy and Healthy!

What happened to M3?

[flow5]

Frank, can't navigate on the other board. Copied some posts & left. Haven't seen comments from Duff in a while either.

Bruce:

There is (1) Reserve and commercial bank credit that expands both the volume and velocity of new money and (2) intermediary credit that puts existing money (deposits held beyond the income period received), to work. The credit which matches savings with investment provides the largest contribution to real-gDp.

The hit to the transactions velocity figure stemmed from the collapse of the non-banks. Consumer deleveraging (dis-savings) temporarily bolstered money velocity, but this spurt has ended (as the un-weighting of CB deposit classifications signifies).

[973beachbum]

Happy Birthday Bruce!!! Enjoy your day!

[decoy409]

Decoy409,
What more can I say.. The Swiss are big on the adventures of gold.. UBS has posted $2,000/ oz. I could also say Gold/Oil ratio is higher then nornmal.. at 10 to 1 we could see 150 on oil...

It is all a rigged game.. but it is the only game in town..

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Straight up Bruce,I like that. Happy Birthday!

But the rigging is the fiat.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 27, 2011 9:43:59 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

Well Flow just wnt you to know your were missed and welcome you back!

I agree!

[flow5]

"...the U.S. trade balance fell to an annual rate of a negative $571 billion in the first quarter of 2011, the worst level since President Obama took office. This WORSENING of the trade deficit SUBTRACTED from demand for U.S. products, DRIVING DOWN real U.S. GDP growth from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to an anemic 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, according to the BEA's second estimate of 1st Quarter U.S. GDP released on May 26"

QE2 wasn't for you.

[bimetalaupt]

May 29, 2011 8:52:36 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

YES, it is nice to see Bruce and Flow back here. They bring a needed different perspective to the board. A lot of what they post is above me and not data that I follow, but like many I try to read what they have to say and get a take on the general issues they discuss.

Good to see both back.

WXYZ,
Well it is all about money..Call it partial Gold Backed or FIAT or a mix it is all about money..

I take that loan out in FIAT $$$$ and pay it back with FIAT$$$$ for real assets. . Like an education or an oil well but we must move forward. Just look at M3.. The massive drop has stopped with QE2.. OK I underestimated the effect of QE2,, added 3.6 Trillion dollars to the asset back per Flow5..

Well Thank-you Ben B. and all the Gang for a great 66 year old Birth day..Well the Truth is out.. my brothers has a meaner looking Pick-up then I do. .With a 800 lbs winch on the back for Hogs and water buffalo. ...two seats on the front bumper and three in the Citadel..with lights and room for six dogs....now for a few Buffalo Wings and Ribs from the ? ???

Did I say the Deer Chilli (venison) ..was sweet.. Corn feed...they like with pits with the molasses added..

To all.. Yes I ran into a problem with a large deal as many know.. Well now the word is our and SA want to lower oil prices to fil in the gap where our deal would have made money.. I got lucky and did not know it... now Germany want to use all the German 7.5 MW E-126 Enercon can build!!

I have to find a 2,000 ton crane with a 600 foot beam.. to lift the next generation 10 MW from Norway.

OK it is getting crazy...

Bi metal Au Pt

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

B, you are the man! Just keep making them worthless dollars!

P.s. All your brother needs is some flesh hanging off the front of that truck and you have the complete fighting machine.. ;D

[bimetalaupt]

May 26, 2011 19:22:42 GMT -5 flow5 said:

If Q2 real-gDp hasn't improved relative to Q1, then either inflation has risen (doubtful), or money velocity has fallen (probable).

Flow5,
MMXI again is projecting weak results with M2 growth of 4.9% and Savings also at 4.9% for April 2011 it looks like the projections are in line with Money. This would not speak well for removing the excess liquidity.. Where did I miss it..Looks like the market is selling above the Central Tendency ( DJTM) as well as Russell 2000 and DJIA.. Also the Trend is down..
Please,
M3 gain for the week was reported as 2.4% year over year so inflation should be mild. .I agree money velocity is also weak/ fallen .. Sorry I do not have these numbers from the MMXI system ...Plan to add them to MMXII if I have time to study the process..

Thank-you,
Bruce

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