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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 20:00:10 GMT -5
I don't think so. I know it's early, and we don't even know who all may jump in, but I think we all have a pretty good idea who the potential candidates may be. I believe it's highly unlikely that a completely unknown candidate may pop up who could seriously challenge Obama.
Obama is the incumbent and has the bully pulpit. I think he is safe, ceteris paribus.
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Mad Dawg Wiccan
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Post by Mad Dawg Wiccan on May 17, 2011 20:03:38 GMT -5
Voters remain fairly evenly divided over whether they want to give President Obama a second term in the White House. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a Generic Republican currently earns support from 45% of Likely Voters across the nation, while the president attracts 43% of the vote. A week ago, the president had an equally modest edge. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic match-up each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot |
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 20:09:42 GMT -5
With all due respect, I put very little faith in Rasmussen polling.
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 20:15:46 GMT -5
Although I'm not an Obama fan, he is a very savvy politician. You can bet he's saving his best stuff for the 2012 campaign trail.
Although I'm not an Obama fan, I would certainly not want him replaced with anyone on the right.
Sadly, Hillary won't be a choice.
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Mad Dawg Wiccan
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Post by Mad Dawg Wiccan on May 17, 2011 20:17:19 GMT -5
Your choice, they have proven to be generally the most accurate. I lost faith in most polls when they all claimed the Reagan/Carter race was too close to call right up until the election.
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 20:20:01 GMT -5
You may be right. However, what is most important with me regarding any poll is how the questions were asked. As we know, the same question can be asked different ways giving different results.
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Mad Dawg Wiccan
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Post by Mad Dawg Wiccan on May 17, 2011 20:26:14 GMT -5
You may be right. However, what is most important with me regarding any poll is how the questions were asked. As we know, the same question can be asked different ways giving different results. If you go to the Rasmussen site, they show the exact wording of what the poll was. In this case: 1* In thinking about the 2012 Presidential Election suppose you had a choice between a Republican candidate and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today would you vote for the Republican candidate or Democrat Barack Obama? |
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hello fromWarsaw
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Post by hello fromWarsaw on May 17, 2011 21:01:07 GMT -5
How Rasmussen skews the deal, I think, is the "likely voters" thing, somehow. But they always seem to skew about 5% to the Pub side. And their 'very against Obama" vs "against Obama " poll is silly, just shows many misled are "angry"...   |
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Mad Dawg Wiccan
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Post by Mad Dawg Wiccan on May 17, 2011 21:13:15 GMT -5
<<How Rasmussen skews the deal, I think, is the "likely voters" thing, somehow.>>
Unlike most pollsters, Rasmussen weights their data by shifting it towards historically likely voters vs registered voters. That is why they are usually so accurate.
"Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 34.4% Democrats, 34.6% Republicans, and 31.0% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans."
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Post by ungenteel on May 17, 2011 21:16:40 GMT -5
Post deleted due to content.
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Mad Dawg Wiccan
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Post by Mad Dawg Wiccan on May 17, 2011 21:18:32 GMT -5
<<it could be another thumping >>
Like November 2010?
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on May 17, 2011 21:20:30 GMT -5
Post deleted as it contained offending quote of another poster through no fault of Politically_Incorrect12.
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ungenteel
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Post by ungenteel on May 17, 2011 21:21:27 GMT -5
<<Like November 2010? >>
That was against congress in rightwing leaning districts .. scroll up for a real scenario
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 21:22:08 GMT -5
Pitting Obama against a "generic" GOP candidate is wishful thinking in the poll. Now, if the poll pit Obama against Newt Gingrich, I believe you'd see a much different result - in Obama's favor.
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on May 17, 2011 21:23:17 GMT -5
<<Like November 2010? >> That was against congress in rightwing leaning districts .. scroll up for a real scenario You mean against moderate districts...go figure that the moderate districts are the ones with the most possibility of change since the extremes are less likely to consider anybody from a different political party. |
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 21:34:55 GMT -5
Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed StronglyNovember 4, 2010, 10:41 pm Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters. On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well. The table below presents results for the eight companies in FiveThirtyEight’s database that released at least 10 polls of gubernatorial and Senate contests into the public domain in the final three weeks of the campaign, and which were active in at least two states.  The most accurate surveys were those issued by Quinnipiac University, which missed the final margin between the candidates by 3.3 points, and which showed little overall bias. The next-best result was from SurveyUSA, which is among the highest-rated firms in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings: it missed the margin between the candidates by 3.5 points, on average. More: fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
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hello fromWarsaw
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Post by hello fromWarsaw on May 17, 2011 22:12:30 GMT -5
Oh, dear, facts again!! ;D
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on May 17, 2011 22:16:28 GMT -5
Yes. Literally. ANYONE can beat Obama. Me. The first five names in the phone book. It's not gonna matter.
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hello fromWarsaw
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Post by hello fromWarsaw on May 17, 2011 22:37:50 GMT -5
"Strong and Wrong!" How much can sales really do?  |
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Post by luckyme on May 17, 2011 22:47:12 GMT -5
Well, listening to some talking heads, even the Dems don't think it's going to be a cake walk for Obama. I didn't vote for him in 2008 and won't in 2012 either, but don't see anyone else I'm liking at the moment either. I am an historically likely voter.  |
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 22:57:14 GMT -5
Yeah, the GOP is trotting out some real beauties. I want Palin and/or Bachmann in the race.
Mitt Romney may be the only sane one on the GOP side...
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Post by ed1066 on May 17, 2011 22:58:35 GMT -5
Yes. Literally. ANYONE can beat Obama. Me. The first five names in the phone book. It's not gonna matter.  |
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SweetVirginia
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Post by SweetVirginia on May 17, 2011 23:04:45 GMT -5
I really believe that Ron Paul could beat Obama. Ron Paul can get republican, independent, democrat, and tea partier votes.
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 23:11:37 GMT -5
I really believe that Ron Paul could beat Obama. Ron Paul can get republican, independent, democrat, and tea partier votes. You're entitled to your opinion, but I say Ron Paul is a loose canon - as he always has been. He has a fringe following, but that's about it. |
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on May 17, 2011 23:13:54 GMT -5
I really believe that Ron Paul could beat Obama. Ron Paul can get republican, independent, democrat, and tea partier votes. You're entitled to your opinion, but I say Ron Paul is a loose canon - as he always has been. He has a fringe following, but that's about it. It's a little early to start calling all the competition "fringe" isn't it? Most people at least wait until the election process starts before trying to make everybody else seem too extreme. |
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SweetVirginia
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Post by SweetVirginia on May 17, 2011 23:16:35 GMT -5
Yes. Literally. ANYONE can beat Obama. Me. The first five names in the phone book. It's not gonna matter. Unfortunately, I think your hopes are way too high. I'm not saying that Obama is a shoe in, but I feel that right now, there is not a strong enough candidate to beat Obama, unless Ron Paul gets Repub nomination. |
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Post by lakhota on May 17, 2011 23:17:07 GMT -5
No, it isn't too early on Ron Paul - because he has history - and it ain't pretty. His recent comparisons of social programs to slavery and saying he wouldn't have voted for the Civil Rights Act ain't helping...
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SweetVirginia
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Post by SweetVirginia on May 17, 2011 23:20:04 GMT -5
I really believe that Ron Paul could beat Obama. Ron Paul can get republican, independent, democrat, and tea partier votes. You're entitled to your opinion, but I say Ron Paul is a loose canon - as he always has been. He has a fringe following, but that's about it. I would not consider myself to be "fringe" in anyway, nor would anyone on these boards who know me. Yet I would most likely vote for Paul over Obama. I think there are many democrats like me who would do the same. |
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on May 17, 2011 23:23:36 GMT -5
I really believe that Ron Paul could beat Obama. Ron Paul can get republican, independent, democrat, and tea partier votes. You're entitled to your opinion, but I say Ron Paul is a loose canon - as he always has been. He has a fringe following, but that's about it. A very rare instance where Lak is right. If we nominate Ron Paul, Obama will get 80% of the vote, Paul will split the other 20% with the Green Party candidate. |
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SweetVirginia
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Post by SweetVirginia on May 17, 2011 23:26:44 GMT -5
No, it isn't too early on Ron Paul - because he has history - and it ain't pretty. His recent comparisons of social programs to slavery and saying he wouldn't have voted for the Civil Rights Act ain't helping... I of course support the Civil rights act but I understand the context in which Paul said he would not have voted for it. He does not feel that government should meddle in private businesses who do not wish to serve minorities. I disagree, but I do not think he believes this for racist reasons, I think he is just anti government involvement in private business. Is that extreme for me? Yes, but I agree with a lot of Paul's ideas such his position against the 2 wars and global policing. I also like his ideas on legalizing drugs since it would cut down on border violence, I also support a flat tax as Ron Paul does. Most of all, Ron Paul does seems like he is more straight forward than other politicians and what you see is what you get, no flip flopping. My two cents. |
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