So, how will OBL's death affect the 2012 elections

[Phoenix84]

This has already been touched on a bit in other threads, but I think the topic deserves it’s own thread.

I don’t believe Bin Laden’s death will have a huge boost for Obama in the 2012 elections. If you supported Obama before, this is probably going to be just one more reason. If you weren’t supportive of Obama before, this probably won’t make you change your mind, even if you’re happy with how he handled the action. I believe his poll numbers will rise in the aftermath, but the 2012 election is a long ways away.

Furthermore, poll after poll I’ve seen on the news shows that Americans care more about the economy and jobs than national security currently. I believe if the economy is still in the tank, that will take center stage in 2012.

There’s also historical evidence,

“However, political history also offers some important cautions about how short-lived such victories can be in the heat of a re-election effort. Take, for example, former President George H.W. Bush's sky-high poll numbers in the aftermath of the successful 1991 Gulf War, which made him seem virtually unbeatable by his likely Democratic opponents.

But as the 1992 campaign drew closer, Bush 41's numbers steadily dropped, and he lost his bid for a second term, thanks mostly to public anxiety over the struggling economy--an issue that also seems likely to dominate the upcoming 2012 campaign, at least for now.”

news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theticket/bin-ladens-death-is-a-pivotal-victory-for-obama-but-will-it-make-his-2012-re-election-bid-any-easier

I believe most Americans who examine his presidency will look at the whole thing, including his failures (of which there are many), instead of one shining success.

[Mad Dawg Wiccan]

I don't think it will have much impact. Obama will get a bump in the polls for now, but I believe it will fade pretty quickly as the economy takes center stage again.

[cme1201]

Agree, the killing of OBL is in deed great news for us, but, it's not something that will be shining come poll time in 2012, as the old political adage goes, "It's the economy, stupid." Until there is a sever up turn in employment and salaries, he's floating, just keeping his head above water.

[floridayankee]

May 3, 2011 8:48:19 GMT -5 Mad Dawg Wiccan said:

I don't think it will have much impact. Obama will get a bump in the polls for now, but I believe it will fade pretty quickly as the economy takes center stage again.

The Obama 2012 campaign slogan..."Yes, I did!"

[Phoenix84]

May 3, 2011 8:48:21 GMT -5 cme1201 said:

Agree, the killing of OBL is in deed great news for us, but, it's not something that will be shining come poll time in 2012, as the old political adage goes, "It's the economy, stupid." Until there is a sever up turn in employment and salaries, he's floating, just keeping his head above water.

Agreed, most people don’t vote on one issue. And those who do likely have short memories.
His handling of military action in the middle east, exploding deficit, unemployment, Obamacare, will all play a factor.
As a side note, I don’t think it will affect the congressional or state elections at all.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

It will have a positive effect on Obama's image, but as a practical matter in the voting booth- it won't matter. Here's what will be on voter's minds:

Osama is dead; but I still need a job.
Osama is dead; but gasoline is still $4.50 a gallon
Osama is dead; but my grocery bill has gone up 20% to 40%
Osama is dead; but my purchasing power is being erroded daily

In short- it's the ECONOMY, stupid! George H.W. Bush's approval rating after Gulf War I: 92% in early 1991. By November of 1992, Bill Clinton was the President-elect.

[cme1201]

phenoix84 said: "Agreed, most people don’t vote on one issue. And those who do likely have short memories."

The one's who are 1 issue voters will see this as a type of betrayal, with his insistence that we will be out of the wars (Drawn down forces in Iraq and Afghanistan) with in 2 years of his election, now he is footing around in Libya and Syria, his Leading Military adviser has stated we would stay in Iraq as long as needed if they ask.

With the death of OBL Obama could declare victory in the war on terror and bring all troops home, which would be a great swing for his poll numbers as long as he doesn't turn and place us into a war (or peacekeeping mission) in other ME states.

Just my 2 cent's on the matter.

[billisonboard]

7 8 postings and all rational thoughts have been said. And well said IM(not so)HO.

(of course all the Obama worshippers and haters have yet to be heard from)

[cme1201]

deminmaine said: "I don't think that this will have an effect beyond showing to some that Obama can make a strong decision on a difficult issue."

he showed that when he allowed snipers to kill Pirates in the Somalia area, these are not really difficult issues, difficult issues are when a friend gets in trouble with the law and you decide to decry the police for doing the job they are paid for, to serve and protect. The difficulty in the proceeding case was keeping his mouth shut until all the facts are in.

[floridayankee]

May 3, 2011 8:53:56 GMT -5 Phoenix84 said:

Agreed, most people don’t vote on one issue.

Sadly, too many actually do....that issue being the (D) or (R) next to the name on the ballot.

[deziloooooo]

I agree here...

"Furthermore, poll after poll I’ve seen on the news shows that Americans care more about the economy and jobs than national security currently. I believe if the economy is still in the tank, that will take center stage in 2012."

However one of the disses of the POTUS is he can't make decisions...he can and has.

As Woodward did say last night , remember he wrote the recent book , "Obama's War ", about his decision in Afghanistan, that Obama is a pragmatic President, one who basically works from the middle after all considerations of the topic.

Example, military wanted 40 thousand more troops, [really to win the war 80,000] and a more open ended one with no or few time lines. Biden wanted 20, 000 troops, mostly emphasize going after al Quida in Pakistan and disrupting the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, but no nation building and Obama settled on 30, 000 troops, right in the middle. Lots more to that too but not here.

I like a thinking President, and have found him very strong on making decisions after all considerations were done, some good , some not so good, but I can accept that.

Others want a more Bush style, and never admit or change strategy.

It depends on what the American Public see as the election gets closer.

Were we in such dire financial straits, so much worse then we thought thus it is taking longer for a recovery, are they willing to admit, the normal unemployment accepted rates of 4/5 % unemployment are a rate of the past and in the future it will be historically higher.

Has the President done anything about substantially reducing the deficit , which will mean visiting the entitlements , even if not as drastically that some, thinking tea Party types would want, to drastic in his mind for all at once, and to hard in results on the American populace, especially on the social programs we are faced with today, but still a strong effort to get it all under control/.
These are the things that I think will be looked at and we will have to see.

However , the man can make Presidential decisions, no matter what some here say, and gutsy ones too, that is a absolute.

Now many might not like his calls, that I agree, but here we will have to see how it plays out.

So far, for me, overall, no not all decisions, come on now, as I like to say, walking on water is not something he does, but over all, I am happy as of right now with him as POTUS.

[Phoenix84]

"Yes, and Ross Perot siphoned off about 19% of the vote, most of whom would have otherwise probably voted for Bush. At this point there is no comparable phenomena awaiting the 2012 race."

Yes, but I don't see Obama's poll numbers jumping from around 40% to 92% because he bagged OBL.

[marshabar1]

PBS is all oooh oooh ooooh game changer blah blah blah. . . .

That's what they think.

[ed1066]

I don't see this incident as affecting the 2012 election very much. It's only May of 2011, the election is 18 months away! That's an eternity in the world of politics. As several astute posters have already mentioned, when Americans go into the booth in November of 2012, I doubt bin Laden being capped 18 months prior will be on their minds, they will be thinking about jobs, gas prices, illegal immigration, health care and debt. At least that's what I'll be thinking about, and Obama's record on those is pretty dismal. His record on killing heinous terrorist shitbags is awesome right now, but I don't think it's going to carry him through...

[marshabar1]

Blammy has plenty of time to do that doodoo that he do so well. . .

[Mkitty is pro kitty]

It will help Obama some, but probably not as much as if it were a Republican president.

when a friend gets in trouble with the law and you decide to decry the police for doing the job they are paid for, to serve and protect. The difficulty in the proceeding case was keeping his mouth shut until all the facts are in.

If that's your Trump card, it's an awfully sad one. Compare that to Katrina, flip-flopping and Romneycare, being a birther (Huckabee, Trump, etc.), and bankrupting casinos. Now those are real albatrosses.

So is this what it's going to be like until the election? Focusing most of your energy on Obama's negatives (yes, they should be dealt with, but you can say something so many times), while little is spent on the Republican candidates? FYI, election time is only about a year and half away...






tick tock.

[Angel!]

May 3, 2011 9:42:31 GMT -5 floridayankee said:

May 3, 2011 8:53:56 GMT -5 Phoenix84 said:

Agreed, most people don’t vote on one issue.

Sadly, too many actually do....that issue being the (D) or (R) next to the name on the ballot.

Funny, but also sadly true.

PBS is all oooh oooh ooooh game changer blah blah blah. . . .

That's what they think.

Someone is sounding a little bitter. Is it that hard to just admit that something good happened.

[cme1201]

Mkitty says your fired wrote: "If that's your Trump card, it's an awfully sad one"

You know, no trump card needed kitty, I believe he learned a hard leason with that instance, as "teachable" moment if you will that some times it's best to stop and think not just blather and run to defend someone with no real facts.

Mkitty said: "while little is spent on the Republican candidates?"

And who exactly has stated that they are running? Obama has pointedly stated he will run, After a nice long chat with Marco Rubio it seems he understands why he was placed in office and will not seek election this term, which is the proper position to take for a JUNIOR Senator. So Who exacty would you like to make your next woe is me all blame on Obama canidate?

Again, when you can put together a real arguement we can have a discussion, until then Keep you 1 liner zero point post from being directed at me.

And since you are so good at bleeting at the sheep, and only using part of my comment, I will use the whole thing here.

deminmaine said: "I don't think that this will have an effect beyond showing to some that Obama can make a strong decision on a difficult issue."

he showed that when he allowed snipers to kill Pirates in the Somalia area, these are not really difficult issues, difficult issues are when a friend gets in trouble with the law and you decide to decry the police for doing the job they are paid for, to serve and protect. The difficulty in the proceeding case was keeping his mouth shut until all the facts are in.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

President Obama did a great job getting Osama bin Laden when the facts were laid out to him, and the options were on the table. Good choice to go in and attempt to capture him. There's really very little about this specific operation I disagree with.

However, it's increasingly obvious that the intelligence that led us to bin laden was the direct result of policies President Obama opposed. In fact, President Obama ENDED the very CIA interrogation program (and this is true whether Peter King is correct about water boarding or not- so whether or not that claim is accurate is immaterial) that led to the capture of Osama bin Laden.

In fact, if we had been following a battlefield policy (assuming we were ever even on the battlefield in Afghanistan-- because another major point is that in the early days after 9/11 the lame stream media was all over the fact that "Afghanistan is a landlocked country 7,000 miles away" and many Democrats came out against putting boots on the ground (although, they read the tea leaves later and voted to authorize the use of force).

In fact, you'd have to have lived it and been paying attention at the time, but for a few minutes there after the attacks you had several Democrat's knee-jerk react to the attacks and begin to basically echo Obama's pastor at the time, Rev. Jeremiah Wright that the attacks were our fault, and the result of our presence in the middle east, and our policy towards Israel. Yes, it's 100% accurate, it is completely true, and no- I'm not going to go scrounging around for the quotes. The immediate reaction from the public was STFU, which Democrats, in the interest of political expediency, did.

The bottom line- my point in bringing all this up is this: Yes, Obama gets some well-deserved credit for making the call; but-- and it's a pretty big but-- he mainly gets credit for not interferring with the intelligence and military community who got us to the doorstep of OBL's compound. In many prior instances, Obama was a direct obstacle to the exact kind of battlefield intelligence gathering that led to the possibility of such a raid.

In fact, it's still unclear as a result of Obama's incoherent policy, which terrorists we have to "arrest" and "mirandize" vs. which we can just shoot, or put in Gitmo.

[hello fromWarsaw]

Depends on how much longer the Pubs can screw up the recovery, and how many people continue to fall for theirdoom and gloom BS. Obama 52%, Romney 48%.

[Deleted]

So, how will OBL's death affect the 2012 elections

The American people have an incredibly short memory. At most I would guess that President Obama will get 100 extra votes for the death of OBL. With Americans it's a what have you done for me lately mind set. That's why welfare programs are such a great government program. You get to buy people's votes monthly.

[safeharbor37]

Obama benefits from the fact that a large number of Muslims believe that he is a closet Muslim, so he gets a pass on some things. Kind of like how Nixon's anti-communist credentials made it possible for him to attempt rapprochement with China. So maybe Obama can benefit from the death of Osama and avoid most of the negative consequences.
One rap against Obama was his complete lack of experience in international affairs, but he seems to be dealing well with international problems now so, given that in addition to his now soon to be four years of experience, he may have removed that albatross from his neck.
The real issue is, will Obama's success in finding and eliminating Osama be sufficient to overcome his negatives as regards the economy? If the economy perks up, particularly if it's a gradual continuous improvement, Game Over!
Of course this assumes a lot, that all issues are on the table. Lot's of "stuff" can happen in a year or so, turning it into a, New Game!

[Angel!]

Obama benefits from the fact that a large number of Muslims believe that he is a closet Muslim

I'm calling BS on this. A lot of non-muslims seem concerned that he is a muslim, but I've never heard any muslims say they think he is muslim.

[safeharbor37]

but I've never heard any muslims say they think he is muslim.

That dear is 'cause you don't listen real good.
I've heard any number of interviews with people all over the world, particularly in Islamic countries and Africa where they refer to Obama as a brother and it isn't necessarily racial. The problem with people like you is that you listen only to opinion makers and don't pay attention to what real people actually say.

[ed1066]

May 3, 2011 14:51:56 GMT -5 safeharbor37 said:

but I've never heard any muslims say they think he is muslim.

That dear is 'cause you don't listen real good.
I've heard any number of interviews with people all over the world, particularly in Islamic countries and Africa where they refer to Obama as a brother and it isn't necessarily racial. The problem with people like you is that you listen only to opinion makers and don't pay attention to what real people actually say.

Khaddafi regularly referred to Obama as "my son". Probably he doesn't do it much now, but he did...

[Angel!]

May 3, 2011 14:51:56 GMT -5 safeharbor37 said:

but I've never heard any muslims say they think he is muslim.

That dear is 'cause you don't listen real good.
I've heard any number of interviews with people all over the world, particularly in Islamic countries and Africa where they refer to Obama as a brother and it isn't necessarily racial. The problem with people like you is that you listen only to opinion makers and don't pay attention to what real people actually say.

Ok, could you provide some examples/links? You know, for the people like me that don't listen real good.

[Mkitty is pro kitty]

Yes, Obama gets some well-deserved credit for making the call; but-- and it's a pretty big but-- he mainly gets credit for not interferring with the intelligence and military community

Well if you make a call, then you are interfering in one way or another. Once the President makes the call, the intelligence and military does what he says. Since your statement was so utterly self-contradictory, I decided to give you some extra help. Or do you mean "not interfering" because the President isn't somewhere in the front lines? Was your statement self contradictory or silly? Your call.

"Another lauder is John Ullyot, a former Marine intelligence officer and ex-Republican spokesman for the Senate Armed Services Committee, who pointed out yesterday that Obama rejected more cautious options (a bombing attack, or a joint attack with the Pakistanis) in favor of the 'gutsy call'"
www.newsworks.org/index.php/homepage-feature/item/18684-the-political-benefits-of-a-qgutsyq-call

And note it was a call between a few choices, not a yes/no rubber stamp sort of deal.

That's why welfare programs are such a great government program. You get to buy people's votes monthly.

People seem to get welfare no matter who's President. You might as well say they vote for whoever because he lets them breathe air. So next time you play your little anti-welfare tune on your drum set, you may want to untwist your pretzel drumstick.

[safeharbor37]

Ok, could you provide some examples/links? You know, for the people like me that don't listen real good.

No. Besides that it would take a lot of time. I won't have much time for this board, or for researching for a while.
If I'm the only one who notices, so be it.
[edit] Sorry. That was too damn easy:

www.forbes.com/2009/02/24/muslim-barack-obama-opinions-contributors_islamic_president.html know President Obama is not Muslim, but I am tempted nevertheless to think that he is, as are most Muslims I know. In a very unscientific oral poll, ranging from family members to Muslim acquaintances, many of us feel, just as African-Americans did for the non-black but culturally leaning African-American President Bill Clinton, that we have our first American Muslim president in Barack Hussein Obama.

[Angel!]

May 3, 2011 15:04:14 GMT -5 safeharbor37 said:

No. Besides that it would take a lot of time. I won't have much time for this board, or for researching for a while.
If I'm the only one who notices, so be it.

Fair enough, but I'm going back to calling BS.

Frankly, I would think any muslims that truly believe Obama is a muslim probably don't like him. He would be seen as a coward & someone embarrassed enough by his religion to lie & hide it. Not something that buys you a lot of goodwill.

[Deleted]

I've heard any number of interviews with people all over the world, particularly in Islamic countries and Africa where they refer to Obama as a brother and it isn't necessarily racial. The problem with people like you is that you listen only to opinion makers and don't pay attention to what real people actually say.

Maybe but that doesn't have anything to do with the election (cause they don't vote here). I think the other person was talking about people here thinking he is a Muslim, which if anything would hurt him.

The elections are a long way off. I still think that President Obama has hurt the Democrat cause for not only this year, but for years to come.