RESOURCES

[dothedd]

Mayo Clinic Proceedings: Influenza Vaccines: From Surveillance Through Production to ProtectionA MUST READ:http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.com/content/85/3/257.full

[dothedd]

MEDICINE:

Enhanced: The Need for a Global HIV Vaccine

LINK: www.aidscience.org/Science/Science--Klausner_et_al_300(5628)2036.htm

[dothedd]

Economy May Reverse Course When Fed Buying Ends: Gross

Wednesday, 2 Mar 2011

The expected end of the Federal Reserve's Treasury-buying in June may not bode well for the US economy, with "dramatic consequences in the reverse direction" likely, according to Pimco managing director Bill Gross.

Among the likely outcomes when the Fed walks away from the second leg of quantitative easing (QE 2) will be substantially higher interest rates and an economy that may not be able to stand on its own, Gross wrote in his monthly analysis.

"A successful handoff from public to private credit creation has yet to be accomplished, and it is that handoff that ultimately will determine the outlook for real growth and the potential reversal in our astronomical deficits and escalating debt levels," he wrote.

If the economy cannot manage after the Fed's expected end to Treasury purchases on June 30, "then the QEs will have been a colossal flop," he added.

The comments come as Fed officials weigh the proper exit strategy from the nearly $2 trillion money-printing program the central bank embarked on following the global financial crisis.

Recent indications from Fed governors are that the central bank may consider extending the date for the end of QE 2, though it will keep the amount of purchases the same. Expectations are low for now that the Fed would add a third leg, with that likely changing only in the case of a severe adverse reaction from the financial markets.

At its core, the buying of Treasurys from financial institutions aimed to cut interest rates and pump cash into the economy, preferably in risk assets such as stocks. The result, in Chairman Ben Bernanke's words, would be a "wealth effect" that would instill confidence in the economy and propel growth.

But the program has achieved only partial success.



While the stock market has soared during both legs of QE, unemployment has remained stubbornly high and the housing market has displayed few signs of recovery. At the same time, the soaring debt and deficits have increased inflation expectations as commodity prices have surged.

Gross said critics of the Fed easing programs legitimately could ask whether the "policies actually heal, as opposed to cover up, symptoms of an unhealthy economy."

Interest rates, he said, are probably 1.50 percentage points too low—based on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield compared to expected economic growth—and will gain once the Fed walks away.

The central bank, along with other sovereign entities in China, Japan and elsewhere, account for 60 percent of Treasury ownership. Since QE 2 has begun, the Fed has been responsible for 70 percent of all Treasury buys, Gross said.

"Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn't?" he asked. "I don't know."

He called the Treasury-buying a "Sammy Scheme" (apparently after Uncle Sam) and said it "is as foolproof as Ponzi and Madoff until...until...well, until it isn't."

[dothedd]

March 2, 2011

The UN has imposed sanctions on Libya and international community is stepping up support for the opposition force, but Gaddafi is showing no signs of backing down, leaving no end in sight to the conflict. The ongoing chaos in Libya and elsewhere in the volatile region is helping gold, which reached a record high today. Gold got off to a rough start in 2011, but the combination of the weaker U.S. dollar (which typically moves inversely to gold) and the political instability in the oil-rich Middle East/North Africa region have renewed investor interest in the yellow metal. Silver, which has benefited from growing investment interest in recent months, also set a new high today-reaching a level unseen since 1980, when its price hit an all-time record of more than $50 an ounce.

Now, just a day after Saudi Arabia's pledge to take up the slack from Libya's reduced oil production helped oil prices cool, there are increasing concerns about protests erupting in Iran, OPEC's second-biggest oil producer. The government has reportedly arrested opposition leaders in an effort to short circuit planned mass protests, but there are reports of tens of thousands of protestors marching and clashing with security forces all the same. Oil prices rallied strongly today.

Iran pumped 3.7 million barrels of oil per day in February, a much more difficult amount to replace should it come to that, especially considering supply will already be strained to replace Libya's output.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil producer, is another key country to watch. The country overall is mostly Sunni, but Shiites are the majority in Dharhan, a major administrative center for the Saudi oil industry. The Saudi King has pledged monetary aide to the poor to prevent similar unrest from erupting. Even more than in the case of Iran, a disruption of the oil industry in Saudi Arabia would create an oil crisis worldwide.

Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke warned of the very concern that we have, that a sustain rise in oil prices would threaten economic growth. Higher prices for oil, the lifeblood of the economy, will get passed down to the retail level, acting as an effective tax on consumers and decreasing their spending power and willingness to spend, sparking a vicious cycle similar to what we occurred in 2007 and 2008.

Late last week, the Commerce Department revised its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2010 downward to a 2.8 percent annualized rate from the previously reported 3.2 percent, as state and local governments slashed more spending than originally forecasted while household spending grew a little less than was previously estimated. Consumers appear to have taken the rise of prices in stride so far, but with pent-up inflationary pressures caused by rising commodity prices likely to hit the retail level eventually, the Fed could find itself in an undesirable position of needing to manage inflation while at the same time still having to deal with a soft economy hampered by lackluster housing and job markets, and now a sharply higher oil.

[dothedd]

Once upon a time the government had a vast scrap yard in the middle of a desert. Congress said, "Someone may steal from it at night." So they created a night watchman position and hired a person for the job.

Then Congress said, "How does the watchman do his job without instruction?"

So they created a planning department and hired two people, one person to write the instructions, and one person to do time studies.

Then Congress said, "How will we know the night watchman is doing the tasks correctly?" So they created a Quality Control department and hired two people. One to do the studies and one to write the reports.

Then Congress said, "How are these people going to get paid?" So They created two positions: a time keeper and a payroll officer, then hired two people.

Then Congress said, "Who will be accountable for all of these people?" So theycreated an administrative section and hired three people, an Administrative Officer, Assistant Administrative Officer, and a Legal Secretary.

Then Congress said, "We have had this command in operation for one Year and we are $918,000 over budget, we must cutback." So they laid off the night watchman.

NOW slowly, let it sink in.

Quietly, we go like sheep to slaughter.

Does anybody remember the reason given for the establishment of the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY..... during the Carter Administration?

Anybody?

Anything?

No?

Didn't think so!

Bottom line. We've spent several hundred billion dollars in support of an agency....the reason for which not one person who reads this can remember!

Ready?? It was very simple..and at the time, everybody thought it very appropriate.

The Department of Energy was instituted on 8/04/1977, TO LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.
Hey, pretty efficient, huh???

AND NOW IT'S 2010 -- 33 YEARS LATER -- AND THE BUDGET FOR THIS "NECESSARY" DEPARTMENT IS AT $24.2 BILLION A YEAR. IT HAS 16,000 FEDERAL EMPLOYEES AND APPROXIMATELY 100,000 CONTRACT EMPLOYEES; AND LOOK AT THE JOB IT HAS DONE!
(THIS IS WHERE YOU SLAP YOUR FOREHEAD AND SAY, "WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?")



AN INTERESTING READ:

www.oe.energy.gov/budget.htm

AND NOW ITS MARCH 2011 (You do the math.)

[dothedd]

Thu Mar 3, 2011 3:17pm EST

Fixes references to market strategist in paragraphs 5-6

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were up solidly on Thursday as investors were convinced the latest batch of economic data and falling oil prices could be strong catalysts to move the market higher.

Investors shifted focus from oil to the improvements shown in recent economic data a day before the February U.S. employment report.

The "whisper number" among traders is that the non-farm payrolls will rise by over 200,000, compared to a median estimate of 185,000 by economists polled by Reuters.

Industrial stocks led the market higher, boosted by a weaker dollar and an improving outlook for global demand. The S&P industrial index .GSPI gained 2.4 percent, with Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) up 3.2 percent to $104.25.

"The package of data from this week points to a stronger-than-consensus estimate for tomorrow," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey, referring to a rise in non-farm payrolls.

She added if payrolls do rise more than expected, stocks would resume their uptrend that had been interrupted due to geopolitical concerns.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 200.18 points, or 1.66 percent, at 12,266.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 21.73 points, or 1.66 percent, at 1,330.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 51.24 points, or 1.86 percent, at 2,799.31.

Stocks have shown resilience in the face of economic headwinds. The broad S&P 500 is down only about 1 percent from a peak in late February after falling around 3 percent due to growing violence in oil-producer Libya.

However, volume continues to be below average on days when the market rallies, which has caused some traders to be skeptical about the durability of the rally.

"We're up a ton, but the feeling is apathetic," said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities, a New York Stock Exchange floor broker.

The Arab League said a peace plan for Libya was under consideration. The plan put forth by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, if successful, could end a major headwind for equities.

Oil prices retreated from near 2-1/2 year highs. Brent crude futures for April delivery were down $2.02 at $114.33 a barrel, after ending at $116.35 on Wednesday, the highest close since August 2008.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to 368,000 -- a 2-1/2 year low -- one day after a robust report on private-sector hiring.

In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February, slightly above forecasts and higher than the January result.

Several top U.S. retailers posted bigger-than-expected sales gains for February. The S&P retail index .RLX rose 1.1 percent.

[dothedd]

Historical Gold Prices

Latest 3/4/11
Prices Gold:
$1,431.00 Silver:
$35.58 Platinum:
$1,844.00 Palladium:

Thursday Mar 03, 2011 $1,421.50
Wednesday Mar 02, 2011 $1,435.50
Tuesday Mar 01, 2011 $1,420.75
Monday Feb 28, 2011 $1,411.00
Friday Feb 25, 2011 $1,402.50
Thursday Feb 24, 2011 $1,411.50
Wednesday Feb 23, 2011 $1,409.50
Tuesday Feb 22, 2011 $1,401.00
Monday Feb 21, 2011 $1,403.00
Friday Feb 18, 2011 $1,383.50

www.onlygold.com/tutorialpages/PricesY2KFS.asp

[dothedd]

World Bank Cuts US Economic Forecast on ‘Growth Pause’
Wednesday, June 8, 2011 07:02 AM
By:

Emerging-market economies, growing almost three times faster than their developed counterparts, need to speed spending cuts and interest-rate increases as they fight inflation and overheating, the World Bank said.

The Washington-based institution lowered its growth forecast for the world economy this year to 3.2 percent from a January estimate of 3.3 percent, to reflect Japan’s earthquake and political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The World Bank left unchanged a prediction for a global rebound to 3.6 percent in 2012.

Developing countries “have put the crisis-fighting stage of the recovery behind them,” Andrew Burns, the World Bank’s manager of global macroeconomics, told reporters yesterday. “They now need to be reorienting themselves towards establishing the conditions that are going to allow them to have strong growth in years to come.”

While developed nations contend with high unemployment and Europe’s debt crisis, many emerging economies with strong expansions are yet to remove fiscal stimulus enacted to cushion the global recession, according to the World Bank. Real interest rates are low or negative in many countries even as policy makers from India to Peru raise borrowing costs, according to the bank.

China’s Inflation

Developing nations also need more flexible currencies, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report said. In China, the government is “very unlikely” to meet its 4 percent inflation target for the year, with the rate set to stay at about 5 percent for “a few more months,” Ardo Hansson, the lender’s chief economist for China, said at a briefing in Beijing.

The World Bank, which was established after World War II to fight poverty, offers financial and technical assistance to countries, including $1.5 billion in loans to help improve India’s rural roads last year.

High-income economies are seen growing 2.2 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012, the report said. That compares with 6.3 percent and 6.2 percent in the emerging regions, which include nations from Indonesia to South Africa, according to the bank’s report.

U.S. Growth

The bank cut its forecast for a U.S. expansion to 2.6 percent this year from the January estimate of 2.8 percent. The agency expects 2.9 percent growth next year and recent economic data point to a “growth pause,” Burns said. He said the bank doesn’t see a “double-dip” as likely in the U.S.

Emerging markets now account for almost half of global crude-oil demand and China absorbs 40 percent of the world’s metal supplies, contributing to the increase in prices observed since the recovery, the bank said in the report. Oil prices are up 37 percent in the past year. Copper surged to a record $10,190 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange on Feb. 15 as mining companies struggled to keep pace with rising consumption.

The commodities developments call for a change in mindset from those countries, which have become key players and must embrace the challenges and responsibilities that come with it, Burns said.

India’s Growth

“Developing countries are going to increasingly have to not look at these as external events that are imposed upon them,” such as an oil price shock, Burns said. “Increasingly these are reflections of a strong growth that they have.”

China’s growth will slow to 9.3 percent this year, from 10.3 percent in 2010, and be 8.7 percent in 2012, the bank said. India will grow 8 percent this year and 8.4 percent next year, it said.

The rise in commodity prices and strong capital inflows have contributed to faster inflation, which in developing countries was close to 7 percent in April from a year earlier, more than 3 percentage points higher than in July 2009, according to the report.

Policy makers “will need to make fuller use of all the tools at their disposal to keep inflation under control,” the World Bank said. “While the more unstable capital inflows that characterized the third quarter of 2010 have abated, many of the underlying conditions that attracted those flows remain in place.”

Food Prices

The World Bank said that food prices in developing countries may increase this year and next, even if international prices decline.

Risks to the global economy also include continued turmoil in Arab countries, where civil unrest has lifted oil prices. Higher energy costs could also boost food prices further, the bank said.

Persistent uncertainty on the fiscal situation of countries in the euro region, as well as debt levels in the U.S. and Japan, represent another threat, according to the report.

The World Bank projects growth of 1.7 percent in 2011 and 1.8 percent in 2012 in the 17-country euro area, compared with a forecast in January for 1.4 percent growth this year and 2 percent next year. Japan will expand 0.1 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2012, compared with forecasts of 1.8 percent and 2 percent at the beginning of the year.

“Further financial stress may emerge, as monetary policy in high-income countries begins to tighten,” the bank said.

The World Bank based its projections on market prices.