djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2024 13:04:04 GMT -5
early in the year i was figuring that Democrats would easily take the House and lose the Senate.
two months ago, i was feeling pretty insecure about the House, and the Senate seemed out of reach.
now, i see a very narrow path to victory for Democrats in the Senate, and i think they will win easily in the House.
this is a thread to discuss all things related to 2024 legislature.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2024 13:36:17 GMT -5
three things inspired this thread. here is the first one: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2024/when Biden debated Trump, Democrats were up 0.6% in the generic ballot at 46%. i have discussed the importance of this number many times on the board, but feel free to ask if you missed the many diatribes. by the time Biden withdrew, Democratic congressional support had PLUMMETED. they were then at 44%, and TRAILING the GOP by 0.7%, in the space of two weeks. SINCE THAT TIME, Democrats have gained 3.2%. that is an insane amount of gain in six weeks. and that has driven them to an election cycle high +2.6%. and unlike the electoral college, which favors the GOP by 2-3%, this number will translate to seats. the second thing that inspired this thread is that California contains more competitive Republican congressional seats than any other state, according to at least one legislative analyst. and, finally, Democrats are starting to talk about some of the low hanging fruit in the Senate. they are not there yet. not even close. but here are the key seats in that race: Tester (MT). he should be a shoo-in. he is trailing by 6. Brown (OH). he should also be a shoo-in. he is leading by maybe 3. Cruz (TX). he is vulnerable, but leading by 4%. Scott (FL). this one is getting almost no attention, but Rick Scott is only leading by 1%. most outlets are not considering this one competitive. but i am. Democrats need to win two of those. the best odds are on Brown and Mucarsel-Powel winning, imo. and that would give them 50. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 8, 2024 13:39:31 GMT -5
i would strongly suggest that those of you interested in keeping the courts out of Republican hands consider supporting Debbie in her Senate race in Florida. she has a hyphenated last name, and i am not going to bother with it. you can find out more about her at debbieforflorida.com
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 8, 2024 13:44:17 GMT -5
side note: i see a lot of promising women and democratic candidates in this election.
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Post by seriousthistime on Sept 9, 2024 18:20:49 GMT -5
NOTE: Mark Kelly is only leading by 1.5%. i am presuming he will win, but it is far from certain. I don't believe he is up for reelection this cycle. I think it's Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego. That's for Kirsten Sinema's seat, if I'm not mistaken. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2024 18:28:00 GMT -5
NOTE: Mark Kelly is only leading by 1.5%. i am presuming he will win, but it is far from certain. I don't believe he is up for reelection this cycle. I think it's Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego. That's for Kirsten Sinema's seat, if I'm not mistaken. oh, crap. was i reading the wrong year? i must have been. |
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 9, 2024 18:53:17 GMT -5
NOTE: Mark Kelly is only leading by 1.5%. i am presuming he will win, but it is far from certain. I don't believe he is up for reelection this cycle. I think it's Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego. That's for Kirsten Sinema's seat, if I'm not mistaken. Last I checked Lake was behind, is that still the case? That’s another special kind of crazy MAGA person who deserves to lose her election. I wish I could say MTG might get defeated. She won’t. We’re stuck with our little MAGA loon until she decides to quit to participate in Dancing with the Stars. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2024 20:04:31 GMT -5
I don't believe he is up for reelection this cycle. I think it's Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego. That's for Kirsten Sinema's seat, if I'm not mistaken. Last I checked Lake was behind, is that still the case? That’s another special kind of crazy MAGA person who deserves to lose her election. I wish I could say MTG might get defeated. She won’t. We’re stuck with our little MAGA loon until she decides to quit to participate in Dancing with the Stars. yeah. she has been consistently behind. 5-10% depending on the poll. |
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Post by tbop77 on Oct 4, 2024 12:34:53 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2024 14:12:56 GMT -5
in a word: yes.
you want more than a word?
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Oct 4, 2024 14:39:02 GMT -5
in a word: yes. you want more than a word? No, I'm just happy! I did hear he was going on conservative news shows begging for money.  |
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seriousthistime
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Post by seriousthistime on Oct 4, 2024 15:38:57 GMT -5
Yep, I've donated to Allred (opposing Cruz), Debbie (opposing Scott), and Gallego (opposing Lake). I don't live in any of those states, but I'm banking on Harris/Walz to win this one and I'd like them to have a nice margin in the Senate so they can get things done. And if the Dems don't win the White House, then at least having a few more Dem senators will make it more difficult for Trump to get things done.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 4, 2024 16:36:45 GMT -5
Allred has Kinzinger leading a coalition of Republicans for Allred - that can’t be good for Ted and his punchable face. Bless his heart. |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 14, 2024 10:06:27 GMT -5
Internal Republican polling released for the Senate races and things are grim.
Cruz is only up 1 point. Sherid Brown is up six in Ohio. Gallego is up 4 against Lake.
Speaking of Kari Lake, she was cringe worthy at the Trump rally there, proclaiming him the best leader ever - can’t remember if that was nationally or world wide. Such an ass kisser.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 14, 2024 11:03:42 GMT -5
If for nothing else, I'll be glad this election season will be over. No more friggin text messages asking for donations for a while.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 14, 2024 12:13:02 GMT -5
If for nothing else, I'll be glad this election season will be over. No more friggin text messages asking for donations for a while. I just want the Presidential race to enter its next phase. The suspense is killing me. |
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 14, 2024 15:35:17 GMT -5
Internal Republican polling released for the Senate races and things are grim. Cruz is only up 1 point. Sherid Brown is up six in Ohio. Gallego is up 4 against Lake. Speaking of Kari Lake, she was cringe worthy at the Trump rally there, proclaiming him the best leader ever - can’t remember if that was nationally or world wide. Such an ass kisser. Kari Lake has no personality of her own. 30 years reading the teleprompter has left her a shell of a person. She needs to read the script - and she chose the one Trump wrote. Gallego - I can’t figure out if anyone really likes him, or just that Kari Lake is worse. His campaign has him being vanilla ice cream. He is just blah. (I love good vanilla ice cream - I don’t know a better analogy. A potato chip is without salt? White rice, no sauce? Plain noodles?) |
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 14, 2024 15:37:41 GMT -5
Internal Republican polling released for the Senate races and things are grim. Cruz is only up 1 point. Sherid Brown is up six in Ohio. Gallego is up 4 against Lake. Speaking of Kari Lake, she was cringe worthy at the Trump rally there, proclaiming him the best leader ever - can’t remember if that was nationally or world wide. Such an ass kisser. Kari Lake has no personality of her own. 30 years reading the teleprompter has left her a shell of a person. She needs to read the script - and she chose the one Trump wrote. Gallego - I can’t figure out if anyone really likes him, or just that Kari Lake is worse. His campaign has him being vanilla ice cream. He is just blah. (I love good vanilla ice cream - I don’t know a better analogy. A potato chip is without salt? White rice, no sauce? Plain noodles?) white bread? |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 14, 2024 18:13:03 GMT -5
White bread looks good compared to the deep fried hot mess that is Lake.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 14, 2024 18:28:29 GMT -5
White bread looks good compared to the deep fried hot mess that is Lake. Lake? Or very shallow little puddle?  |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2024 14:48:36 GMT -5
Internal Republican polling released for the Senate races and things are grim. Cruz is only up 1 point. Sherid Brown is up six in Ohio. Gallego is up 4 against Lake. Speaking of Kari Lake, she was cringe worthy at the Trump rally there, proclaiming him the best leader ever - can’t remember if that was nationally or world wide. Such an ass kisser. Kari Lake has no personality of her own. 30 years reading the teleprompter has left her a shell of a person. She needs to read the script - and she chose the one Trump wrote. Gallego - I can’t figure out if anyone really likes him, or just that Kari Lake is worse. His campaign has him being vanilla ice cream. He is just blah. (I love good vanilla ice cream - I don’t know a better analogy. A potato chip is without salt? White rice, no sauce? Plain noodles?) i like him. |
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 15, 2024 16:06:24 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Oct 15, 2024 16:08:53 GMT -5
I will get my old TV antenna out
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Oct 16, 2024 15:44:34 GMT -5
I will get my old TV antenna out Nah, I think those were UHF and VHF. Nor is it UVA or UVB, even in Arizona. Lake is making this up all on her own. |
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Post by moon/Laura on Oct 16, 2024 18:24:53 GMT -5
If for nothing else, I'll be glad this election season will be over. No more friggin text messages asking for donations for a while. I just want the Presidential race to enter its next phase. The suspense is killing me. |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 16, 2024 21:46:08 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 17, 2024 12:45:28 GMT -5
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