Why Trump won't win (opinion - Atlantic)

[Opti]

www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/why-trump-won-t-win/ar-AA1lyfSv?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=a73330c0f1b347c29fb7ac4950390081&ei=9


But amid all of the worrying, we might be losing sight of the most important fact: Trump’s chances of winning are slim.


Yes, recent polls appear to favor him. Yes, Joe Biden is an imperfect opponent. And yes, much could change over the next 11 months, potentially in Trump’s favor. But if Biden’s health holds, he is very likely to be reelected next year. It’s hard to imagine any Republican candidate galvanizing Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans to vote for the current president in the way that Trump will.



I’m not arguing that anyone who wants President Biden to win—and, more important, anyone who wants Trump to lose—should relax. To the contrary, Democrats, and any other sensible voters who oppose Trump, need to forcefully remind the American people about how disastrous he was as president and inform them of how much worse a second term would be. Thankfully, that is not a hard case to make.


I like this opinion piece. I see the GOPers falling apart, and I almost wonder if the former speaker left now, so it would be true that he was not in federal office at any time in 2024. Clean break.

[Opti]

This is what we really need to pay attention to for stopping Trump. MO. Electoral college: drop, change or modify now that Trump and his cronies have shown us its weak points.


But if the race is close enough in the right places, the undue power of rural voters in smaller or less populated states could tilt the outcome in his favor.

[happyhoix]

2016 there were a lot of enthusiastic Trump voters eager for some one who promised to empty the DC swamp. And Trump barely squeezed through. Then we got four years of his mouth, and GOPers like my MIL were worn out by the crassness. Enough stayed home and he lost.

Trump hasn’t gotten any better. But gas is also to 3 bucks here. My 401K finally started to go up in value after a long fallow period. If this continues, I think Trump will lack enthusiastic voters, and hope he will lose again.

Then I hope he goes away. Finally.

[gacpa]

I sincerely pray you all are right.  I can't take another four years of that fool.

[Opti]

Dec 15, 2023 15:19:39 GMT -5 gacpa said:

I sincerely pray you all are right.  I can't take another four years of that fool.

We have to do better than pray. And I pledge to do my part which may include things like designed tees and stickers.

And I wish one of our old posters would come back, but I will work on emailing, calling or sending interesting notes to elected officials from now until 2024 and beyond.

[Opti]

Dec 15, 2023 14:17:42 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

2016 there were a lot of enthusiastic Trump voters eager for some one who promised to empty the DC swamp. And Trump barely squeezed through. Then we got four years of his mouth, and GOPers like my MIL were worn out by the crassness. Enough stayed home and he lost.

Trump hasn’t gotten any better. But gas is also to 3 bucks here. My 401K finally started to go up in value after a long fallow period. If this continues, I think Trump will lack enthusiastic voters, and hope he will lose again.

Then I hope he goes away. Finally.

Trump is the Swamp. I knew it when he campaigned. I was not surprised it held true from nom on.

And I want to educate people. Gas prices are gas prices. They rarely have to do with federal policies. 

[gacpa]

Trump is indeed the swamp.  That is exactly what I told my mother in 2016 when he got elected.

Gas is 2.81 here between ATL and Athens.  Our investments just reached the level they were at two years ago.  I hope people will realize that who is in office does not bear a direct relationship to the cost of living or the value of an investment.  It is just one of many factors at play.

[Tennesseer]

About the MAGA folks:  

[djAdvocate]

Dec 15, 2023 14:17:42 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

2016 there were a lot of enthusiastic Trump voters eager for some one who promised to empty the DC swamp. And Trump barely squeezed through. Then we got four years of his mouth, and GOPers like my MIL were worn out by the crassness. Enough stayed home and he lost.

Trump hasn’t gotten any better. But gas is also to 3 bucks here. My 401K finally started to go up in value after a long fallow period. If this continues, I think Trump will lack enthusiastic voters, and hope he will lose again.

Then I hope he goes away. Finally.

well, he won't go away.  but he MIGHT get "deplatformed".

anyone think he won't run for president again?

he can't resist losing if he loses in 2024.  he will be doing so much losing that we will get tired of him losing.

just kidding.  i will never tire of him losing.

[happyhoix]

Dec 15, 2023 17:26:23 GMT -5 gacpa said:

Trump is indeed the swamp.  That is exactly what I told my mother in 2016 when he got elected.

Gas is 2.81 here between ATL and Athens.  Our investments just reached the level they were at two years ago.  I hope people will realize that who is in office does not bear a direct relationship to the cost of living or the value of an investment.  It is just one of many factors at play.

I know that and you know that but MAGA does not. When Biden first got elected MAGA people stuck stickers showing a comic drawing of Biden on the gas pumps - the cartoon was pointing at the price readout and saying ‘I did that.’

I kept peeling them off when I found them. I haven’t seen any in a while. If the interest rate keeps going down and gas goes down and the stock market doesn’t derail it will rob MAGA of their ‘we are in Hell’ talking point.

[Spellbound454]

Looks to me like a bury-your-head-in-the-sand article.

Trump's chances of winning are not "slim"

and the "flaws"  that ought to prevent people from voting, some people don't see as flaws.

[Opti]

Dec 17, 2023 9:24:26 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Looks to me like a bury-your-head-in-the-sand article.

Trump's chances of winning are not "slim"

and the "flaws"  that ought to prevent people from voting, some people don't see as flaws.

Trump won by manipulating the electoral college. We have a road map as to how he and his team played 2016 and 2020. He never won the popular vote plus the fraud that you are looking for is mostly coming from him and yes his foreign allies.

[djAdvocate]

in order for Trump to win one of TWO things needs to happen (or some combination of both):

1) fewer people vote. if the turnout drops he has a chance, because new voters are the key to a Biden victory.
2) he gets MORE votes than 2020. i have a hard time imagining that, but that is a case that is being made by some.

i think that Trump gets fewer votes than 2020.
if Biden ALSO gets fewer votes, then Trump COULD win.

[djAdvocate]

of course, he might be in jail by then, as well. who knows?

[busymom]

Dec 17, 2023 13:27:12 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

of course, he might be in jail by then, as well. who knows?

    From your mouth to God's ears.  The Donald is overdue for some jail time.

[Opti]

Dec 17, 2023 13:26:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

in order for Trump to win one of TWO things needs to happen (or some combination of both):

1) fewer people vote. if the turnout drops he has a chance, because new voters are the key to a Biden victory.
2) he gets MORE votes than 2020. i have a hard time imagining that, but that is a case that is being made by some.

i think that Trump gets fewer votes than 2020.
if Biden ALSO gets fewer votes, then Trump COULD win.

Remember the red wave that SCP and the right-wing spin machine was trying to sell us in 2016?

The thing about manifestation and sales is sometimes it does not work. And good salespeople move on. 
I really think the GOP opposition should leak all the many times he's told people including Christie that the US should just declare BK. 

ETA - Trump is marketing, and some of them don't seem to recognize when they have pushed too hard, etc. 

[billisonboard]

Dec 17, 2023 13:26:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

in order for Trump to win one of TWO things needs to happen (or some combination of both):

1) fewer people vote. if the turnout drops he has a chance, because new voters are the key to a Biden victory.
2) he gets MORE votes than 2020. i have a hard time imagining that, but that is a case that is being made by some.

i think that Trump gets fewer votes than 2020.
if Biden ALSO gets fewer votes, then Trump COULD win.

now if total turnout stays the same or increases and Trump gets fewer votes, or if Biden gets as many votes with a lower turnout, than Trump doesn't stand a chance.

[tallguy]

Dec 17, 2023 15:24:20 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 17, 2023 13:26:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

in order for Trump to win one of TWO things needs to happen (or some combination of both):

1) fewer people vote. if the turnout drops he has a chance, because new voters are the key to a Biden victory.
2) he gets MORE votes than 2020. i have a hard time imagining that, but that is a case that is being made by some.

i think that Trump gets fewer votes than 2020.
if Biden ALSO gets fewer votes, then Trump COULD win.

now if total turnout stays the same or increases and Trump gets fewer votes, or if Biden gets as many votes with a lower turnout, than Trump doesn't stand a chance.

Amazingly perceptive!  Are you a Poli Sci guy?   

[billisonboard]

Dec 17, 2023 17:14:21 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Dec 17, 2023 15:24:20 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

now if total turnout stays the same or increases and Trump gets fewer votes, or if Biden gets as many votes with a lower turnout, than Trump doesn't stand a chance.

Amazingly perceptive!  Are you a Poli Sci guy?   

I was trying to find a scenario, taking into account those covered by djAdvocate's possibilities that gave Trump a chance, in which Trump didn't have a chance. That was the only one I saw that worked.

[azucena]

I can't help but wonder if the 1M+ covid deaths took out enough Trump voters to tip the scales against him. That would be the ultimate karma. And, yes, I realize I'm morbid.

[billisonboard]

Dec 17, 2023 17:45:25 GMT -5 azucena said:

I can't help but wonder if the 1M+ covid deaths took out enough Trump voters to tip the scales against him. That would be the ultimate karma. And, yes, I realize I'm morbid.

That would be a great research project. You could ignore all deaths in states Biden carried. Than look state by state. For example, Trump won Texas by 600,000 votes and there have been 94,000 COVID deaths. Assuming that was 100% Trump supporters, there wouldn't be enough change. Utah 300,000/5,500. florida 350,000/87,000. Not seeing it.

[Opti]

Dec 17, 2023 18:48:30 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 17, 2023 17:45:25 GMT -5 azucena said:

I can't help but wonder if the 1M+ covid deaths took out enough Trump voters to tip the scales against him. That would be the ultimate karma. And, yes, I realize I'm morbid.

That would be a great research project. You could ignore all deaths in states Biden carried. Than look state by state. For example, Trump won Texas by 600,000 votes and there have been 94,000 COVID deaths. Assuming that was 100% Trump supporters, there wouldn't be enough change. Utah 300,000/5,500. florida 350,000/87,000. Not seeing it.

I think it has influenced those left behind. 

[billisonboard]

Dec 17, 2023 18:51:39 GMT -5 Opti said:

Dec 17, 2023 18:48:30 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

That would be a great research project. You could ignore all deaths in states Biden carried. Than look state by state. For example, Trump won Texas by 600,000 votes and there have been 94,000 COVID deaths. Assuming that was 100% Trump supporters, there wouldn't be enough change. Utah 300,000/5,500. florida 350,000/87,000. Not seeing it.

I think it has influenced those left behind. 

That would be a good polling question. Have you seen any?