How likely is a civil war?

[happyhoix]

I’ve seen a lot of articles like this:  

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4119386-more-say-violence-could-be-necessary-to-restore-trump-to-white-house-survey/

Some of the far right MAGAs saying if Trump loses in 2024, it will force them to take up arms against the radical left. 

Personally I don’t see how Trump can win, unless Biden really implodes in a very dramatic way. We already know the GOP is losing moderate women due to the abortion issue. He won’t gain any additional independent voters over what he had last time, and will probably lose more due to all his various legal problems. He lost by a pretty fair number last time, and this time it’s bound to be the same or worse. 

Trump is certainly highly motivated to win, if for no other reason than being able to get the DOJ to drop all the legal cases against him, and to smite his enormous enemy’s list. He’s eagerly ramping up the talk of violence if he’s ‘cheated’ yet again. 

So what if he does lose? What part of his 30% base will rise up? 

IMHO - I think there will be pockets of guys in camo carrying a lot of weapons surrounding the court house/town hall in small towns in very red areas, maybe manning some road blocks, putting up some threatening signs, talking belligerently to reporters. I also think the urban areas and blue states will ignore them and wait for them to get tired of playing militia and going home. Maybe some blood shed if the militias attempt to take over a state government. 

Am I being hopelessly optimistic again? 

[Tennesseer]

I have no problem with federal troops taking out armed trump supporters. 

[billisonboard]

Wanted to start here:

He lost by a pretty fair number last time,

Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump was, oddly, both robust and slim.

Robust because Biden defeated Trump by more than 7 million votes, about 4.5% of the record-setting 158 million cast — no landslide, but hardly a squeaker.

Slim because of the quirks of the electoral college. There, Biden won by just a little more than 43,000 votes — the combined margins in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, his three closest states. Flip just those three to red, and the electoral college would have landed in a 269-269 tie, sending the contest to the House of Representatives, a likely Trump victory and a true constitutional crisis. link

I think the record turnout is important. Trump doesn't need more votes if the turnout for Biden is even marginally less.


Re Civil War:I think your thoughts are spot on. I would add the real possibility of individuals or very small groups attempting to assassinate Biden. They will have to be shot so there will be that blood shed.

[billisonboard]

Jul 29, 2023 11:29:53 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I have no problem with federal troops taking out armed trump supporters. 

I do have a problem with a situation in which Americans in uniform are forced to shoot and kill fellow Americans. I have to believe that PTSD for our troops would be significantly greater than other conflicts. I would hope that a strategy to minimize shooting would be developed.

[Tiny]

What would a civil war look like?

[dondubble]

As some MAGAts are crazy fools I expect a modicum of blood in the streets.

[billisonboard]

Jul 29, 2023 12:25:59 GMT -5 Tiny said:

What would a civil war look like?

If, big IF, it were to get started: Texas votes to leave the Union, another couple states join them, other states have their Capitol buildings stormed and forced to vote to do so also. Governors call up state national guards who do some invasion defense drills. There would a convention to draw a new constitution which will look more like the Articles of Confederation than our US Constitution. The Federal government would put economic pressures on the withdrawn states. They would start to argue with their fellow states and one by one return.

[Tennesseer]

Jul 29, 2023 12:06:03 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 29, 2023 11:29:53 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I have no problem with federal troops taking out armed trump supporters. 

I do have a problem with a situation in which Americans in uniform are forced to shoot and kill fellow Americans. I have to believe that PTSD for our troops would be significantly greater than other conflicts. I would hope that a strategy to minimize shooting would be developed.

You didn't disappoint me, Bill. I fully expected you to reply to my post as I posted it.

I stand by my position. I have had more than enough of trump and his radical followers.

[billisonboard]

Jul 29, 2023 14:24:17 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Jul 29, 2023 12:06:03 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I do have a problem with a situation in which Americans in uniform are forced to shoot and kill fellow Americans. I have to believe that PTSD for our troops would be significantly greater than other conflicts. I would hope that a strategy to minimize shooting would be developed.

You didn't disappoint me, Bill. I fully expected you to reply to my post as I posted it.

I stand by my position. I have had more than enough of trump and his radical followers.

I do tend to post on this board frequently. I start threads. I post on topics others start. And I respond to what others post on topics, sometimes agreeing in whole or part and other times offering a different perspective. I do appreciate that you and others are also active participants here. I would get bored if there was no interactive posting. I am especially appreciative when others challenge my position. This place can be a real echo chamber at times.

[tallguy]

Jul 29, 2023 14:51:10 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 29, 2023 14:24:17 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

You didn't disappoint me, Bill. I fully expected you to reply to my post as I posted it.

I stand by my position. I have had more than enough of trump and his radical followers.

I do tend to post on this board frequently. I start threads. I post on topics others start. And I respond to what others post on topics, sometimes agreeing in whole or part and other times offering a different perspective. I do appreciate that you and others are also active participants here. I would get bored if there was no interactive posting. I am especially appreciative when others challenge my position. This place can be a real echo chamber at times.

I'm just glad you are not advocating an appeasement strategy on this thread.  Nevilleisonboard doesn't have quite the same ring to it.   

[djAdvocate]

Jul 29, 2023 12:25:59 GMT -5 Tiny said:

What would a civil war look like?

a bunch of white men with walkers and pea shooters up against Murray-Abrahams tanks.

not much of a battle, imo.

[haapai]

Jul 29, 2023 11:23:52 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I’ve seen a lot of articles like this:  

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4119386-more-say-violence-could-be-necessary-to-restore-trump-to-white-house-survey/

Some of the far right MAGAs saying if Trump loses in 2024, it will force them to take up arms against the radical left. 

Personally I don’t see how Trump can win, unless Biden really implodes in a very dramatic way. We already know the GOP is losing moderate women due to the abortion issue. He won’t gain any additional independent voters over what he had last time, and will probably lose more due to all his various legal problems. He lost by a pretty fair number last time, and this time it’s bound to be the same or worse. 

Trump is certainly highly motivated to win, if for no other reason than being able to get the DOJ to drop all the legal cases against him, and to smite his enormous enemy’s list. He’s eagerly ramping up the talk of violence if he’s ‘cheated’ yet again. 

So what if he does lose? What part of his 30% base will rise up? 

IMHO - I think there will be pockets of guys in camo carrying a lot of weapons surrounding the court house/town hall in small towns in very red areas, maybe manning some road blocks, putting up some threatening signs, talking belligerently to reporters. I also think the urban areas and blue states will ignore them and wait for them to get tired of playing militia and going home. Maybe some blood shed if the militias attempt to take over a state government. 

Am I being hopelessly optimistic again? 

I think that you are being hopelessly optimistic.  The scenarios that you have mentioned are all about what might happen if Trump does not win in 2024.  You seem to be unable to think about what might/probably will happen if he does win in 2024.

Don't beat yourself up over this, I can't get myself to even entertain these thoughts either.  I do not want to go there either.  I just do not want to imagine what might happen if he won, and he won in 2016, and I did not see that coming.  You might be just as blind as I was in 2016. 

[billisonboard]

Found this great article: Guerrilla Warfare

Throughout the American Civil War, as vast armies in blue and gray clashed on conventional battlefields, a drastically different kind of conflict was raging as well: a bloody guerrilla war that erupted in the South in response to Federal invasion.  Characterized by ambushes, surprise raids, and irregular styles of combat, this guerrilla war became savage, chaotic, and often disorganized.

I think if the federal government were to introduce their troops, there would be a lot of this and few, if any, pitched battles.

[ken a.k.a OMK]

I disagree billisonboard. This is a different time. trumps right wing militia is small, disorganized and under equipped for a major civil war. Their targets would most likely be government facilities that would be heavily fortified. Yes there would be many innocent civilian causalities before the trumpers turn and ran.

[billisonboard]

Jul 29, 2023 16:33:40 GMT -5 ken a.k.a OMK said:

I disagree billisonboard. This is a different time. trumps right wing militia is small, disorganized and under equipped for a major civil war. Their targets would most likely be government facilities that would be heavily fortified. Yes there would be many innocent civilian causalities before the trumpers turn and ran.

I agree that a major civil war is absurd between government forces and Trump minions. That would just be a bloodier version of the January 6th insurrection. However in 2020 Trump drew state governments into pushing his stolen election bullshit in courts. There is the possibility that in 2024 it won't stop at lawsuits. I see that as where an actual civil war could be started with states either officially seceding or taking actions to nullify a federal government not run by Trump. That is the scenario in which I see the use of guerrilla tactics against occupying forces with a long term strategy of wearing down resolve.

[dondubble]

Jul 29, 2023 17:27:36 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 29, 2023 16:33:40 GMT -5 ken a.k.a OMK said:

I disagree billisonboard. This is a different time. trumps right wing militia is small, disorganized and under equipped for a major civil war. Their targets would most likely be government facilities that would be heavily fortified. Yes there would be many innocent civilian causalities before the trumpers turn and ran.

I agree that a major civil war is absurd between government forces and Trump minions. That would just be a bloodier version of the January 6th insurrection. However in 2020 Trump drew state governments into pushing his stolen election bullshit in courts. There is the possibility that in 2024 it won't stop at lawsuits. I see that as where an actual civil war could be started with states either officially seceding or taking actions to nullify a federal government not run by Trump. That is the scenario in which I see the use of guerrilla tactics against occupying forces with a long term strategy of wearing down resolve.

Secede? All government funds stop flowing immediately. No checks, no nuthin’.

[billisonboard]

Jul 29, 2023 17:34:26 GMT -5 dondubble said:

Jul 29, 2023 17:27:36 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I agree that a major civil war is absurd between government forces and Trump minions. That would just be a bloodier version of the January 6th insurrection. However in 2020 Trump drew state governments into pushing his stolen election bullshit in courts. There is the possibility that in 2024 it won't stop at lawsuits. I see that as where an actual civil war could be started with states either officially seceding or taking actions to nullify a federal government not run by Trump. That is the scenario in which I see the use of guerrilla tactics against occupying forces with a long term strategy of wearing down resolve.

Secede? All government funds stop flowing immediately. No checks, no nuthin’.

but the really fun made for television piece would be watching Federal Marshalls tossing their former members of Congress along with all their personal belongings onto the ground in front of the Capitol.

[Tennesseer]

I would not be sad to see Mississippi secede from the Union.  Mississippi has general elections this Fall including for governor. 

I went to YouTube looking for some of the TV ads which are aired on Memphis TV stations.  Memphis TV stations also cover northern Mississippi.  Some of the claims of the Republican candidates are outlandish including things that they have supposedly done or will do if elected.

One Republican candidate's ad as he speaks to the people of Mississippi claims he stopped their personal information from being stored in President Biden's garage.  Huh? Nothing about trump hiding classified documents at MaL.

Mississippians are eating this garbage up.  And the speaking citizens in some of these ads trashing Democratic party candidates look like they are the child of their older brother and  sister.

[Pink Cashmere]

Jul 29, 2023 15:30:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 29, 2023 12:25:59 GMT -5 Tiny said:

What would a civil war look like?

a bunch of white men with walkers and pea shooters up against Murray-Abrahams tanks.

not much of a battle, imo.

I don’t believe it’s just a bunch of old white men though. I believe there are a lot of younger and young white men and women we should be concerned about too. 

It wasn’t a bunch of white men on walkers on January 6th. 

I joke sometimes on these boards about my plans and strategies if the zombies come for us. When I joke about it though, I’m not really thinking about zombies. Imma just leave that at that, and probably not joke about the zombies coming for me and mine anymore. 

I am seriously concerned about the day coming that I will need to protect me and mine. It’s part of the reason I’ve been so interested in edibles and trying to learn to grow my own food. And although I do just like it period, that’s one of the things I like about my Jeep Wrangler. It’s tiny, and I can’t fit all my loved ones in it, and I can’t go anywhere fast driving it lol, but I can cover different kinds of terrain in it than I can in my car. I wasn’t thinking about any of that when we bought it though. I just wanted it because it was a good deal. The Tahoe isn’t as agile, but it can come in handy too. I’m very much a city girl, but I feel like I need to be able to get somewhere safer and know how to survive if I have to leave the city because some crazy shit happens. Those are the most benign things I’m willing to admit these days. 

I feel like I sound kind of like a crazy person even admitting that I think about things like that, that kind of stuff has never even been on my radar until the last few years. I mean I do live in the USA, the “greatest nation on earth” and I’m a citizen, born and bred….. so wtf and wth is happening in these “modern” times?! But I’m also the kind of person that hopes for the best and tries to prepare for the worst, and I am very, very concerned about a lot of things in this country now, to the point that I feel like “the worst” in my lifetime might be really, really bad.

[Tennesseer]

We must keep in mind that on January 6, 2021 and for 187 minutes, trump sat and watched the attack on the U.S. Capital and said nothing to stop it.   Only then did he:

"Trump issued a video message on social media that Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube later took down. In it, he repeated his claims of electoral fraud, praised his supporters and told them to "go home".[60][393] At 6:25 p.m., Trump tweeted: "These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long" and then issued a call: "Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!"."

January 6 United States Capitol attack

I would expect trump to be silent for days if armed fighting and the sabotage of the U.S. power  and water grids were begun by his supporters.

[Pink Cashmere]

Jul 29, 2023 18:14:58 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

We must keep in mind that on January 6, 2021 and for 187 minutes, trump sat and watched the attack on the U.S. Capital and said nothing to stop it.   Only then did he:

"Trump issued a video message on social media that Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube later took down. In it, he repeated his claims of electoral fraud, praised his supporters and told them to "go home".[60][393] At 6:25 p.m., Trump tweeted: "These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long" and then issued a call: "Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!"."

January 6 United States Capitol attack

I would expect trump to be silent for days if armed fighting and the sabotage of the U.S. power  and water grids were begun by his supporters.

Trump most certainly brought a lot of things to light about the ugliness and hatred that was still quietly rampant in our country. But I believe our problems are much bigger than him. The fact that he even got elected in the first place, and has not faded into oblivion by now, aside from all the legal cases against him that I feel like the whole world SHOULD know about, says more about Americans and the things that matter the most to us, despite what we say, than it says about him.

In the United States of America I use to believe in, very few people would’ve even taken him seriously when he was running for President, and he most definitely wouldn’t have been given the honor of actually being the POTUS. The fact that that even happened, was the beginning of a whole lot of things changing for me and my mindset regarding things I’ve always tried to believe were true about this country and my fellow citizens. But that’s just me and my thoughts. 

[thyme4change]

I wonder if any state could actually secede. Even though Texas is ‘red’ Dallas, Houston and Austin are pretty blue and full of national and international corporations. I don’t think they would bless secession. They have 10% of the Fortune 500’s headquarters. Many of those depend on Federal or non-Texas state contracts. There is a lot of money that would have to make hefty changes ridiculously fast. I think they would rather use their power to squash anything that expensive.

Will a bunch of Bundy-esk jackasses make a giant mess - sure! But I don’t think any elected officials will participate - except maybe the craziest ones, which would be good because we can jail them.

[Pink Cashmere]

Jul 29, 2023 19:54:55 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I wonder if any state could actually secede. Even though Texas is ‘red’ Dallas, Houston and Austin are pretty blue and full of national and international corporations. I don’t think they would bless secession. They have 10% of the Fortune 500’s headquarters. Many of those depend on Federal or non-Texas state contracts. There is a lot of money that would have to make hefty changes ridiculously fast. I think they would rather use their power to squash anything that expensive.

Will a bunch of Bundy-esk jackasses make a giant mess - sure! But I don’t think any elected officials will participate - except maybe the craziest ones, which would be good because we can jail them.

Us “blue” folks are also to blame, because we are apathetic. We tend to act like somebody else will deal with the crazies and solve the problems, while we wring our hands and bitch and moan, and DO nothing. Not even vote. Of course, that’s just my opinion too.

[dondubble]

Jul 29, 2023 20:01:59 GMT -5 Pink Cashmere said:

Jul 29, 2023 19:54:55 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I wonder if any state could actually secede. Even though Texas is ‘red’ Dallas, Houston and Austin are pretty blue and full of national and international corporations. I don’t think they would bless secession. They have 10% of the Fortune 500’s headquarters. Many of those depend on Federal or non-Texas state contracts. There is a lot of money that would have to make hefty changes ridiculously fast. I think they would rather use their power to squash anything that expensive.

Will a bunch of Bundy-esk jackasses make a giant mess - sure! But I don’t think any elected officials will participate - except maybe the craziest ones, which would be good because we can jail them.

Us “blue” folks are also to blame, because we are apathetic. We tend to act like somebody else will deal with the crazies and solve the problems, while we wring our hands and bitch and moan, and DO nothing. Not even vote. Of course, that’s just my opinion too.

A valid opinion.

[bean29]

I worry what happens to Social Security. Trump might decide only Registered Republicans Deserve SS, or only Red Voting Counties? Who knows what happens if Maga Conspiracy Types are in power.

[happyhoix]

Jul 30, 2023 2:40:35 GMT -5 bean29 said:

I worry what happens to Social Security. Trump might decide only Registered Republicans Deserve SS, or only Red Voting Counties? Who knows what happens if Maga Conspiracy Types are in power.

A while back I was reading about a proposed GOP revision to SS where they limited it to people over a certain age or children under a certain age. 

So - if you’re mentally impaired, or a Down’s person, or have  a physical issue that keeps you from being able to work, you better figure out some kind of job you can do. 

I’m all for empowering people to help them get into the workforce, but we already have a lot of homeless people around here, most of them with drug or mental health issues,  with almost no community resources to help them since the mental health facilities shut down, so I don’t think making sure none of them can get SS would help them. 

[djAdvocate]

Jul 29, 2023 18:01:08 GMT -5 Pink Cashmere said:

Jul 29, 2023 15:30:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

a bunch of white men with walkers and pea shooters up against Murray-Abrahams tanks.

not much of a battle, imo.

I don’t believe it’s just a bunch of old white men though. I believe there are a lot of younger and young white men and women we should be concerned about too. 

It wasn’t a bunch of white men on walkers on January 6th. .

Stewart Rhodes is 57.  i would say he is about average.  and sure, there are 27 year olds out there, too.  but there were 77 year olds, too.

i am not backing down on this one.  i think their supporters are LARGELY boomers.  i think that they are under-trained, poorly organized (particularly now that the more organized elements in their midst are charged or in prison) and poorly armed.  they don't stand a chance against men half their age with superior training, organization and weaponry.  in other words, i was being hyperbolic, but the hyperbole changes the dynamic only by a small degree.

MAGA has this vision of the US that they are somehow in charge, or "can be".
they are not.  nor, imo, will they be.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 29, 2023 19:16:14 GMT -5 Pink Cashmere said:

Jul 29, 2023 18:14:58 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

In the United States of America I use to believe in, very few people would’ve even taken him seriously when he was running for President, and he most definitely wouldn’t have been given the honor of actually being the POTUS. The fact that that even happened, was the beginning of a whole lot of things changing for me and my mindset regarding things I’ve always tried to believe were true about this country and my fellow citizens. But that’s just me and my thoughts. 

in the United States you once knew, we had two functioning parties that believed in elections and the will of the people, and stood for and by them, more or less.

now, you have an anti-government insurgency and a fairly milquetoast opposition.  it is not a very good situation, so i appreciate your apprehensions.

[billisonboard]

White, employed and mainstream: What we know about the Jan. 6 rioters one year later

Typically, right-wing extremists are young — normally under the age of 34. On Jan. 6, rioters were mostly in their 40s and 50s.

[Tiny]

Jul 29, 2023 12:57:51 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 29, 2023 12:25:59 GMT -5 Tiny said:

What would a civil war look like?

If, big IF, it were to get started: Texas votes to leave the Union, another couple states join them, other states have their Capitol buildings stormed and forced to vote to do so also. Governors call up state national guards who do some invasion defense drills. There would a convention to draw a new constitution which will look more like the Articles of Confederation than our US Constitution. The Federal government would put economic pressures on the withdrawn states. They would start to argue with their fellow states and one by one return.

I think something at that level would require some sort of foreign aid and help.   If the STates that leave aren't getting Federal money or are no longer able to trade with foreign countries under current contracts/agreements. The States that leave are going to need a lot of money to keep the lights one/food on the table and they are going to need foreign help (maybe Russia or China or India would like to buy in to setting up a new country/government?)  


FWIW:   If it comes to violence -  and without an actual organized army (and supply chain to maintain that army) I suspect there might be more damage done to the States that leave as they try to "purge" or "punish" any area that isn't loyal - which might mean hampering Large Cities in their states by cutting power or water which might have really unpleasant unforseen consequences for those wishing to leave the Union - especially  if large hospitals stop working or if supply chain warehouses/roads/trains/airports stop working.   


I think any sort of violence if trump loses the next election will be of the guerilla warfare variety and it will effect those who voted for trump and those who didn't.