Oregon might change its voting procedures

[Knee Deep in Water Chloe]

The Oregon state legislative session ended this last weekend. The following is from an email sent out by the Oregon Secretary of State: 

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Ranked Choice Voting

Legislators passed a legislative referral this year that could change the way Oregonians cast their ballots. The referral will ask voters to consider Ranked Choice Voting, a system in which voters rank candidates in order of preference instead of casting a single vote for their preferred candidate. The question will be on the November 2024 ballot. If approved by voters, the new voting system will start in 2028.

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 (All of our children are over the age of 18, and we ensured they all voted their first opportunity and in their first opportunity for a presidential election.)

Two of our children are excited about this possibility. DH is not because he thinks it will delay results by over a week. We currently get results almost always around 8:30 Tuesday evening. 

[djAdvocate]

love RCV.  kept Palin out of office.  twice.

[billisonboard]

For consideration, DH would be correct if it had been used in the 2022 general election governor's race. A couple of the congressional races were close to 50% but might have gone slightly different and thus been delayed. 2022 Republican primaries for governor and Senate would have been very interesting. 

[billisonboard]

Jun 27, 2023 19:20:36 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

love RCV.  kept Palin out of office.  twice.

It actually didn't in either the special nor the general congressional races in 2022. In neither race did she have a plurality of the vote in the first round of voting.

[ripvanwinkle]

I think it's a dumb idea. Let's say we have 4 candidates. 1 from the Rep party 1 from the Dem party, and 2 from the fringe parties. The fringe party is the Tinker Bell party which is for defunding and disbanding the police and encouraging gender mutilation thru pills and surgery and the other one is the Stalin party that wants to disband the legislature, put cameras every 200 ft to monitor people, use the military as the police force and let just appointed judges (no jury) do trials.

Now if RCV comes into effect the fringe parties could gain power over responsible candidates. Who knows where it would go. I do not want to find out.

[dondubble]

Jun 28, 2023 0:05:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think it's a dumb idea. Let's say we have 4 candidates. 1 from the Rep party 1 from the Dem party, and 2 from the fringe parties. The fringe party is the Tinker Bell party which is for defunding and disbanding the police and encouraging gender mutilation thru pills and surgery and the other one is the Stalin party that wants to disband the legislature, put cameras every 200 ft to monitor people, use the military as the police force and let just appointed judges (no jury) do trials.

Now if RCV comes into effect the fringe parties could gain power over responsible candidates. Who knows where it would go. I do not want to find out.

You Repo/cons are a fringe party led by an Orange Stalinist. I do not want to know how far it might go.

[Opti]

Jun 28, 2023 0:05:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think it's a dumb idea. Let's say we have 4 candidates. 1 from the Rep party 1 from the Dem party, and 2 from the fringe parties. The fringe party is the Tinker Bell party which is for defunding and disbanding the police and encouraging gender mutilation thru pills and surgery and the other one is the Stalin party that wants to disband the legislature, put cameras every 200 ft to monitor people, use the military as the police force and let just appointed judges (no jury) do trials.

Now if RCV comes into effect the fringe parties could gain power over responsible candidates. Who knows where it would go. I do not want to find out.

Gender is a construct, its impossible to mutilate it through physical means. What kind of media are you soaking up? If a baby has been born intersex, generally surgery is used to mold the baby more to the male or female ideal. Surgery and hormone therapy existed long before the RW decided to get all bent about it.



Lastly how would fringe parties now get elected if the majority puts them into 3rd and 4th position in RCV? Can you explain that?

[billisonboard]

Jun 28, 2023 0:05:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think it's a dumb idea. Let's say we have 4 candidates. 1 from the Rep party 1 from the Dem party, and 2 from the fringe parties. The fringe party is the Tinker Bell party which is for defunding and disbanding the police and encouraging gender mutilation thru pills and surgery and the other one is the Stalin party that wants to disband the legislature, put cameras every 200 ft to monitor people, use the military as the police force and let just appointed judges (no jury) do trials.

Now if RCV comes into effect the fringe parties could gain power over responsible candidates. Who knows where it would go. I do not want to find out.

Actually the opposite would be more likely. Under the current system, a 4 candidate race could be 26%, 25.1%, 24.9%, 24% allowing the person with 26% to take office. Assigning numbers to each party say TB gets the 26, R 25.1, D 24.9, St 24 - TB in office. With RCV the process would continue. The first choice St vote would be tossed and go to their second choice. Unless they go 100% TB, in a third count the D votes get tossed and their second choice (plus third choice of any St who voted D as second choice) are counted. While it is possible that voters who rejected the extreme positions taken by TB in the first place would select them in the second or third place, it is much more likely they would pick a moderate choice.

[grumpyhermit]

I wish more states would do this. Maine instituted the system after LePage won with under 50% in two consecutive gubernatorial races. The Dems decided to eat their own and one ran as an Independent, splitting the vote. Though he did win by a wider margin the second time. Regardless it would be interesting to see how/if RCV would have altered the outcomes in those races.

[thyme4change]

The place it really helps is primaries. I remember hearing once that Trump was virtually no one’s second choice and he wouldn’t have won any state primaries if they had all used ranked voting.

However, it would still matter in the general vote. If I recall correctly, Bill Clinton would not have been president if we had rank choice in the general.

Plus, I think it would highlight the way average Americans really feel about the two parties. If we could show displeasure with the candidates without risking the election, maybe both parties would examine themselves.

I am worried about Synema’s senate seat now that she is independent. There is a group advocating for her to run as a democrat, but many D’s here are unlikely to support her. If she runs as an independent she could divert enough votes to solidify that position to the GOP. Maybe the R candidate would be “moderate” - but could easily be a nut case like Paul Gosar. Rank choice in the general would be helpful.

[billisonboard]

Jun 28, 2023 10:16:50 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

The place it really helps is primaries. I remember hearing once that Trump was virtually no one’s second choice and he wouldn’t have won any state primaries if they had all used ranked voting.

However, it would still matter in the general vote. If I recall correctly, Bill Clinton would not have been president if we had rank choice in the general.

Plus, I think it would highlight the way average Americans really feel about the two parties. If we could show displeasure with the candidates without risking the election, maybe both parties would examine themselves.

I am worried about Synema’s senate seat now that she is independent. There is a group advocating for her to run as a democrat, but many D’s here are unlikely to support her. If she runs as an independent she could divert enough votes to solidify that position to the GOP. Maybe the R candidate would be “moderate” - but could easily be a nut case like Paul Gosar. Rank choice in the general would be helpful.

re bolded: It is impossible to say one way or the other on that. The analysis would require looking at each state (except Arkansas and District of Columbia where Clinton got over 50%) and making assumptions how the Perot voters would have placed second choice votes. That would give you an idea of which states would have switched from their plurality choice, Clinton or Bush, to the other candidate in a majority vote. For Clinton to lose, it would require that the split would go for Bush, in some states significantly so, in a large number of states, not taking into account states that could have switched from Bush to Clinton. It would be a fun game to play for political wonks but nothing could be proven conclusively.

[billisonboard]

WONK WARNING

Prepare to be impressed or put to sleep

1992 Presidential Election

Rank Choice Voting

Using a five percent cutoff margin between the results for Clinton and Bush in "first round" votes as a reasonable potential skew for Perot voters in their "second round votes". I found 11 states with a plurality for Clinton giving him 107 electoral votes. I found six such states which went for Bush giving him 95 electoral votes. The original EC vote was 370 Clinton and 168 Bush. It would have taken Bush making close to a clean sweep of those Clinton states while losing none of his close wins for him to have won reelection. A ten percent margin would have included 8 more Clinton states and 75 EC vote. For Bush also 8 states and 63 votes.

I going to say it would have been very difficult for Bush to have pulled it off with RCV.

[ripvanwinkle]

Jun 28, 2023 5:44:45 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jun 28, 2023 0:05:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think it's a dumb idea. Let's say we have 4 candidates. 1 from the Rep party 1 from the Dem party, and 2 from the fringe parties. The fringe party is the Tinker Bell party which is for defunding and disbanding the police and encouraging gender mutilation thru pills and surgery and the other one is the Stalin party that wants to disband the legislature, put cameras every 200 ft to monitor people, use the military as the police force and let just appointed judges (no jury) do trials.

Now if RCV comes into effect the fringe parties could gain power over responsible candidates. Who knows where it would go. I do not want to find out.

Gender is a construct, its impossible to mutilate it through physical means. What kind of media are you soaking up? If a baby has been born intersex, generally surgery is used to mold the baby more to the male or female ideal. Surgery and hormone therapy existed long before the RW decided to get all bent about it.



Lastly how would fringe parties now get elected if the majority puts them into 3rd and 4th position in RCV? Can you explain that?

According to this I found you are wrong. Take your pick of articles. Lots of them -  "Wikipedia - Gender-affirming surgery is a surgical procedure, or series of procedures, that alters a transgender or transsexual person's physical appearance and sexual characteristics to resemble those associated with their identified gender, and alleviate gender dysphoria".

[teen persuasion]

Jun 28, 2023 21:08:12 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

Jun 28, 2023 5:44:45 GMT -5 Opti said:

Gender is a construct, its impossible to mutilate it through physical means. What kind of media are you soaking up? If a baby has been born intersex, generally surgery is used to mold the baby more to the male or female ideal. Surgery and hormone therapy existed long before the RW decided to get all bent about it.



Lastly how would fringe parties now get elected if the majority puts them into 3rd and 4th position in RCV? Can you explain that?

According to this I found you are wrong. Take your pick of articles. Lots of them -  "Wikipedia - Gender-affirming surgery is a surgical procedure, or series of procedures, that alters a transgender or transsexual person's physical appearance and sexual characteristics to resemble those associated with their identified gender, and alleviate gender dysphoria".

You are making Opti's point: surgeries alter the person's APPEARANCE, to resemble their identified GENDER. 

IOW, the changes are made to their physical body, to match the gender they identify with. Here, their "gender" is just as nebulous a construct as "geek" or "nerd" - it's not a physical thing that can be touched or mutilated. It's just an idea.

Like blue - can you touch the color blue? You know what blue is, but there are lots of different shades of blue.