Raising debt ceiling endlessly

[ripvanwinkle]

I think I need a math wizard here. If congress constantly raises the debt ceiling every time, at what point does this become unsustainable?? What happens to the economy and the US dollar?

Does the dollar fall below $1.00 and other countries distrust the dollar? Stock market crashes? Run on banks? Would other countries suffer also since they base their currency on the strength of our dollar rates?

Just wondering

[Opti]

I think we shouldn't let housing prices keep appreciating year after year. It doesn't sound sustainable. It gets further and further from the value of a single dollar, much like cars.

When will it stop? What should we do?

Just wondering - Its always about the scope. If our GDP was dropping year after year and our debt ceiling kept increasing we probably don't need to do math to determine that is not a good thing. However, since the federal budget and its primary income from taxes generally increases year after year, one needs to do math to determine whether it is a good thing, indifferent or needs to be looked at.

[pulmonarymd]

You know how to make the debt stop accumulating? Pass a budget without deficit spending. Haven’t seen 1 in about a quarter century. Not since the bush tax cuts. The deficit doesn’t have to increase. We just are unwilling to do what it takes to prevent it from doing so

[Opti]

May 10, 2023 5:25:59 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

You know how to make the debt stop accumulating? Pass a budget without deficit spending. Haven’t seen 1 in about a quarter century. Not since the bush tax cuts. The deficit doesn’t have to increase. We just are unwilling to do what it takes to prevent it from doing so

Politically there would need to be agreed on compromise, which with Mitch and similar in charge won't happen.

[pulmonarymd]

I am under no illusions that we will pass a balanced budget. It requires an increase in revenue and a decrease in spending, including attacking some sacred cows in the budget. Since neither side is willing to provide ammunition for the others attack ads, here we are. But to believe that it has to be this way is dumb. This is again a direct response to the fact that we, the American people, act like entitled children, and vote that way. If we want something different we need to vote that way.

[Opti]

May 10, 2023 7:54:42 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

I am under no illusions that we will pass a balanced budget. It requires an increase in revenue and a decrease in spending, including attacking some sacred cows in the budget. Since neither side is willing to provide ammunition for the others attack ads, here we are. But to believe that it has to be this way is dumb. This is again a direct response to the fact that we, the American people, act like entitled children, and vote that way. If we want something different we need to vote that way.

Its more than just voting though. You and I can vote perfectly from now until the end of time, but it won't affect whether others vote for mitch, MGT, Trump or whomever.

We have no control over how others vote. Right now many conservative minds are trapped in a pool of fear and are as easily led by some GOPers as Trump was led by dictators including Ergodan (sp) in Turkey. 

[pulmonarymd]

By we I mean the collective we. We have too many people who are uninformed and emotional voters. Until we, as a country, grow up and get our heads out of the sand, this is where we are. Over 30% of voters do not vote in presidential elections. Things might be different if they voted. But we are stuck in this stalemate right now. Until we are fed up with the status quo enough to demand change, nothing will change.

[Opti]

May 10, 2023 8:18:51 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

By we I mean the collective we. We have too many people who are uninformed and emotional voters. Until we, as a country, grow up and get our heads out of the sand, this is where we are. Over 30% of voters do not vote in presidential elections. Things might be different if they voted. But we are stuck in this stalemate right now. Until we are fed up with the status quo enough to demand change, nothing will change.

I understand PMD, but some of them are incapable and as we see time to time here, many don't recognize there is even an issue.
I do my best to reevaluate and understand, but that's a personal choice I make over and over. Many stick in their preferred political foxholes and never venture out to learn what really is the state of things now.

Using Trump and anti-abortion style marketing though might work as brought up by Tiny in another thread.

[laterbloomer]

May 10, 2023 7:09:26 GMT -5 Opti said:

May 10, 2023 5:25:59 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

You know how to make the debt stop accumulating? Pass a budget without deficit spending. Haven’t seen 1 in about a quarter century. Not since the bush tax cuts. The deficit doesn’t have to increase. We just are unwilling to do what it takes to prevent it from doing so

Politically there would need to be agreed on compromise, which with Mitch and similar in charge won't happen.

It's about more than compromise. It's agreeing who get's the extra money, rich people or poor people. In Canada if we cut the corporate welfare our budget would be balanced. But somehow they've sold, or say with a straight face, that corporate welfare is justified to create jobs. While simultaneously insisting on cutting government jobs that directly serve the people with no skimming for the rich. So we have a lot of people spending a lot of time insisting that the $600/mth welfare cheque is what's breaking us.

[djAdvocate]

May 10, 2023 0:31:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think I need a math wizard here. If congress constantly raises the debt ceiling every time, at what point does this become unsustainable?? 

too many questions.  i will address one at a time.

the debt ceiling kept going up from 1950-1980, but fell in REAL TERMS.  in other words, the US economy grew faster than the debt.  since both are theoretically immortal, that is sustainable.  the limit as time goes to infinity is zero.  the debt as a percentage of GDP would eventually be negligible, and we could pay it off in inflated dollars.

SINCE 1980, the debt has grown FASTER than the economy.  that is not sustainable.

so, if we can get back to a GROWTH RATE of the debt that is beneath that of our economic growth, we are golden.  until then, it is CURRENTLY unsustainable, by definition.  but that does NOT mean that we need to balance the budget.  it means we need to curb the growth of spending to less than that of GDP.

of course, this is predicated on not fulfilling Nordquist's anarchic view of government.  we should ALWAYS discuss revenues when talking about debt.  i would advocate that we target 18% of GDP for federal revenue.  that seems to be a good working number.

[djAdvocate]

May 10, 2023 0:31:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

What happens to the economy and the US dollar?

Does the dollar fall below $1.00 and other countries distrust the dollar? 

the second half of your question is nonsensical.  the dollar fell 13% versus the peso this year.  does that mean that Mexico distrusts the dollar?  no.  historically, the British Pound has been higher than the US dollar.   what does that mean?  i don't know.  nothing, really.

the first half of your question is a GREAT one.  the first thing we should STOP doing is pretending we are in a vacuum.  there are over 190 other currencies out there.  about half rise against the dollar every year.  the other half fall.  we should ALWAYS judge our performance on that of our peers.  IE: how is the US dollar holding up against the EURO (our primary competitor, i would argue):


www.google.com/search?q=euro+versus+usd&rlz=1C1VSIB_enUS864US864&oq=euro+versus+USD&aqs=chrome.0.0i512l3j0i22i30l6j0i10i22i30.3041j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

the dollar is basically flat against the Euro for the last THIRTY FIVE YEARS, with some notable dips.  there was a steady downtrend in the dollar under Clinton.  there was a steady uptrend under Bush.  the dollar lost about 1/3 of it's value between 2014 and 2015, and has been largely flat since then.

[djAdvocate]

May 10, 2023 0:31:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

Stock market crashes? Run on banks? Would other countries suffer also since they base their currency on the strength of our dollar rates?

Just wondering

using Turkiye as an example, no.  there is actually a RUN on the stock markets in countries with collapsing currencies.  they make excellent investments.  that is because people IN THOSE COUNTRIES use them to hedge against currency losses.

there would also be no run on banks.  why would there be?  your dollars would be worth less and less, so at some point your million dollars in the bank wouldn't buy a plantain.

the answer to the third question is: it depends.  if you export a lot to the US, then the answer is YES.  if you import a lot FROM the US, the answer is NO.  so, China would be screwed by the collapse of the dollar, as an example.  it would flip the balance of trade upside down.  ditto for Mexico and Canada.  practically everywhere else?  negligible to positive.

[djAdvocate]

PS- i forgot to mention something.  regarding post #10.

inflation in the EuroZone is 6.9% right now.  that is 2% above US inflation.
in a nation of economically literate citizens, we would be STOKED at how
well we are doing, here.  instead, i routinely hear people on the right lamenting
how awful things are, and on the left people are largely moot.  it is embarrassing
to witness.  

inflation in England is 10%
inflation in Turkiye is 50%

in THOSE countries it makes sense that the leadership is in desperate trouble.
Biden should not be in ANY trouble here.  but there is such overwhelming
ignorance and outright lies about how we are doing, that he is.

[tbop77]

May 10, 2023 0:31:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think I need a math wizard here. If congress constantly raises the debt ceiling every time, at what point does this become unsustainable?? What happens to the economy and the US dollar?

Does the dollar fall below $1.00 and other countries distrust the dollar? Stock market crashes? Run on banks? Would other countries suffer also since they base their currency on the strength of our dollar rates?

Just wondering

Where have you been for the last 40 years?  Do you really think either party cares?  Even though the US has been irresponsible, do you not think the GOP is acting childish with the threat the US is not going to honor what we owe? 

Just wondering 

[djAdvocate]

May 12, 2023 7:35:54 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

May 10, 2023 0:31:09 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think I need a math wizard here. If congress constantly raises the debt ceiling every time, at what point does this become unsustainable?? What happens to the economy and the US dollar?

Does the dollar fall below $1.00 and other countries distrust the dollar? Stock market crashes? Run on banks? Would other countries suffer also since they base their currency on the strength of our dollar rates?

Just wondering

Where have you been for the last 40 years?  Do you really think either party cares?  Even though the US has been irresponsible, do you not think the GOP is acting childish with the threat the US is not going to honor what we owe? 

Just wondering 

it depends on what you think they care about. 

in the GOP case, they care about the debt ceiling only as a bludgeon to undo the legacy of FDR.  meanwhile, they have spent trillions on AUMF.  

both sides have pretended to care, when their sacred cows were not being gored.  if the GOP wants to cut spending, i would suggest we cut military spending 50%.  if they are game for that, then we can talk.  otherwise, it is just shit on a shoe.

[djAdvocate]

PS- not to toot my own horn here, but i am really good at math.  i got 780 on the math SAT, and routinely got A's in my higher math classes.  if i saw any future in a math degree, i probably would have got one.  i love math.  so that OP got my attention.  

[Opti]

May 12, 2023 12:58:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

PS- not to toot my own horn here, but i am really good at math.  i got 780 on the math SAT, and routinely got A's in my higher math classes.  if i saw any future in a math degree, i probably would have got one.  i love math.  so that OP got my attention.  

I did really well on my math SAT as well. Think my score was in that area too.

[ripvanwinkle]

May 12, 2023 12:58:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

PS- not to toot my own horn here, but i am really good at math.  i got 780 on the math SAT, and routinely got A's in my higher math classes.  if i saw any future in a math degree, i probably would have got one.  i love math.  so that OP got my attention.  

I think math is the only true science. You can prove math. All the other degrees that end in "ology"" or "studies" are just theoretical. Its what people just think about something and cannot prove definitively.

[djAdvocate]

May 13, 2023 20:44:24 GMT -5 Opti said:

May 12, 2023 12:58:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

PS- not to toot my own horn here, but i am really good at math.  i got 780 on the math SAT, and routinely got A's in my higher math classes.  if i saw any future in a math degree, i probably would have got one.  i love math.  so that OP got my attention.  

I did really well on my math SAT as well. Think my score was in that area too.

i made one error i believe.  a really simple addition error.
embarrassing.
or maybe that was the ACT.  can't remember, now.

[pulmonarymd]

May 13, 2023 23:09:14 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

May 12, 2023 12:58:22 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

PS- not to toot my own horn here, but i am really good at math.  i got 780 on the math SAT, and routinely got A's in my higher math classes.  if i saw any future in a math degree, i probably would have got one.  i love math.  so that OP got my attention.  

I think math is the only true science. You can prove math. All the other degrees that end in "ology"" or "studies" are just theoretical. Its what people just think about something and cannot prove definitively.

So many things are wrong with that post that it is impossible to refut it. Good work. Took lessons from trump I see.

Physiology, an ology in your phrasing, can prove things. For example, blood enters the left ventricle after being oxygenated in the lungs. We have observed it happen. If you don’t think that is proven, then nothing in life is proven

[Opti]

May 13, 2023 23:24:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 13, 2023 20:44:24 GMT -5 Opti said:

I did really well on my math SAT as well. Think my score was in that area too.

i made one error i believe.  a really simple addition error.
embarrassing.
or maybe that was the ACT.  can't remember, now.

Math can be like a programming language. I remember the day I was at a research lab and realized that my XH and his coworkers were using math to model new stuff. Sometimes I am slow, but it didn't occur to me that would be one of the uses of math in engineering even though I knew math was used to model known things like electrical components.

At the time though I did not see myself as someone who could have a PhD and be a researcher. Now, I still think I could do much good in the field of self-driving cars because as a car enthusiast I think of things people who just see cars as transport, will not.

[billisonboard]

May 14, 2023 7:42:44 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

May 13, 2023 23:09:14 GMT -5 ripvanwinkle said:

I think math is the only true science. You can prove math. All the other degrees that end in "ology"" or "studies" are just theoretical. Its what people just think about something and cannot prove definitively.

So many things are wrong with that post that it is impossible to refut it. Good work. Took lessons from trump I see.

Physiology, an ology in your phrasing, can prove things. For example, blood enters the left ventricle after being oxygenated in the lungs. We have observed it happen. If you don’t think that is proven, then nothing in life is proven

I have been reading this morning on the question, "Is math a science?". Even that part of the post is debatably wrong.