Coming "Food Shortages" (in America)

[Tiny]

TLDR;

1.)  What does "food shortages" mean to you (if you are using that term in every day life  OR  if you are hearing/seeing it)? 
2.)  Do you know anyone who has turned from grasshopper to ant when it comes to food at home? 
3.)  What does "prepping" mean to you?  
 

 
I'm not sure what "Food Shortages" actually means in the context of all the "Better Start Prepping" warningsI've been seeing (and sometimes reading) that started back in March/April...   which seems to have started when the news about the war in Ukraine would effect wheat production (and other stuff).     I do NOT doubt that parts of the world will suffer famine this year.      But I'm talking about here. 

Most of the very stern - you better prep or you'll be ssssssorrrrrryyyyyyy!!!!  you tube videos started back in March/April - well the  ones that showed up on my feed.  (I was watching "frugal" kinds of videos - so I assume that's why some of my "frugal" favorites suddenly got a little weird with the "prepping" and why suddenly some downright crazy people's videos popped up for my viewing consumption.  The theme was the shortages would happen in 3 or 4 months... 

So,  here it is almost July.       

Here's an article that was updated in June... so more recent than march/april. 
www.tasteofhome.com/article/food-shortages/

Is there worry about "food shortages"  what ever that might mean running thru your everyday life?    Or is it business as usual (but sometimes there are empty shelves at the store.) 

[djAdvocate]

[Opti]

I am seeing the issues in paper goods and frozen potatoes. Stuff that has been an issue off and on during the pandemic. Other things I do not know if it is a supply issue an ordering choice issue or something else. There is a red lentil pasta I like which is made with red lentils and rice, making it easier to digest for me. It can go weeks before it gets restocked, and one of the stores I think dropped it entirely. So I bought two boxes recently because it was in.

[wvugurl26]

I haven't seen full shelves of all frozen potatoes varieties since pre covid. Pasta comes and goes.

[happyhoix]

I’m not really understanding the shortages. I know paper is in short supply but someone told me last week that a US paper company in Florida closed last week, laying off 600 people.

My company is having problems getting some chemicals and packing components.

[resolution]

1.) What does "food shortages" mean to you (if you are using that term in every day life OR if you are hearing/seeing it)?
I don't see the united states having soviet style shortages where things are rationed and you have to secretly buy or trade for things that aren't on the shelves. When I think of shortages here, I think of what happened with the toilet paper or baby formula, where specific items run out of stock and if you aren't lucky enough to find them on the shelf you need to pay a lot more to get them online from another source. People who are financially secure may have some inconvenience getting the specific items that they want, but the poor may have to shift to different items and go without some of their normal staples. 

2.) Do you know anyone who has turned from grasshopper to ant when it comes to food at home?
I moved to a bigger house mid-pandemic and my shopping habits have definitely changed. I used to wait until something was almost gone to buy a replacement. Now I have one extra of everything that I care about, and when I use up the open container I open up the "extra" one and put it on that week's shopping list to buy a new "extra."

3.) What does "prepping" mean to you?
To me, prepping is the people that buy 10 years of freeze dried stables and keep them hidden in the basement so they can survive without any external inputs. I probably have a year's worth of meat in our basement freezer, but I don't consider it prepping because I couldn't maintain it in the absence of electrical power, and I don't keep enough gas on site to power a generator for that long.

[teen persuasion]

Just mentioned this thread to DS4, who works in a farm feed store. He makes all the feed, from basic ingredients: whole corn, wheat, oats, + minerals. He said they are OUT of oats, and getting low on wheat. The supply of wheat he's working thru now was hard to source - his boss had to call around to find anyone that had some, and then had J drive the big truck out an hour away to get it (so extra cost for gas). Usually farmers deliver supplies, or they get trainloads directly (there's a spur of the railroad that runs along their warehouse for unloading). DS4 doesn't know what happens when they run out; he can't make feed w/o inputs.

He's been told to expect lower supplies, because farmers planted less of those crops. IDK why, though; maybe the cost/supply chain issues with fertilizer due to NG supplies last fall? He mixes those, too, and prices went thru the roof, as supply fell. But it will trickle thru - farmers can't buy food for chickens and pigs, then fewer are available.

[Cheesy FL-Vol]

Jun 26, 2022 14:53:02 GMT -5 resolution said:

1.) What does "food shortages" mean to you (if you are using that term in every day life OR if you are hearing/seeing it)?
I don't see the united states having soviet style shortages where things are rationed and you have to secretly buy or trade for things that aren't on the shelves. When I think of shortages here, I think of what happened with the toilet paper or baby formula, where specific items run out of stock and if you aren't lucky enough to find them on the shelf you need to pay a lot more to get them online from another source. People who are financially secure may have some inconvenience getting the specific items that they want, but the poor may have to shift to different items and go without some of their normal staples. 

2.) Do you know anyone who has turned from grasshopper to ant when it comes to food at home?
I moved to a bigger house mid-pandemic and my shopping habits have definitely changed. I used to wait until something was almost gone to buy a replacement. Now I have one extra of everything that I care about, and when I use up the open container I open up the "extra" one and put it on that week's shopping list to buy a new "extra."

3.) What does "prepping" mean to you?
To me, prepping is the people that buy 10 years of freeze dried stables and keep them hidden in the basement so they can survive without any external inputs. I probably have a year's worth of meat in our basement freezer, but I don't consider it prepping because I couldn't maintain it in the absence of electrical power, and I don't keep enough gas on site to power a generator for that long.

I have been going this route too, but mainly because we bought a house in the sticks mid-pandemic, and if for some reason I am unable to do regularly scheduled grocery shopping, I don't have to worry about running out of something.

[Sharon]

My DSIL is a farmer and one of the most laid back guys you could ever meet.  I've heard him say more than once, No need to get excited.  He is very concerned about food shortages.  He was talking about Russia and Ukraine being major wheat producers for the world and with those two countries at war the farmers won't be planting.  He has also mentioned how in the US they are having a hard time getting fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides etc.  When they can get them the price is sky high.  Then factor in the cost of gas and things don't look very good.

He has talked with my DD about being well stocked with food and other essentials for the family.  Because of this I have actually bought food grade buckets for extra storage.  I now have 75lbs of flour and 50lbs of sugar in my pantry in addition to several pounds of corn meal and popcorn which can be ground down into corn meal.  My DD puts me to shame she has gone crazy with her food storage.  This isn't something she has ever done before and she says if in a year or two the world gets back to normal she will scale back but right now they are concerned.

[dondub]

Numerous empty shelves in the produce department yesterday. I needed a cuke. No cukes!

[Cheesy FL-Vol]

I am sure the severe drought in the West which is encroaching into the central part of the country is a major factor in what we are finding (or not finding) in the stores.

www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor

[Tiny]

Ok, I'm feeling nerdy (I started baking bread (for the first time ever) in April/May to use up some yeast packets)

there are 15 to 20 cups of flour in a 5 pound bag. The loaf of bread I make calls for 3 cups of flour. so lets go with 15 cups (5 loaves of bread). (why would anyone need 50 pounds of sugar - unless alcohol is being brewed...)

75/5 = 15 5 pound bags - 15 * 5 = 75 loaves of bread. (even at 2 loaves a week - that 9.5 months worth of bread...
(why would anyone need 50 pounds of sugar - unless alcohol is being brewed...  ADDED:  OK, hot water bath canning calls for a lot of sugar -  so  I can now rationalize needing 50 pounds of sugar)



When people are stocking up - raw ingredients - how are they accounting for using the raw materials?

It's like being chuck wagon cook OR a military cook - gotta make sure you have enough food to get your cowboys or soldiers thru the cattle drive/military campaign.

What kind of 12 month (or 9.5) month meal planning is being done? What does that look like? Once the initial build up is done -will no futher shopping be done? How does that work??

If you are moving from a JIT (Just in Time inventory system) for feeding yourself/your family to a different inventory system (LIFO? FIFO? something else?) how do you accomplish making that change?

This ties back to my initial post - once you have 3 or 6 or 12 months of "supplies" - do you NOT use them until the emergency happens or do you start using them right away and re-filling as you go along?   Do you spend a few weeks/months coming up with new recipes/meal plans?  Do you 

I feel like stocking up requires more thought and planning than just buying and storing a shit ton of "food"...


FWIW: For food - I have the menu plans/recipes and food on hand to get me thru about 3 months of not being able to shop. I will have little to no food left and will be eating PB&Js on corn tortilla (or whatever "bread like thing" is left...) for the final few days... I use a LIFO (last in first out) system. And I don't always replace one to one - but rather re-fill based on sales/availability.    (ADDED:  to clarify this (my brain doesn't work like everyone elses)... I use the oldest stuff first...  so new stuff goes to the back and everything else gets pushed forward so it gets used up.)     I don't think that's LIFO (my brain translates "last thing bought" to the thing that's been here the longest...  I'm complicated.) 

I worry more about a prolonged power outage (more than 24 hours - as that will effect my basement chest freezer) than anything else. I just survived a 14 hour storm related outage - and my fridge and fridge freezer were ok... but mostly because I didn't have much that was super sensitive to temperature change - and I made the effort since the outage to use up what was in my freezer/fridge.

[Sharon]

The 50lbs of sugar will mostly be used for canning.  Between making jelly, and canning applesauce, cherries, apricots, peaches, pears etc a lot of sugar will be used.  It is also cheaper to buy it in 25lb bags.  What we have been doing is an initial ramp up of supplies that we use and then after that FIFO and replace to roughly maintain the supply.

[Tiny]

In the Adult Beverage theme... if grains are in short supply - will the price of Adult Beverages go up??  Has the price of Adult Beverages gone up?  I don't drink much...

[teen persuasion]

Jun 28, 2022 11:02:37 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Ok, I'm feeling nerdy (I started baking bread (for the first time ever) in April/May to use up some yeast packets)

there are 15 to 20 cups of flour in a 5 pound bag. The loaf of bread I make calls for 3 cups of flour. so lets go with 15 cups (5 loaves of bread). (why would anyone need 50 pounds of sugar - unless alcohol is being brewed...)

75/5 = 15 5 pound bags - 15 * 5 = 75 loaves of bread. (even at 2 loaves a week - that 9.5 months worth of bread...
(why would anyone need 50 pounds of sugar - unless alcohol is being brewed...  ADDED:  OK, hot water bath canning calls for a lot of sugar -  so  I can now rationalize needing 50 pounds of sugar)



When people are stocking up - raw ingredients - how are they accounting for using the raw materials?

It's like being chuck wagon cook OR a military cook - gotta make sure you have enough food to get your cowboys or soldiers thru the cattle drive/military campaign.

What kind of 12 month (or 9.5) month meal planning is being done? What does that look like? Once the initial build up is done -will no futher shopping be done? How does that work??

If you are moving from a JIT (Just in Time inventory system) for feeding yourself/your family to a different inventory system (LIFO? FIFO? something else?) how do you accomplish making that change?

This ties back to my initial post - once you have 3 or 6 or 12 months of "supplies" - do you NOT use them until the emergency happens or do you start using them right away and re-filling as you go along?   Do you spend a few weeks/months coming up with new recipes/meal plans?  Do you 

I feel like stocking up requires more thought and planning than just buying and storing a shit ton of "food"...


FWIW: For food - I have the menu plans/recipes and food on hand to get me thru about 3 months of not being able to shop. I will have little to no food left and will be eating PB&Js on corn tortilla (or whatever "bread like thing" is left...) for the final few days... I use a LIFO (last in first out) system. And I don't always replace one to one - but rather re-fill based on sales/availability.    (ADDED:  to clarify this (my brain doesn't work like everyone elses)... I use the oldest stuff first...  so new stuff goes to the back and everything else gets pushed forward so it gets used up.)     I don't think that's LIFO (my brain translates "last thing bought" to the thing that's been here the longest...  I'm complicated.) 

I worry more about a prolonged power outage (more than 24 hours - as that will effect my basement chest freezer) than anything else. I just survived a 14 hour storm related outage - and my fridge and fridge freezer were ok... but mostly because I didn't have much that was super sensitive to temperature change - and I made the effort since the outage to use up what was in my freezer/fridge.

I'm not outrageously organized, I just shop opportunisticly. Oh, look, bagels are on sale buy extra (but they have a limited shelf life, so maybe 2 pkgs). Canned spaghetti sauce? Buy 10.

When supplies of individual items got sketchy, I started buying one extra of my normal basics per week, to build up a supply in case they weren't available later: flour, rice, pasta, tissues, cheese. So I have built up a bigger stash than usual on some things, and others are hard to find: tissues, granola bars, raisin bran cereal, margarine. Some things we seem to be going thru faster than usual: peanut butter, spaghetti sauce, cereal, snacks.

I'm having trouble buying foods for DS4, to keep him fed. His job is physical, so he burns calories like mad and always wants more to tide him over thru work. It seems like everything he chooses as easy to pack/eat for lunch is in short supply lately: those granola bars, pretzels, fruit (that packs well), cold cuts, cheese, certain types of bread, pretzels, etc, and raisin bran for breakfast (over lighter cereals the don't fill).

It seems like the carb aisle (snacks/chips/cookies/crackers) is pretty lean RN and my guys inhale carbs. I've gotten in a habit of making pizza for dinner on Fridays; it's about 6 cups of flour for the dough (some becomes breadsticks). When cookies are scarce, I could make cookies, that's another 2+ cups of flour per batch, might last 4-5 days. Make a batch of biscuits to go with dinner, or for strawberry shortcake, another 2 cups flour. Make noodles, for soup, or spaetzle, or for lasagne, a few more cups of flour. Pancakes/waffles on the weekend, 2-3 cups flour. I haven't even reached the point of baking ALL our bread (4-5 commercial loaves, so more homemade) and bagels (for DS5 who doesn't do cereal), and crackers and buns for hot dogs/hamburgers, and...
50 lbs of flour would go fast if I were baking all of our food from scratch.

[Sharon]

teen persuasion I don't know if Wheaties are in short supply but I actually prefer wheaties where I have added the raisins to Raisin Bran.

[wvugurl26]

I buy flour and sugar in 10 pounds bags. I go through several of each a year. I do most baking and cooking from scratch. I have always tried to keep at least one extra of non-perishables on hand. It's not that hard when recipes call for 2-3 cups at a time to use it up.

[Deleted]

When the pandemic hit, it changed our buying/eating habits and we haven't gone back to our pre-pandemic ways.  We are much more mindful of food waste.  We used to throw out any uneaten parts of meals/baked goods, now we freeze everything for later.  Also as soon as I open something, I put it on my list to buy the next one.  

I am not noticing food shortages yet, except for Jif peanut butter, so mild inconvenience there.  

[jerseygirl]

Ukraine and Russia are the bread basket of the world, around 30-40% of wheat and corn, cooking oils
Fertilizer is made from oil and natural gas
WSJ had article today that the big industrial area of Germany, including BASF, is contemplating a shut down due to decreases in natural gas

Food shortages are just starting
Africa and Europe will feel it more or quicker than US and Canada

[resolution]

I recently returned from a short visit to Poland and spent a couple of weeks with a local tour guide who grew up during the soviet occupation. Each family was given monthly ration cards for the things they were allowed to buy. He had all kinds of stories about the tiny size of their monthly rations for meat, sugar, and various food staples and how they used to trade with other households to get enough for food prep. The factories were all assigned where to send their products, so under the table deals also had to be made for things like building materials and furniture.

I don't expect things to get like that here, but its a stark image for me of how far a modern society can suddenly fall. 

[haapai]

Jun 26, 2022 11:38:19 GMT -5 Tiny said:

TLDR;

1.)  What does "food shortages" mean to you (if you are using that term in every day life  OR  if you are hearing/seeing it)? 
2.)  Do you know anyone who has turned from grasshopper to ant when it comes to food at home? 
3.)  What does "prepping" mean to you?  
 

1.) To me a "food shortage" means that the staple carbohydrate is in short supply and/or is much more expensive.  I tend to think of the Irish potato famine as an example but the staple food could be cassava or rice or wheat.  Whatever the food item is, it's usually the backbone of the diet of the poor and there is no way to substitute it for anything cheaper.  FWIW, I grew up in less developed places where this happened. 

2.) I don't know of anyone who has started storing large amounts of food at home.  Most of us are still trying to eat our way through what we bought in 2020 and swearing never to do that again.  OTOH, I don't talk to too many people IRL, especially not about money. 

3.)  For me, "prepping" is an irrational fear response that makes people feel like they have some sort of control.  To some, it may be calming to squirrel away necessities against a future calamity.  I think that for others, doing pretty much the same thing exacerbates the fear. 

I think that we will see quite a bit of hunger in the US but not much starvation.  We may never see a one pound box of pasta priced at 79 cents again.  Folks who rely on pasta for cheap carbohydrates will feel the pain and feel very set-upon.  Other folks, who have more money, will probably see pasta priced at $1.29 or $1.49 a pound and just refuse to pay that much for what was once cheap food and buy something else.  Because of this, I don't think that cheap carbs are going to become Geffen goods in the US.  I can't say the same for the rest of the world. 

I'm not going to throw stones at folks who start going a little heavier on dried pasta to prepare themselves for price hikes.  Four boxes of pasta or whatever number of boxes will last from one good sale to another, don't take up a whole lot of room and it probably won't go bad.  Do it if it makes you feel more in control.  On the other hand, be a bit sparing with the vegetable oil.  That stuff will go rancid if you are not careful. 

Personally, I dislike having the term "food shortages" used in the US context.  What we have are high food prices and some empty shelves.  That's not a food shortage in my book.  

[laterbloomer]

We are not close to anything I would call a food shortage in North America. We might be short of particular items but there is no danger of anyone going hungry because of lack of food available unless they are very finicky.

[haapai]

Jun 29, 2022 14:41:07 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

We are not close to anything I would call a food shortage in North America. We might be short of particular items but there is no danger of anyone going hungry because of lack of food available unless they are very finicky.

Just because it shouldn't be called a food shortage and won't be a famine doesn't mean that there won't be plenty of hunger and misery here.  There will be food on the shelves but the prices will be high.  Households that spend a great deal of their income on cheap food and gasoline will really be hurting. 

I work with a lot of people like that.  On the other hand, since they constantly complain about the cost of gas et al, it is hard to judge the financial pain that they will soon be experiencing. 

[laterbloomer]

Jun 29, 2022 14:51:30 GMT -5 haapai said:

Jun 29, 2022 14:41:07 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

We are not close to anything I would call a food shortage in North America. We might be short of particular items but there is no danger of anyone going hungry because of lack of food available unless they are very finicky.

Just because it shouldn't be called a food shortage and won't be a famine doesn't mean that there won't be plenty of hunger and misery here.  There will be food on the shelves but the prices will be high.  Households that spend a great deal of their income on cheap food and gasoline will really be hurting. 

I work with a lot of people like that.  On the other hand, since they constantly complain about the cost of gas et al, it is hard to judge the financial pain that they will soon be experiencing. 

I considered making that distinction in my post. Food bank usage is way up. But that is not a food shortage issue. That's a poverty issue.

[haapai]

I wonder if the price increases will be relatively higher for lower-end foods.  I'm seeing an awful lot of things that used to be priced at 99 cents at $1.29 and $1.49 and rarely on sale, or on the shelf when they are on sale.  Percentage-wise, that's a terrible rate of inflation that's striking what appear to be the cheapest foods available.

On the other hand, I don't really trust my own judgement here.  I may be reacting too strongly to prices going over a dollar. 

[busymom]

DD volunteers at a local food shelf every month, and the day the bags are handed out (people drive up) it's always interesting to find out what was left.  People tend to refuse items like onions & sweet potatoes.  But, if a food shortage does hit hard, I think people might be less picky.  Or at least learn to cook with whatever the food shelf has available.

[haapai]

Jun 29, 2022 15:28:06 GMT -5 busymom said:

DD volunteers at a local food shelf every month, and the day the bags are handed out (people drive up) it's always interesting to find out what was left.  People tend to refuse items like onions & sweet potatoes.  But, if a food shortage does hit hard, I think people might be less picky.  Or at least learn to cook with whatever the food shelf has available.

Oooh, tell me more.  I'm always interested in the mechanics of things.  I've heard of food that someone didn't like being left in the parking lot but you seem to be describing something slightly different.  Are people handing food back?  Are they being given a designated area in which to examine the contents of the bag and drop off what they cannot see themselves ever turning into a meal? 

FWIW, I don't have a single problem with someone receiving a bag of food at a food bank and then going through it and leaving some items behind, especially if it is something that you don't know how to prepare or don't have the equipment or gumption to turn into a meal.  I'm perfectly fine with somebody living in a motel or in their car refusing a food item that requires an oven or a stove to cook.  Muslims and Seventh Day Adventists should not be shamed for handing back a can of pork and beans.  Nobody allergic to legumes or tree nuts should be faulted for refusing an item that contains them or even was processed on the same line. 

So what's the setup?  Are folks encouraged to go through their bag of food?  Do they have to refuse it in front of someone else?  Are they given a designated area for going through their bag and leaving the "ain't-gonna-happens"?

[Opti]

Jun 29, 2022 15:28:06 GMT -5 busymom said:

DD volunteers at a local food shelf every month, and the day the bags are handed out (people drive up) it's always interesting to find out what was left.  People tend to refuse items like onions & sweet potatoes.  But, if a food shortage does hit hard, I think people might be less picky.  Or at least learn to cook with whatever the food shelf has available.

I love onions. I'd only refuse if I had too many already.

[busymom]

Jun 29, 2022 16:01:18 GMT -5 haapai said:

Jun 29, 2022 15:28:06 GMT -5 busymom said:

DD volunteers at a local food shelf every month, and the day the bags are handed out (people drive up) it's always interesting to find out what was left.  People tend to refuse items like onions & sweet potatoes.  But, if a food shortage does hit hard, I think people might be less picky.  Or at least learn to cook with whatever the food shelf has available.

Oooh, tell me more.  I'm always interested in the mechanics of things.  I've heard of food that someone didn't like being left in the parking lot but you seem to be describing something slightly different.  Are people handing food back?  Are they being given a designated area in which to examine the contents of the bag and drop off what they cannot see themselves ever turning into a meal? 

FWIW, I don't have a single problem with someone receiving a bag of food at a food bank and then going through it and leaving some items behind, especially if it is something that you don't know how to prepare or don't have the equipment or gumption to turn into a meal.  I'm perfectly fine with somebody living in a motel or in their car refusing a food item that requires an oven or a stove to cook.  Muslims and Seventh Day Adventists should not be shamed for handing back a can of pork and beans.  Nobody allergic to legumes or tree nuts should be faulted for refusing an item that contains them or even was processed on the same line. 

So what's the setup?  Are folks encouraged to go through their bag of food?  Do they have to refuse it in front of someone else?  Are they given a designated area for going through their bag and leaving the "ain't-gonna-happens"?

  I'll have to ask DD for more details, but I do know they have "food stations", each with specific food items.  Every month they have basic food items, but what is available changes from month to month.  


   Our church used to have cans & boxes of food that was given to anyone who asked, but the problem was that folks were given grocery bags with food, and the church discovered later that whatever wasn't wanted was "deposited" in the dumpster behind the church.  Of course, no one wants to see food wasted.  Now, our church gives out gift cards from a neighborhood grocery store, so folks can decide for themselves what they want.

[jerseygirl]

Our church always has grocery store certificates for people to buy. The certificates are given to people and then can be used to buy the food they will actually use. Formerly had a food bank but so many of the donated food was almost outdated or vegetables most people didn’t really want
About 4-6 times/year our diocese runs a food donation. Each church has 2-3 specific items for people to donate. Last month the items for our church was little wierd! beans and toilet paper
Guess with all the churches in the diocese it makes a balanced diet and other essentials