Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Mar 17, 2021 17:53:07 GMT -5
I don't think the case rate is going to improve for a while, but I expect the death rate to continue declining. this is actually happening GLOBALLY. because we disproportionately share the case and death count, what happens here tends to correlate to the global trend. Brazil is worrisome. new records in cases and deaths. Any idea the vaccination rate?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 17, 2021 18:25:19 GMT -5
I don't think the case rate is going to improve for a while, but I expect the death rate to continue declining. this is actually happening GLOBALLY. because we disproportionately share the case and death count, what happens here tends to correlate to the global trend. Brazil is worrisome. new records in cases and deaths. Any idea the vaccination rate? none. but Bolsonaro (sic), who is pretty Trumpy, is still in charge down there. that is why I am worried. I would feel similarly worried about the outlook for the US if Trump was still in charge, here. the vaccines would be languishing in some vacant casino or something.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Mar 17, 2021 19:19:17 GMT -5
Any idea the vaccination rate? none. but Bolsonaro (sic), who is pretty Trumpy, is still in charge down there. that is why I am worried. I would feel similarly worried about the outlook for the US if Trump was still in charge, here. the vaccines would be languishing in some vacant casino or something. At room temperature....
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2021 19:52:23 GMT -5
I’ve been concerned that we were doing too much, too soon, even without the troublesome variants. I don’t care what opens, or even if all restrictions are lifted everywhere, I’m still going to sit tight for a while, despite my desire to be out and about. Especially now that B117 and crew have appeared.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 7, 2021 10:06:18 GMT -5
Yesterday, the NYT published an extremely interesting article As Variants Have Spread, Progress Against the Virus in U.S. Has Stalled. It covers a wide range of topics and has some nifty graphs. If you don't care about the NY and CA variants of concern, keep scrolling because there is another section and another set of graphs that is worth seeing and, after that, a bit regarding the change in the ages of people being hospitalized (and another amazing graph that you might not see anywhere else). Phew! What a run-on! Please forgive me.
Unlike most other articles in the Coronavirus Outbreak section, this article seems to have disappeared or been moved to a place where it is practically impossible to find with unusual speed. I find this unfortunate because this might be a very important article to read. I humbly suggest that if you haven't already created a NYT account and signed up for the free Coronavirus Outbreak coverage, you might want to do so now. We seem to have entered an interesting stage in the epidemic when many epidemiologists have become strangely silent and unwilling to make predictions regarding what will happen next.
Britain imposed a lock-down at almost exactly the same time that they started vaccinating, so be careful about hoping that we can vaccinate our way out of this anytime soon.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 7, 2021 13:54:04 GMT -5
B.1.1.7 is "now the most common lineage circulating in United States," CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said at a White House media briefing on Wednesday.
Admitting that you have a problem is the first step.
The announcement comes as the number of cases — particularly among younger Americans — has been on the rise in the U.S., fueling fears that the nation may be facing yet another deadly surge.
Walensky said the newer strain has been shown to be more transmissible among younger people and that new outbreaks in the U.S. have been linked to youth sports and day care centers.
She urged people not to let their guard down and to get vaccinated as soon as possible. She said that communities and states with high levels of transmission need to curtail or suspend sports activities for younger participants to contain the spread of the new strain. She also said large events in affected communities needed to be curtailed.
Hopefully, this announcement and the recommendations to curtail youth sports and large events in affected community will give my governor the courage to do what has to be done. She'll catch hella flack for it, but we can't afford to wait until some other state acts.
This is the second time that Michigan has been hit early and hard, although this time the explosion in cases did not start in the Detroit area (although it may have landed at Detroit Metro, possibly multiple times.) You can't really see it on the map now, since the rest of the state is rapidly turning the worst color on the scale, but the tip of the thumb is were things got hot early on in this wave. The wave has now reached Wayne and Oakland counties, but it didn't begin there.
I can no longer recall which other US states were hotspots for the first wave, but there might be some correlation.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Apr 7, 2021 21:01:35 GMT -5
Yes. I've been following this. I don't think the general population knows or would care if they did know.
I'm not sure how many are dying from the variant. I'm guessing the 'hope' that surviving it is a matter of a few days in the hospital is what's making most people shrug it off.
I don't think the full awfulness of having to spend a few days in the hospital registers with people who haven't ever been to a hospital (or spent time there with a loved one).
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Apr 8, 2021 4:04:03 GMT -5
It has the advantage of being more infectious than the original variant....... so it has pushed out and replaced the original infection in many areas of the World. Including the US and Europe.
We have had it since January and its why we went in to Lockdown.
Good news.... is that its controlled by the existing vaccines.
There are more dangerous variants in circulation.... ie not controlled by vaccine, higher mortality...... but whilst this is your proliferation.... its unlikely to let anything else in.
You know it has the potential to cause another wave....... so now is the time to ban large events and take more care.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 8, 2021 13:13:20 GMT -5
Yeah, I worry a lot about the variants that seem to have acquired mutations that allow them to get around immunity from prior infection or current vaccines. To control those, we'll need different vaccines (and another vaccination program) or mitigation measures. There's not a whole lot of buy-in for mitigation measures in the States right now and the CDC is slow-walking acknowledgement of the danger of many of their variants of concern.
Maybe I'm looking ahead at their emergence only to distract myself from what is happening now.
I'm fairly convinced that Michigan is early out of the chute and that what is happening here is going to sweep across the rest of the country in a pattern that we have seen before.
We haven't learned much from Europe even though they are consistently ahead of us by a couple of weeks.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Apr 8, 2021 14:16:38 GMT -5
I was reading about it on CNN< can't find that one but I did find this one. They are already on researching this possibly ending up like the flu shot and how effective the current vaccine is against them. www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/first-moderna-now-pfizer-biontech-also-working-booster-shot-amid-rise-covid-19-variantsOne major concern over emerging coronavirus variants focuses on their impact on the efficacy of existing vaccines. But drugmakers appear to have countermeasures in the works.
Pfizer and partner BioNTech are developing booster shots so that their COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty can protect against new, highly contagious variants, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, Ph.D., said Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
“Every time a new variant comes up we should be able to test whether or not [our vaccine] is effective,” Bourla was quoted as saying. “Once we discover something that it is not as effective, we will very, very quickly be able to produce a booster dose that will be a small variation to the current vaccine.”
The really awesome thing about mRNA vaccines that people aren't aware of is it's significantly easier to manufacture a new version than it would be if this had to be done via the traditional model of vaccines. Imagine trying to grow all these boosters in eggs. For mRNA all they have to do is alter the sequence and away it goes into clinical trials. Here is the CNN article I was reading www.cnn.com/2021/04/04/health/covid-vaccine-protection-lasting-variants-wellness/index.htmlThe latest report from vaccine maker Pfizer shows people in South Africa who got its coronavirus vaccine after B.1.351 became the dominant circulating virus were still very strongly protected from infection -- something that backs up laboratory experiments that have shown the vaccine causes such a strong and broad immune response that it provides a cushion against any effects of mutant viruses.
"It is still matched enough that we have good protection," said Scott Hensley, an immunologist and vaccine expert at the University of Pennsylvania.
Science is amazing. Suck it deniers.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 8, 2021 14:39:55 GMT -5
Look, I appreciate the "plug and play" potential of mRNA vaccines. It's absolutely stunning how once you have the genetic sequence of a virus, you have the ability to design a new vaccine.
A new vaccine that comes wrapped in an unstable lipid molecule that is a nightmare to distribute. Also, a new booster shot for each variant. Never, ever, a booster shot that confers protection for two or more different variants.
A new, improved model every year that you just have to buy. Oh, joy! Can we say "designed obsolescence"?
The science and technology behind this is amazing, but the monetization of it is beyond disgusting.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 8, 2021 16:04:38 GMT -5
Look, I appreciate the "plug and play" potential of mRNA vaccines. It's absolutely stunning how once you have the genetic sequence of a virus, you have the ability to design a new vaccine.
A new vaccine that comes wrapped in an unstable lipid molecule that is a nightmare to distribute. Also, a new booster shot for each variant. Never, ever, a booster shot that confers protection for two or more different variants.
A new, improved model every year that you just have to buy. Oh, joy! Can we say "designed obsolescence"?
The science and technology behind this is amazing, but the monetization of it is beyond disgusting.
That is a cynical take. The technology allowed us to make a functional vaccine in 9 months. it is the equivalent of the moon shot. As drama pointed out, the technology is highly adaptable. There is no nefarious motive. There are clear advantages to this type of vaccine. Fewer antigens are given(compared to traditional vaccines), likely leading to a better immune response, and a likely lower risk of vaccine associated allergic reactions. I suspect that the current vaccines will be effective against most variants given how they were designed, This is one virus, not a family like influenza. Its ability to mutate and still cause havoc is very narrow. I would be surprised if we need to get a booster due to the variants. it is far more likely we will need boosters due to waning immunity.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 8, 2021 16:13:36 GMT -5
Look, I appreciate the "plug and play" potential of mRNA vaccines. It's absolutely stunning how once you have the genetic sequence of a virus, you have the ability to design a new vaccine.
A new vaccine that comes wrapped in an unstable lipid molecule that is a nightmare to distribute. Also, a new booster shot for each variant. Never, ever, a booster shot that confers protection for two or more different variants.
A new, improved model every year that you just have to buy. Oh, joy! Can we say "designed obsolescence"?
The science and technology behind this is amazing, but the monetization of it is beyond disgusting.
Huh? Do you think that the scientists are driving these mutations? The scientists have got a way of keeping closer on track, far easier than with the flu vaccine. I’d hate to see how long it would take to produce vaccines on a dime if we needed to grow the viruses in eggs. These variants popped up AFTER the vaccine had gotten EUA, where do you get the idea that they can’t do more than one variant in a vaccine? They very well might.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 8, 2021 16:41:49 GMT -5
I agree that I am being very cynical.
I also get your point that this is a relatively simple virus and despite how many times it has made fools of us, it has a limited number of possible tricks to play on us.
The enemy here might be the humans, not the virus. My blood boils when a C-speaker promises investors a new vaccine or booster whenever a monetizable mutation shows up, This guy seems to be talking more to investors than folks involved in public health. <Bad-word> him no matter how miraculous hit shot was!
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 8, 2021 16:59:22 GMT -5
Oh Ch-word no, I do not think that scientists are behind the way this virus is mutating! I ain't that tinfoil-hat.
I just live in Fordlandia and I know how well planned obsolescence works. This guy seems to be promising investors that there will be a new booster shot every time a significant (or not) mutation occurs. He's promising revenue. He absolutely seems to be promising one booster shot at a time in order to maximize revenue.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Apr 8, 2021 17:37:09 GMT -5
From what I can see, there's a lot of genome sequencing going on.... and the variants are being tracked as far as is possible. The one which they are looking at is a mutation known as E484K... originally seen in variants from Brazil and SA but now more widespread.
They're on it.... If we need a booster, so be it.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Apr 8, 2021 18:18:51 GMT -5
From what I can see, there's a lot of genome sequencing going on.... and the variants are being tracked as far as is possible. The one which they are looking at is a mutation known as E484K... originally seen in variants from Brazil and SA but now more widespread. They're on it.... If we need a booster, so be it. The E484K mutation is showing up everywhere, and I don't think that evil scientists are behind it. Physics and chemistry probably explain why it seems to be present in almost every VOC.
I also don't want to pay out and/or lock down each time another variant with an Eeek mutation becomes interesting or widespread or scary. The mutation appears to cause the spike protein associated with it to change shape quite dramatically, but do we have to pay ransom every time another variant of interest acquires this mutation? We might not have to give a flip about the rest of the genetic code of a virus that contains this variation. We just need vaccines that protect us from this sort of change in the docking structure.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2021 15:57:20 GMT -5
Yesterday, the NYT published an extremely interesting article As Variants Have Spread, Progress Against the Virus in U.S. Has Stalled. It covers a wide range of topics and has some nifty graphs. If you don't care about the NY and CA variants of concern, keep scrolling because there is another section and another set of graphs that is worth seeing and, after that, a bit regarding the change in the ages of people being hospitalized (and another amazing graph that you might not see anywhere else). Phew! What a run-on! Please forgive me.
Unlike most other articles in the Coronavirus Outbreak section, this article seems to have disappeared or been moved to a place where it is practically impossible to find with unusual speed. I find this unfortunate because this might be a very important article to read. I humbly suggest that if you haven't already created a NYT account and signed up for the free Coronavirus Outbreak coverage, you might want to do so now. We seem to have entered an interesting stage in the epidemic when many epidemiologists have become strangely silent and unwilling to make predictions regarding what will happen next.
Britain imposed a lock-down at almost exactly the same time that they started vaccinating, so be careful about hoping that we can vaccinate our way out of this anytime soon.
I like that decision in the UK. it is smart psychology.
I disagree that the situation is getting worse in the US. the overall picture may not be getting getter, but I think it is not getting worse. it is getting vastly better here in CA, and quite a few other places, and getting worse in some places. the overall picture is murky, but I don't think it is worse.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Apr 10, 2021 16:17:07 GMT -5
Yes and our infection rate plummeted. Was it the lockdown, or was it the vaccine? who knows .... but you need quite a high take-up for herd immunity,, neither of us are there ... and there is a mutation that could cause a problem. Dunno... nobody is out of the Woods yet.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Apr 10, 2021 16:42:46 GMT -5
Yesterday, the NYT published an extremely interesting article As Variants Have Spread, Progress Against the Virus in U.S. Has Stalled. It covers a wide range of topics and has some nifty graphs. If you don't care about the NY and CA variants of concern, keep scrolling because there is another section and another set of graphs that is worth seeing and, after that, a bit regarding the change in the ages of people being hospitalized (and another amazing graph that you might not see anywhere else). Phew! What a run-on! Please forgive me.
Unlike most other articles in the Coronavirus Outbreak section, this article seems to have disappeared or been moved to a place where it is practically impossible to find with unusual speed. I find this unfortunate because this might be a very important article to read. I humbly suggest that if you haven't already created a NYT account and signed up for the free Coronavirus Outbreak coverage, you might want to do so now. We seem to have entered an interesting stage in the epidemic when many epidemiologists have become strangely silent and unwilling to make predictions regarding what will happen next.
Britain imposed a lock-down at almost exactly the same time that they started vaccinating, so be careful about hoping that we can vaccinate our way out of this anytime soon.
I like that decision in the UK. it is smart psychology.
I disagree that the situation is getting worse in the US. the overall picture may not be getting getter, but I think it is not getting worse. it is getting vastly better here in CA, and quite a few other places, and getting worse in some places. the overall picture is murky, but I don't think it is worse.
I've been following Worldometer and according to them it is. Cases per day are even ticking up slowly in CA. Per Worldometer two days ago the US had 80, 309 cases, yesterday at 85, 516 and now with results not fully in we are at 57K something. I think in the near term we are more likely to approach 100K cases a day than 50K cases a day.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 11, 2021 21:48:38 GMT -5
I don't think the case rate is going to improve for a while, but I expect the death rate to continue declining. this is actually happening GLOBALLY. because we disproportionately share the case and death count, what happens here tends to correlate to the global trend. Brazil is worrisome. new records in cases and deaths. Any idea the vaccination rate? I just read today that they are getting Sinovac, which is only 50% effective. it might be better to watch death rates than case rates because of that.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Apr 11, 2021 22:14:32 GMT -5
From what I can see, there's a lot of genome sequencing going on.... and the variants are being tracked as far as is possible. The one which they are looking at is a mutation known as E484K... originally seen in variants from Brazil and SA but now more widespread. They're on it.... If we need a booster, so be it. The E484K mutation is showing up everywhere, and I don't think that evil scientists are behind it. Physics and chemistry probably explain why it seems to be present in almost every VOC.
I also don't want to pay out and/or lock down each time another variant with an Eeek mutation becomes interesting or widespread or scary. The mutation appears to cause the spike protein associated with it to change shape quite dramatically, but do we have to pay ransom every time another variant of interest acquires this mutation? We might not have to give a flip about the rest of the genetic code of a virus that contains this variation. We just need vaccines that protect us from this sort of change in the docking structure.
Any appreciable change in the spike protein will cause it not to attach to the ACE receptor, as it has a lock/key sort of action. If the virus cannot attach to the receptor, it can’t get inside, infect the cell and replicate. If this happens, then the virus is obsolescent, and a vaccine doesn’t really matter.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 12, 2021 10:44:03 GMT -5
So the crabapples are out here saying that the FDA has not approved the vaccine. They claim that emergency protocol is not the same as approved, and should only be used for the most at risk populations and the rest of us should wait for the full approval.
Help me bridge that gap.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 12, 2021 10:57:07 GMT -5
So the crabapples are out here saying that the FDA has not approved the vaccine. They claim that emergency protocol is not the same as approved, and should only be used for the most at risk populations and the rest of us should wait for the full approval. Help me bridge that gap. 1 How are they going to protect themselves otherwise? 2 This is not going away, we will continue to have cases for the foreseeable future. 3 There are no real effective treatments for this 4 10% of people with mild disease still have symptoms at 8 months(loss of taste/smell, shortness of breath, fatigue, brain "fog"), with no known treatments to reverse them 5 The long term side effects of COVID-19 are unknown at this point 6 Mask wearing at many places will continue if we do not have enough uptake(especially at hospitals, which will continue to limit visitors as well) 7 The economy will not fully recover unless we control these outbreaks, which will be impossible without vaccination 8 The more we let it spread, the higher chance of a really bad mutation happening, and finally, 9 We will not have long term data until we have had this disease and vaccine for a long term. Do you really want to have this hanging over our head for years
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 12, 2021 12:22:24 GMT -5
Thanks - those are great talking points, and I am glad you laid all that out. I will use these. But, I think I worded my question poorly.
Is an emergency approval an approval or not? In what cases have we used emergency approvals before - has it always been one of those "they will be dead in 6 months anyways, let them try it" type of situation? Is this emergency approval for a vaccine unprecedented? Is there a substantial history of things that got emergency approved, but not fully approved? Is that due to safety or efficacy?
How do I wrap my brain around the FDA portion of this approved vs not approved stuff?
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 12, 2021 12:58:17 GMT -5
Thanks - those are great talking points, and I am glad you laid all that out. I will use these. But, I think I worded my question poorly. Is an emergency approval an approval or not? In what cases have we used emergency approvals before - has it always been one of those "they will be dead in 6 months anyways, let them try it" type of situation? Is this emergency approval for a vaccine unprecedented? Is there a substantial history of things that got emergency approved, but not fully approved? Is that due to safety or efficacy? How do I wrap my brain around the FDA portion of this approved vs not approved stuff? There are any number of reasons for emergency approval. Happened for many AIDS medications. Happened for the Ebola treatment. It will happen again. There has been all kinds of demands for the FDA to allow people to "try" medications for fatal diseases prior to approval. And don't forget, hydroxychloroquine had an EUA for its use early in the pandemic. Even though it was an approved medication, there was little data to support its use in COVID. And there have been a number of EUAs since for COVID(convalescent plasma, monoclonal antibodies, tocilizumab)> I bet the vaccine hesitant would agree to take any of theose treatments(and would have taken hydroxychloroquine) for COVID if they were hospitalized.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Apr 12, 2021 13:06:19 GMT -5
"On February 4, 2020, the HHS Secretary determined that there is a public health emergency that has a significant potential to affect national security or the health and security of United States citizens living abroad, and that involves the virus that causes COVID-19. Subsequent HHS declarations supporting use of EUAs" www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained. Vaccine manufacturers also have immunity to liability under the Prep Act.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Apr 12, 2021 13:28:14 GMT -5
I agree with almost everything you wrote in the above 2 posts, except for the timing. These variants will slow our progress, and delay the time frame. How much isn’t known due to insufficient information such as how well the vaccines and natural immunity work against them. have you read about "vaccine nationalism"? it is predictable, but kind of unethical and unnerving. because the vaccines are developed in the West, if you are not part of the EU and the US, you are not going to get vaccinated this year. at least that is the prediction.
what are your thoughts and feelings on this subject?
Bhutan has already vaccinated 94% of its adult population. I'm reasonably certain it's not part of the EU or the US.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 12, 2021 13:48:06 GMT -5
Thanks - those are great talking points, and I am glad you laid all that out. I will use these. But, I think I worded my question poorly. Is an emergency approval an approval or not? In what cases have we used emergency approvals before - has it always been one of those "they will be dead in 6 months anyways, let them try it" type of situation? Is this emergency approval for a vaccine unprecedented? Is there a substantial history of things that got emergency approved, but not fully approved? Is that due to safety or efficacy? How do I wrap my brain around the FDA portion of this approved vs not approved stuff? If you really want to blow their minds, remind them that the monoclonal antibodies Trump was treated with were approved under an EUA. That would shut up rational people, not sure about those you are interacting with.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Apr 12, 2021 16:19:07 GMT -5
Did I read that you guys should have offered a vaccine to all adults by April 19th? Thats amazing..... and next week.
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