Guys, I think that it is time to read more about B117

[haapai]

If you are anything like me, the B117 variant started making news right before the holidays and you may have been too busy to read much or think much about it.  Plus there wasn't much to read.  I'm not too ashamed to admit that I initially suspected that the UK had simply let their Covid-19 cases get out of control and were using some very scant data regarding the B117 variant as political cover for an unpopular lockdown. 

I was wrong.  B117 is very scary and there is more to read now. 

Here's a taste from an article by Ezra Kline in today's NYT 

I hope, in the end, that this article reads as alarmism. I hope that a year from now it’s a piece people point to as an overreaction. I hope.

Coronavirus cases are falling. Vaccination numbers are rising. We are already jabbing more than a million people a day, which means President Biden’s initial goal of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days was far too conservative. In California, where I live, Governor Gavin Newsom lifted the statewide stay-at-home order. It feels like dawn is breaking.

And that is what makes this moment dangerous. The B.1.1.7 variant of coronavirus, first seen in Britain, and now spreading throughout Europe, appears to be 30 to 70 percent more contagious, and it may be more lethal, too. It hit Britain like a truck, sending daily confirmed deaths per million people from about six per million in early December to more than 18 per million today. The situation in Portugal is even more dire. Daily confirmed deaths have shot from about seven deaths per million in early December, to more than 24 per million now. Denmark is doing genomic sequencing of every positive coronavirus case, and it says cases involving the new variant are growing by 70 percent each week.

For what it is worth, my state currently has an estimated R(0) of .93.  A variant that is 50% more infectious would have and R(0) of 1.39 which is higher than I have seen anywhere in the US in the last three months.  A variant that is 70% more infectious would have an R(0) of 1.58.  I don't think a rate that high has ever been seen in a US state since we started doing adequate testing. 

The article also contains a link to a Washington Post article from a week ago that describes the Danish sequencing efforts and results.  I thought that the most chilling part of the article was this bit. 

Danish public health officials say that if it weren’t for their extensive monitoring, they would be feeling a false sense of confidence right now. Overall, new daily confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Denmark have been dropping for a month.

“Without this variant, we would be in really good shape,” said Camilla Holten Moller, the co-leader of the State Serum Institute group modeling the spread of the virus.

“If you just look at the reproduction number, you just wouldn’t see that it was in growth underneath at all,” she said.

The analogies that the Danish researchers use to describe the current situation and exponential growth are remarkable.

“This period is going to be a bit like a tsunami, in the way you stand on the beach and then suddenly you can see all the water retracts,” as cases drop, Krause said. “Afterward, you will have the tsunami coming in and overwhelming you.”


In a long Facebook post this month, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told people to imagine sitting in the top row of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a soccer arena with a capacity of 38,000 people. A dripping tap is filling it up, one drop the first minute, two drops the second, four drops the third. At that rate, Frederiksen said, the park will be filled in 44 minutes. But it will seem almost empty for the first 42 minutes, she said.

“The point is, you only realize that the water has risen when it’s almost too late,” she wrote.

I know that I'm sounding a bit alarmist, but I feel compelled to point out these articles and I recommend reading them.  We're really in a tricky situation right now. 

[haapai]

FWIW Michael Osterholm's weekly update  today also spoke extensively about the B.1.1.7 variant.  I found the podcast unusually disorganized and digressive and was disappointed that he did not discuss the South African and Brazilian variants in any depth.  In his defense, the podcast was probably recorded yesterday or earlier. 

I'm not trying to scare the hell out of you guys as much as I am trying to prepare you.  It is always easier to understand and accept what is going on if you have been keeping up. 

[Tiny]

I bumped into 'chatter' in the news/etc... about the different variants last week or the week before. (I was looking to see how the regular old flu was doing...)
The reports about B1117 is distressing (if it is more contagious or more deadly or effects a wider group of people adversely) - and I suspect a Red Flag.

If my family is any indication of the greater populace - "Covid19 doesn't matter all that much - it's only effecting people in nursing homes and they are old and nearly dead anyway." A Covid19 variant being more contagious is no big deal.

In that vein: I think right now America is all about "if we just get everyone vaccinated - COVID19 will "go away" or become like other deadly viruses - with deaths few and far between so no one really cares (well, unless your loved one dies). "

I think the hope that the vaccine will make everything ok is what's dampening much of the news about the variants.

The original Covid19 was pretty catchy... having a more contagious version scares me.
Because the first hand personal "experiences" with Covid19 of people I know is kind of super scary. Yeah, they survived and everything is ok - but their words and feelings about how scary it was while they were sick and felt like they couldn't breathe for a few days to a week and then the recovery over a couple of weeks is frightening. And I have to say - a bout of Covid19 that's MORE than a "I didn't feel all that great for a couple of days and then it was gone" doesn't sound anything at ALL like the Flu. It sounds more like pneumonia than the flu.. And THAT scares me.   

In my real life - I don't ever remember so many people with ugly stories about how sick they were or how sucky the recovery was from the flu - that all happened in the same year.    
I hope there aren't any long term effects of having had a solid bout of Covid 19 (that didn't have you wind up in the hospital) .

[haapai]

Please pay attention to the variant chatter.  Even better, take some time to seek out and read things that are a bit more substantial than "chatter".

The worst thing about the variants is that B.1.1.7 may not be the worst of the lot.  It's definitely more transmissible and probably more severe than the wild-type Covid-19 but we have evidence that both the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccines and prior inefections with wild-type Covid-19 confer significant immunity or resistance against it.  There are indications that the same is not true of the South African and Brazilian variants. 

Deja vu, anyone?  This feels a lot like where we were last January. 

[djAdvocate]

I should probably be more worried than I am.
I am predicting that the vaccine will stay ahead of the disease. I could be wrong, of course.

[pulmonarymd]

Jan 29, 2021 15:23:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

I should probably be more worried than I am.
I am predicting that the vaccine will stay ahead of the disease. I could be wrong, of course.

I think we are ok even with these variants. The vaccines will still have significant effectiveness, and as people are vaccinated, cases should slow. May just not slow as fast as we wish

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Viruses mutate in response to environmental pressure, so by not controlling the spread, we have pretty much written up a game plan for mutation.

Secondly, viruses are going to mutate to protect themselves.  So while a virus may mutate to promote how contagious it is, mutating to become more pathogenic isn’t in its best interest.  This is largely why Ebola has flares and dies out.....because it kills too many, too fast and the disease does not promote spread to those who are not a direct contact (I think of bodily fluid).  

Finally, none of the vaccines we have produce an immune response to a single epitope to the virus.  Even if you have a vaccine to a single protein, an epitope (the site that an antibody binds) are varied.  You can produce dozens of different types of antibodies to different epitopes on a single protein.  So any vaccine is ALWAYS going to produce partial immunity.  Considering that anything is better than 0, then worrying about variants is pretty much useless other than for all those who are tracking changes.

FWIW.....the ONLY thing a variant MAY have an impact upon  is Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody.  A monoclonal antibody is defined as a single antibody produced by a single type of cell to a single epitope.  So depending on where the mutation is, and the epitope (which is a specific amino acid sequence), it might not work.  Last I read, there was a 2 amino acid change in a protein that is comprised of 177 amino acids.  What is the likelihood that the mutation is where the Mab binds?  I don’t know.  I’m sure Regeneron does, and I’m pretty sure that they have other clones in the freezer that produce antibody to other epitopes, because when you make them, you usually get many clones that produce.  

[pulmonarymd]

To hop on what walk said. The protein we are talking about is how the virus enters cells. Think of a lock and a key. If the key changes too much, it doesn’t work. So this virus can mutate only do much. The vaccine elicits antibodies against this protein. We will develop antibodies against multiple sites on this protein. So, even if it mutates, since some regions need to be stable(or it will not be infectious) some protection will still be there. Right now, any protection gets us on the way to ending this.

The goal until we had a vaccine was to limit spread. We didn’t do it. The virus has had many opportunities to do so. We have very little options to control this now. A vaccine or a severe lockdown. Short term will continue to be ugly. And it is our fault

[djAdvocate]

I just had a curious thought.

can the vaccine mutate? or is it just one uniform thing?

[pulmonarymd]

Jan 30, 2021 20:05:11 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

I just had a curious thought.

can the vaccine mutate? or is it just one uniform thing?

Vaccine is not alive. They would need to swap out one piece of mRNA for another. Should be relatively easy. One of the marvels of the technology. They would just need to test it , then manufacture it

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Jan 30, 2021 20:05:11 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

I just had a curious thought.

can the vaccine mutate? or is it just one uniform thing?

No, the vaccine is not alive.  It cannot mutate.

[thyme4change]

The idea that the first two vaccines were in the 90+% spaces did give me hope that everything would be going back to normal - maybe a few modifications- more working at home, less "toughing it out" when you are sick, school keeping the zoom cameras going in case a kid has to miss class, and masks not being super weird and maybe even normal in some places (I hope we wear masks on planes forever - they are flying pitre dishes!) If we eradicated polio, why not Covid? (Besides the fact that mandatory vaccines is now a political impossibility.)

Having the J&J vaccine be more like 70-whatever-percent effective makes me think we will still go back to a modified normal - but with worse consequences. If we get Covid deaths down to a steady 50k per year, we can give it the same treatment we do the flu.

[pulmonarymd]

With time, deaths and infections should gradually drop from that level. We will find treatments, the vaccine is more effective than for influenza, and unlike influenza, it is a single virus instead of a family of viruses. Long term, we will learn to “live with it.”!but I think that will not be as bad as you laid out. I am pessimistic short term, but optimistic long term. Look at what we did with hiv. Throw enough resources at something like an infectious disease, and science and medicine can do amazing things. These are more easily understandable problems. Viruses are simple entities, easier to understand. They just have the ability to cause havoc

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Jan 31, 2021 10:43:19 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

The idea that the first two vaccines were in the 90+% spaces did give me hope that everything would be going back to normal - maybe a few modifications- more working at home, less "toughing it out" when you are sick, school keeping the zoom cameras going in case a kid has to miss class, and masks not being super weird and maybe even normal in some places (I hope we wear masks on planes forever - they are flying pitre dishes!) If we eradicated polio, why not Covid? (Besides the fact that mandatory vaccines is now a political impossibility.)

Having the J&J vaccine be more like 70-whatever-percent effective makes me think we will still go back to a modified normal - but with worse consequences. If we get Covid deaths down to a steady 50k per year, we can give it the same treatment we do the flu.

Once you get the bulk of the population immunized, the likelihood of running into the virus decreases.  Worrying about the 72% effectiveness really becomes a non issue.  When you are less likely to encounter the virus, this is an additive game.  72% less likely to get disease, 85% less likely to get severe disease, 5%-80% (depending upon percent of population......the number is low now because only about 5% max of the population is immunized, as more people get immunized, the number increases) less likely to encounter the virus altogether.  Not only that, once you stop the spread, you stop the environmental pressure to mutate.

All of these have a place in stopping this virus. 

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Jan 31, 2021 10:43:19 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

The idea that the first two vaccines were in the 90+% spaces did give me hope that everything would be going back to normal - maybe a few modifications- more working at home, less "toughing it out" when you are sick, school keeping the zoom cameras going in case a kid has to miss class, and masks not being super weird and maybe even normal in some places (I hope we wear masks on planes forever - they are flying pitre dishes!) If we eradicated polio, why not Covid? (Besides the fact that mandatory vaccines is now a political impossibility.)

Having the J&J vaccine be more like 70-whatever-percent effective makes me think we will still go back to a modified normal - but with worse consequences. If we get Covid deaths down to a steady 50k per year, we can give it the same treatment we do the flu.

In a good year, less than 50% get vaccinated against the flu.  Comparing COVID to the flu is not a great analogy.  

If >85% of the population is immunized against the flu, then those deaths would be considerably less.  Right now, we are getting slightly more people willing to be vaccinated for COVID.....about 60%.  Since COVID has numbers that are considerably higher than flu for mortality, we are not going to get there.

[thyme4change]

Jan 31, 2021 11:30:28 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Jan 31, 2021 10:43:19 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

The idea that the first two vaccines were in the 90+% spaces did give me hope that everything would be going back to normal - maybe a few modifications- more working at home, less "toughing it out" when you are sick, school keeping the zoom cameras going in case a kid has to miss class, and masks not being super weird and maybe even normal in some places (I hope we wear masks on planes forever - they are flying pitre dishes!) If we eradicated polio, why not Covid? (Besides the fact that mandatory vaccines is now a political impossibility.)

Having the J&J vaccine be more like 70-whatever-percent effective makes me think we will still go back to a modified normal - but with worse consequences. If we get Covid deaths down to a steady 50k per year, we can give it the same treatment we do the flu.

In a good year, less than 50% get vaccinated against the flu.  Comparing COVID to the flu is not a great analogy.  

If >85% of the population is immunized against the flu, then those deaths would be considerably less.  Right now, we are getting slightly more people willing to be vaccinated for COVID.....about 60%.  Since COVID has numbers that are considerably higher than flu for mortality, we are not going to get there.

I think it is a great comparison. If we have to get a Covid shot every year because immunity doesn't last, some won't vaccinate, and the virus continues to mutate, then after a few years, 50% of people will get vaccinated and the others will give a garden variety of excuses. We may get 85% this year, but once it is no longer the major news story all day every day, we won't be able to repeat that.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 31, 2021 11:14:22 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

With time, deaths and infections should gradually drop from that level. We will find treatments, the vaccine is more effective than for influenza, and unlike influenza, it is a single virus instead of a family of viruses. Long term, we will learn to “live with it.”!but I think that will not be as bad as you laid out. I am pessimistic short term, but optimistic long term. Look at what we did with hiv. Throw enough resources at something like an infectious disease, and science and medicine can do amazing things. These are more easily understandable problems. Viruses are simple entities, easier to understand. They just have the ability to cause havoc

actually, you needn't cite a distant relative for examples, here.

think of the Spanish Flu. most of us didn't even read about it in history class. it is so remote to our current lives that until this virus hit, nobody discussed it AT ALL.  I am sure that in 1930, shortly after the vaccine was developed (yes, it took 10 years), they were STILL talking about it. but my parents never did. so, they had no fear of it. and that is one of the nice side effects of the vaccine. we stop worrying about it. it becomes the new normal.

I am very optimistic that within (5) years, other than the knowledge impact it had on us (remember, it is going to kill half a million+, and not a few of them had important jobs, knowledge, or skills) in the intermediate term, we will have very little visible impact from the virus.

the US is a stubborn bunch.  they like their BBQ, guns, fast cars.  we don't give them up because they are dangerous, even if we should.  we will find a new normal here, even if it is not the best new normal to have.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 31, 2021 11:30:28 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Jan 31, 2021 10:43:19 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

The idea that the first two vaccines were in the 90+% spaces did give me hope that everything would be going back to normal - maybe a few modifications- more working at home, less "toughing it out" when you are sick, school keeping the zoom cameras going in case a kid has to miss class, and masks not being super weird and maybe even normal in some places (I hope we wear masks on planes forever - they are flying pitre dishes!) If we eradicated polio, why not Covid? (Besides the fact that mandatory vaccines is now a political impossibility.)

Having the J&J vaccine be more like 70-whatever-percent effective makes me think we will still go back to a modified normal - but with worse consequences. If we get Covid deaths down to a steady 50k per year, we can give it the same treatment we do the flu.

In a good year, less than 50% get vaccinated against the flu.  Comparing COVID to the flu is not a great analogy.  

If >85% of the population is immunized against the flu, then those deaths would be considerably less.  Right now, we are getting slightly more people willing to be vaccinated for COVID.....about 60%.  Since COVID has numbers that are considerably higher than flu for mortality, we are not going to get there.

but don't forget, we have somewhere between 27 and 140M people already infected, here.  presumably, that is the same as getting a vaccine for THEM.  that means that we don't need to vaccinate 85%.  we only need to vaccinate 43-75%.  by the time the virus has run it's course, it could very well be down to 50%.  that, and this is not just another flu.

I think we will get there.  this year.

[pulmonarymd]

Feb 1, 2021 17:13:58 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 31, 2021 11:30:28 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

In a good year, less than 50% get vaccinated against the flu.  Comparing COVID to the flu is not a great analogy.  

If >85% of the population is immunized against the flu, then those deaths would be considerably less.  Right now, we are getting slightly more people willing to be vaccinated for COVID.....about 60%.  Since COVID has numbers that are considerably higher than flu for mortality, we are not going to get there.

but don't forget, we have somewhere between 27 and 140M people already infected, here.  presumably, that is the same as getting a vaccine for THEM.  that means that we don't need to vaccinate 85%.  we only need to vaccinate 43-75%.  by the time the virus has run it's course, it could very well be down to 50%.  that, and this is not just another flu.

I think we will get there.  this year.

I agree with almost everything you wrote in the above 2 posts, except for the timing. These variants will slow our progress, and delay the time frame. How much isn’t known due to insufficient information such as how well the vaccines and natural immunity work against them.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 1, 2021 17:31:09 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Feb 1, 2021 17:13:58 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

but don't forget, we have somewhere between 27 and 140M people already infected, here.  presumably, that is the same as getting a vaccine for THEM.  that means that we don't need to vaccinate 85%.  we only need to vaccinate 43-75%.  by the time the virus has run it's course, it could very well be down to 50%.  that, and this is not just another flu.

I think we will get there.  this year.

I agree with almost everything you wrote in the above 2 posts, except for the timing. These variants will slow our progress, and delay the time frame. How much isn’t known due to insufficient information such as how well the vaccines and natural immunity work against them.

have you read about "vaccine nationalism"?  it is predictable, but kind of unethical and unnerving.  because the vaccines are developed in the West, if you are not part of the EU and the US, you are not going to get vaccinated this year.  at least that is the prediction.

what are your thoughts and feelings on this subject?

[pulmonarymd]

Feb 1, 2021 20:27:16 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Feb 1, 2021 17:31:09 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

I agree with almost everything you wrote in the above 2 posts, except for the timing. These variants will slow our progress, and delay the time frame. How much isn’t known due to insufficient information such as how well the vaccines and natural immunity work against them.

have you read about "vaccine nationalism"?  it is predictable, but kind of unethical and unnerving.  because the vaccines are developed in the West, if you are not part of the EU and the US, you are not going to get vaccinated this year.  at least that is the prediction.

what are your thoughts and feelings on this subject?

Typical for us to do something like this. The pandemic doesn’t end, and life doesn’t return to normal until it is controlled everywhere. So not only is it unethical, it is shortsighted. Practical considerations, such as storage capacity, does factor into how to distribute it. But we should fairly distribute the resources. But we won’t, because it would mess as n given it to black and brown people

[Tiny]

Well, it looks like it's B117 is here and making news...


A concerning variant is about to become dominant in the US, experts say, and how Americans act could help fuel or curb a surge

www.cnn.com/2021/03/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

Research published last week suggested that the variant was associated with an estimated 64% higher risk of dying from Covid-19.

Researchers have said current vaccines generally offer good protection against the B.1.1.7 variant.

But it's spring break and lots of states are "opening up" and people are getting vaccinated (and mask/social distancing is dropping)...

I'm not sure how to predict what's going to happen in the next 6 weeks. Lots of the 65 and older crowd are vaccinated (or will be in another 3 to 4 weeks).

I know the variant is more contagious - so I'm guessing it will be the under 65 crowd and kids that will bear the brunt of it. I guess it will come down to how many of under 65 crowd had asymptomatic or very mild cases of Covid19 (I suspect a majority of the 30 and under crowd have had a brush with Covid 19.)  All of my younger (under 40) relatives either had it (or lived in a house with someone who had it but had no symptoms or not enough to be bothered by it).  If my relatives are "typical" (as in Covid19? meh so what) - then I'm gonna go out on a limb and say most young families (the 40 and under crowd) have already had Covid19.    

I guess it's gonna come down to if you can catch Covid19 a second time - and if it's worse the second time around... 
 
What do you all think will happen?

[djAdvocate]

Feb 1, 2021 20:50:15 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Feb 1, 2021 20:27:16 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

have you read about "vaccine nationalism"?  it is predictable, but kind of unethical and unnerving.  because the vaccines are developed in the West, if you are not part of the EU and the US, you are not going to get vaccinated this year.  at least that is the prediction.

what are your thoughts and feelings on this subject?

Typical for us to do something like this. The pandemic doesn’t end, and life doesn’t return to normal until it is controlled everywhere. So not only is it unethical, it is shortsighted. Practical considerations, such as storage capacity, does factor into how to distribute it. But we should fairly distribute the resources. But we won’t, because it would mess as n given it to black and brown people

Biden said something very telling and hopeful at the end of his recent press conference following the passage of the $1.9T relief bill.  he said that any excess vaccine will be sent to places that need it.  that is the first I have heard about that, but it is very hopeful for solving this problem in the intermediate to long term.

[busymom]

It's already been proven that some people HAVE caught the virus more than once.  If this variant is as easy to pass along as stated, I wonder how many might catch it a 2nd time, and perhaps the second time end up a fatality?  

[pulmonarymd]

I think there is one more smaller spike to occur this spring.  I think that due to the premature(IMHO) opening and the variants. According to the British, this variant is twice as deadly, so it may have more of an impact than otherwise. The determinants of how bad it is going to be will depend on how fast we vaccinate, who we vaccinate, how many "at risk" people refuse vaccination, and our behavior. My hospital went from 1 COVID patient to 7 overnight. And we haven't really opened, and we are near the top of the list as far as vaccinations go. We are nearing the "end" but we have not gotten there yet, and I am afraid we are celebrating to soon. Waiting another 4-6 weeks to open things up and remaining cautious would make a huge difference.

[haapai]

I'm frustrated.  I live in Michigan and our seven-day average of  new cases is up 63% from where it was two weeks ago.  Hospitalizations are up 17% by the same parameters.  Deaths are still decreasing.  I'm glomming data from the NYT's tracker.  I love the downward trend in new deaths but I'm not loving how our state is being reported as a place where cases are high and staying high.  Our cases are high and increasing and I don't know why we're being classified as holding the line. 

I don't know why our cases are increasing or who is getting tested.  I know that schools ar opening up to in-person classes and that indoor dining has returned with some restrictions.  I know that opening up like that is going to drive cases up but I'm also not hearing a damn thing regarding the results of sequencing positive COVID tests. 

The math here is wicked.  (The sum of a downward trending line and the exponential increase from virtual nothing is nasty to deal with. It turns very suddenly.)  What's being reported regarding variant testing is opaque and late.  I fear that my state may be a bit of a canary in a coal mine. 

Interestingly, when you look at list of how hard states are getting hit with new cases now (adjusted for population), it looks an awful lot like where states ranked a year ago. 

[djAdvocate]

Mar 16, 2021 17:06:10 GMT -5 busymom said:

It's already been proven that some people HAVE caught the virus more than once.  If this variant is as easy to pass along as stated, I wonder how many might catch it a 2nd time, and perhaps the second time end up a fatality?  

based on my current understanding- none.

but sure, it is possible that somebody with

a weak heart won't make it a second round, or something.

I think such cases will be rare.

[Opti]

Mar 16, 2021 19:45:52 GMT -5 haapai said:

I'm frustrated.  I live in Michigan and our seven-day average of  new cases is up 63% from where it was two weeks ago.  Hospitalizations are up 17% by the same parameters.  Deaths are still decreasing.  I'm glomming data from the NYT's tracker.  I love the downward trend in new deaths but I'm not loving how our state is being reported as a place where cases are high and staying high.  Our cases are high and increasing and I don't know why we're being classified as holding the line. 

I don't know why our cases are increasing or who is getting tested.  I know that schools ar opening up to in-person classes and that indoor dining has returned with some restrictions.  I know that opening up like that is going to drive cases up but I'm also not hearing a damn thing regarding the results of sequencing positive COVID tests. 

The math here is wicked.  (The sum of a downward trending line and the exponential increase from virtual nothing is nasty to deal with. It turns very suddenly.)  What's being reported regarding variant testing is opaque and late.  I fear that my state may be a bit of a canary in a coal mine. 

Interestingly, when you look at list of how hard states are getting hit with new cases now (adjusted for population), it looks an awful lot like where states ranked a year ago. 

If you want to feel better look at NJ and NY. Both are on the leaderboard daily for new cases. I think overall the death rate has decreased, but holding around 50K new cases daily is concerning. Sure its far better than the 150K per day it was, but it would make me feel like things were improving if that number would start dropping to 40K per day, 30K per day and keep going down. I think its more likely to start ticking up in the states that have dropped mask mandates and other restrictions prematurely. 

I would love to return to normal, but hitting 30 Million cases in the US of Covid is not a victory. I wonder what the count will be at the end of the year and by May 1st.

[djAdvocate]

I don't think the case rate is going to improve for a while, but I expect the death rate to continue declining.

this is actually happening GLOBALLY. because we disproportionately share the case and death count, what happens here tends to correlate to the global trend.

Brazil is worrisome. new records in cases and deaths.

[Spellbound454]

This is the predominant variant we have.... and although its more infectious, the vaccines have good protection against it.  

There are other variations in Brazil and SA that the vaccine may not work as well against... but they are tweaking the existing vaccine for a booster later in the year.