So. Reckon even one governor is willing to call BS

[pulmonarymd]

Jun 30, 2020 15:47:40 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

I don't see another shutdown in AZ's near future. AZ started another month-long pause. I hope it helps, but due to the lag-time, I doubt it will make a significant difference.  And yay, Pence is coming by to visit us tomorrow.  

Virus infection rate is too high for half measures to work. This thing is a beast. Bending the curve takes a significant intervention. As I said, the infection rate plateaued for a long time up here, even with a significant shut down. You are likely looking at weeks of 2000+ infections a day. Deaths will follow soon enough, and they will stay stubbornly high for quite a while. That has been the experience everywhere that was hit with geometric growth. Hope I am wrong, but the wheels are already in motion, and you cannot affect the progression over the next 2 weeks in any significant fashion. Those infections are already baked in. Wish our president and your governor actually were willing to take advice from scientists/physicians.

On a side note, The Health Director in MS was on NPR this morning. They are in a similar boat, hit 1000 cases/day. At times they have only single digit number of ICU beds in Jackson. They are also going to be in trouble soon. It seems we all need to learn the lessons of this the hard way.

[mary2029]

Ahhh... it's good to know that you are "paying attention."  We were under the same basic restrictions as the northeast (although more lenient) including gym closures since end of March. Here is a link to all the shut downs that AZ has had.  
 

www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php?utm_source=google_grant&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=covid19&utm_term=covid#novel-coronavirus-home


As for the Native American casinos, they are not governed under AZ laws. 

[pulmonarymd]

Jun 30, 2020 16:13:34 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

Ahhh... it's good to know that you are "paying attention."  We were under the same basic restrictions as the northeast (although more lenient) including gym closures since end of March. Here is a link to all the shut downs that AZ has had.  
 

www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php?utm_source=google_grant&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=covid19&utm_term=covid#novel-coronavirus-home


As for the Native American casinos, they are not governed under AZ laws. 

In the NE, everything was shut down. Gyms, hair and nail salons, restaurants were takeout only, theaters, movies, even the Indian Casinos. Masks have been mandatory since early April. Phase 1 of reopening started in late May, outdoor dining only with little else open. Phase 2 started only 2 weeks ago, indoor dining at 50% capacity, haircuts, nail salons, movies allowed to open. Casinos did not open until early June. Have had limits on capacity at state parks, most closing early due to that. Masks still mandatory. Think our restrictions were stronger, and still are stronger than yours.

[chiver78]

Jun 30, 2020 16:25:46 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jun 30, 2020 16:13:34 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

Ahhh... it's good to know that you are "paying attention."  We were under the same basic restrictions as the northeast (although more lenient) including gym closures since end of March. Here is a link to all the shut downs that AZ has had.  
 

www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php?utm_source=google_grant&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=covid19&utm_term=covid#novel-coronavirus-home


As for the Native American casinos, they are not governed under AZ laws. 

In the NE, everything was shut down. Gyms, hair and nail salons, restaurants were takeout only, theaters, movies, even the Indian Casinos. Masks have been mandatory since early April. Phase 1 of reopening started in late May, outdoor dining only with little else open. Phase 2 started only 2 weeks ago, indoor dining at 50% capacity, haircuts, nail salons, movies allowed to open. Casinos did not open until early June. Have had limits on capacity at state parks, most closing early due to that. Masks still mandatory. Think our restrictions were stronger, and still are stronger than yours.

this. I'm in MA, we shut everything down around St Patrick's Day, only just opening up "phase 1" stuff at the end of May. I guarantee that you had way more lenient restrictions than I had here, just based on the daily conversations I had with him about what he did that day. 

Indian casinos may have been exempt from the restrictions, but AZ has non-Indian casinos. my friend lives in Chandler, I can't remember what town the casino was that he was checking in from, but it was north of there. 

[mary2029]

Jun 30, 2020 16:25:46 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jun 30, 2020 16:13:34 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

Ahhh... it's good to know that you are "paying attention."  We were under the same basic restrictions as the northeast (although more lenient) including gym closures since end of March. Here is a link to all the shut downs that AZ has had.  
 

www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php?utm_source=google_grant&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=covid19&utm_term=covid#novel-coronavirus-home


As for the Native American casinos, they are not governed under AZ laws. 

In the NE, everything was shut down. Gyms, hair and nail salons, restaurants were takeout only, theaters, movies, even the Indian Casinos. Masks have been mandatory since early April. Phase 1 of reopening started in late May, outdoor dining only with little else open. Phase 2 started only 2 weeks ago, indoor dining at 50% capacity, haircuts, nail salons, movies allowed to open. Casinos did not open until early June. Have had limits on capacity at state parks, most closing early due to that. Masks still mandatory. Think our restrictions were stronger, and still are stronger than yours.

Yes your restrictions were stronger than AZ's.  No doubt. But we were still shut down and we were successful at keeping the virus at bay during that time. When the state opened again in mid-May, there were no restrictions in place. Now, due to those 6 weeks of lack of restrictions, we are pausing again (no gyms, no movies, no water parks, etc.).  Individual counties and cities have had to take leadership due to the Republican governor's desire to please Trump. 

[mary2029]

I guarantee that you had way more lenient restrictions than I had here, just based on the daily conversations I had with him about what he did that day.

Ahhh... that statement is significantly different than Arizona wasn't closed.  

If you are talking about Casino Arizona in Scottsdale, that is on an Indian reservation.

 

[pulmonarymd]

Jun 30, 2020 16:36:55 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

Jun 30, 2020 16:25:46 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

In the NE, everything was shut down. Gyms, hair and nail salons, restaurants were takeout only, theaters, movies, even the Indian Casinos. Masks have been mandatory since early April. Phase 1 of reopening started in late May, outdoor dining only with little else open. Phase 2 started only 2 weeks ago, indoor dining at 50% capacity, haircuts, nail salons, movies allowed to open. Casinos did not open until early June. Have had limits on capacity at state parks, most closing early due to that. Masks still mandatory. Think our restrictions were stronger, and still are stronger than yours.

Yes your restrictions were stronger than AZ's.  No doubt. But we were still shut down and we were successful at keeping the virus at bay during that time. When the state opened again in mid-May, there were no restrictions in place. Now, due to those 6 weeks of lack of restrictions, we are pausing again (no gyms, no movies, no water parks, etc.).  Individual counties and cities have had to take leadership due to the Republican governor's desire to please Trump. 

Unfortunately, you did not listen to the science or the models. You were always predicted to peak later than we were, and you opened before your predicted peak, and are now paying the price. Nobody is going to be successful with this because we have no national strategy, and the virus does not respect borders. Only comparison is who didn't do as bad.

All of this dates back to the early days. We did not take it seriously at a national level. We are still paying for the testing disaster. If we could have been testing early on, we would have had a better picture of the extent of infection in the country. Hard hit areas such as Wa and the NE, needed to shut down hard and early. But, other areas could have taken a wait and see approach if their infection rate was low or negligible, shutting down progressively of harder when the numbers ramped up. That would have allowed for a more rolling shutdown. 2 beneficial benefits of that: the economic carnage may have been ameliorated, and people would not have been as tired of the shutdown, because they would not have been in it unnecessarily. Too late now. But this is where competent leadership at the national level would have prevented this from being the disaster that it has and will be. We are all paying for it now. The more widespread this wave is, the easier it will be for the virus to ramp up quickly, potentially leading to a major nationwide wave come late fall and winter. This is what the medical establishment has been trying to get across. Too many of our leaders and people do not want to hear it, so herd immunity here we come.

[mary2029]

To get the record straight and then I'll stop writing, Arizona had its 1st case of Covid on Jan. 26th, way before New York's 1st case on March 1. While AZ was predicted to peak later, that was because we had shut down quickly (at the same time as the northeast) and kept our curve flat because we were listening to science, the doctors, and Washington and New York dominated the news. I don't pay attention to the national or state news on Covid anymore due to the inconsistent messages or lack thereof any message. I am sure I am not the only one who ignores the news and goes to the Covid data/graphs websites directly. 

Hindsight is always 20-20.  Could we have waited a while to shut down?  Yes. Could we have shut our borders to northeasterner's who brought in a significant amount of cases?  Yes.  AZ was more relaxed during its shut down because we could be.  Now, we shouldn't be so relaxed, which is why we are in another month-long pause/shut down. 

The nation as a whole was always headed for herd immunity; we were only trying to flatten the curve to relieve too many people at one time in the hospitals. New York recovered cases are only at 21% and new cases are still being reported daily. 

[pulmonarymd]

Jun 30, 2020 17:27:24 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

To get the record straight and then I'll stop writing, Arizona had its 1st case of Covid on Jan. 26th, way before New York's 1st case on March 1. While AZ was predicted to peak later, that was because we had shut down quickly (at the same time as the northeast) and kept our curve flat because we were listening to science, the doctors, and Washington and New York dominated the news. I don't pay attention to the national or state news on Covid anymore due to the inconsistent messages or lack thereof any message. I am sure I am not the only one who ignores the news and goes to the Covid data/graphs websites directly. 

Hindsight is always 20-20.  Could we have waited a while to shut down?  Yes. Could we have shut our borders to northeasterner's who brought in a significant amount of cases?  Yes.  AZ was more relaxed during its shut down because we could be.  Now, we shouldn't be so relaxed, which is why we are in another month-long pause/shut down. 

The nation as a whole was always headed for herd immunity; we were only trying to flatten the curve to relieve too many people at one time in the hospitals. New York recovered cases are only at 21% and new cases are still being reported daily. 

Herd immunity will take 3 years. The goal has been to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, and to buy time to find effective treatment, while at the same time trying to find out a level of openness that will allow a life. Europe seems to have figured that out. We either can’t or won’t. Nobody d sad hound declare victory. Since your governor has his head up trumps ass, and will not do what needs to be done, you will be facing a continuing outbreak. No one has been able to bring about control of this pandemic with half measures such as AZ is trying. I am skeptical that it will work. The message from the governors has been fairly consistent. Science usually is

[chiver78]

Jun 30, 2020 16:40:14 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

I guarantee that you had way more lenient restrictions than I had here, just based on the daily conversations I had with him about what he did that day.

Ahhh... that statement is significantly different than Arizona wasn't closed.  

If you are talking about Casino Arizona in Scottsdale, that is on an Indian reservation.

 

if you were still moving about for things other than essentials, then no, you weren't shut down. since you seem to be intentionally obtuse about this, i'll just stop here. have a nice night.

[teen persuasion]

Jun 30, 2020 17:27:24 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

To get the record straight and then I'll stop writing, Arizona had its 1st case of Covid on Jan. 26th, way before New York's 1st case on March 1. While AZ was predicted to peak later, that was because we had shut down quickly (at the same time as the northeast) and kept our curve flat because we were listening to science, the doctors, and Washington and New York dominated the news. I don't pay attention to the national or state news on Covid anymore due to the inconsistent messages or lack thereof any message. I am sure I am not the only one who ignores the news and goes to the Covid data/graphs websites directly. 

Hindsight is always 20-20.  Could we have waited a while to shut down?  Yes. Could we have shut our borders to northeasterner's who brought in a significant amount of cases?  Yes.  AZ was more relaxed during its shut down because we could be.  Now, we shouldn't be so relaxed, which is why we are in another month-long pause/shut down. 

The nation as a whole was always headed for herd immunity; we were only trying to flatten the curve to relieve too many people at one time in the hospitals. New York recovered cases are only at 21% and new cases are still being reported daily. 

Curious what you mean by NY's recovered cases - if you actually mean recovered as in had Covid-19 and didn't die and are now well, umm most counties are not tracking recovered numbers - it's just too difficult where the outbreaks were bad.  My county has been tracking it, so you know active case numbers, which are low.  The bigger metro area south of me, however, quit tracking recovered numbers after a few weeks.  Their reported data contains those early totals, but haven't changed since, so it looks like nobody has recovered since then. Not true - they just aren't tracking that number anymore.


Now if instead you are talking about how many in NY have had Covid, the antibody tests suggest 16% of the state population overall, but lower Upstate than Downstate. That county south of me had a 6% rate. Other areas lightly hit are 1-3%. We are a long way from herd immunity levels, and if we can keep new cases low, we won't get much closer to herd immunity any time soon.

[Lizard Queen]

Jun 30, 2020 17:27:24 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

To get the record straight and then I'll stop writing, Arizona had its 1st case of Covid on Jan. 26th, way before New York's 1st case on March 1. While AZ was predicted to peak later, that was because we had shut down quickly (at the same time as the northeast) and kept our curve flat because we were listening to science, the doctors, and Washington and New York dominated the news. I don't pay attention to the national or state news on Covid anymore due to the inconsistent messages or lack thereof any message. I am sure I am not the only one who ignores the news and goes to the Covid data/graphs websites directly. 

Hindsight is always 20-20.  Could we have waited a while to shut down?  Yes. Could we have shut our borders to northeasterner's who brought in a significant amount of cases?  Yes.  AZ was more relaxed during its shut down because we could be.  Now, we shouldn't be so relaxed, which is why we are in another month-long pause/shut down. 

The nation as a whole was always headed for herd immunity; we were only trying to flatten the curve to relieve too many people at one time in the hospitals. New York recovered cases are only at 21% and new cases are still being reported daily. 

I've been reading covid19 threads on city-data, going up to 1000's of pages. I specifically remember a poster from AZ complaining about the stupidity of the shutdowns over the virus, and gleefully explaining how no one was social distancing or taking any precautions in his neck of AZ (some tourist place with a lake? I can't remember off the top of my head, and this is literally going back 100's of pages). He's been absent from that thread ever since the shit started hitting the fan in AZ.

[thyme4change]

Jul 1, 2020 11:34:49 GMT -5 Lizard Queen said:

Jun 30, 2020 17:27:24 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

To get the record straight and then I'll stop writing, Arizona had its 1st case of Covid on Jan. 26th, way before New York's 1st case on March 1. While AZ was predicted to peak later, that was because we had shut down quickly (at the same time as the northeast) and kept our curve flat because we were listening to science, the doctors, and Washington and New York dominated the news. I don't pay attention to the national or state news on Covid anymore due to the inconsistent messages or lack thereof any message. I am sure I am not the only one who ignores the news and goes to the Covid data/graphs websites directly. 

Hindsight is always 20-20.  Could we have waited a while to shut down?  Yes. Could we have shut our borders to northeasterner's who brought in a significant amount of cases?  Yes.  AZ was more relaxed during its shut down because we could be.  Now, we shouldn't be so relaxed, which is why we are in another month-long pause/shut down. 

The nation as a whole was always headed for herd immunity; we were only trying to flatten the curve to relieve too many people at one time in the hospitals. New York recovered cases are only at 21% and new cases are still being reported daily. 

I've been reading covid19 threads on city-data, going up to 1000's of pages. I specifically remember a poster from AZ complaining about the stupidity of the shutdowns over the virus, and gleefully explaining how no one was social distancing or taking any precautions in his neck of AZ (some tourist place with a lake? I can't remember off the top of my head, and this is literally going back 100's of pages). He's been absent from that thread ever since the shit started hitting the fan in AZ.

Lake Havasu?

We have a lot of lakes. We have damned up every river. We can't have water just flowing down to Mexico or into the Ocean.

[mary2029]

Jul 1, 2020 11:34:49 GMT -5 Lizard Queen said:

Jun 30, 2020 17:27:24 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

To get the record straight and then I'll stop writing, Arizona had its 1st case of Covid on Jan. 26th, way before New York's 1st case on March 1. While AZ was predicted to peak later, that was because we had shut down quickly (at the same time as the northeast) and kept our curve flat because we were listening to science, the doctors, and Washington and New York dominated the news. I don't pay attention to the national or state news on Covid anymore due to the inconsistent messages or lack thereof any message. I am sure I am not the only one who ignores the news and goes to the Covid data/graphs websites directly. 

Hindsight is always 20-20.  Could we have waited a while to shut down?  Yes. Could we have shut our borders to northeasterner's who brought in a significant amount of cases?  Yes.  AZ was more relaxed during its shut down because we could be.  Now, we shouldn't be so relaxed, which is why we are in another month-long pause/shut down. 

The nation as a whole was always headed for herd immunity; we were only trying to flatten the curve to relieve too many people at one time in the hospitals. New York recovered cases are only at 21% and new cases are still being reported daily. 

I've been reading covid19 threads on city-data, going up to 1000's of pages. I specifically remember a poster from AZ complaining about the stupidity of the shutdowns over the virus, and gleefully explaining how no one was social distancing or taking any precautions in his neck of AZ (some tourist place with a lake? I can't remember off the top of my head, and this is literally going back 100's of pages). He's been absent from that thread ever since the shit started hitting the fan in AZ.

Yep, there are a bunch of entitled people who think that they are above the law and don't wear masks, don't social distance, or flaunt the shutdown rules (like that Tucson restaurant that Trump applauded when he came the end of March). I get why the police won't enforce the laws... why put themselves in danger when you are encountering stubborn people? Not everyone in AZ is an idiot though. It is just a shame that we were for the most part behaving and then leadership let us all free, so a good portion of people went back to their pre-Covid behaviour. We are seeing the same thing in PA now... cases are on the rise because the bars are now open.

[Lizard Queen]

Jul 1, 2020 12:19:00 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jul 1, 2020 11:34:49 GMT -5 Lizard Queen said:

I've been reading covid19 threads on city-data, going up to 1000's of pages. I specifically remember a poster from AZ complaining about the stupidity of the shutdowns over the virus, and gleefully explaining how no one was social distancing or taking any precautions in his neck of AZ (some tourist place with a lake? I can't remember off the top of my head, and this is literally going back 100's of pages). He's been absent from that thread ever since the shit started hitting the fan in AZ.

Lake Havasu?

We have a lot of lakes. We have damned up every river. We can't have water just flowing down to Mexico or into the Ocean.

I think it was. I know I recognized the name at the time, and I don't know many over there in the opposite corner of the country.

[Lizard Queen]

Jul 1, 2020 12:35:38 GMT -5 mary2029 said:

Jul 1, 2020 11:34:49 GMT -5 Lizard Queen said:

I've been reading covid19 threads on city-data, going up to 1000's of pages. I specifically remember a poster from AZ complaining about the stupidity of the shutdowns over the virus, and gleefully explaining how no one was social distancing or taking any precautions in his neck of AZ (some tourist place with a lake? I can't remember off the top of my head, and this is literally going back 100's of pages). He's been absent from that thread ever since the shit started hitting the fan in AZ.

Yep, there are a bunch of entitled people who think that they are above the law and don't wear masks, don't social distance, or flaunt the shutdown rules (like that Tucson restaurant that Trump applauded when he came the end of March). I get why the police won't enforce the laws... why put themselves in danger when you are encountering stubborn people? Not everyone in AZ is an idiot though. It is just a shame that we were for the most part behaving and then leadership let us all free, so a good portion of people went back to their pre-Covid behaviour. We are seeing the same thing in PA now... cases are on the rise because the bars are now open.

Yeah, my point was that there are nominal social distancing measures/laws/guidelines/whatever, and there is the compliance to them. I can tell you now, compliance here in west Michigan has gone down, and it was never great to start with. You can't blame our recent increases solely on protests, because this lack of compliance is happening all the time, not just specific times and places.