Mis/Perceptions on self-isolating

[Rukh O'Rorke]

So - I read a lot of the agony aunt/advice columns. Most of it is about coronavirus these days. or X-problem with coronavirus exacerbations.

Of particular focus is outrage at any partner/friend/family/coworker/employer that puts the letter writer 'at risk'. 

But unless we plan to isolate for a year or longer to starve/extinct the virus or develop effective treatment or vaccine, the goal of self-isolation is just to flatten the curve, and avoid 10% death rate as opposed to 3%.

US currently has 1,871 cases/million citizens with 47,069 recovered cases. So at best about 0.2% of US citizens have had it. Let's call it one whole percent to account for all those undiagnosed cases floating around.
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

What are these people thinking? Are they reading good news regarding treatment and vaccine development that I'm not seeing? Are they planning to stay put for a year?

What is your perception on the goals for self-isolation/sheltering in place? 

[pulmonarymd]

I do think there is necessary/unavoidable risk, and unnecessary risk. For example, I know I can potentially place someone I come in contact with at risk just by doing my job. So I am careful to limit my excursions outside my house to avoid exposure to others. That does not mean I can decrease it to zero. But continuing to go out frequently, go to parties, or large gatherings does deserve scorn. When restrictions are lifted, if people go back to business as usual, we will be in trouible again.

[haapai]

I think that our goal was to prevent our hospitals from becoming death traps for both patients and health care workers.  Thank God we did that, mostly. 

If there were other goals, we don't seem to have gotten very far toward achieving them or even talking about them. 

We don't have nearly the PPE necessary to handle another wave without asking health care workers and first responders to take unnecessary risks.

We've improved our testing capacity but not to the scale that is necessary to pursue a test and trace strategy.  We are also running out of swabs and chemicals. 

We don't appear to have much of a plan to change physical workplaces to make them safer or consensus on what low-risk, non-essential jobs and activities should be permitted. 

[Tiny]

My perception of the goals of sheltering in place/self isolation:
1.)  keep the hospitals/fire/police/ambulances/emts  from being overwhelmed - which would mean people more than just those with covid19 would die (you know the people hospitals save/care for on a daily basis and the people first responders  go and respond to - cause you know the doctors, nurses, staff, paramedics, EMTs, fire and police  don't sit around eating bonbons and watching TV waiting for a bit of daily excitement when something happens.)   

2.)  keep the vulnerable people in our population as safe as possible so they DON"T get the virus, get sick, and die all at once.  

3.)  give everything/everyone TIME to adjust, find work arounds for daily life, gather data about treatment or keeping people from getting the virus. 

On a personal level - I want to 'self isolate/shelter in place'  because I do NOT want to become sick - I live alone  (who's gonna help me if I'm sick for 10 or 15 days?  that and I'm not ready for my kodokushi just yet).    Alternatively - if another of my live alone friends gets sick - I'd like to think that they might help me - or that I will help them.   If we are ALL sick... we are all screwed.  

I also know many old people and immune compromised or sickly people.  I don't want any of them to die from this. 


Maybe it's because I know firemen and paramedics and nurses and other hospital workers (and have heard my share of first hand horror stories or just heartbreaking stories, or just sad/hopeless stories  of their daily jobs) and have lots of immune system compromised and/or elderly people in my life that I sort of just immediately focused on those things... 

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Apr 15, 2020 12:05:40 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

So - I read a lot of the agony aunt/advice columns. Most of it is about coronavirus these days. or X-problem with coronavirus exacerbations.

Of particular focus is outrage at any partner/friend/family/coworker/employer that puts the letter writer 'at risk'. 

But unless we plan to isolate for a year or longer to starve/extinct the virus or develop effective treatment or vaccine, the goal of self-isolation is just to flatten the curve, and avoid 10% death rate as opposed to 3%.

US currently has 1,871 cases/million citizens with 47,069 recovered cases. So at best about 0.2% of US citizens have had it. Let's call it one whole percent to account for all those undiagnosed cases floating around.
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

What are these people thinking? Are they reading good news regarding treatment and vaccine development that I'm not seeing? Are they planning to stay put for a year?

What is your perception on the goals for self-isolation/sheltering in place? 

I think that this is a very large underestimate of the true numbers of cases.  It sounds like most cases that do not get hospitalized do not get tested.  If we make that assumption that every hospitalization is a case, and knowing the hospitalizations occur in about 15-20% of the cases, we can guesstimate that about 3.2 million, or about 1% of US population has been infected.

The big unknown is the asymptomatic carriers, or those who had a really mild disease and blew it off to allergies.  This is the great unknown.  

[Artemis Windsong]

There are too many unknowns.  What is known is this is a virulent contagion.  The reason to self-isolate and social distance.

I heard on Expedition Unknown that ALL of the Mt. Everest hopefuls and sherpas have been sent home.

[justme]

Apr 15, 2020 20:46:22 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Apr 15, 2020 12:05:40 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

So - I read a lot of the agony aunt/advice columns. Most of it is about coronavirus these days. or X-problem with coronavirus exacerbations.

Of particular focus is outrage at any partner/friend/family/coworker/employer that puts the letter writer 'at risk'. 

But unless we plan to isolate for a year or longer to starve/extinct the virus or develop effective treatment or vaccine, the goal of self-isolation is just to flatten the curve, and avoid 10% death rate as opposed to 3%.

US currently has 1,871 cases/million citizens with 47,069 recovered cases. So at best about 0.2% of US citizens have had it. Let's call it one whole percent to account for all those undiagnosed cases floating around.
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

What are these people thinking? Are they reading good news regarding treatment and vaccine development that I'm not seeing? Are they planning to stay put for a year?

What is your perception on the goals for self-isolation/sheltering in place? 

I think that this is a very large underestimate of the true numbers of cases.  It sounds like most cases that do not get hospitalized do not get tested.  If we make that assumption that every hospitalization is a case, and knowing the hospitalizations occur in about 15-20% of the cases, we can guesstimate that about 3.2 million, or about 1% of US population has been infected.

The big unknown is the asymptomatic carriers, or those who had a really mild disease and blew it off to allergies.  This is the great unknown.  

My area of Florida has moved into testing without a doctor signing off but just either needing symptoms, close contact with someone that's positive, or front line worker. But even with the ones they've opened I think Central Fl is still only testing maybe 1000 a day outside of hospitals and still only the sick ones.