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Post by Value Buy on Nov 23, 2019 11:22:30 GMT -5
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Post by Opti on Nov 23, 2019 16:38:30 GMT -5
Will all the Trump voters and apologists even notice when the polls shift dramatically, like right before the election? The polls weren't the problem. There was a big shift with the possible email reveal 10 days before the election. I noticed the shift, but honestly it appears as the Trump supporters here act like there wasn't one.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 16:44:04 GMT -5
the national pollsters got it right last time, VB.
did you mean to say something else, or are you purveying fake news?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 16:46:59 GMT -5
Will all the Trump voters and apologists even notice when the polls shift dramatically, like right before the election? The polls weren't the problem. There was a big shift with the possible email reveal 10 days before the election. I noticed the shift, but honestly it appears as the Trump supporters here act like there wasn't one. actually, it was not a big shift at all. it has been well analyzed by 538.
the undecided vote (which was actually very small) broke 2:1 for Trump. that means that in a state that had 200k undecided votes, Trump would have netted about 70k. that was sufficient for him to win in 2016 in THREE states that he was predicted to lose.
will this happen again? I would not doubt it for an instant. but the difference this time is that those three states will probably not be nearly as close as they were in 2016. note: I said probably. they might be exactly as close. and IF they are, he will win again. but that is a lot of "if's".
if you want something equally likely, how about this: what if Trump does not accept defeat?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 16:53:57 GMT -5
in other words, the premise of the OP is wrong.
a) the national polling was fairly accurate in 2016. it was actually more accurate than the previous three presidential elections.
b) the people who said they were voting for Trump voted for Trump, and the Clinton voters voted for Clinton. it was the very small undecided vote that changed the election.
c) pollsters don't survey undecided voters for opinion, NOR SHOULD THEY. they generally extrapolate that undecided voters will break evenly for the two candidates, however. this is part of MOE. and most national polls fell within MOE. so there is nothing that pollsters did "wrong" in 2016 (other than the LA Times poll, which was WAY off, due to methodological problems which have been widely discussed).
if you want to talk about the STATE polling, there were some serious problems there. but the national polling was basically spot on, to the degree that we can rely on it.
if the polling is within MOE (as it was in 2016), we should entertain uncertainty. that is probably the biggest takeaway from 2016.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 17:04:26 GMT -5
to answer the query of the OP more fulsomely, I would expect pollsters to do a better job in the states, and about the same nationally in 2020.
the head to head polls are dismal for Trump right now. he is generally losing by about double figures. if that happens, it will be an epic defeat of Mondale proportions. but early head to head polls are notoriously inaccurate, so I would not give them much credence.
the generic balloting and approval numbers are far more troublesome for Trump. if they persist, and they probably will, it will be very difficult for Trump to win.
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Post by dezii on Nov 23, 2019 17:08:27 GMT -5
Truthfully...if u are considering the popular vote..I believe that one will be easy for them to get the correct read on...however, when it comes to the electoral vote...I don't know. I admit, I am no statistician or qualified pollster...but to get that one correct..I believe is much harder to read...no matter what the polls will indicate. Your dealing with a smaller group of people who can say one thing in a poll but do something else in the voting booth..throw everything off.. Says one thing to please husband and family...yet privatly is fed up with the Donald, his lies, the cost of stuff at Walmart and when in privacy of voting booth...thinks.. "gotcha u SOB...take that" and comes out of booth and smiles sweetly to husband and family and friends with those red hats.. |
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 23, 2019 17:14:33 GMT -5
... if you want to talk about the STATE polling, ... Which is what the linked article mainly addresses. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 17:37:10 GMT -5
... if you want to talk about the STATE polling, ... Which is what the linked article mainly addresses. then perhaps VB should retitle the thread, because it clearly says "national". |
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 17:38:36 GMT -5
Truthfully...if u are considering the popular vote..I believe that one will be easy for them to get the correct read on...however, when it comes to the electoral vote...I don't know. I admit, I am no statistician or qualified pollster...but to get that one correct..I believe is much harder to read... no matter what the polls will indicate. Your dealing with a smaller group of people who can say one thing in a poll but do something else in the voting booth..throw everything off.. Says one thing to please husband and family...yet privatly is fed up with the Donald, his lies, the cost of stuff at Walmart and when in privacy of voting booth...thinks.. "gotcha u SOB...take that" and comes out of booth and smiles sweetly to husband and family and friends with those red hats.. you can believe whatever you like. but professional pollsters are trained to work around issues like this. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 17:40:43 GMT -5
the three state polls that were off are the big question, and I can comment on each if anyone is interested. the worst one was Wisconsin, so that might be the best place to start.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2019 18:02:28 GMT -5
the article gets a lot of things right, btw, including this little gem:
In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, between 13 and 15 percent of respondents in exit polls said they had decided in the last week of the campaign. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by a wide margin; in Wisconsin, it was about 30 points.
it was actually about 30 points in all three states.
the article doesn't analyze polling quality in WI, which was a major factor.
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 23, 2019 18:50:15 GMT -5
Nothing will surprise me in 2020.
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 24, 2019 8:21:28 GMT -5
the national pollsters got it right last time, VB.
did you mean to say something else, or are you purveying fake news?
I know you and I differ on this issue.........many of the polling companies/Institutions do the individual state polls too. If they do not use this data together, what do you have in the polling? Not much. Garbage in, garbage out. Evidently as long as we have the Electoral College, national polls will be secondary to the state polls in deciding the Presidency in close outcomes. Maybe I should retitle the thread, but since the state polling was wrong, and the polsters do both, I hold them accountable. |
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 24, 2019 8:22:36 GMT -5
Truthfully...if u are considering the popular vote..I believe that one will be easy for them to get the correct read on...however, when it comes to the electoral vote...I don't know. I admit, I am no statistician or qualified pollster...but to get that one correct..I believe is much harder to read...no matter what the polls will indicate. Your dealing with a smaller group of people who can say one thing in a poll but do something else in the voting booth..throw everything off.. Says one thing to please husband and family...yet privatly is fed up with the Donald, his lies, the cost of stuff at Walmart and when in privacy of voting booth...thinks.. "gotcha u SOB...take that" and comes out of booth and smiles sweetly to husband and family and friends with those red hats.. Works the other way too, just like 2016. History can repeat.  |
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Post by dezii on Nov 24, 2019 8:53:56 GMT -5
Truthfully...if u are considering the popular vote..I believe that one will be easy for them to get the correct read on...however, when it comes to the electoral vote...I don't know. I admit, I am no statistician or qualified pollster...but to get that one correct..I believe is much harder to read...no matter what the polls will indicate. Your dealing with a smaller group of people who can say one thing in a poll but do something else in the voting booth..throw everything off.. Says one thing to please husband and family...yet privatly is fed up with the Donald, his lies, the cost of stuff at Walmart and when in privacy of voting booth...thinks.. "gotcha u SOB...take that" and comes out of booth and smiles sweetly to husband and family and friends with those red hats.. Works the other way too, just like 2016. History can repeat. Agree...however , I hope u understand...I am hoping more for many coming out of the voting booth with a smile for loved ones...but in their minds thinking "Gotcha u SOB"....my scenario, not yours. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 25, 2019 1:19:09 GMT -5
the national pollsters got it right last time, VB.
did you mean to say something else, or are you purveying fake news?
I know you and I differ on this issue.........many of the polling companies/Institutions do the individual state polls too. right, and when they did that, they were generally right on the state polls, as well.
actually, I think you just like to "differ" with me, because "differing" with the facts is pointless.
let me know if you want to talk about the three relevant state polls, because they really were quite different than the national polls for a variety of reasons. again, the national polls were pretty much spot on. not so with the three state polls, with some notable exceptions (like the Trafalgar Group, which NAILED it).
edit: your article said the same thing, btw. they said the national polls were right. so you and YOUR OWN DAMNED ARTICLE also "differ" on this issue, and to the precise same degree we do.
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 25, 2019 8:34:50 GMT -5
I know you and I differ on this issue.........many of the polling companies/Institutions do the individual state polls too. right, and when they did that, they were generally right on the state polls, as well.
actually, I think you just like to "differ" with me, because "differing" with the facts is pointless.
let me know if you want to talk about the three relevant state polls, because they really were quite different than the national polls for a variety of reasons. again, the national polls were pretty much spot on. not so with the three state polls, with some notable exceptions (like the Trafalgar Group, which NAILED it).
edit: your article said the same thing, btw. they said the national polls were right. so you and YOUR OWN DAMNED ARTICLE also "differ" on this issue, and to the precise same degree we do.
Glad you finally read the article....Bills told you that the article talked about the state polling many posts ago Sometimes I actually post articles that discuss issues rationally, rather than some posters who only post articles that are fake news concerning Trump |
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 25, 2019 10:53:41 GMT -5
right, and when they did that, they were generally right on the state polls, as well.
actually, I think you just like to "differ" with me, because "differing" with the facts is pointless.
let me know if you want to talk about the three relevant state polls, because they really were quite different than the national polls for a variety of reasons. again, the national polls were pretty much spot on. not so with the three state polls, with some notable exceptions (like the Trafalgar Group, which NAILED it).
edit: your article said the same thing, btw. they said the national polls were right. so you and YOUR OWN DAMNED ARTICLE also "differ" on this issue, and to the precise same degree we do.
Glad you finally read the article....Bills told you that the article talked about the state polling many posts ago Sometimes I actually post articles that discuss issues rationally, rather than some posters who only post articles that are fake news concerning Trump So Trump University was not a scam and trump didn't settle with the complainants for $25 million dollars? So trump never even met or knew Story Daniels and never ordered her to be paid $130,000 to keep her quiet and not to ruin his chance of becoming president? I could go on. But we are not supposed to create a wall of text. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 25, 2019 11:40:24 GMT -5
right, and when they did that, they were generally right on the state polls, as well.
actually, I think you just like to "differ" with me, because "differing" with the facts is pointless.
let me know if you want to talk about the three relevant state polls, because they really were quite different than the national polls for a variety of reasons. again, the national polls were pretty much spot on. not so with the three state polls, with some notable exceptions (like the Trafalgar Group, which NAILED it).
edit: your article said the same thing, btw. they said the national polls were right. so you and YOUR OWN DAMNED ARTICLE also "differ" on this issue, and to the precise same degree we do.
Glad you finally read the article.... I quoted it in post #11, VB.
so, why the misleading thread title?
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