The Official 2020 Senate Race(s) Thread

[djAdvocate]

this is looking very much like 2018 to me:

odds that GOP keeps the Senate= 2:1

odds that Democrats keep the House= 3:1

what would change the math a bit is better odds that the Democrats take the presidency.

that would put more momentum on their side in some of the closer Senate races.

again, like last time, I don't think the House is that interesting.  I won't say it is a lock

for Democrats, but something would have to go very wrong for them to lose it.

if some of you are pointing to impeachment, I don't think that your point is justified.

the GOP had no trouble in the House after they impeached Clinton, even though that

impeachment was MORE unpopular than this one.

in the Senate, there are 40 solid seats on both sides.

on the GOP side 30 are not up, on the Democratic side, 33 are not up.

of we add in the "leaners", we get 46 Democrats and 50 Republicans.

the Democrats would have to win ALL FOUR TOSSUPS:

Alabama, Arizona, Colorado and Maine.

in those four states, the GOP currently holds THREE.

the toughest race for Democrats is probably Alabama.

I am not sure how Doug Jones is doing down there.

maybe some Southerners can speak up on that one.

we will see how it plays out.

[Value Buy]

dj, do you want everyone to post their local House races here, or keep it more to the Senate where we all have a sense of who the candidates are?
I only ask, because even I barely know who our House Representatives are after our specific district. I know the one to the east and one to the south of my district, and would never to be able to really discuss those races

[djAdvocate]

Sept 23, 2019 7:32:29 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

dj, do you want everyone to post their local House races here, or keep it more to the Senate where we all have a sense of who the candidates are?
I only ask, because even I barely know who our House Representatives are after our specific district. I know the one to the east and one to the south of my district, and would never to be able to really discuss those races

I don't think the House is all that interesting. so, yeah- if we can stick to the Senate, that would probably be better.

should I retitled the thread?

[Tennesseer]

Sept 23, 2019 10:54:36 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 23, 2019 7:32:29 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

dj, do you want everyone to post their local House races here, or keep it more to the Senate where we all have a sense of who the candidates are?
I only ask, because even I barely know who our House Representatives are after our specific district. I know the one to the east and one to the south of my district, and would never to be able to really discuss those races

I don't think the House is all that interesting. so, yeah- if we can stick to the Senate, that would probably be better.

should I retitled the thread?

Yea. Too broad a category.

[djAdvocate]

270 to win now predicts that Democrats will win the Senate:

www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

election betting odds still have the GOP at 58%

[djAdvocate]

the Senate looks even more competitive for Democrats, now.

when I started this thread, there were four races that were competitive:

Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and NC.

now, it looks like Democrats are walking away with AZ and CO.
that leaves Maine and NC.
but in addition, there is MT, which is a dead heat, and two more that they have an OUTSIDE chance at winning: SC and IA.

so, the remaining list looks like this:

leaning Dem: AZ, CO
tossup: NC, ME, and MT
leaning Rep: AL, IA, SC

the Democrats have to win 3 of the last 5 to guarantee a majority, and 2 of the 5 if they win the WH.

I have no idea what the odds are, other than "too close to call". but the near-double-digit leads in AZ and CO should be encouraging for Democrats. they are leading or tied in all three of the tossups.

[countrygirl2]

I have been reading of late in many articles, the dems are outfund raising the GOP 2 to 1. I'm thinking the judgeship in Wis is a forerunner of things to come. A lot of people don't rave like me, but I believe there are a lot of very angry people out there that do not approve of trump and the GOP congresspeople. Some are just not so vocal.

[djAdvocate]

most of the races mentioned above have Democrats outspending the GOP.

[kadee79]

The Democrat in SC out raised Lindsey this last quarter...…..fingers crossed!

Would LOVE, LOVE to see MM voted out in Ky.!

[tallguy]

Apr 20, 2020 21:40:53 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

The Democrat in SC out raised Lindsey this last quarter...…..fingers crossed!

Would LOVE, LOVE to see MM voted out in Ky.!

The one person in this country who has done more to try to destroy democracy than Donald Trump.  

[happyhoix]

Heard a radio ad this morning for a SE TN gop candidate who claimed she needed to be elected to help Trump fight back against Chinese socialists. She was shouting and seemed unhinged. I guess they s is the new normal for the GOP - no substance, no logic, just shouting.

[tbop77]

Apr 20, 2020 21:40:53 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

The Democrat in SC out raised Lindsey this last quarter...…..fingers crossed!

Would LOVE, LOVE to see MM voted out in Ky.!

Mitch won't lose.  Don't you know he brought the country together in a bipartisan vote for the $2T economic rescue bill?  Mitch (and Republicans) can't spend the taxpayer money fast enough NOW.  

Could be wrong, I never thought Trump toady Matt Bevins would lose either.....but thank god he did!  

[djAdvocate]

the odds have changed a bit since I posted them last.

Senate, GOP is favored 5:4
House, Dems are favored 7:2

these odds have moved in favor of Democrats considerably, and the trend is further in that direction.

I think the odds in the Senate are not looking at the actual races quite as well as they could. as posted above, there are 3 races that are tossups to slightly FAVORING Democrats right now, and that is all they have to win. therefore, I think it is fair to think of them as the favourites right now.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 21, 2020 6:50:44 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

Apr 20, 2020 21:40:53 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

The Democrat in SC out raised Lindsey this last quarter...…..fingers crossed!

Would LOVE, LOVE to see MM voted out in Ky.!

Mitch won't lose.  Don't you know he brought the country together in a bipartisan vote for the $2T economic rescue bill?  Mitch (and Republicans) can't spend the taxpayer money fast enough NOW.  

Could be wrong, I never thought Trump toady Matt Bevins would lose either.....but thank god he did!  

I hate to concur, but I do.

this state will be nearly impossible for Democrats to flip.

[happyhoix]

Susan Collins is in trouble, and so are a few other key gop senators.

Some of the GOP heads are promoting the idea of an economic turn around by Memorial Day. Trump f there isn’t a significant improvement by Election Day the GOP will be screwed.

Not that they are 100% responsible for the cv or recession, but it’s always the party in charge when we hit an iceberg that gets blamed.

[dezii]

Apr 28, 2020 7:10:09 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Susan Collins is in trouble, and so are a few other key gop senators.

Some of the GOP heads are promoting the idea of an economic turn around by Memorial Day. Trump f there isn’t a significant improvement by Election Day the GOP will be screwed.

Not that they are 100% responsible for the cv or recession, but it’s always the party in charge when we hit an iceberg that gets blamed.

"

Not that they are 100% responsible for the cv or recession, but it’s always the party in charge when we hit an iceberg that gets blamed."

True in most cases, BUT in the Donalds case, whether by design or luck...he unwillingly or willingly  decided, since the GOP did not have the #'s, to appeal to a certain narrow segment of the population and damn the rest...

He went after the smaller electoral States knowing  they were populated in the most part with "afraid of change" conservative voters...

Also in many cases , populated by those who felt they had no national spokes person.  Folks who one can consider are members of hate groups, and believe that the Donald understands their frustrations and while he might not be able to publicly support all of their wants and desires..he at least understands them and even sympathizes with them, and tempers any criticism of them..
so when a world wide calamity hits us as the virus is doing now...by never ever trying to bring the country together as Merkle and other EU leaders have done, the Donald does not get any positive bounce or at least so up to today, 4/28/2020.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 28, 2020 7:10:09 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Susan Collins is in trouble, and so are a few other key gop senators.

Some of the GOP heads are promoting the idea of an economic turn around by Memorial Day. Trump f there isn’t a significant improvement by Election Day the GOP will be screwed.

Not that they are 100% responsible for the cv or recession, but it’s always the party in charge when we hit an iceberg that gets blamed.

most people have not felt the economic fallout of this virus, yet.

but they will.

[djAdvocate]

this should scare the crap out of the GOP:

www.niskanencenter.org/negative-partisanship-and-the-2020-congressional-elections/

if it holds up, Democrats could win 52, and have an outside chance at a few more.

IE: Ernst only leads by 1% in the latest PPP poll. her rating has gone from solid to likely, and may end up in the tossup column.

oddsmakers have the GOP's chances in the Senate down to 17:15 as of tonight.

[djAdvocate]

betting odds have been 50/50 in the Senate for close to a month now.
House odds are 7:2 Democratic majority

there are very few bright spots for the GOP lately.

electionbettingodds.com/Congress2020.html

[kadee79]

I didn't pay a lot of attention, but just caught part of an article earlier...they were saying that 10 GOP Senate seats could well be turned.  Not sure I believe that, but there were a couple of polling numbers...like MM is 1% down in Ky.  Know anything about that?

[emma1420]

Jun 2, 2020 21:45:28 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

I didn't pay a lot of attention, but just caught part of an article earlier...they were saying that 10 GOP Senate seats could well be turned.  Not sure I believe that, but there were a couple of polling numbers...like MM is 1% down in Ky.  Know anything about that?

I think 10 is unlikely, but there are seats like Pat Robert's open seat in Kansas that may be far more competitive than the republican's would like.  The major candidates on the GOP side are all kissing up to Trump as much as possible (one of those candidates is Kris Kobach), which plays well with the GOP base here, but does not play so well with the general electorate.  The democrat is following the Laura Kelly model.  Presenting herself as reasonable, willing to compromise, and moderate.  Kansas is still a republican state, but democrats can and do win here state wide.   So I think the senate seat is competitive even though it's more likely that the republican will win.

I think the reality is that there are a lot more pick-up opportunities for democrats then I think most people would have thought say 4 years ago.  I think the only good pick-up opportunity for the GOP is Doug Jones seat in Alabama.  And the democrats don't need to win all these races they just need to win a few of them.  And I think McSally in AZ, Gardner in CO, and to a lesser degree Collins in ME are in a lot of trouble.  I would be very surprised if McSally and Gardner, in particular, keep their seats.  They have excellent challengers that fit their states, and they've had to run to the far right to keep the GOP nomination.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 3, 2020 9:24:43 GMT -5 emma1420 said:

Jun 2, 2020 21:45:28 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

I didn't pay a lot of attention, but just caught part of an article earlier...they were saying that 10 GOP Senate seats could well be turned.  Not sure I believe that, but there were a couple of polling numbers...like MM is 1% down in Ky.  Know anything about that?

I think 10 is unlikely, but there are seats like Pat Robert's open seat in Kansas that may be far more competitive than the republican's would like.  The major candidates on the GOP side are all kissing up to Trump as much as possible (one of those candidates is Kris Kobach), which plays well with the GOP base here, but does not play so well with the general electorate.  The democrat is following the Laura Kelly model.  Presenting herself as reasonable, willing to compromise, and moderate.  Kansas is still a republican state, but democrats can and do win here state wide.   So I think the senate seat is competitive even though it's more likely that the republican will win.

I think the reality is that there are a lot more pick-up opportunities for democrats then I think most people would have thought say 4 years ago.  I think the only good pick-up opportunity for the GOP is Doug Jones seat in Alabama.  And the democrats don't need to win all these races they just need to win a few of them.  And I think McSally in AZ, Gardner in CO, and to a lesser degree Collins in ME are in a lot of trouble.  I would be very surprised if McSally and Gardner, in particular, keep their seats.  They have excellent challengers that fit their states, and they've had to run to the far right to keep the GOP nomination.

if Kobach wins in the primary, that is another seat that the Democrats can go after.  he has already lost a statewide race, and is wildly unpopular amongst liberals and independents.

I also think 10 is at the outer limits of what is possible, but it is not hard to visualize 9.

the most vulnerable seats have already been discussed, but here they are again:

Doug Jones is likely to lose -1

McSalley and Gardner are likely to lose +2

Tillis and Collins are too close to call, but in a Democratic landslide, they are gone +2

that would put the split at 50/50.

then there is the next wall of protection for the GOP, which would be vulnerable in a landslide:

Loeffler (GA), Ernst (IA), Robert's open seat (KS), Steve Daines (MT), Graham (SC) and Cornyn (TX).

it is difficult to imagine all of those Republicans losing, but some of them seem more vulnerable than others. 

by my accounting, MM is not even on the radar.

[kadee79]

Don't think Loeffler stands a chance...Collins is going to take that one.
But the other seat may go Democrat...keeping my fingers crossed there.

[djAdvocate]

quick aside- the second tier is the most interesting to me.
I would love to see Ernst and Graham get beat.

[kadee79]

Here is some info on the Ga. Senate race...both seats in contention....

The primary election is coming up Tuesday, and recent polls tell us that many Georgia voters are still undecided about who to vote for.



One of the top races on the ballot is for the U.S. Senate seat Republican David Perdue currently holds. Seven Democrats have qualified for the primary election. Perdue, who does not face a primary challenge, is running for a second term. Libertarian Shane Hazel is also running.

Below, we have provided you with a rundown of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s coverage of these candidates, including links to our own articles, videos of them in debate and their campaign websites.

www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/election-2020-complete-guide-georgia-senate-race/AAYNx6os6kOhF8kuH9glkL/

[djAdvocate]

it all hinges on voter suppression in GA.

[kadee79]

Jun 5, 2020 15:47:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

it all hinges on voter suppression in GA.

Stacey is working VERY hard to over come most of the major obstacles...get as many folks to the polls as possible or get them absentee ballots & get them returned in time.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 5, 2020 16:07:24 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Jun 5, 2020 15:47:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

it all hinges on voter suppression in GA.

Stacey is working VERY hard to over come most of the major obstacles...get as many folks to the polls as possible or get them absentee ballots & get them returned in time.

I know she is. but she has 400 years of voter/other suppression to overcome, kadee.

I would be more optimistic if it weren't for the dark history in your state and elsewhere.

[kadee79]

Don't give up on us down here yet!  Some ARE learning, slowly.