RV sales slipping

[kadee79]

Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign that a recession could be just ahead.

Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the northern Indiana city and the surrounding area are watched by economists and investors for early indications of waning consumer demand for luxury items, often the first sign of economic anxiety. 


Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.

www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-around-the-bend-11566207001

[kadee79]

Then add to that, the layoff coming from US Steel in that area too....quote from the body of the article....

In mid-June, the company said it would idle two blast furnaces at its Great lakes and Gary Works plants, citing lower steel prices and softening demand.

U.S. Steel said the lay-offs at the Michigan plant could last beyond six months. They will impact nearly every area of the facility, from blast furnace to finishing operations, a company spokeswoman told Reuters.

The lay-offs call into question claims President Donald Trump has made about the resurgence of the domestic steel industry. Last week in Pennsylvania, Trump said his 25% tariff on foreign imports has turned a "dead" business into a "thriving" enterprise.

Domestic steel prices did rise in the immediate aftermath of Trump's tariffs. But they have fallen dramatically amid improved supplies and weakening demand from the auto and farm machinery sectors.

Prices of hot-rolled coil are down nearly 37% from their 2018 peak.

U.S. Steel's stock price has plunged 73% since March 1, 2018, when Trump announced his decision to crack down on foreign imports.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/us-steel-plans-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-workers-in-michigan/ar-AAG24vA?ocid=spartandhp

[Cheesy FL-Vol]

So much winning that we are tired of winning. 

[Value Buy]

Aug 20, 2019 6:38:38 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Then add to that, the layoff coming from US Steel in that area too....quote from the body of the article....

In mid-June, the company said it would idle two blast furnaces at its Great lakes and Gary Works plants, citing lower steel prices and softening demand.

U.S. Steel said the lay-offs at the Michigan plant could last beyond six months. They will impact nearly every area of the facility, from blast furnace to finishing operations, a company spokeswoman told Reuters.

The lay-offs call into question claims President Donald Trump has made about the resurgence of the domestic steel industry. Last week in Pennsylvania, Trump said his 25% tariff on foreign imports has turned a "dead" business into a "thriving" enterprise.

Domestic steel prices did rise in the immediate aftermath of Trump's tariffs. But they have fallen dramatically amid improved supplies and weakening demand from the auto and farm machinery sectors.

Prices of hot-rolled coil are down nearly 37% from their 2018 peak.

U.S. Steel's stock price has plunged 73% since March 1, 2018, when Trump announced his decision to crack down on foreign imports.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/us-steel-plans-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-workers-in-michigan/ar-AAG24vA?ocid=spartandhp

You neglect to post the lay offs are temporary. The union signed a huge new labor contract earlier this year, and I assure you many union memebers in my community said they would expect some lay offs to follow within a year to cut employee costs.
No one really seems to know why the price of the hot rolled steel collapsed as fast as it did. It was something besides demand useage as it was so fast.

[Value Buy]

Aug 19, 2019 10:24:02 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign that a recession could be just ahead.

Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the northern Indiana city and the surrounding area are watched by economists and investors for early indications of waning consumer demand for luxury items, often the first sign of economic anxiety. 


Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.

www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-around-the-bend-11566207001

We spend much of the summer in this area and it did get super heated in production numbers the last two years.
Even the article mentioned this, but waited to the end of the article to explain they overbuilt product as all the companies wanted a bigger piece of the ecnomic pie. Believe it or not even mcDonalds and other restaurants were closing early or closing the sitdown areas of the restaurants down at times due to no available help. Some retail businesses had to lower actual business hours this summer because no help to man the registers or stock the shelves. In our campground, some campers who are working in the industry had cut back their time at camp because they are still working long hours, although admittedly not like last spring. 

[busymom]

It's all about supply & demand.     If people are holding onto their money, it doesn't matter how much prices are slashed...

[kadee79]

Aug 20, 2019 8:39:54 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Aug 20, 2019 6:38:38 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Then add to that, the layoff coming from US Steel in that area too....quote from the body of the article....

www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/us-steel-plans-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-workers-in-michigan/ar-AAG24vA?ocid=spartandhp

You neglect to post the lay offs are temporary. The union signed a huge new labor contract earlier this year, and I assure you many union memebers in my community said they would expect some lay offs to follow within a year to cut employee costs.
No one really seems to know why the price of the hot rolled steel collapsed as fast as it did. It was something besides demand useage as it was so fast.

Let's wait & see how many of those layoffs are temporary.  I'm betting that not all get called back if any!

[Value Buy]

Aug 20, 2019 20:24:06 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Aug 20, 2019 8:39:54 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

You neglect to post the lay offs are temporary. The union signed a huge new labor contract earlier this year, and I assure you many union memebers in my community said they would expect some lay offs to follow within a year to cut employee costs.
No one really seems to know why the price of the hot rolled steel collapsed as fast as it did. It was something besides demand useage as it was so fast.

Let's wait & see how many of those layoffs are temporary.  I'm betting that not all get called back if any!

I read this article before you posted it yesterday.
The strange thing is U.S. Steel was holding job fairs and advertising they were hiring for the Gary Workks about a month ago. They were looking for something like 200 new hires. A friend of my son, works at Gary Works, and now was transferred to another plant in Portage. I believe he had to accept the transfer, and could not be forced without permission.
The downside, has to work weekends and overtime, as they need qualified experienced workers at that plant. They cannot find them.
I believe part of the problem is babyboomers are retiring and many had been hired in the late 60's early 70's when the mills were pretty busy, creating a higher retirement rate than there was in the last ten years.
My son works for Arcellar Middal (sp? formerly Bethlehem steel) and he does say orders are slowing and many workers are only being scheduled 48 hours, but overtime is still there if they want it. Currently working 12 hour shifts, four days a week as contract called for 12 hour shifts per union  contract and picks up at least one shift every week, sometimes two on days off. I tell him he is crazy and should enjoy the days off. In mid July he said it was slowing but has been steady since then.