Anyone do commodities?

[kadee79]

I had been wondering if any farmers in my old stomping grounds (central Ill.) had been able to get into their fields.  Even if they did, a lot of them may have big spots drowned out of sprouted seeds.  Anyway, just saw this on the net...


www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/after-a-biblical-spring-this-is-the-week-that-could-break-the-corn-belt/ar-AACnWbC?li=BBnbfcN

Some good graphs at this link.  Doesn't look like it's going to be a good year for either corn or soy in the biggest growing areas.

[Value Buy]

The farmers that do get the corn in the ground will be well rewarded with prices this year.
Soybeans not so sure as of yet. Depends on China doing the trade agreement.
Of course since they have killed off so many hogs in China, the need for corn or soybeans has diminished this year anyway.

[kadee79]

I thought I read that China had just recently killed all soy contracts with the US?


Getting their corn or soy in the ground isn't all it takes.  If you looked at my link there is a picture there of corn up a few inches sitting in a huge area of water.  That happens often in the area where I grew up in central Ill....and it also happens in other basically flat state...plains.  If they get any more rain...it won't matter if they got the seeds in or not.

Also, whether or not the farmers that get a corn crop this year will benefit...will depend on whether or not they have pre-sold their crop at some price.  Many do that to have the $$$ to buy all the supplies they need to get that crop...so selling ahead...which is not always good.

[busymom]

You need someone to buy what you produce.  With contracts getting cancelled, I can't even imagine what the farmers ought to do.



This is a timely thread.  DH & I just drove through the Midwest this week, and were shocked at how much land hadn't yet been planted.  This includes areas not hit by flooding.  I was going to start a thread when I got back home asking those who invest, where you think crop prices are headed?  I'm betting grocery prices are going to get expensive, if farmers are "taking a year off".

[kadee79]

And more on this now....


www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/corn-harvest-might-be-worse-than-forecast-farmers-warn/ar-AACSRIU?li=BBnbfcL


The flooding of the rivers has halted river traffic that brings up farm chemicals & seed & takes crops back down for shipping elsewhere.  


And just an observation on how times have changed...when I was growing up in the 50's the saying then was "corn knee high by the 4th of July"....in central Ill., so south of this farmer in the opening of the article.

[kadee79]

And here...instead of planting, they have a party to air their woes.....

DEER GROVE, Ill. (Reuters) - The Happy Spot was a little depressed.

Dozens of corn farmers and those who sell them seed, chemicals and equipment gathered on Thursday at the restaurant in Deer Grove, Illinois, after heavy rains caused unprecedented delays in planting this year and contributed to record floods across the central United States.

The storms have left millions of acres unseeded in the $51 billion U.S. corn market and put crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season. Together, the problems heap more pain on a farm sector that has suffered from years of low crop prices and a U.S.-China trade war that is slowing agricultural exports.

Forecasts for even more rain sent U.S. corn futures to a five-year high on Friday, though fewer farmers will benefit from soaring prices because of the planting disruptions.

James McCune, a farmer from Mineral, Illinois, was unable to plant 85% of his intended corn acres and wanted to commiserate with his fellow farmers by hosting the "Prevent Plant Party" at The Happy Spot. He invited them to swap stories while tucking in to fried chicken and a keg of beer in Deer Grove, a village of about 50 people located 120 miles (193 km) west of Chicago.

"Everybody's so down in the dumps," McCune said.

news.yahoo.com/illinois-farmers-planting-floods-throw-132310742.html

[kadee79]

Another article on planting or not...corn....


www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/weather-woes-cause-american-corn-farmers-to-throw-in-the-towel/ar-AAD46Ib?li=BBnb7Kz

[Value Buy]

We have driven 90 miles east to camp near Warsaw Indiana in the northeast section of the state the last two weekends.
Corn two weeks ago was at best, six inches high, at it's worst, barely above ground.
Friday, this week the same corn went from waist high, to knee high at best to six inches at the bad end.
We were shocked how it had grown. There were a few fields pushing chest high.
It is reported 70% of Indiana's potential corn crop was planted. I believe the corn has grown so fast after planting due to warm earth temperature promoting the seeds to grow earlier than in normal colder ground temperatures and with plenty of rain, the plants literlally grew like weeds. Granted 70% of normal plantings does not bode well, but these farmers should produce record bushels per acre this year.
Acreage of soybean plantings weree at 75% of normal and considering China tarriffs, you have to wonder why farmers even planted soybeans this year......
We did observe fields that were still lef empty this year, but much of this land was either very low or very hilly.
    

[countrygirl2]

Yet prices are down today.  Not looking good, have to have a market to sell it too.


I've read that the hog disease in China is taking a toll on corn purchases too.

[kadee79]

It may be a good thing that the crops will be smaller this year....

China is the world's largest importer of soybeans, and traditionally they have come from the US.

American exports of soybeans have fallen dramatically because of the US-China trade war, however, hurting US farmers.

Even if a deal is reached, China could continue relying on Brazil and other countries for its soybeans.



US farmers have been hammered by the US-China trade war, and the pain could linger even if the two sides strike a deal.

American and Chinese officials are meeting in Shanghai in a bid to hash out a trade deal that would benefit both sides. US farmers have a large stake in the negotiations, as agricultural exports to China have slumped and reports of crops rotting in fields have become commonplace. That trend could accelerate if China permanently turns to other markets for its crops.

Earlier this year, Markets Insider reported that the US paid roughly $16 billion in subsidies to farmers to help ease the pressure from President Donald Trump's trade war with China. 

Soybean diplomacy

To understand this you need to understand soybeans. China loves soybeans. Really loves them.

China imported 88 million tons of soybeans from America last year, down from 95.5 million in 2017, according to customs data. The volumes have particularly plunged since the trade war began in the spring of 2018, according to Bloomberg.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-sources-more-farm-goods-brazil-us-trade-war-2019-7-1028403926

Just remember, this won't only affect the farmers, it will also affect every business that they use for any kind of product or equipment.  It's gonna get ugly folks.