Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Sept 20, 2019 7:28:19 GMT -5
I see headlines saying Bill de Blasio has dropped out of the Presidential race. I haven't read them yet so I'm not linking anything.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 20, 2019 10:01:17 GMT -5
I see headlines saying Bill de Blasio has dropped out of the Presidential race. I haven't read them yet so I'm not linking anything. Who? 😋😋 We are getting closer to a manageable number.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2019 3:08:29 GMT -5
ok, we have some shifts in the race again.....
Warren is now at a new polling high of nearly 20% in the race, and in 2nd place. she is now ahead of Sanders by 3%, which is at the edge of polling error. in addition, Buttigieg is slightly edging Harris, in 4th. it is his first time in 4th place in 3 months.
Biden still leads by 10%, but this is near the bottom of his lead.
this might actually get interesting. though progress is slow for Warren, it is also steady. and she has totally closed the gap in Iowa, where she has lead in the last THREE polls. and Biden, Sanders and Warren are in a 3 way tie in NH, as well. Sanders is giving Biden a run for his money in Nevada, as well- but Biden is totally dominating in SC, where he leads by 20%.
it is impossible to say how this will unfold, but with these three candidates all doing well in the first three states, it might be a pretty entertaining race. I will also add that they are all quite different candates (mainstream, left, and populist), Democrats can choose their own vision more than usual this time.
finally, California will play a big role this time. and this race is also highly competitive among these three candidates. that primary is barely 5 months away at this time......
edit: update on the betting odds: Warren is up to 38% likely to win the nomination, another record for her, making her the clear favourite amongst betters.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 22, 2019 10:17:50 GMT -5
Biden at the last debate, What the hell is he talking about?? So Biden was asked whether he still held these attitudes: “What responsibility do you think that Americans need to take to repair the legacy of slavery in our country?” What follows is a transcript of his rambling answer (I have omitted nothing), which for some reason includes references to record players and Venezuela:
Well, they have to deal with the — look, there’s institutional segregation in this country. From the time I got involved, I started dealing with that. Redlining banks, making sure we are in a position where — look, you talk about education. I propose is we take the very poor schools, triple the amount of money we spend from $15 to $45 billion a year. Give every single teacher a raise to the $60,000 level.
Number two, make sure that we bring in to help the teachers deal with the problems that come from home. The problems that come from home, we have one school psychologist for every 1,500 kids in America today. It’s crazy. The teachers are — I’m married to a teacher, my deceased wife is a teacher. They have every problem coming to them. Make sure that every single child does, in fact, have 3, 4 and 5-year-olds go to school. Not day care, school.
Social workers help parents deal with how to raise their children. It’s not that they don’t want to help, they don’t know what to play the radio, make sure the television — excuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the — make sure that kids hear words, a kid coming from a very poor school — a very poor background will hear 4 million words fewer spoken by the time we get there.
MODERATOR: Thank you, Mr. Vice President.
Biden: No, I’m going to go like the rest of them do, twice over. Because here’s the deal. The deal is that we’ve got this a little backwards. By the way, in Venezuela, we should be allowing people to come here from Venezuela. I know Maduro. I’ve confronted Maduro. You talk about the need to do something in Latin America. I’m the guy that came up with $740 million, to see to it those three countries, in fact, changed their system to people don’t have to chance to leave. You’re acting like we just discovered this yesterday. Thank you very much.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Sept 22, 2019 13:57:04 GMT -5
About the same as every one that backed Obama, worried about it then. Didn't matter then doesn't matter now..
It is going to fix it's self,, like Sanders and Warren free stuff.
"It is going to fix it's self" How?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2019 14:38:21 GMT -5
Biden at the last debate, What the hell is he talking about?? So Biden was asked whether he still held these attitudes: “What responsibility do you think that Americans need to take to repair the legacy of slavery in our country?” What follows is a transcript of his rambling answer (I have omitted nothing), which for some reason includes references to record players and Venezuela:
Well, they have to deal with the — look, there’s institutional segregation in this country. From the time I got involved, I started dealing with that. Redlining banks, making sure we are in a position where — look, you talk about education. I propose is we take the very poor schools, triple the amount of money we spend from $15 to $45 billion a year. Give every single teacher a raise to the $60,000 level.
Number two, make sure that we bring in to help the teachers deal with the problems that come from home. The problems that come from home, we have one school psychologist for every 1,500 kids in America today. It’s crazy. The teachers are — I’m married to a teacher, my deceased wife is a teacher. They have every problem coming to them. Make sure that every single child does, in fact, have 3, 4 and 5-year-olds go to school. Not day care, school.
Social workers help parents deal with how to raise their children. It’s not that they don’t want to help, they don’t know what to play the radio, make sure the television — excuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the — make sure that kids hear words, a kid coming from a very poor school — a very poor background will hear 4 million words fewer spoken by the time we get there.
MODERATOR: Thank you, Mr. Vice President.
Biden: No, I’m going to go like the rest of them do, twice over. Because here’s the deal. The deal is that we’ve got this a little backwards. By the way, in Venezuela, we should be allowing people to come here from Venezuela. I know Maduro. I’ve confronted Maduro. You talk about the need to do something in Latin America. I’m the guy that came up with $740 million, to see to it those three countries, in fact, changed their system to people don’t have to chance to leave. You’re acting like we just discovered this yesterday. Thank you very much.
in the first part, he is talking about creating opportunities for minorities through education. that is pretty obvious.
as far as Maduro goes, without the context, I have no idea.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 22, 2019 19:15:14 GMT -5
About the same as every one that backed Obama, worried about it then. Didn't matter then doesn't matter now..
It is going to fix it's self,, like Sanders and Warren free stuff.
"It is going to fix it's self" How? Magic, Like Sander and Warren's free stuff.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 23, 2019 4:45:32 GMT -5
"It is going to fix it's self" How? Magic, Like Sander and Warren's free stuff. You worried about the debt?
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 23, 2019 7:16:09 GMT -5
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 23, 2019 7:17:51 GMT -5
Did Cory Booker unintentionally announce he will drop out of the race? He stated if he did not raise a set amount of money by October, he would drop out Isn't that a kiss of death for the campaign?
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 23, 2019 8:43:30 GMT -5
Magic, Like Sander and Warren's free stuff. You worried about the debt? I did worry about the debt when Obama was President, But I was reassured that debt was OK by the Liberals on this board! OK then, must be OK now.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 23, 2019 11:31:34 GMT -5
Did Cory Booker unintentionally announce he will drop out of the race? He stated if he did not raise a set amount of money by October, he would drop out Isn't that a kiss of death for the campaign? I took it as an effort by Booker to energize his followers into helping him raise money.
Probably doesn't matter either way, I think he's done.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2019 13:47:58 GMT -5
You worried about the debt? I did worry about the debt when Obama was President, But I was reassured that debt was OK by the Liberals on this board! OK then, must be OK now.
the GOP has lost it's way.
that is why I quit the party.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Sept 23, 2019 14:28:35 GMT -5
You worried about the debt? I did worry about the debt when Obama was President, But I was reassured that debt was OK by the Liberals on this board! OK then, must be OK now.
No you weren't. Unless you are again grossly mischaracterizing liberal beliefs and confusing who holds them, the most ardent liberals on this board are strongly against deficit spending and the debt. I know you are not really concerned with truth, but some things really stick out as utter falsehoods. And no, I don't expect you to ever get better at it.
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Post by Opti on Sept 23, 2019 16:30:25 GMT -5
Did Cory Booker unintentionally announce he will drop out of the race? He stated if he did not raise a set amount of money by October, he would drop out Isn't that a kiss of death for the campaign? I took it as an effort by Booker to energize his followers into helping him raise money.
Probably doesn't matter either way, I think he's done.
I thought he would do better, but it is clear his time is not now for the Presidency.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 24, 2019 4:24:09 GMT -5
You worried about the debt? I did worry about the debt when Obama was President, But I was reassured that debt was OK by the Liberals on this board! OK then, must be OK now.
The party of Trump and their logic never ceases to amaze me...…..
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 25, 2019 12:56:26 GMT -5
President Trump continues to run unopposed. Biden is gone now- the Democrats would have to be crazy to let another crooked candidate linked to the failed Obama regime challenge Trump. Trump will eat him alive. To me, there are two reasonably likely nominees: Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. I'm not worried about either of them, but I'd be more worried about Harris than Warren because of her "identity politics" advantage- she's a "woman of color" and that may motivate more Democrats to vote because they care about that shit. I'm not sure if the "white guilt" vote that put Obama in office is still potent enough to matter-- I rather think that the bloom is off that rose.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 25, 2019 12:58:02 GMT -5
13 Keys to the white house. 6 false = Democrats 1. Party Mandate: After midterms, incumbent party holds more seats than after previous midterm. FALSE 2. Contest: There is no serious contest for incumbent party nomination. UNKNOWN, but likely true 3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting President. TRUE 4. Third party: There is no significant independent campaign. UNKNOWN, but likely true. 5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. UNKNOWN (and I make no guess on this one) 6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. UNKNOWN 7. Policy Change: The incumbent effects major changes in national policy. TRUE?? I guess I am not sure how to measure this. 8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE 9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE 10. Foreign / Military failure: The incumbent suffers no major failure in foreign or military relations. (imho) FALSE 11. Foreign/ Military success: The incumbent achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs. DEBATABLE 12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Probably TRUE. I guess people find him charismatic. I can't say he is a bona fide national hero, even if some groups believe he is. 13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. UNKNOWN, although I don't think anyone in the works right now is a national hero. False = 4 True = 3 Unknown / debatable = 6 Honestly- where do you get this stuff?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 25, 2019 19:08:37 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 25, 2019 22:38:42 GMT -5
Warren is popping.
she has lead in the last two national polls, and trailed by 2% in the 3rd one. she has never lead in a poll before this week.
she is now over 20%. something only two candidates have done (Biden and Sanders). and she is gaining fast.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 26, 2019 9:40:22 GMT -5
Warren is popping. she has lead in the last two national polls, and trailed by 2% in the 3rd one. she has never lead in a poll before this week. she is now over 20%. something only two candidates have done (Biden and Sanders). and she is gaining fast. Warren knows how to work the crowd. Apparently she stays after her rallies to take selfies with every single person there who wants one. She's also the candidate with the most well thought out policies, including how she plans to pay for them. She seems to be avoiding being nothing but 'anti-Trump' which is good.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2019 10:35:47 GMT -5
new polling data out continues to spell trouble for Biden. though probably not as much as last week's.
Biden got another double digit lead poll: Harris. but the lead was cut by 1/3 from the previous survey. the bad news for Warren is that the votes didn't accrue to HER. it went mostly to Yang.
also, Sanders is performing well recently. other than a short stretch in August, this is his best polling number since MAY.
so, this is really looking like a 3 way race: Biden, Sanders, and Warren. none of the other candidates are really viable. I am calling everyone else other than these three candidates "third tier" as of today. there is nobody on that level within 10% of the second tier, and the gap is growing. only Yang's numbers are improving among that field.
NOTE: Warren is leading in the first two primary states. if Biden doesn't reverse that, he is going to have a tough road to hoe.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 30, 2019 12:11:52 GMT -5
All roads are tough to hoe. Easier to hoe rows.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 30, 2019 13:45:44 GMT -5
new polling data out continues to spell trouble for Biden. though probably not as much as last week's. Biden got another double digit lead poll: Harris. but the lead was cut by 1/3 from the previous survey. the bad news for Warren is that the votes didn't accrue to HER. it went mostly to Yang. also, Sanders is performing well recently. other than a short stretch in August, this is his best polling number since MAY. so, this is really looking like a 3 way race: Biden, Sanders, and Warren. none of the other candidates are really viable. I am calling everyone else other than these three candidates "third tier" as of today. there is nobody on that level within 10% of the second tier, and the gap is growing. only Yang's numbers are improving among that field. NOTE: Warren is leading in the first two primary states. if Biden doesn't reverse that, he is going to have a tough road to hoe. SNL was kind of brutal to all the candidates last Saturday, but Woody Harrelson did such a great Biden, and they wrote it so funny. If you haven't seen it, go look for it - I believe the skit was called the impeachment town hall. If Biden wins, Harrelson will have to come every week like Baldwin does now. (I'm bored of Baldwin's Trump. They should get someone new.)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 30, 2019 15:18:02 GMT -5
All roads are tough to hoe. Easier to hoe rows. I moved off the farm in 1981.
it's all roads for me, now.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 30, 2019 16:56:33 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 1, 2019 10:57:14 GMT -5
Warren's Soarin'!
she is up 6% in TWO WEEKS and now trails Biden by only 4%. at this rate she will have caught him not only before the first primary, but before mid-month. I can no longer count her as second tier. she has lead Biden in 2 of the last five polls, and trailed him within MOE on a third one. she is now a top tier candidate!
Sanders is also up slightly. he only trails Biden by 10%, now. he is alone on the second tier.
and back in the distance, Yang and Buttigeig are also up, but only slightly. edit: and no candidate other than Warren, Biden, and Sanders has over 6%.
edit2: Biden has never been below 26% polling average since he announced his candidacy. he is at 27% today. this is the next thing that needs to happen for this race to get interesting: Warren needs to crack that 26% number.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2019 19:31:35 GMT -5
a new poll out from the Economist has Warren +6%
this one is especially bad news for Biden, because this poll has a track record. for the last (5) weeks, it had Biden at 26%. this week, he lost 4%, Sanders lost 2%, and Warren gained 1%.
Biden's poll numbers now average 26%, which is right at the bottom for him. Warren continues to rise, and is now just 2% back at 24% average, a new campaign high. Sanders has fallen to 17%, which is really about "average" for him since May.
the third tier is still more than 10% back.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2019 21:07:55 GMT -5
Warren and Biden are now tied. Sanders all alone at 15% the rest of the pack starts at 5% and goes down from there. I am not even sure it is a 3 way race any more.......EVERYONE is losing votes to Warren.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Oct 9, 2019 21:36:03 GMT -5
Bernie needs to accept he is no longer a viable candidate and do something pro-active about that.
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