djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 8, 2020 16:07:33 GMT -5
Biden has never lead by less than 4% and is now up by 6% in head to head polls. the betting Odds had Trump as the 60% favourite earlier this year, but he fell below 50% probability on March 11th, and has not gone over 50%, yet. Biden briefly lead him on March 18th and 23rd. he was +2.5% this morning, but still trailing, 49-44%. the long, ugly 2020 presidential campaign begins today.sadly, the bolded is correct. My almost 12 year old is so happy for the mute button on tv. She's taken to counting the political commercials when we have live tv on. What's odd about it is that she's watching cooking shows. I wouldn't have thought that the campaigns would be so focused/targeted on cooking shows. weird! my 20 year old son has also taken to the cooking shows. he made these burritos last night with ricotta and other ingredients. they were amazing.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Apr 8, 2020 16:49:45 GMT -5
Quinnipiac has Biden by 8 right now. Of course we have an eternity to go (sorry folks!) and early polls are indicative of nothing down the road.
What is interesting though is that we are in the middle of a national crisis. Trump should be KILLING it right now. We've talked about Presidential approval ratings spiking during crisis on other threads here in recent days. If trump is performing well (lol) at ALL he should be ahead right now, not trailing by 8.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 8, 2020 16:53:38 GMT -5
Quinnipiac has Biden by 8 right now. Of course we have an eternity to go (sorry folks!) and early polls are indicative of nothing down the road. What is interesting though is that we are in the middle of a national crisis. Trump should be KILLING it right now. We've talked about Presidential approval ratings spiking during crisis on other threads here in recent days. If trump is performing well (lol) at ALL he should be ahead right now, not trailing by 8. the betting odds have not changed much either. that really surprised me. with his approval up, and the CV19 crisis, I expected him to be well over 50% by now. but that has not happened. instead, his numbers have barely moved.
in the long run, it might not hurt him that much. but it sure as hell won't help him.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Apr 8, 2020 16:58:28 GMT -5
Quinnipiac has Biden by 8 right now. Of course we have an eternity to go (sorry folks!) and early polls are indicative of nothing down the road. What is interesting though is that we are in the middle of a national crisis. Trump should be KILLING it right now. We've talked about Presidential approval ratings spiking during crisis on other threads here in recent days. If trump is performing well (lol) at ALL he should be ahead right now, not trailing by 8. the betting odds have not changed much either. that really surprised me. with his approval up, and the CV19 crisis, I expected him to be well over 50% by now. but that has not happened. instead, his numbers have barely moved.
in the long run, it might not hurt him that much. but it sure as hell won't help him.
Well, one thing is for sure, he has given a treasure trove (probably the biggest, bestest treasure trove ever, of any president) of stuff to use against him in the fall, from statistics and factly facts to attack ad fodder. And that ain't no Democratic Hoax!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 8, 2020 17:04:48 GMT -5
the press followed it pretty closely, so it is all but certain that it will get covered. i think the most illustrative picture of where Trump is at is right here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/in 2016, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 1.2% on election day. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% in other words, if Clinton had this kind of tailwind in 2016, she would have won by nearly 9%. do i expect that to happen? not really. but i would not be betting on Trump right now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 13, 2020 10:51:06 GMT -5
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Apr 14, 2020 0:21:35 GMT -5
I think he is getting frantic, listened to a bit of hannity at 1 and he was sure bouncing off the walls tonight. I imagine that Wis race lit them up. trump had backed the guy and he lost by 75000 votes. I don't know if they are still counting. I'm sure they are looking at that stuff hard. I also saw a poll where mcconnell may lose, finally. They became so arrogant, one like him had even ignored his constituents. That may just be his undoing this time. When the miners in Kentucky went to see him and he brushed them off then they literally had to beg to get their pensions and health care fixed, he likely turned a bunch of them off. Let's hope so, getting him out would help immensely. Kentucky did get a dem governor which surprised me.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Apr 14, 2020 7:33:05 GMT -5
OMG his latest presser was off the rails. I'm sure you've all seen the morning msn newsfeed, but here it is: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-me-president-trump-uses-pandemic-briefing-to-focus-on-himself/ar-BB12Afkk?ocid=spartandhpI think you may be right countrygirl2 , at least I hope so. Their over the top voter suppression and win at any cost tactics are finally getting shocking enough to start to disgust many more people. Add in Trump's antics and those of several cray-cray GOP consort governors (from FL, SD and OK come to mind) and they can see the naked emperors for who they are. The pain from this thing is real and is going to be real for a long time, in ways that affect health, economics, family, and on and on. These are all nightmare components for leaders that were not spot on in their reaction to the crisis. However it will be the greatest of challenges for whoever does win. Next year is going to see economic turmoil and budget pain like you read about. And who knows what else. Those in charge are going to have to effectively shepherd through all that. May God grant that it not be DJ Trump & Co.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 14, 2020 7:39:14 GMT -5
I think he is getting frantic, listened to a bit of hannity at 1 and he was sure bouncing off the walls tonight. I imagine that Wis race lit them up. trump had backed the guy and he lost by 75000 votes. I don't know if they are still counting. I'm sure they are looking at that stuff hard. I also saw a poll where mcconnell may lose, finally. They became so arrogant, one like him had even ignored his constituents. That may just be his undoing this time. When the miners in Kentucky went to see him and he brushed them off then they literally had to beg to get their pensions and health care fixed, he likely turned a bunch of them off. Let's hope so, getting him out would help immensely. Kentucky did get a dem governor which surprised me. Darn, Pat, you know I am a conservative, and even I will not listen to him. No wonder your an xiety gets out of whack. As far as Mcconnell, that is what they said in 2018 and he won. He has four years to go.......(I assume you were talking about him and Kentucky?)
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Apr 14, 2020 7:58:45 GMT -5
The pain from this thing is real and is going to be real for a long time, in ways that affect health, economics, family, and on and on. These are all nightmare components for leaders that were not spot on in their reaction to the crisis.
However it will be the greatest of challenges for whoever does win. Next year is going to see economic turmoil and budget pain like you read about. And who knows what else. Those in charge are going to have to effectively shepherd through all that. May God grant that it not be DJ Trump & Co.
If we can't get rid of trump there will be no stopping of the destruction of the US.
mcconnell is likely going to come up against Amy MGrath. She is the favorite in the primary, very qualified, lets hope she takes him out.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's Democratic opponent Amy McGrath outraised the longtime Republican senator in the first quarter of 2020 as Kentucky’s Senate race emerges as one of the most expensive battles of the election cycle.
McGrath, who has received a litany of endorsements from national Democratic figures, reported raising $12.8 million in the first three months of 2020 and ended the period with $14.7 million cash on hand. McConnell hauled in $7.5 million and finished the first quarter of the year with $14.9 million in the bank in his bid for a seventh Senate term.
Even if trump would get in again, getting rid of mcconnell might take the do nothing lock off the senate, would weaken him greatly.
and I listened to Hannity for about 15 minutes, he was crazy, attacking Hillary about what I don't even know, had her picture up. She isn't even relevant, has noone told him that?
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Post by deminmaine on Apr 14, 2020 8:16:00 GMT -5
The attacks on Hillary are just to keep the base fired up- it is a backstop action, defensive, really.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 14, 2020 9:10:22 GMT -5
I think he is getting frantic, listened to a bit of hannity at 1 and he was sure bouncing off the walls tonight. I imagine that Wis race lit them up. trump had backed the guy and he lost by 75000 votes. I don't know if they are still counting. I'm sure they are looking at that stuff hard. I also saw a poll where mcconnell may lose, finally. They became so arrogant, one like him had even ignored his constituents. That may just be his undoing this time. When the miners in Kentucky went to see him and he brushed them off then they literally had to beg to get their pensions and health care fixed, he likely turned a bunch of them off. Let's hope so, getting him out would help immensely. Kentucky did get a dem governor which surprised me. Darn, Pat, you know I am a conservative, and even I will not listen to him. No wonder your an xiety gets out of whack. As far as Mcconnell, that is what they said in 2018 and he won. He has four years to go.......(I assume you were talking about him and Kentucky?) Voters in Kentucky elected Mitch McConnell to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014. United States Senate elections in Kentucky, 2014
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jelloshots4all
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Post by jelloshots4all on Apr 14, 2020 9:55:21 GMT -5
Sanders called Biden and gave his support yesterday. Obama is scheduled to give a speech today to support Biden. The Dems are gathering all their horses for a unified front. And even before the DNC.
Now Trump will start b!tching about Obama even more!
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 14, 2020 9:59:40 GMT -5
Sanders called Biden and gave his support yesterday. Obama is scheduled to give a speech today to support Biden. The Dems are gathering all their horses for a unified front. And even before the DNC. Now Trump will start b!tching about Obama even more! They next few days will be a big ol' "Look at me, I need attention" temper tantrum.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 14, 2020 10:10:50 GMT -5
Sanders called Biden and gave his support yesterday. Obama is scheduled to give a speech today to support Biden. The Dems are gathering all their horses for a unified front. And even before the DNC. Now Trump will start b!tching about Obama even more! They next few days will be a big ol' "Look at me, I need attention" temper tantrum. LOL. that's been trump since he announced in 2015 he was running for president.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 14, 2020 10:22:54 GMT -5
They next few days will be a big ol' "Look at me, I need attention" temper tantrum. LOL. that's been trump since he announced in 2015 he was running for president. I think it goes back a lot further than that.
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 14, 2020 10:31:16 GMT -5
LOL. that's been trump since he announced in 2015 he was running for president. I think it goes back a lot further than that. It surely does - at least to his second grade in school when he gave his music teacher a black eye. I would post everything about trump since then but the mods have a thing about walls of text.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 14, 2020 10:32:24 GMT -5
I think he is getting frantic, listened to a bit of hannity at 1 and he was sure bouncing off the walls tonight. I imagine that Wis race lit them up. trump had backed the guy and he lost by 75000 votes. I don't know if they are still counting. I'm sure they are looking at that stuff hard. I also saw a poll where mcconnell may lose, finally. They became so arrogant, one like him had even ignored his constituents. That may just be his undoing this time. When the miners in Kentucky went to see him and he brushed them off then they literally had to beg to get their pensions and health care fixed, he likely turned a bunch of them off. Let's hope so, getting him out would help immensely. Kentucky did get a dem governor which surprised me. I don't think we should underestimate the importance of that. they literally did EVERYTHING to get this fucker elected, including taking it to the SCOTUS. and they got thumped.
it is not an outlier. they have pretty much got thumped every time since 2016. how they can remain optimistic about their chances in November is puzzling.
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Apr 14, 2020 10:40:50 GMT -5
I think he is getting frantic, listened to a bit of hannity at 1 and he was sure bouncing off the walls tonight. I imagine that Wis race lit them up. trump had backed the guy and he lost by 75000 votes. I don't know if they are still counting. I'm sure they are looking at that stuff hard. I also saw a poll where mcconnell may lose, finally. They became so arrogant, one like him had even ignored his constituents. That may just be his undoing this time. When the miners in Kentucky went to see him and he brushed them off then they literally had to beg to get their pensions and health care fixed, he likely turned a bunch of them off. Let's hope so, getting him out would help immensely. Kentucky did get a dem governor which surprised me. I don't think we should underestimate the importance of that. they literally did EVERYTHING to get this fucker elected, including taking it to the SCOTUS. and they got thumped.
it is not an outlier. they have pretty much got thumped every time since 2016. how they can remain optimistic about their chances in November is puzzling.
Because their only strategy at this point that has any chance of success is to lie, gaslight, lie some more, re-direct, confuse, and revise history in the hopes that enough of the IQ 98's buy into it to push them over the edge.
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Apr 14, 2020 10:41:15 GMT -5
I think that's why trump and his supporter Hannity are getting so irrational, and they are getting out there. That there are way more people unhappy and appalled, they just don't speak up like many of us do. I'm hoping there are enough to overthrow his "thinks he's king trump. We have to, that's for sure.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 14, 2020 10:53:05 GMT -5
they are going to have a lot of trouble demotivating Democrats and Independents this time, which is how they won last time. every time he says something, we get a little more pissed off.
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jelloshots4all
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Post by jelloshots4all on Apr 14, 2020 11:39:54 GMT -5
Loved Obama's choice of wording in his endorsement of Biden!! Listed characteristic that make a good Pres. None of which trump has. I can't find a video as I saw it on the news.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 22, 2020 14:33:49 GMT -5
Trump's disapproval numbers are at a post-COVID high today.
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Post by tbop77 on May 23, 2020 9:54:41 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 23, 2020 11:00:21 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 23, 2020 11:36:47 GMT -5
I guess saying 100k people have died is lying. Who knew
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 23, 2020 11:50:35 GMT -5
I guess saying 100k people have died is lying. Who knew According to them, it is. The 100k is all deaths during that time frame - even car accidents. No, that's not true. Well, then it is anyone who tested positive, even if they died in a car accident. It also included anyone who didn't test positive, but may have had it. Not true in all states. Different states have different methodologies, and there is good reason to believe some undercounted, maybe offsetting the ones that were possibly over-counted. Oh. Well I'm sure you are just a liberal patsie and 100k is way too high and this isn't really a problem. I have no statistics to prove it. But look at this meme about shark bites.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 23, 2020 15:19:20 GMT -5
The argument about cause of death is ridiculous. Let’s do a little fun exercise.
Patient with cancer, who is not actively dying, drops dead from a heart attack. What did they die from?
Same patient, now dies from a pulmonary embolism?
Lung cancer patient, gets chemotherapy, now has a low white blood count, gets a fever, turns out they have a blood stream infection, gets septic and dies?
Lung cancer patient, metastatic disease, now on hospice, dies?
Any patient but the last one due of cancer?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 23, 2020 17:42:40 GMT -5
The argument about cause of death is ridiculous. Let’s do a little fun exercise. Patient with cancer, who is not actively dying, drops dead from a heart attack. What did they die from? Same patient, now dies from a pulmonary embolism? Lung cancer patient, gets chemotherapy, now has a low white blood count, gets a fever, turns out they have a blood stream infection, gets septic and dies? Lung cancer patient, metastatic disease, now on hospice, dies? Any patient but the last one due of cancer? They all died from incompetence.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on May 24, 2020 16:22:24 GMT -5
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