This is for posters who think Republicans will not back him

[Value Buy]

in 2020. Some posters have had thoughts about Republicans who voted for him in 2016 will not do the same in 2020, should read this New Hampshire Republican poll.
Only 35% of Republicans voted for him in the primary. Now look at the percentage that will vote for him in 2020.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-voters-in-new-hampshire-back-trump/ar-AABiUdo?li=BBnb7Kz

(Trump could not fit in the title)

[Rukh O'Rorke]

34% of GOP voters would like him to face a primary challenge?

You think that's good?

[Value Buy]

May 13, 2019 12:45:46 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

34% of GOP voters would like him to face a primary challenge?

You think that's good?

And he only won the primary with 35% of the vote and now 70% are welling to return him to the WH.

[oped]

Is that 70% of the same size group?

[steff]

He's going to need more than his base & gullible GOP voters.   Independents that voted for him last time won't be as on board this time. 

[happyhoix]

You mean only 35% of the GOP voters voted for him in the 2016 when the primary field was chock full of GOP POTUS candidates?

So if Biden gets 35% of the New Hampshire Dem primary, do you expect only 35% of the New Hampshire dems will vote for Biden in the general election? Who will the other 65% of the New Hampshire Dems vote for - Trump?

[swamp]

May 13, 2019 12:58:42 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

May 13, 2019 12:45:46 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

34% of GOP voters would like him to face a primary challenge?

You think that's good?

And he only won the primary with 35% of the vote and now 70% are welling to return him to the WH.

are the illegal aliens counted in that 105% of the voting public? 

[swamp]

May 13, 2019 13:03:25 GMT -5 oped said:

Is that 70% of the same size group?

And are these 70% (or 65%) likely to vote? 

[billisonboard]

Here is the story directly from Monmouth: link. There is a link to a pdf with all the details.

[djAdvocate]

May 13, 2019 12:23:00 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

in 2020.

of course they will.

what percent of the electorate is Republican? 30%?

[happyhoix]

May 13, 2019 17:13:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 13, 2019 12:23:00 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

in 2020.

of course they will.

what percent of the electorate is Republican? 30%?

A more interesting question is 'what percent of the electorate is Republican and willing to vote for Trump?

I can't imagine George Conway and his buddies are voting for Trump, and I'm guessing a big chunk of independent voters will steer clear.

So yes, I think if you go with the hard core Trumpettes who will vote for him, that's 30%. Some other percentage will just stay home rather than vote for either Trump or the Dem.

[djAdvocate]

May 13, 2019 18:30:06 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

May 13, 2019 17:13:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

of course they will.

what percent of the electorate is Republican? 30%?

A more interesting question is 'what percent of the electorate is Republican and willing to vote for Trump?

I can't imagine George Conway and his buddies are voting for Trump, and I'm guessing a big chunk of independent voters will steer clear.

So yes, I think if you go with the hard core Trumpettes who will vote for him, that's 30%. Some other percentage will just stay home rather than vote for either Trump or the Dem.

right now, i would guess 80-90%.

that gives him about 1/4 of the population.

if he gets HALF the independents, he will WIN.

i wouldn't count on that, if i were him.

[countrygirl2]

I don't know the way its going he may lose the farm vote.  Hubs said that isn't enough to matter, but yes in those states they are staunch repub voters.  As they bankrupt them, that might change, but who knows. I just hope people come to their senses, what in gods name is wrong with them.

[djAdvocate]

here is the thing.

I think that even if he was impeached they would vote for him.

they are that far gone.

I would not count on them for turning against Trump.

having said that, there IS some hope. my hope is that they will feel about him in 2020 the way Democrats felt about Clinton.

[happyhoix]

May 13, 2019 20:02:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

here is the thing.

I think that even if he was impeached they would vote for him.

they are that far gone.

I would not count on them for turning against Trump.

having said that, there IS some hope. my hope is that they will feel about him in 2020 the way Democrats felt about Clinton.

Trump squeezed through with independents and angry Sanders dems the last time. "Squeezed through" in that he actually lost the popular vote and won due to the electoral college.

A popular president with a strong economy would sail through to a second term. A president only popular with 40% of the voting public, one who likes to alienate 'those' people who don't support him, who might fuck up things with his trade war? We'll see.

[happyhoix]

I think the ethical Republicans should consider what Trump would do if he got re-elected and was no longer obligated to cultivate even the 40% of the population that is his current base.

He wouldn't even pretend the changes he's making are populist - he would be creating a utopia for the 1% billionaire class, fuck the rest of us and fuck the constitution. As he's said in the past, he can't give two shits about the future of the country because 'he won't be there anymore.'

That should give any ethical person a reason to pause.

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2019 6:48:41 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

May 13, 2019 20:02:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

here is the thing.

I think that even if he was impeached they would vote for him.

they are that far gone.

I would not count on them for turning against Trump.

having said that, there IS some hope. my hope is that they will feel about him in 2020 the way Democrats felt about Clinton.

Trump squeezed through with independents and angry Sanders dems the last time. "Squeezed through" in that he actually lost the popular vote and won due to the electoral college.

A popular president with a strong economy would sail through to a second term. A president only popular with 40% of the voting public, one who likes to alienate 'those' people who don't support him, who might fuck up things with his trade war? We'll see.

at this point in his tenure, Trump's unpopularity is only eclipsed by Jimmy Carter's.

and we all know how well it worked out for him.

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2019 7:07:52 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I think the ethical Republicans should consider what Trump would do if he got re-elected and was no longer obligated to cultivate even the 40% of the population that is his current base.

He wouldn't even pretend the changes he's making are populist - he would be creating a utopia for the 1% billionaire class, fuck the rest of us and fuck the constitution. As he's said in the past, he can't give two shits about the future of the country because 'he won't be there anymore.'

That should give any ethical person a reason to pause.

given my experience on this board, where I have pointed out that he has not done ONE SINGLE POPULIST THING he promised, and those that voted for him universally say they will vote for him again, I am thinking that it will be very difficult to turn them.

[happyhoix]

Do we need to turn them, or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time?

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2019 10:01:50 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Do we need to turn them, or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time?

I am thinking the latter.

for me, it comes down to a question of motivation.

there are a hundred things that Trump has done to piss his opponents off, but very little he has done to endear his supporters.

[happyhoix]

May 14, 2019 10:10:23 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 14, 2019 10:01:50 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Do we need to turn them, or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time?

I am thinking the latter.

for me, it comes down to a question of motivation.

there are a hundred things that Trump has done to piss his opponents off, but very little he has done to endear his supporters.

I think it's why he's casting around for another fear based platform to run on. Looks like it might be fear of becoming a socialist nightmare just like Venezuela.  (Don't know if he could go back to his 'brown hordes flooding over the border' spiel because not only has he not been able to fix any of it, the problem has gotten worse during his tenure).

If he can't run on a platform of everyone being so much richer, and our fabulous new infrastructure and our great and cheap health plans, or the triumphant wall, or our shrunken deficit, he's going to have to come up with some really scary hobgoblins to frighten the gullible into voting for him again.

 

[phil5185]

'''given my experience on this board, where I have pointed out that he has not done ONE SINGLE POPULIST THING he promised, and those that voted for him universally say they will vote for him again, I am thinking that it will be very difficult to turn them.'''

When you google 'populist things that Trump failed to deliver', you get only three.   1. Wall,  2. Mexican money to pay for wall, and 3. failure to cancel Obamacare.  And all three were killed by the "We hate Trump" Congressional Democratic Obstructionists.    So we (republicans) aren't holding Trump responsible for them.  Maybe he can give those 3 another go during his second term?

"" or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time? ""

I voted for JFK in 1960 and I've never missed an election since. So I'm guessing that the 'stay at home' thing won't work. 

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2019 10:37:41 GMT -5 phil5185 said:

'''given my experience on this board, where I have pointed out that he has not done ONE SINGLE POPULIST THING he promised, and those that voted for him universally say they will vote for him again, I am thinking that it will be very difficult to turn them.'''

When you google 'populist things that Trump failed to deliver', you get only three.   1. Wall,  2. Mexican money to pay for wall, and 3. failure to cancel Obamacare. 

no. none of those are populist things.

here are some of the populist promises:

1) “If we negotiated the price of drugs, Joe, we’d save $300 billion a year,”

2) $1T infrastructure project to repair the nation's federal road system

3) Trump promised over and over to pull out of Nafta and renegotiate a much better deal.

4) Trump also repeatedly promised universal health care.

5) "Draining The Swamp" was accompanied by specific proposals, none of which he has done.

6) Trump also promised, over and over and over again, to raise taxes on the rich, including on himself. “It’s going to cost me a fortune, which is actually true,” he said.

none of these things were done, Phil.  apart from the NAFTA thing, none of these were even ATTEMPTED.

the wall is not POPULIST.  it is JINGOIST. 

if you want to check the difference between the two, Sanders is also a populist.  find the proposals that he and Trump BOTH made, and you will know what I am referring to.

[tbop77]

May 14, 2019 10:37:41 GMT -5 phil5185 said:

'''given my experience on this board, where I have pointed out that he has not done ONE SINGLE POPULIST THING he promised, and those that voted for him universally say they will vote for him again, I am thinking that it will be very difficult to turn them.'''

When you google 'populist things that Trump failed to deliver', you get only three.   1. Wall,  2. Mexican money to pay for wall, and 3. failure to cancel Obamacare.  And all three were killed by the "We hate Trump" Congressional Democratic Obstructionists.    So we (republicans) aren't holding Trump responsible for them.  Maybe he can give those 3 another go during his second term?

"" or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time? ""

I voted for JFK in 1960 and I've never missed an election since. So I'm guessing that the 'stay at home' thing won't work. 

Not real sure how you can blame Democrats for his big signature campaign promise of Mexico paying for the wall not happening? Can you explain that one?

RE: Obamacare

Wouldn't the best deal maker of all time been able to keep that promise, which by the way was to REPEAL AND REPLACE. Maybe if he had come up with anything to replace it with, it would have happened. But , healthcare is hard, right?

[happyhoix]

May 14, 2019 10:37:41 GMT -5 phil5185 said:

'''given my experience on this board, where I have pointed out that he has not done ONE SINGLE POPULIST THING he promised, and those that voted for him universally say they will vote for him again, I am thinking that it will be very difficult to turn them.'''

When you google 'populist things that Trump failed to deliver', you get only three.   1. Wall,  2. Mexican money to pay for wall, and 3. failure to cancel Obamacare.  And all three were killed by the "We hate Trump" Congressional Democratic Obstructionists.    So we (republicans) aren't holding Trump responsible for them.  Maybe he can give those 3 another go during his second term?

"" or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time? ""

I voted for JFK in 1960 and I've never missed an election since. So I'm guessing that the 'stay at home' thing won't work. 

YOU may not be holding Trump responsible for things you think were caused by the Dems, but there are a lot of voters who vote on how well the candidate has done while in office. Period. Trump has come through on very few campaign promises, and now sounds like all the other blow hard politicians who talk but can't produce.

Trump was supposed to drain the swamp and make Washington work again. He didn't even give up tweeting in favor of being more presidential, or release his tax returns - two things he promised over and over he would do, during his campaign. He's not just a failure, he's a loud mouthed, drunk uncle embarrassment.

[hurley1980]

May 14, 2019 10:37:41 GMT -5 phil5185 said:

'''given my experience on this board, where I have pointed out that he has not done ONE SINGLE POPULIST THING he promised, and those that voted for him universally say they will vote for him again, I am thinking that it will be very difficult to turn them.'''

When you google 'populist things that Trump failed to deliver', you get only three.   1. Wall,  2. Mexican money to pay for wall, and 3. failure to cancel Obamacare.  And all three were killed by the "We hate Trump" Congressional Democratic Obstructionists.    So we (republicans) aren't holding Trump responsible for them.  Maybe he can give those 3 another go during his second term?

"" or do they just need to be disgruntled enough that they stay home this time? ""

I voted for JFK in 1960 and I've never missed an election since. So I'm guessing that the 'stay at home' thing won't work. 

These were all killed before the democrats regained the house, if I am remembering correctly.  Stop blaming democrats because your president can't get shit done!

[thyme4change]

It doesn't really matter what 70% of Republicans do. It matters what several small groups of people in PA, MI, WI and OH do. The rest of us may be irrelevant...again.

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2019 13:19:54 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

It doesn't really matter what 70% of Republicans do. It matters what several small groups of people in PA, MI, WI and OH do. The rest of us may be irrelevant...again.

ironically, if he gets creamed, it matters what we ALL do.

otherwise, you are precisely right.