Recovery that you can believe in....or maybe not

[stayput]

Home prices falling fatser in biggest U.S. cities
By JANNA HERRON AP Real Estate Writer
Posted: 12/28/2010 11:06:28 AM PST


NEW YORK -- Home prices are dropping in the nation's largest cities and are expected to keep falling next year, as fewer people purchase homes and millions of foreclosures come on to the market.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday fell 1.3 percent in October from September.

All cities recorded monthly price declines. The last time that happened was in Feb. 2009.

Atlanta recorded the largest decline. Prices there fell 2.9 percent from a month earlier. Home prices in Washington dropped 0.2 percent in October, the second monthly decline after five straight increases.

Home prices in Dallas, Portland, Ore., Charlotte, N.C., Tampa, Fla. and Denver have fallen for four straight months.

The 20-city index has risen 4.4 percent from their April 2009 bottom. But it remains 29.6 percent below its July 2006 peak.

This year is on pace to finish as the worst for home sales in more than a decade. High unemployment and tight credit have kept people from buying homes, despite some of the lowest mortgage rates in decades.

Government tax credits gave the ailing industry a boost this spring. But they expired in April, and in recent months, home prices have begun to dip again.

Millions of foreclosures are forcing home prices down. Many people are holding off on making purchases because they fear the market hasn't bottomed out, analysts say.

Foreclosures likely will remain high for


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the next two years, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

Several lenders temporarily halted action after evidence surfaced that some used flawed foreclosure documents to take people's homes. Some banks have resumed foreclosures at a more measured pace.

Also, the number of homeowners who owe more than their house is worth is expected to remain high. They are more likely to default if they run into trouble, Zandi said. Homeowners who have equity can sell their homes if they face a job loss, divorce, or illness that makes it impossible for them to pay their mortgage.

And more people might be less inclined to buy now that mortgage rates are rising again. In the last month, rates on fixed mortgages have surged more than a half-point to near 5 percent.

Most experts expect the declines to continue through mid-year with prices on average to lose another 5 percent to 10 percent. The worst price drops will come from cities with a struggling economy and the highest foreclosure rates, while those with better job growth will fare better.

Home prices have declined in 18 of the 20 cities in the past year.

[reformeddaytrader]

The movement raises questions about what, if anything, the federal government should do. Blitzer said another homebuyer tax credit would be a bad idea.

But the Obama administration is urging bailed-out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do more for Americans who owe more than their homes are worth - an estimated one in five borrowers. The Treasury Department wants Fannie and Freddie to lower the principal on such underwater mortgages and roll them into a Federal Housing Administration program to get their monthly payments down.

Despite the concern that this could cause more losses at the troubled entities, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said the plan could improve the overall housing market by reducing the number of homeowners defaulting on their loans.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/12/28/home-prices-fall-largest-cities-raising-possibility-housing-double-dip/

[stayput]

Home Prices Fall in Largest Cities, Raising Possibility of Housing 'Double-Dip'

Published December 28, 2010
| FoxNews.com
Print Email Share Comments (345) Text Size

AP2010

In this Nov. 4, photo, an open house sign is seen on the front lawn of a home for sale in Los Angeles. Home prices are dropping in the nation's largest cities and are expected to fall through next year, with the worst declines coming in areas with high numbers of foreclosures.
The anemic housing market continues to drag the economy down, with new data showing home prices in America's biggest cities on a downward trend which could last through next year.

One analyst said the possibility of a "double-dip" downturn in the housing market is becoming more likely.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, released Tuesday, showed home prices falling 1.3 percent from September to October. For the first time since February 2009, every city on the list marked a decline in that period.

The dismal real estate news comes as the Conference Board shows consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in December, in part reflecting concern about the availability of jobs.

Though incomes and personal spending have been rising modestly, unemployment edged toward 10 percent last month in a trend that could continue into next year as more people start looking for work. To boot, gas prices are on the rise, topping $3 a gallon on average over the past week.

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David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee for Standard & Poor's, told FoxNews.com there is a "very strong possibility" of the housing market descending into a double-dip. Though definitions of what that could look like are muddy, Blitzer said that if home prices fall below their April 2009 low, that would be a sure sign that the market had definitively gone back into decline. Though the 20-city index has risen 4.4 percent above that 2009 bottom, the numbers have been declining for three consecutive months.

"Anybody who says housing is out of the woods ... they're not looking at these numbers," Blitzer said. "There's clearly a lot of weakness."

He said the expiration of the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers has something to do with the trend -- he said that federal "gimmick" essentially stole business from the future, and so the market is correcting itself. But he said consumer confidence and anxiety over jobs plays another big factor, as does the continuing trouble prospective homebuyers have in securing loans.

Meanwhile, millions of foreclosures are forcing home prices down while people sit on the sidelines for fear that the bottom has not yet been touched.

Most experts expect the declines to continue through mid-year with prices on average to lose another 5 to 10 percent. The worst drops are coming in cities with the highest foreclosures.

In the latest figures, Atlanta recorded the biggest drop, with prices falling 2.9 percent from a month earlier.

The movement raises questions about what, if anything, the federal government should do. Blitzer said another homebuyer tax credit would be a bad idea.

But the Obama administration is urging bailed-out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do more for Americans who owe more than their homes are worth - an estimated one in five borrowers. The Treasury Department wants Fannie and Freddie to lower the principal on such underwater mortgages and roll them into a Federal Housing Administration program to get their monthly payments down.

Despite the concern that this could cause more losses at the troubled entities, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said the plan could improve the overall housing market by reducing the number of homeowners defaulting on their loans.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[reformeddaytrader]

FHFA sees improvement in seriously delinquent Fannie and Freddie mortgages, too. Loans in the 60-plus-day delinquency bucket dropped for the third-straight quarter, by 6.8% -- or 109,700 loans to roughly 1.5 million loans.

*Fannie and Freddie saw decent performance in the 3Q in another government anti-foreclosure program, the Home Affordable Refinance Program, which lets borrowers refinance and reduce monthly payments at loan-to-value ratios up to 125%. Fannie and Freddie servicers put 45,000 loans through HARP in September alone, up 55% from the previous month.

*That’s the highest total of any month since the program began in March 2009. Overall, HARP refinancings of Fannie and Freddie loans rose 26% in 3d quarter to 479,900.

Other bullet points:

- More than half of the loan modifications in the third quarter lowered borrowers’ monthly payments by over 30%.

- The total number of HAMP permanent modifications is now nearly 260,000.

- Loans modified in the last three quarters are “performing substantially better 3 months after modification, compared to loans modified in earlier periods.”

Read the full report: www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/19608/3Q_Foreclosure_Prev_Release.pdf

[stayput]

Hurray! We have been granted the pleasure to get hosed again by both Freddie and Fannie by Nobama. You lucky Liberals.

[warsaw (banned)]

The gift that keeps on giving- the Bush/Pub Deregulation and enforcement cut mortgage crisis. Thanks also to Pub obstruction of measures that could have stopped this- Well at least they got reelected...Pffffft!!

[Deleted]

Here's my question for the posters on this thread. First off place say if you live in what you consider a LCOL or a HCOL area? Then was the market "hot" in the last 10 years? Lastly do you feel that you housing costs where you live are in line with what you earn?
Those facts might stimulate some discussion.

As for me. LCOL area - Market hot 3 years ago - I would say that housing cost here is in line with pay in the area.

[stayput]

As for me. LCOL area - Market hot 3 years ago - I would say that housing cost here is in line with pay in the area.

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=politics&action=display&thread=555#ixzz19SZVeAfw

Based on what "factual" data. No spin. No hype. Just the facts.

[deziloooooo]

Want a good value, housing..come to Florida...still good depressed values...jobs not so good but if one is thinking a better winter then 20 " of snow, come on down.

[stayput]

Been there done that. I love having all four seasons.

[ugonow]

What little relief we have had from Obama's recession has been accomplished by the speculation of Republicans gaining more power. Otherwise,all is the same as it was ,if not worse than when he first soiled the seat. The so called recovery is a manufactured state run media hoax.It is only in peoples minds.The economy is in shambles and there is no recovery to speak of until republicans get the wheel back and fix this mess the libs created.

[bean29]

ugonow,

I would have to admit that I often wonder if the recovery is a fabrication...but for us our income is up. DH's buiness grew 20% last year. If and when the republicans "get the wheel back" nothing will change. What we have now is what the lobyists are paying for. It doesn't matter which party is in charge.

[traelin0]

Dec 29, 2010 10:41:19 GMT -5 bean29 said:

ugonow,

I would have to admit that I often wonder if the recovery is a fabrication...but for us our income is up. DH's buiness grew 20% last year. If and when the republicans "get the wheel back" nothing will change. What we have now is what the lobyists are paying for. It doesn't matter which party is in charge.

Bingo, and quoted for truth (QFT).

[stayput]

We are way past placing blame. What we need to know is who has the balls to make all of the hard choices to get us on an actual recovery.

[cs]

We won't have a recovery until corporations pay taxes. I'm totally amazed by how self-destructive this country is right now: the Pres of the Natl Chamber of Commerce advocates out-sourcing jobs, Repub Senators don't want to extend unemployment, corporations import workers for job... But business wants people to buy. How?
We need to quit listening to fools and regain our common sense. If your neighbor is in trouble, you're next.

[stayput]

cs, what you advocate (taxes) can best be likened to a group of people in a lifeboat, out in the middle of the ocean as a hurricane heads straight for you. Your boat is tossed to and fro, water crashing both against the sides and into the boat itself. As your boat fills, you come up with the idea of drilling holes in the bottom of the boat so as to let the water drain out. In a panic people sometimes suggest some pretty silly things.

[stats45]

The economic recovery is underway, but I think that people are often talking about employment recovery. Employment usually lags GDP growth after a recession, but with a global economy, productivity gains, and uncertainty about regulations, not many people expect hiring to take off.

The US economy has to add over 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with new entrants in the labor force. These are jobs needed to keep up with population demands.

To hit 6% unemployment in 2020, the US economy would have to add 200,000 jobs a month. To hit 6% unemployment in 2016, the US economy would have to add 250,000 jobs a month. To hit 6% unemployment in 2014, the US economy would have to add 300,000 jobs a month.

[stayput]

The economic recovery is underway, but I think that people are often talking about employment recovery. Employment usually lags GDP growth after a recession
Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=politics&action=display&thread=555#ixzz19Z1I9Dlt

This is the same tire argument of every Liberal out there who has been proven to be wrong on every point concerning the economy as well as the will of the people.

You obviously didn't bother to read the post that I put up on the housing bust expected for this coming year, or looked at the cost of food, energy, or any of the other indicators that ALL say we are headed towards total insolvency.

Stop being a Sheep. Open your eyes to the coming reality. It's all right there if you just bother to examine it!

[anonymous888]

Well I have always said, "Obama promised change, things going from BAD to WORSE is still CHANGE !!!"

[stayput]

things going from BAD to WORSE is still CHANGE !!!"

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=politics&action=display&thread=555#ixzz19ZBfAuhu

True. Unfortunately most of his mindless followers are going to see the total collapse of the economy before they will actually believe it. "Change that you can believe in", and yet none of them will still believe it.

[dancinmama]

For those who voted for Obama, how's that hope and change thing working out for ya? I sure hope that for everyone's sake, that the Repubs get some balls and are SERIOUS about doing something about all the spending. Time will tell.

[stayput]

You are being lied to by those in Washington when the average person cannot easily discern the facts. You are lying to yourself when you refuse to look at the facts.

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=politics&action=display&thread=128&page=56#ixzz19ZYxvewm

[Sammy]

Wow, I thought a gaggle of bald eagles landed on the boards, but lo and behold it's Stay Put.

[floridayankee]

Dec 29, 2010 19:06:28 GMT -5 @cs said:

We won't have a recovery until corporations pay taxes.

Our state liquor taxes alone were $1.4 million on November sales. An educated guess will put our December taxes somewhere north of 1.6 million. How much more would you like us to pay? Rather, I should ask how much more do you want to pay? Do you honestly believe that taxes paid by a corporation come out of the owner's pocket?

the Pres of the Natl Chamber of Commerce advocates out-sourcing jobs, Repub Senators don't want to extend unemployment, corporations import workers for job... But business wants people to buy. How?

Let me guess...you have no reason why, right?

lmao....do the math to see how that'll work out.

[floridayankee]

Dec 28, 2010 20:41:19 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

...jobs not so good but if one is thinking a better winter then 20 " of snow, come on down.

Jobs are fine.....pay is comparable with RI, but the COL is lower...and FL is full. It must be avoided at all costs!!

Been there done that. I love having all four seasons.

four seasons? Is that all you got? We have 5 seasons here in FL....

• drought season...sometimes called "don’t start a fire"season
  
• Tourist season
  
• hurricane season
  
• fear of frost season
  
• harvest season
  

[stayput]

Faber: Long-Term US Treasurys Are 'Suicidal Investment'
Thursday, 30 Dec 2010 03:17 PM Article Font Size

Marc Faber, who advised investors to buy U.S. stocks in March 2009 as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began a rally of as much as 86 percent, said U.S. Treasurys are a "suicidal" investment.

Government bonds are likely to decline, said Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report. After bottoming in December 2008, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 3.9859 percent in April on government measures to stimulate the economy. Concern about a second recession in three years sent yields lower through October.

“This is a suicidal investment,” Faber said in a telephone interview from St. Moritz, Switzerland. “Over time, interest rates on U.S. Treasurys will go up. Investors will gradually understand that the Federal Reserve wants to have negative real interest rates. The worst investment is in U.S. long-term bonds.”





Read more: Faber: Long-Term US Treasurys Are 'Suicidal Investment'

www.moneynews.com/Headline/marc-Faber-Long-Term-US/2010/12/30/id/381495?...

[stayput]

Dec 30, 2010 13:30:10 GMT -5 floridayankee said:

Dec 28, 2010 20:41:19 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

...jobs not so good but if one is thinking a better winter then 20 " of snow, come on down.

Jobs are fine.....pay is comparable with RI, but the COL is lower...and FL is full. It must be avoided at all costs!!

Been there done that. I love having all four seasons.

four seasons? Is that all you got? We have 5 seasons here in FL....

• drought season...sometimes called "don’t start a fire"season
  
• Tourist season
  
• hurricane season
  
• fear of frost season
  
• harvest season
  

You forgot the "Snowbird" season.

[deziloooooo]

Thats our high season..they bring money

[floridayankee]

Dec 31, 2010 1:52:22 GMT -5 @stayput said:

You forgot the "Snowbird" season.

I used tourist season as to not "offend" any of our blue nosed visitors.

I just wish they'd quit bringing this cold stuff with them when they come though.

[floridayankee]

Dec 31, 2010 4:03:30 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

Thats our high season..they bring money

I saw a bumper sticker once....

Happiness is a north bound snowbird with an empty wallet