Will Iraq be a Western Style Democracy?

[marshabar1]

Iraqi prime minister: U.S. troop departure by end of 2011 'sealed'
By Erika Niedowski - 12/28/10 08:44 AM ET

The Iraqi prime minister says U.S. troops must leave that country, as planned, by the end of next year.

"The last American soldier will leave Iraq" as agreed, Nouri al-Maliki said in an extensive interview with The Wall Street Journal. "This agreement is not subject to extension, not subject to alteration. It is sealed."

He said Iraqi forces — and the newly seated government — are prepared to handle the country's own security.

thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/135237-iraqi-prime-minister-us-forces-must-leave-by-end-of-2011

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Anybody reading up on conditions in the country? Anyone know soldiers there?

[floridayankee]

Dec 28, 2010 14:26:27 GMT -5 @marshabar1 said:

Anybody reading up on conditions in the country? Anyone know soldiers there?

Sorry...can't help you there. All of those that I know are heading to or from the Afghan sandbox.

My prediction is that once the troops leave, Iraq will quickly return to the corrupt dictatorship it was in when we got there. If democracy does not go down easily, Al Qaeda or other power hungry terrorists will start bombing the crap out of the innocent civilians, completely undermining the Iraqi citizens confidence in their new government's ability to keep them safe. The citizens will revolt against their ineffective government and essentially gift wrap and deliver it to terrorist control.

I predict this for no real reason other than a gut feeling. One that I hope is wrong.

[marshabar1]

I'll start reading up. I do have one friend serving at the Contingency Operating Base Adder near Abraham's house at UR. I guess the consensus among those he knows pretty much squares with your gut. The men there are just accounting for equipment and sending it home.

My one and only hope is that the young children who had prolonged contact with American soldiers will have formed a new vision of what life can be.

[marshabar1]

Lieutenant General Babaker Zerbari, the chief of staff of Iraq's armed forces, has said his country's army will not be ready to assume control over security until 2020 and that US troops should stay until then.

But US officials say there is no chance the United States will deviate from its planned withdrawal of combat troops by the end of this month.

Even Iraqi military officials disagree about the country's readiness.

Al Jazeera's Omar al-Saleh reports from Baghdad.

english.aljazeera.net/video/2010812184553723625.html

Iraq finally, nine months after the election, approves a government.

www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1221/breaking21.html



Meanwhile

THOUSANDS OF Baghdad Christians have been forced to flee militant attacks after the siege at a Catholic cathedral in the city in October, the United Nations said yesterday.

The UN High Commission For Refugees said at least 1,000 families had fled Baghdad and Mosul since September 1st for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq. A further 133 families had registered with the organisation in Syria, as had 109 individuals in Jordan.

Fr Hanna, the leading Assyrian Catholic priest in Beirut, said that 450 recently arrived families had contacted with his office and plan to ask the UN for help.

The mass movement of Iraq’s Christians, the remnants of which make up one of the most ancient communities in the Middle East, was sparked by the brutal siege in a Baghdad Assyrian Catholic cathedral on October 31st, which left at least 58 people dead and about 100 injured.

Since then, Christian families have been increasingly targeted in their homes, among them survivors of the church massacre. The violence is being driven by al-Qaeda and its affiliates and is being seen as an attempt to ignite sectarian chaos after repeated attempts to lure Iraq’s Shias back into battle had failed.

www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/1218/1224285835779.html?via=rel

[traelin0]

Iraq will become a Western-style democracy in much the same manner as Don Quixote conquered windmills...err I mean Saudi Arabia became a Western-style democracy.

[marshabar1]

Well still, maybe hope in the children exposed to American soldiers.

www.operationiraqichildren.org/

[deziloooooo]

Maliki is not happy that the Sunnis are sharing power, or is it the shia, always get them mixed up.
Granted that you would think that they would be looking at us as freinds , but the old Bathest are up set because they are out of power, the Iraquis in general are unhappy because so many of them, not just the military but the civilians and children who were killed , children because of our blockade even though it was their own leaders failure to provide the food and medicines to his own people and our complete lack of fore site in waht to do after he was over thrown, and the complete breakdon and looting that happened then.
The only ones in favor of us are the Kurds and I wonder if there are plans to go to their aid if the central government turn on them after we are gone.

[stats45]

No.

One of the parts of the war justification that made me the most frustrated was the idea that the United States could export democracy by removing an undemocratic leader. There was no reasonable talk about democratic institutions, legal systems, or cultural and religious values.

Democracies are extremely rare in world history and even in the West stable, nation-state democracies only been around for the last century or so.

[marshabar1]

Germany and Japan are two examples of nations that profited from the assistance provided by the United States. It can happen but there needs to be a cultural basis and a willingness to embrace Western civilization and the future. I'm afraid that just doesn't exist within Islam. I keep hoping that some of the Iraqi children have been seeded with a new vision. There are plenty of young Muslims in Iran who have a desire to live in harmony in this world.

edit: I guess one can't say a desire to embrace Western civilization and the future doesn't exist in Islam. It certainly existed in Turkey and probably still does under the surface, and then there are those educated young people in Iran.

[stats45]

Germany was a democratic republic before the US was involved. It was broken from WWI, but it had a strong tradition of civil law, democratic institutions, and anindustrial economy. Japan has a slightly different economy due to its use of business cartels, but it consciously copied Western institutions before WWII (including German civil law).

The differences are enormous. The US did provide security and money for rebuilding for these countries, not a wholesale transformation of their societies.

Traditional Muslim societies are a problem, though I agree that there is a huge difference between (for example) Yemen and Turkey. Secularized countries nearly always have less barriers to democratization.

[traelin0]

I guess I just don't care what govt. Iraq decides to implement. I'm not Iraqi and alliances tend to bring blowback. Although I guess I should care, because DC seems hell-bent on creating enemies wherever it goes...

If Dubya really believed he could export democracy, he suffered from hubris. Expensive hubris I might add. But I don't believe that was his intent. To me, the intent is obvious. Our foreign policy for the last 40 years or so has revolved around oil.

[deziloooooo]

What was funny/strange/made no sense in the real world.. in his saying we are bringing Democracy to the region..The region is filled with monarchies , absolute, who are the ones who govern, no legislatures with clout for the most part, and those monarchies, Saudi's, Emerites, Kuwait...are our friends..whether for protection or what ever..basically friendly toward us and if there was democratic elections..the chance of their staying in power is remote..the ones gaining power, the fundamentalist, and for the most part not friendly toward us.
Some thing like happened in the last election with the Palastinians..we pushed it ..Hamas in control of Gaza and the moderates in the West Bank..and they are not really in power legitimatly..believe their term of office has expired..
Some times you can wish for the wrong thing and when it comes to pass..watch out, as Reilly said, {William Bendex }.."What a revolting developement this is ".

[workpublic]

"Will Iraq be a Western Style Democracy?"

it will take them a while to come up to speed, but IMHO they should be just as corrupt and evil as the "western" democracies.

[Deleted]

Well, with things as unsettled as they now are, and they want us out NOW-- I would guess it is just a matter of time before they go right back where they were. I hear stories about regression, say for women, already. Time will tell, but I am not sure a few years can change an ancient society, especially if it does not want to be changed.

[wyouser]

an interesting mixture..Artificial borders created after WWI by England and France out of the carcas of the Ottoman Empire. A mixture of Arabs and Kurds. Then there is the religious division between the arabs of sheites and Sunnis. Then throw in the tribal differences (there are 80 different tribes just among the Sunnis). A difficult job creating a democracy.

[steff]

Why do we assume that every country must run exactly like ours? It's not our place to force other countries to adhere to our standards just because we think our way is the only way.

[wyouser]

I concur, but why must a minority abroad (100million radicals out of a billion) try to impose their standards on us? this cuts both ways

[steff]

What other govt (not people, but govt) is trying to impose their version of democracy on us? There is a difference between people who immigrate and retain their culture and a govt deciding that another country should be forced to live by our standard of democracy.

[wyouser]

officially? No other govvernment...but indirectly?? through funding? People who immigrate and retain their culture ? who dont assimulate? Look at England. Look at Germany. Berlin has an immigrant group that has been there for 3 generation that refuses to learn German and integrate into German society. They have high unemployment . There is a slow movement to get Sharia law accepted . Is this not an effort to force another standard on an established democracy?

[steff]

But we aren't discussing Germany or England. Those countries have their laws and ideals that don't necessarily fall into line with ours. I could easily point out that England has hate speech laws that would never fly here.

The question was "what right do WE have to force Iraq to become a democracy just like ours?"

[summer79]

I believe the answer to that question is we have no right to dictate what kind of government any other country should put in place. I can hardly even believe that our government has the audacity to tell others how to live considering we are currently on the verge of economic colapse. It seems that the Middle East has had political unrest since the beginning of time and I dont see that changing any time in the near future.