M3 is now above the close for 2009 and 2010

[bimetalaupt]

For the first time in over 27 months .. m3 has an absolute growth in real terms.. up only about 16 billion dollars from 12/31/2009 and it took how many QE2 to do it... Like Major $150 increase in M1 and $450 increase in M2 ;D!!! but Ben B. has finally increased M3!!!

M3 is the driver for loans and has a negative 84.6% correlation with interest on the 30 year T-Bond with None-m2-m3.. This is good for loans.. Keep up the good work Ben...

Just a thought,
Bi metal Au Pt

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

So it's true the recovery is on. Nice one B!

[bimetalaupt]

Mar 26, 2011 1:59:58 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

So it's true the recovery is on. Nice one B!

A++,
I am hoping the long term trend in M3 growth curve will drive year over year M3 growth to 5%..

We could see 3.5% growth.. With a little help from Flow5 "Volatility of Translation" or Ability to Transact with cash assets.. growth !! we could see 3.9% as Credit Swiss projects. The problem is we have too many too big houses.. Generation Y do not want that large of a house.. It is a lot of work to keep up and the cost a lot of money in Taxes ...We just do not have seven children and Grandmother to take care of like they did in 1900 census.. It is hard to find an Au Pair for the seven children.

Just a thought,
Bruce

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's about time we see some real growth. At least it has some stability now.

That's true about the large houses. We need to start a company that buys these mansions, and turn them into duplexes. There should be no problem pressuring for re zoning R2

[itstippy]

Bruce,

Fed rate at 0% since December 2008. Effective rates for consumer lending at record lows for many quarters; T-Bonds also. The Fed's accommodative stance has provided ample lending capital for a long time. It will be interesting to see what correlation M3 growth has to lending in this environment.

M3 growth is cause for celebration when Fed rate at 5%+ and money is tight. With Fed rate at 0% and liquidity already running over we just don't know what M3 increase will bring, if anything. Cross your fingers. Access to lending capital is not the problem. Capital is falling from helicopters. How to loan the money profitably at low risk is the problem.

[bimetalaupt]

Mar 26, 2011 6:12:32 GMT -5 @itstippy said:

Bruce,

Fed rate at 0% since December 2008. Effective rates for consumer lending at record lows for many quarters; T-Bonds also. The Fed's accommodative stance has provided ample lending capital for a long time. It will be interesting to see what correlation M3 growth has to lending in this environment.

M3 growth is cause for celebration when Fed rate at 5%+ and money is tight. With Fed rate at 0% and liquidity already running over we just don't know what M3 increase will bring, if anything. Cross your fingers. Access to lending capital is not the problem. Capital is falling from helicopters. How to loan the money profitably at low risk is the problem.

Its Tippy,
Lack of Tier1 capital will drive at least 1 Trillion USD from the international banks books to meet capital requirements for 2015.. Esp Germany and France will need major capital infusions if they are not going to have to cut lending..

Zero Interest??? how about 0.09%? overnight bank to bank??? then the Federal reserve did extend the overnight window to 30 days..

OK.. one swallow does not make Spring...I am ahead of the curve...but my birdies are back and she is building her nest with the fibre from my up side down coconut fibre planter...

Just a thought,
Bruce

[The Virginian]

Bad news for the market - I was hoping for QE-3!

[itstippy]

Bruce,

I Agree 100%. Interesting times. Growth in M3 is good - the question is how good and time will tell.

No robins yet here in South Central Wisconsin. Currently 18 degrees F with predicted high of 30. Will this winter never cease? I am weary of bulky coats & knit caps. Hang in there!

Soon the boy robins will appear, build shoddy bachelor-nests of whatever rubbish is handy, and fight among themselves for territorial rights. Later the girls show up, tear the thrown-together shacks apart, and build proper nests for raising families. Fun to watch for me & the cat.

[usaone]

BRuce

Great post as usual.

There will be no QE3 and the solid recovery/expansion is well underway.

Texas created almost a quarter million jobs in 2010, the most of any state.

Enjoy the springtime!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

BTI, what kind of effect are we looking at here?

Mortgage debt repaid at record rate:
www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/article.html?in_article_id=529436&in_page_id=8&ito=1565

[usaone]

Economy is picking up speed!!

M3 is exploding.

[Deleted]

QE II ends in June ?

[usaone]

Last week of June.

11 weeks left.

[usaone]

With M3 heading up we should not see the drop off we saw last April when the Fed ended QE 1.

[bimetalaupt]

Apr 8, 2011 9:14:08 GMT -5 usaone said:

With M3 heading up we should not see the drop off we saw last April when the Fed ended QE 1.

USA WON,

Yes , the Chart looks too strong to stop.. Esp The change in the Change.. Delta data..It will be interesting esp with BIS III new capital demands for world banking and international banks. could be over one Trillion Dollars of additional Capital .. Esp the German will need a lot of capital to meet the BIS III Tier1 Capital demands.

M3 will have huge meaning with the banks recapitalised..because each $ in deposits = $10 in money supply ie M3 will grow on itself and the banks will lend you money to buy bank stock ( common practice in West Texas) You put of 50% and the Money Centre Banks will lend you 50%.

Just a thought,
Bruce

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

M3 will have huge meaning with the banks recapitalised..because each $ in deposits = $10 in money supply ie M3 will grow on itself and the banks will lend you money to buy bank stock

Lets see what 4 Trillion in cash that the banks have, looks like going to work with the 4 trilion in cash the corps have.. ;D

[bimetalaupt]

Apr 21, 2011 21:40:15 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

M3 will have huge meaning with the banks recapitalised..because each $ in deposits = $10 in money supply ie M3 will grow on itself and the banks will lend you money to buy bank stock

Lets see what 4 Trillion in cash that the banks have, looks like going to work with the 4 trilion in cash the corps have.. ;D

A++,
MMXI new projection for M3 for 4/31/2012 has risen to 14367.7476268646 Billion USD or about 14.4 Trillion USD
none m1-m2 to m3 0.98653312711503 ( percent certainty or relationship )
forecast based on none m1-m2 for 4/31/2012 for m3

Just a thought,
Bruce

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[bimetalaupt]

Mar 26, 2011 1:59:58 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

So it's true the recovery is on. Nice one B!

A++,
What has me worried is the close relationship of M2/M3 to inflation.. :oThe math is tight.. ..
From John Williams...Shadow Economic...

International dollar value and trend
The quick explanation: TIC (Treasury International Capital) flows, when the trade and budget deficits are subtracted, are nicely correlated to the international value of the dollar and show the trend and expected trend quite well.


The in depth explanation: Click here for a full definition of TIC (Treasury International Capital) flows. Basically and simply though, its money that foreign banks and other official institutions flow to the US - its their investments in US bonds and stocks, and is measured in billions of dollars every month.

Two other factors are included in the chart - the US budget deficit (how much more money is being spent than being collected by the US government), and the US trade deficit (how much more money is being spent on stuff being imported into the US from other countries than the US is exporting to other countries).

In order to value a business or company and see what it's worth and how it will do in the future, three of the most important factors are sales, expenses and profit. Profit is basically sales minus expenses. If we go way out there and assume the entire US is a company, and pretend that the US dollar is its stock, then we have another way to look at the international value of the dollar.
The black line on the chart below is the monthly TIC flow from other countries (income), with both the trade and budget deficits (expenses) subtracted. So you say - "So what?"... well, by doing that we show an income and expense statement for the US dollar itself. Any numbers above zero on the left hand scale mean a profit and if the number comes in below zero then there has been a loss.

In other words, if we back way off from the dollar and look at it from a 30,000 foot level as the stock of the USA itself, we need to figure out what would represent sales and what would represent expenses. We pretend that TIC flows are income and that the combination of the trade and budget deficit are the expenses.

Then, TIC minus (trade + budget deficit) represents net profit or loss of the dollar itself. Well, what happens when a company has losses - their stock price goes down... and the same thing has happened with the international value of the dollar since early 2002. When there was a consistent net profit between 1997 and 2001, the dollar value rose.

Some may say that what we're doing is way too simple and there's some truth there... but the bottom line is that it does work and does track and has tracked the value of the dollar for almost 15 years.

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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With M3 up, jobs slowly being created, re-shoring and the strongest manufacturing sector since the 70's, things are looking good for m3 creation without intervention. If thing continue on that path using John Williams formula, the dollar will see gains in the coming decade. I hear you about inflation though.

[bimetalaupt]

Apr 24, 2011 18:16:23 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

HEY BRUCE BETTER CHECK YOUR MATH....YOUNG MAN!!!!

Frank the
Do your math people come up with less then 14.4 Trillion USD M3 .. or Did I miss the up swing in the M3 money. . This is the "1,000 G".. I will double check numbers but we have had a change in the change and delta is off the charts. ..With the huge Phase delay I will take 15 month to 18 month for inflation infusion.. But who do you trust with the CPI numbers??? ;D

Best Investment I made in 2000 with 750 ml of a right bank Bordeaux Named after St Peter.. We Drank it to share the day with my St Peters of Texas..95 Merlot 5% LeNoir of Texas!!! Mine got 1 more RP point then the French.. 99 vs 98.. more flavourer .. concentrated with thinning..

We got rain in Abilene.. also huge Hail stones.. glass broken etc....

Just a thought,
Bruce
Let me know if this not the number you were talking about.. I had to pick one???

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[bimetalaupt]

Apr 25, 2011 20:37:42 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

M3...looks good to me

Frank,
M3 has keep the upward direction in the chart...now up 1.7% year over year up from 0.8% y/y last week. With a one year Delay we should see some interesting dynamics with the end of Q2 in June..

We could see the market rock and roll!!!! all year... love that volitility as if you buy with the vic is high you normally make a lot of money...

Just a thought,
Bruce

As Sam Ramey sang to Elmo.. 'It time to say good night..'. Long day and looking for one more today..

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[bimetalaupt]

Mar 26, 2011 1:59:58 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

So it's true the recovery is on. Nice one B!

A++,
Did you see the change in the delta ( change of the change) with the Great Recession and increase in savings ( aka M2 and M3).. Looks like were savings at least 5.5% of net income.. That may not sound like much but in Billions of dollars = 600 Billion USD per Year.

With Generation X learning the hard way it is wonderful to have a few thousand $$$$ in an account to back your life style up;5.5% saving rate is great deal better then the 2% we had in 2006 . This is just one more sign the economy is stronger then reported.. So how does your recovery go!!!

Now that the $ not spent is going to hurt GDP but will help the produce a more perfect future!!!! .. Like in the 1970 and 1980 we saved 10%++,, Also note this chart is out of date.. Feb and March savings rate was 5.5% and July 2010 was 7.9%. As you can see 2006-2007 savings rate was about 2% so savings is on the increase. Add this to GDP and we would have surely more Sales at the cost of saving more money. So if you use 600 personal Savings and add the Trillion or so Dollars of Cash annual hoarding by USA,INC. = 1.6 Trillion more M3 = 1.6/13.8= about 11.6% growth in M3..
Again we will or could have the strongest banking system in the world.. If Victor P. does not mess up Citibanks credit worthiness. We need more capital for BIS III.. And we will be up there with Sweden, Germany and Finland as savers of the world.It is only a mater of time .. Like six more years to full recovery of the Banking systems and to reach the needed 12.5% Tier1 rate.. Finland and Sweden Central banks are headed to 20% Tier1 rules by 2018..

Just a thought,

Bruce

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[bimetalaupt]

Mar 26, 2011 6:56:01 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Bad news for the market - I was hoping for QE-3!

Virginian,
I was hopping for $300/br oil.. so I can pay for those 7,5 meg watt wind turbines driven pumps to separate the oil from the algae. In fact Dupont makes N-Butanol for about $3.50/ gal so if you take $0.50 from that you are talking about lower fuel prices.. Butanol has Octane rating of 102 so you can use it in a flex engine 90% to gasoline 10%. ;D

On the other hand the electric power from the winds at night would charge all the electric cars at night and make Duke Energy a very strong growth power firm. All it will take will be a very smart Electric Grid and a few Trillion $$$ from Ben B. in the form of QE3 and QE Power independence.

The next generation bacteria will turn Switch grass directly into Butanol or sugar to convert by B.Braunii into Jet Fuel or #2 diesel.. At about the price range of 250-300 $$$$ per barrel...We could have a huge need for skilled welders and farmers... Jobs all over West Texas..

Now for Methane.. CNG .. We could convert all the gasoline cars in America to use American CNG for about $300/ per ..Cut the cost of energy by 75% and tell the that American last longer with American Methane (CNG)...

So why do we need the $300/ barrel oil from those dictators that do not like us??? We do not but My use of the overpriced oil was only Exaggeration for effect.. Did it work???

Obama... Just think of the Income tax revenue you can use to pay off all the debt.. .. Now their is an EXAGGERATION!!! ;D ;D

JUST A THOUGHT,
Bruce aka Bi Metal Au Pt

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[usaone]

Bruce

i have an AVERAGE savings rate of 6.2% over the last 28 months.

Not as good as the 70's and 80's as you said but not too shabby.
I think it has peaked but should stay well above 4% for years.

Also the boomers will be spending their savings as they retire.
And all that SS money they will be getting should go right into the economy.

Healthcare and related stocks!

[The Virginian]

Virginian,
I was hopping for $300/br oil.. so I can pay for those 7,5 meg watt wind turbines driven pumps to separate the oil from the algae. In fact Dupont makes N-Butanol for about $3.50/ gal so if you take $0.50 from that you are talking about lower fuel prices.. Butanol has Octane rating of 102 so you can use it in a flex engine 90% to gasoline 10%.

On the other hand the electric power from the winds at night would charge all the electric cars at night and make Duke Energy a very strong growth power firm. All it will take will be a very smart Electric Grid and a few Trillion $$$ from Ben B. in the form of QE3 and QE Power independence.

Sounds like a plan Bruce! QE - to the MOON !

[bimetalaupt]

May 6, 2011 17:16:13 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Virginian,
I was hopping for $300/br oil.. so I can pay for those 7,5 meg watt wind turbines driven pumps to separate the oil from the algae. In fact Dupont makes N-Butanol for about $3.50/ gal so if you take $0.50 from that you are talking about lower fuel prices.. Butanol has Octane rating of 102 so you can use it in a flex engine 90% to gasoline 10%.

On the other hand the electric power from the winds at night would charge all the electric cars at night and make Duke Energy a very strong growth power firm. All it will take will be a very smart Electric Grid and a few Trillion $$$ from Ben B. in the form of QE3 and QE Power independence.

Yes, But M3 is down 164 billion USD so you would expect gold to be down as well as DJIA..The Federal Reserve will have to fight this monetary contraction with full force next week!!! see chart...
Gold went down from 1585 to 1488 or about 100 points 11 MUCH OF THAT WAS INCREASE IN $$$ VALUE VS THE EURO OR GBP..
Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

Sounds like a plan Bruce! QE - to the MOON !

=BEEN THERE JUST LOOK AT WHAT CHINA HAS DONE WITH ITS M1 AND M2 UP 36% IN 2009

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