Remembering the last big recession

[Deleted]

As I remember it the last big recession in the 70's went something like this.
Everybody was so scared (& a lot of the fear was related to the news media) that nobody was spending money (I might be out of a job next week). Well after a while people just got tired of both being afraid of the future & of doing without. Christmas spending finally went up & that's what truly ended the recession. Well I just saw that Christmas spending is up now (& I noticed it around here too) & I'm taking that as a sign that we are coming out of the recession (finally). What do you guys think? Do many of you remember the last big recession & what's your views?

[neohguy]

The mid seventies recession did not affect my area that bad. We thought the slowdown in work availability was due to the end of the VN war and returning veterans. This may or not have been the reason but most of us felt that it was worth the slowdown.
A tremendous amount of Interstate Highway construction was still increasing at that time providing thousands of jobs for a long time in Ohio. The oil embargo scared us for about 2.3 seconds but it did result in a lot of ng conversions, energy exploration, and the short period of people buying more efficient cars. I remember seeing my first calculator in 1973. It was magic. It was made in California. The first wave of boomer home buyers were gearing up along with the not so good sprawl and accompanying infrastructure. Florida and the sun belt states were booming and a lot of our young tradesman moved there. Credit cards did not grow on trees back then so people tended to save and then spend. I saw somewhere that personal consumption was about 60% of gdp back then. Outsourcing was just starting but mostly invisible. Most people could find work that wanted work.
Early 80's recession was harder but there seemed to be more opportunities then than now. Tech was going crazy along with a lot of infrastructure improvement, public and private, and exploding health care jobs. There were still plenty of jobs to be retrained for as we outsourced our manufacturing. The recession did not end because people started spending but because people started working.

[ModE98]

I remember the last big DEPRESSION. This time it is not quite as bad... only 10% or so unemployment, in the depression peak it was 25%. I remember the empty stores and buidings around Minneapolis, where we lived at the time. There were worse places, so maybe I was lucky to be there. The 70's recession was scary, but nothing like today, which just goes on and on. We will be lucky to wind this down in the next 5 years. It's likely to be a slow drag.

[bimetalaupt]

Old Tex,
With 10,000 boomer's a week saying " Take this job and I am RETIRED" underemployment could increase as they now want part time jobs. With M1 up some 20.5% GDP should be hopping and sales at Wal-Mart hopping. Do you recall the projections in 2000 that with the retirement of the boomer's from 2010 to 2030 we would have a working population shortage???

I have been on the hunt of real deals and they are out there.. I think white sales will be interesting in January.
I have also noted M3 is in the basing mood and should also start to increase as has M2 so we should have lots of money : thank-you Ben B. and Axel Weber. So we have lot of short term money (M1) and M3 is now looking better.. During the depression of 1931 M3 crashed as it did in march 2010 with all the bank closing.. CD's because worthless and the Federal Reserve did not inject enough money to replace the loss in M3.. Ben B. and Alex Weber( ECB Future President) have not made that mistake.. WE did see a large Phase delay so Real Estate has not recovered.

I hope this is the end with a hot Christmas sales.. But remember we had a lot of real discounting so the bottom line may not look that good for retail. Wal-mart sells cheaper imported goods because they have great margins!! Walgreens and CVS also!!

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[bimetalaupt]

Old Tex,
One more thing.. In the 1970's I lived in Midland,Tx and it was the heart of the oil boom. Did not last and in the 1980 the largest Independent bank in Texas was insolvent with bad oil loans.. That thought us a lesson .. Odd thing was none of the local Credit Unions had major problem.

We have many economies in the USA.. Where Oil does well it may not be the best economy for Cars.. They did not sell a lot of large cars then and the margins on the small cars was small.. Direct cost problems with higher cost Union Workers vs Cheaper labor in Japan and Germany was the point my Economic teacher had.. Also economy of scale.

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[decoy409]

Whats the view? When in HISTORY have you seen the FRAUD taking place on the scale is? Just how do you assume magic tricks work this time around to make everything have the illusion of all better?

[bimetalaupt]

de coy 409,
Food and gasoline prices!!! It is better here then 2008!!!! I also noted that all of the Credit Unions have increase in deposits and Loans.. All of our Credit Unions are very well capitalized.. 10% tier1 for the two largest...Land Prices are going up so the farmer can borrow all they need at the Farm Credit Bank of Texas...

All economic growth has been strong and growing.. We now have one more four year college in Abilene and it is a State School!!!And the Major Hospital is doing the largest expansion in its history..

Just a thought,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[Deleted]

One more thing.. In the 1970's I lived in Midland,Tx and it was the heart of the oil boom.

Bimetalaupt, just to let you know Midland is booming again & has been for a few years. Lot's of jobs in the oil fields.

When in HISTORY have you seen the FRAUD taking place on the scale is?

Decoy please explain? (I have no idea what your talking about).

[bimetalaupt]

Old Tex,
Yes, but this time we also have Wind!!!! Esp in Abilene,TX.. I can not find a better use of something that will be here forever.. It blows at night so your Volt can be ready for a heard day work in the AM.

With the advent of CNG taxi fleet in New York... WE can fill the risk of oil shortage with Cow >>>>> or biomass. It is not had to convert over from gasoline to methane...

One other thing... Dallas Federal Reserve has been very much on the tight side of the system.. Inflatikon will be the problem esp in the EU with the huge Bond purchase by the ECB.. Axel Weber has his point!!!

Bi metal

[bimetalaupt]

Frank,
i have been thinking about retail and how the king of the hill changes about every 30 years. Looks at the smaller stores like DG with a PEG of 0.87. Or HD with a PEG of 1.28.. Wal-mart is looking at PEG 1.24.. Close to HD but pay little dividend. hard to beet WAG with 1.14 PEG... Retail is going to be interesting over the next 20 years.. What is your Pick??

Bi metal Au Pt

[Deleted]

Old Tex,
Yes, but this time we also have Wind!!!!

Bimetalaupt it's just my feeling (I guess) but I don't think that we are there yet. Wind, solar, etc just hasn't advanced enough to be really viable. For instance I can pick an electric company that used wind to generate electricity, but if I do I have to pay more for it. Cars are the same way, battery technology just isn't there yet to where electric cars can compete. Just off the top of my head I would say that converting algae into fuel might be the best long term solution but it's still to new to really know.

[comokate]

I remember recession in the 1970's; I was a teen living in suburban Detroit. We were hit especially hard as the first wave of compact, fuel efficient Asian cars were coming in. It's been a slow slide down for Detroit ever since. It didn't have to be this way. My father used to work at the General Motor's Technical Division, in Warren Michigan. We've had the ability to get away form Fossil fuels for DECADES. But like everything else, those who stand to lose their power, status and money to someone/something new are not* going to let that happen. I remember my father coming home livid that the engineers were coming up with better technology but were not allowed to see it in production. Stock holders and Oil companies win hands down over the American worker/consumer.
If you have never seen this movie, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND seeing it !
www.matttrailer.com/who_killed_the_electric_car_2006

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With 10,000 boomer's a week saying " Take this job and I am RETIRED" underemployment could increase as they now want part time jobs. With M1 up some 20.5% GDP should be hopping and sales at Wal-Mart hopping. Do you recall the projections in 2000 that with the retirement of the boomer's from 2010 to 2030 we would have a working population shortage???

I remember that! Something tells me that is an unavoidable fact of life that can't be swept under the rug

[bimetalaupt]

It is more about the grid.. We sell the energy to the Dallas market.. short cut the grid and we could sell night energy in the Midland or Abilene market as the gird is now too small for growth

Dec 28, 2010 18:39:38 GMT -5 @oldtex said:

Old Tex,
Yes, but this time we also have Wind!!!!

Bimetalaupt it's just my feeling (I guess) but I don't think that we are there yet. Wind, solar, etc just hasn't advanced enough to be really viable. For instance I can pick an electric company that used wind to generate electricity, but if I do I have to pay more for it. Cars are the same way, battery technology just isn't there yet to where electric cars can compete. Just off the top of my head I would say that converting algae into fuel might be the best long term solution but it's still to new to really know.

[mikec]

Decoy please explain? (I have no idea what your talking about).

TEX neither does he....

Read more: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=moneytalk&action=display&thread=542#ixzz19WfFp0u1

[superintendent552]

I was in business in Baltimore in the late 70"s rebuilding townhomes for re-sale. Would borrow money at 4% over prime. That worked out until prime went to 18 - 19%. Put me under. Profit went to interest payments. Then in the summer of 1982 building took off again in the Balto/Wash area. Got a job with a major builder and never looked back until now. The construction in this area is dead, can't see the light at the end of the tunnel.

[usaone]

Some people forget how bad the late 1970's and early 1980's were. As late as 1984 Delaware still had unemployment at 14%

Regans approval ratings after 2 years in office were around 35%. We bailed out Chrysler... almost 11% unemployment. Marines killed in Lebanon. Ect. Very Very tough period.

[The Virginian]

Some people forget how bad the late 1970's and early 1980's were.

I dream of being back in that time period again !