A little Perspective

[usaone]

Since March 2009

Stock Market up 100%

Gold up 50%

Bonds Flat

[usaone]

GDP average for the last 100 years.

3.1%

GDP for the last 6 quarters

3.2%

Were are growing FASTER now than the long term average.

[usaone]

Farming 10 A.D.

Animal hooked up to a plow digging a trench. Put seeds in trench. Pray for rain.


Farming 1850 A.D.

Animal hooked up to a plow digging a trench. Put seeds in trench. Pray for rain.


Not much changed in 18 HUNDRED YEARS!

How about the last 100+

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Farming 2010 AD

Tractor hooked up to Air-seeder. plant.. Pray for rain.

[usaone]

Irrigation....ect.

[usaone]

Thanks to technology...which increases efficiency....we are well into an economic expansion. Its a shame a few people refuse to see it.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I hear you USAwon. The best part is that we are just at the beginning of understanding what we can do to produce food. Eco farming, freedom in Africa, ect. Things are getting better. Thanks to the Industrial age. We are going to be alright!

[usaone]

I think the Industrial Age is over.

We are now in the Technology Age.

[usaone]

K for A!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks usawon, my next k is for u.

What about the space age? The Age of Revolution has brought us to the space age, JMO. The tech we will need for mass human space travel is going to be crazy. In the theme of the tread, to put that in perspective, 100 yrs ago mass human flight was a pipe dream.

[bimetalaupt]

Mar 24, 2011 22:39:27 GMT -5 usaone said:

Since March 2009

Stock Market up 100%

Gold up 50%

Bonds Flat

USA WON,
Bond may be the same as March 2009 but you missed two or three sales and two buys..
Best sale in 30 years for bonds was March 2009.. or Nov 2008..with a buy in Jan 2009.. the 50/50 rebalance system is a trading system. . Buying stocks on pure nerves at the bottom when others are selling and screaming!! Panic...

Again 2011 March was a sale for bonds!! and buy for high Beta Small caps..Its the action that counts.. Go for the tough calls against all the know it alls , etc..

Just a thought on a very hard system to use ,
Bruce

Attachments:

[vl]

So? During the same period that you seem to indicate as being prosperous... America was forced to print up TRILLIONS of unaccounted-for dollars that went STRAIGHT into fake markets to hold them up. The price of housing utterly collapsed and a MASSIVE segment of the population fell off the face of the Earth. In short... much like your tout that we are in the Age of Technology... button pushing has only driven us further off the end of the tangible common sense dock and out into shark-infested waters wearing a meat life jacket.
What is your point? Technology doesn't actually DO ANYTHING to sustain life and cannot become a substitute for ACTUAL LABOR without compromising it. In short, you're betting on the means to the end instead of cultivating the food you need to survive. Total utter STUPIDITY.

[usaone]

Mar 25, 2011 2:36:06 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Mar 24, 2011 22:39:27 GMT -5 usaone said:

Since March 2009

Stock Market up 100%

Gold up 50%

Bonds Flat

USA WON,
Bond may be the same as March 2009 but you missed two or three sales and two buys..
Best sale in 30 years for bonds was March 2009.. or Nov 2008..with a buy in Jan 2009.. the 50/50 rebalance system is a trading system. #nerdy#. Buying stocks on pure nerves at the bottom when others are selling and screaming!! Panic...

Again 2011 March was a sale for bonds!! and buy for high Beta Small caps..Its the action that counts.. Go for the tough calls against all the know it alls , etc..

Just a thought on a very hard system to use ,
Bruce

Its all about timing I guess Bruce! ;D

[usaone]

K for FTI!

[Driftr]

Mar 24, 2011 22:42:51 GMT -5 usaone said:

GDP average for the last 100 years.

3.1%

GDP for the last 6 quarters

3.2%

Were are growing FASTER now than the long term average.

Do you think it matters what % of the GDP was government spending during those two timeframes? Would you be able to provide those metrics for the same timeframes sans that spending?

[usaone]

Mar 25, 2011 6:20:59 GMT -5 @vl said:

So? During the same period that you seem to indicate as being prosperous... America was forced to print up TRILLIONS of unaccounted-for dollars that went STRAIGHT into fake markets to hold them up. The price of housing utterly collapsed and a MASSIVE segment of the population fell off the face of the Earth. In short... much like your tout that we are in the Age of Technology... button pushing has only driven us further off the end of the tangible common sense dock and out into shark-infested waters wearing a meat life jacket.
What is your point? Technology doesn't actually DO ANYTHING to sustain life and cannot become a substitute for ACTUAL LABOR without compromising it. In short, you're betting on the means to the end instead of cultivating the food you need to survive. Total utter STUPIDITY.

Technology IS a substitute for labor.

Technology DOES sustain life.

Technology allows us to have the safety nets that we have in place now to help us get through the tuff times.

Technology = Efficiency which allows us to focus on new more important things.

[usaone]

In my opinion its technology that will also save Japan.

They are already bouncing back much quicker than people think.

Technology will be much more organic going forward.

[usaone]

Mar 25, 2011 7:58:10 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Mar 24, 2011 22:42:51 GMT -5 usaone said:

GDP average for the last 100 years.

3.1%

GDP for the last 6 quarters

3.2%

Were are growing FASTER now than the long term average.

Do you think it matters what % of the GDP was government spending during those two timeframes? Would you be able to provide those metrics for the same timeframes sans that spending?

Yes it depends how much is government spending. I will see if I can find a chart for government spending as a % of GDP.

It will be dropping quickly over the next few years just as it did after WWII.

[lifewasgood]

Yup, and higher fuel cost is a potential break in the "just in Time" supply chain!

[Driftr]

Mar 25, 2011 10:37:17 GMT -5 usaone said:

Yes it depends how much is government spending. I will see if I can find a chart for government spending as a % of GDP.

It will be dropping quickly over the next few years just as it did after WWII.

Someone correct my math here if I'm making mistakes:

GDP for Q4'10 = 14,871.4 trillion versus Q3'09 GDP (annualized?) = 14,114.7. Looks to me to be a 5.36% increase divided by 1.5 to account for the 6 quarters = 3.57% GDP growth.
Same timeframes and method for calculating Govt consumption and expenditures growth = 4.78% growth.

The good news seems to be in the anual comparable numbers. 2010 actually saw Govt spending as a % of GDP drop a little. First time that's happened since '05. What were we doing so right in '92-'98?

If we see the kind of drop in Govt spending as a % of GDP that we saw after WW2, there's your instant depression. Actually it wouldn't be possible to have the kind of drops we saw in the late 40s. Govt spending was 42% of GDP in 1945 and dropped to 18% the next year. Currently we 'only' have 20% of our GDP dependant on Govt spending. The fact that a little over half that spending is currently deficit spending shouldn't be lost on anyone who has been paying attention.

[vl]

"Technology IS a substitute for labor.

Technology DOES sustain life.

Technology allows us to have the safety nets that we have in place now to help us get through the tuff times.

Technology = Efficiency which allows us to focus on new more important things."

I-pod... its what's for dinner at the USAONE house! Raw or baked oh oblivious one?

"In my opinion its technology that will also save Japan.

They are already bouncing back much quicker than people think."

Good thing no one takes you seriously. Reactor 3's core split. Radioactivity levels are UP 10000% Much like a fiat marketplace funded by Bernanke! The weekend could bring hope that the globe is preparing a mass exodus from the main island and a massive CONTAINMENT project takes shape before the exposure reaches ONE THIRD of the global population and your entire supply source for everything your PUSH BUTTONS replaced here. You rarely THINK before posting... try it, son.

[The Virginian]

usaone - I admire your positive enthusiasm. But, if we become dependent on technology for our survival we must also be proactive and think of how to survive when things go awry as Japan (and soon the whole world) is finding out.

Some "Tech Guru" was on the Science Channel a couple weeks ago predicting that Robots would be a household item by 2030 just like computers. With the new IBM computer (Watson) I believe it will be so. Exciting times ! Watson is already destined to become "instant" second opinions for medical health having virtually all knowledge programed into it.

[usaone]

The reactor did not split open. V_L you love drama.

[verrip1]

Bruce Berkowitz of the Fairholme Fund wrote a piece a year or so ago in which he noted that at the turn of the 19th century, people were bemoaning the Industrial Revolution and insisting that all farming would stop in the US, leaving us nothing but steel to eat. He noted a similar Chicken Little concept floating around at the end of the 20th century, except that it worried that the US economy would fail because it had become an entirely service economy with no industrial production.

Both were equally stupid.

[jarhead1976]

Reactor core breach is not good. When the government extends the perimeter around the reactor. sure sign more radiation is in the air.... V-L is right.

[sangria]

Veteran seems so irritated these days. Why?

[kman]

V_L will be fine. It takes a couple of days for this to work. May cause crankiness.

[sangria]

[clubv]

usa,

have you been to japan? do you personally know what's happening. do you have any expertise in the subject?

[clubv]

If technology is a substitute for labor, what happens when nobody is working? (we're getting close)