DOW futures project 20,000 mark at the opening

[Value Buy]

today, we cross the 20,000 mark on the DOW.

Between earnings and the view of the Trump Administration's as being business friendly, we should open above the mark. 

[ModE98]

Now, is 21000 possible for this year too?...... Possible correction?

[wyouser]

I think it continues upward. This bull may have legs left....

[Deleted]

Staying the course but the little voice in my head is sounding the alarm.

The gains since 2010 are insane, I really feel bad for anyone that hasn't been in this epic bull market.

[Opti]

I think the Bulls are running with Trump until they learn its a bad idea. I expect a correction, but how much and when really depends on what Trump does in the 1st 100 days and beyond.

[Deleted]

What the DJIA does from this point depends on a variety of factors.

Mechanically speaking, it has made all time highs 2 days in a row on the intra-day basis; however it has retraced to a lower point from those at each days close.

None the less at the close today, the DJIA is 32.40 points { +0.16%} above the close on Wednesday.

The question is not if there will be a pullback at some point; but rather how far into the current 1,000 point range does the DJIA get before it happens or do we see a blow through before there is a pullback?

This is an important question to ponder. The why as to that is rather clear, though most are looking right past the clarity. The clarity is of course Cost v. Return.

The cost per share of a massive swath of Dividend paying stocks is extremely burdensome, versus the rate of the dividend return %. Example LMT: $255.00 per share; but a paltry 2.86% return rate; so on 1 share you would pay $255.00 to own it; and get a paltry $1.82 each quarter.

With things being in the realm of a more Hawkish Fed; reason & weight being on the lean of Interest Rate hikes and the growing indications that the FED has once again missed the curve to stay on top of things:

This a pretty picture does not paint.

Though as things have been so skewed for so long; in so lies a quirk. There is sufficient room for the markets to cross traverse themselves.

So many Equities have not been on the "boat", that the Cost v. Return is much more equitable; even if tangibly a lot of them are saddled with more Risk potential across the breadth.

If no one has noticed; there have been sizable (quiet, but sizable) moves in many Equities which have for the most part languished in semi stagnation for years. Equities which have bounced along; but never really moved much.

These provide a place for money to go, a place for the tide to ebb. Reason being that even as they rise in price and thus Return % goes down; the pithy cost $ wise still provides attractive Price Appreciation gains.

The precipice at the feet of all who tread in the markets has every chance of providing it's own forward path; but also equally has every chance of creating its own self fulfilling prophesy of doom.

The ultimate question is; Is anyone listening to the markets and what they are saying?

Time will tell.

[Deleted]

Jan 27, 2017 9:01:45 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

For investors....at some point over the next year or two you are going to see the media going crazy about INFLATION. At this point we could use some inflation. For those of you that are too young to remember, you are going to hear the media going crazy about the economy being TOO HOT.

Exactly. Hence, my post prior to yours.

The big "scary" thing about the next wave of Media "end of the world" diatribe; will be the questions which the talking heads will raise about the stability of a wide swath of companies which are trading over the $100 mark and which pay dividends which "short stick" investors.

The talk will turn to how "bubblesque" certain names feel; in the face of more "normal" and "honest" Interest rates. And how very risky and dangerous being in those places will be.

The goal of course of all that will be to get money moving from point A to point B. The reason will be as it always has been; to allow for the Big Money to make a killing riding Short Stock Positions as those names fall; while waiting for the price that all due research says is "Prime" for entry on Long Stock Positions.

It will be as it always is; the old "Look over here, while we work over there".

But see if folks stop for a moment and consider how they have been pushed and pulled, made fearful and nervous over the years; and compare that to what it has done to them on the bottom line.

The clarity of the game is evident.

Hence why I said that folks should look at what has been quietly moving in an upward fashion over the past several months.

If folks do they probably will be rather surprised, when they realize that the real movement has been in the smaller dollar equities. The things which have been sedate for long periods.

Sure $50 and $100 daily moves + or - on things like AMZN are fascinating; but really how meaningful are they for anyone who can't afford to buy 1,000 or so shares of AMZN at $835+ per share?

Not so much meaning for smaller "average" investors.

But something like AMTD; now there is an interesting one for you. That is up $16.14 PER SHARE since 8-12-2016.

It has exceeded the prior 52 Week High of $36, Multiple Times during this period.

Things like that are where the story can and will get interesting.

But then, money always looks for a place to hang out in the in between times; those times where interest rates are upwardly mobile and the effects on High Cost, Low Return instruments strike the true fear into those who have chased after the return.

As high cost principle gets burned, losses mount; fear & frustration also build.

The big money knows this, the big money starts to move ahead of this. Which is why the old "Look over here, while we work over there" traveling magic show makes its appearance as things of such nature begin to really heat up.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 27, 2017 9:01:45 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Now the unrelated post:



Forth quarter GDP just announced. 1.9%. PATHETIC. The final figure for the past eight years of economic policy disaster.




Many people are too young to even realize that what we have been experiencing is NOT and should NOT be considered normal economic conditions. I would guess that at least half the country has no memory or awareness of the last time we had a long term economic golden period. (1982 to 2000)

JMO, but as you pointed out, debt!! Also, like you said, the world has become more global since 1982, or more reliant on global growth.. The eastern hemisphere is FUBAR...

Again, just my thoughts.

[Value Buy]

Dow opened at another record high today 

Anyone interested in where your portfolio is since the November election?
If you are not up 8% something is wrong  
If your 401-k isn't there, you should be asking hr what is the problem.
Indexes are up 10 percent since the election.
If you have an IRA that you control, look at your return since November.  You have the power to correct it if you are behind the trend!

[Deleted]

The Dow increase for 2017 so far is dependent on 3 stocks. Last fall it was 4... 

[Value Buy]

Feb 21, 2017 9:45:55 GMT -5 oped said:

The Dow increase for 2017 so far is dependent on 3 stocks. Last fall it was 4... 

My IRA'S are doing just fine.
I admit half of my personal stocks are not growing at 10% and do not really worry as they are in the drip program buying more shares on increased dividend distributions.
My total return since election?
8.7%, so no complaints here. One fund has too many bond components
I am a buy and hold disciple. If fundamentals are good you continue to hold and reap dividends.
I am thinking of pulling a year's worth of monetary requirements now, in case of a pull back later this year if the tax roll back does not happen.
Dow up 90 points right now
20,715
Small caps are doing great too, but I am not personally invested in any other through funds.

[Deleted]

I'm out. And I'm perfectly ok with that. We all make decisions that are best for us.

Eta. My iras and hsa are fine i'm sure I'm not looking. My investment accounts are out.

[Value Buy]

Feb 21, 2017 11:07:16 GMT -5 oped said:

I'm out. And I'm perfectly ok with that. We all make decisions that are best for us.

Eta. My iras and hsa are five I'm sure I'm not looking. My investment accounts are out.

Nothing wrong with being out, if you honestly feel that way.
Money is very personal.
Trust me when the markets dived in the last year of Bush, we all felt worn out.
Some of us said it would not continue and rode it right back up.
Some pulled out at or near the bottom, and rue it today.
Bottom line for many of us on the money boards is, you have to be in it to win it. Good times or bad, and we are not rocket scientists, and do not try timing the market either.

"rocket scientists" refer to most of us. There are some brilliant minds there to pick their thoughts! 

[Deleted]

I pulled out on the way up. This actually reminded me I had 2 negative stocks I was still holding so I went and sold those today as they finally went positive. I could have held CAT and IBM longer, but you can't time up any more than down... Which is where I think I'll buy in next time I guess we'll all just wait and see.

[Deleted]

No I sold them a bit ago. They were up but kept climbing after. Oh well. It is what it is and I'm ok with that

[Deleted]

We built a house last year. We made almost no money. I could afford gains. I also was about to take out a mortgage, because I'm generally in line with phil's let it ride and take the cheap debt. I decided not to do that but pull funds instead. I'm just not at all comfortable with what I see as current volitility and uncertainty. Having enough liquid also makes the tension I feel at the current political landscape bearable, I could literally disappear tomorrow if need be. Don't want to have to but having options is keeping me sane So, like I said. I'm good.

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2017 11:44:56 GMT -5 oped said:

No I sold them a bit ago. They were up but kept climbing after. Oh well. It is what it is and I'm ok with that

Just curious, what will make you jump back in?

[Deleted]

My first instinct was to say a huge nosedive but um, I think it's more I'd have to feel more confidence in the way forward, feel less uncertain...

[Value Buy]

I see a large LT capital gains tax coming next year!

[Value Buy]

Dow currently at 21,068
So much for breaking 20,000

Took 35 days to gain another 1,000 points.
Evidently the world liked the President's speech last night because Asian and European markets were both up big time over night/this morning 

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy, I think the economy is likely to do just fine. My biggest concern at these levels it's going to take a while for earnings to catch up with the price. However, for the Dow Industrials, only 14 of 30 have a long term peg ratio over 2 according.

It is getting really hard to find good stocks with cheap valuations.

[Value Buy]

Mar 1, 2017 10:56:09 GMT -5 clarkrl2 said:

Value Buy, I think the economy is likely to do just fine. My biggest concern at these levels it's going to take a while for earnings to catch up with the price. However, for the Dow Industrials, only 14 of 30 have a long term peg ratio over 2 according.

It is getting really hard to find good stocks with cheap valuations.

The fact Asian and European markets liked the speech speaks well for our future.
Although Trump is pushing nationalism and pulling back politically around the world is now looking as  being good for the world's future

[Rob Base 2.0]

This is clearly a result of the Obama economy and Obama's policies. Trump hasn't implemented any of his policies yet, so Obama deserves all of the credit while Trump deserves none.

At least that's what a liberal was telling me anyways :-) LMAO

[Value Buy]

Mar 1, 2017 13:25:54 GMT -5 Rob Base 2.0 said:

This is clearly a result of the Obama economy and Obama's policies. Trump hasn't implemented any of his policies yet, so Obama deserves all of the credit while Trump deserves none.

At least that's what a liberal was telling me anyways :-) LMAO

Yep. the market took off a day ahead of the fall election.
Investors finally realized President Obama was finished and Hillary was going to lose the election.
So I agree, give the former President all the glory for the increase of stock gains.

[Value Buy]

I was perplexed by the market yesterday. Dow lost only about 25 points, but our three IRA accounts were down a fair amount. 
Almost thirteen thousand dollars. Usually 25 points down in the Dow is only worth less than a thousand dollar swing, sometimes even being up for the day.
Not sure why....I know the funds are in other markets beside the Dow,plus bonds, but still, not sure why down this much.
Personal stock portfolio was in the green, but not by very much. 
It will be interesting to see where the funds wind up tonight.
Oil stocks are big winners today, as is banking, but we no longer own any bank stocks.
We got out of JPM way too soon......

[Deleted]

Still think we get a nice bump when the tax plan is announced before a massive drop once the market realizes that Trump is the emperor with no clothes. If I really want to have fun with predictions I'll say the market stabilizes when Pence takes over.

Sometimes I wish I had the stones to take a guess with my holdings but I know enough about investing to know that I can't call a peak nor a valley.

[Value Buy]

aj, give the guy some credit with the market rally.
Mass media spread the lie the markets would falter with Trump in office. Hillary was the Savior.
As for the Emperor with no clothes, I wish I could afford those suits.

As to today's horrid pace, this is not good. Too far, too fast spells a fall coming......
My only thought is European markets were up even more percentage wise.

[Deleted]

Mar 1, 2017 14:06:45 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

aj, give the guy some credit with the market rally.
Mass media spread the lie the markets would falter with Trump in office. Hillary was the Savior.
As for the Emperor with no clothes, I wish I could afford those suits.

As to today's horrid pace, this is not good. Too far, too fast spells a fall coming......
My only thought is European markets were up even more percentage wise.

I'll give him credit for the rally, but then you have to give him the blame when it falls. I never though Hillary would be good for the market.

As a fiscal conservative I am horrified he wants to add an incredible amount to an already bloated defense budget. It's like Cheneys "Deficits don't matter" on steroids. We can't keep going deeper and deeper in debt and expecting to never pay the tab.

[kadee79]

wxyz, how would you describe the "average investor"?  Is that age range 40-50's, male, white? or another description?

[kadee79]

What I was getting at is that women use "feelings" way more than men.  Often they are just as correct as someone using other means than feelings to make financial decisions.
How we feel after making those decisions is also more important to "most" women than to men.

I was just thinking that the majority of younger persons don't invest...at least not on their own, maybe a mutual fund or 401K, but not buying individual stocks.
Most/many women are scared to death of investing...they have a fear of "losing it all" and time wise, have just recently started handling financial matters more...granted, there have been exceptions but the majority of financial matters have historically been handled by men...husband, father, brother, uncle...a male in the family.
And people of color have recently (historically) started handling their finances and many still don't do that very well...case in point, wealthy sports figures who lose it all.

So based on those 3 things, I was wondering how an "average investor" was defined.

My question has/had nothing to do with politics in any way...just other variables that come to my mind.  So how "average" is defined can skewer statistic results in lots of ways.  

And there is an old saying that I like....Statistics are like bikinis...what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital!