gacpa
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Post by gacpa on Dec 13, 2016 11:51:27 GMT -5
Moderators, Please feel free to move if needed. Can someone explain to me why the stock market has gone up so much since the election? Seriously, I understand some of it is because of Trump, but good grief, this is ridiculous.
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rob base
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Post by rob base on Dec 13, 2016 16:20:42 GMT -5
It was the result of a Russian hack. Don't worry Congress will have a hearing on it........
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gacpa
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Post by gacpa on Dec 13, 2016 16:54:31 GMT -5
Yeah, I am actually afraid it is not real. Or that it will stick around.
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rob base
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Post by rob base on Dec 13, 2016 17:01:54 GMT -5
Also the current market is possibly the result of the Ghost of Christmas Future......
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movingforward
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Post by movingforward on Dec 13, 2016 17:03:19 GMT -5
Nobody can predict what the stock market will do. I still have $2700 to contribute before maxing my IRA. I am waiting until January to move the money, though I have absolutely no idea why...I have no crystal ball and no idea WTH is going to happen.
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Dec 13, 2016 17:37:52 GMT -5
Everyday you can read one analyst who says the market will go up, and one who says the market will go down. IMO we have speculation on what sectors will do well under Trump and which won't and they are moving their money around. Then there is the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates. Here is a little history on post election swings:
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Virgil Showlion
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[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 13, 2016 21:04:09 GMT -5
Buyer euphoria.
Just beware: average stock multiples (specifically, the Dow) have only been this high four times before in history.
I'm not saying they won't continue to press higher for a while, but stocks are, generally speaking, incredibly overbought.
The reasons why are complex. Part of the answer is that bonds are performing miserably and hence more money is jumping into risk assets.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Dec 13, 2016 22:23:44 GMT -5
Moderators, Please feel free to move if needed. Can someone explain to me why the stock market has gone up so much since the election? Seriously, I understand some of it is because of Trump, but good grief, this is ridiculous. I think it's several things. The anticipation that a Trump administration will reduce government regulation that is costly and time consuming to comply with. This will allow businesses to be more profitable. The anticipation that Trump will be successful pushing through corporate tax rates that are in line with the rest of the world, reducing business taxes by about half. The anticipation that the Trump administration will drive infrastructure projects that will provide thousands of jobs. Coupled with the Santa Claus rally that frequently happens this time of year.
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cronewitch
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Post by cronewitch on Dec 13, 2016 22:35:00 GMT -5
Buyer euphoria. Just beware: average stock multiples (specifically, the Dow) have only been this high four times before in history. I'm not saying they won't continue to press higher for a while, but stocks are, generally speaking, incredibly overbought. The reasons why are complex. Part of the answer is that bonds are performing miserably and hence more money is jumping into risk assets. Many people didn't want to invest as long as they could live on interest. My mom bought her first shares when she was over 80 couldn't live on CD interest. We baby boomers and gen X are at an investing age too. Some boomers are 70 now but some as young as 50 something and gen X are getting to 50 also. We/they are saving at a frantic pace and we older haven't pulled much out yet. My investments are up over 120K this year and I only took out half the gains and haven't spent all of that yet. People say to only take 4% but some are taking 2-3% out while making 12%. Maybe there will come a time when boomers spend more like in 15 years when some are over 85 and some die spreading the money to heirs who will spend it might be hard times then if the gen x don't save faster than boomers spend. My family Gen x aren't saving as much as I think they should, I am afraid they will blow the inheritance and be poor but not my problem.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2016 0:50:47 GMT -5
Time to bet against home loans again like its 2007?
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Dec 14, 2016 11:37:24 GMT -5
Time to bet against home loans again like its 2007? LOL! I don't think the banks are writing loans based solely on information provided only by a phone conversation about the value of the property in question (which might be based on the properties around it) - so I don't think there's a future foreclosure armageddon looming. I think there MIGHT be a pull back in housing prices - but the banks won't need a bail out - since the foreclosure rates won't sky rocket -- they will just stay at the typical rates they have historically. That said, it might be a good time to start the processs for buying an investment property - you might find one at a good price (not top of the market price) and be able to take advantage of the low mortgage rates.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2016 14:29:33 GMT -5
Jim Cramer, whose big-picture view of the market is always interesting, has mentioned several likely causes. One was the "agnostic" investors, who didn't really care who won the election but were waiting on the sidelines to invest till after the election results were known. Another is the short-sellers who had to scramble to buy the stocks that. according to the bets they'd made, were supposed to go down. (Or, as DH used to say. "He who sells what isn't his'n, buys it back or goes to prison".) Apparently some pension funds and other institutional investors had cash on the sidelines and now want to show more stock holdings in their year-end reports.
As a member of the baby boomer generation, I'm still very heavy on equities. If the market tanks like it did in the last crisis, I'll pare back discretionary spending and consider getting SS earlier than planned.
In a year in which I lost both my husband and my mother, I'll take all the good news I can get. The market is one thing. So is my weight loss, apparently from caregiving in DH's last months but I've still kept it off. Last but not least, there's my new granddaughter! I'm looking forward to 2017.
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