BONDS ARE THE HOUSE YOU LIVE IN

[bimetalaupt]

Bonds have been a bull market for some 30 plus years! Over the last 15 or so years they have produced better total return then stock market yet few have regarded the common split of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds as a hedge against GDP weakness.  Over the last 100 years or so Bonds produced a better return the housing market. 



My system is now working with 50% stocks, 30% bonds and 20% KA$H and options. Options are as much for protection then capital gains.  It is a very aggressive system if high beta elements are used.  Time will tell!!


Just a thought,

Bruce  

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The question for the bond market - IMHO - is going to be if the FED is going to support a broken government social support system when the great revaluation happens, or if a haircut will be needed to hit the clearing level.

Then lets talk about how even during a "tribulating" time, US govt bonds are still going to be the best of the worst; even after a haircut.

Of course when we are creating the new baseline for the Sharpe Ratio...

Yes, bonds are often overlooked because they are boring. Over the last three years around these parts bonds have killed housing, hell, holding Ka$h has been a better option. Greta points!

[bimetalaupt]

Sept 9, 2016 11:59:46 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The question for the bond market - IMHO - is going to be if the FED is going to support a broken government social support system when the great revaluation happens, or if a haircut will be needed to hit the clearing level.

Then lets talk about how even during a "tribulating" time, US govt bonds are still going to be the best of the worst; even after a haircut.

Of course when we are creating the new baseline for the Sharpe Ratio...

Yes, bonds are often overlooked because they are boring. Over the last three years around these parts bonds have killed housing, hell, holding Ka$h has been a better option. Greta points!

Like during the 1930's bonds did very well; also from 2008 to 2009.  In fact from 8-2001 to now bonds fund I owned did better then the high risk growth fund.  When you add risk to the high beta fund the bonds were far better investment. It has been a 35 year bull market so I think this about to end but I could be wrong.

Just a thought,
Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 11, 2016 20:24:11 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Sept 9, 2016 11:59:46 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The question for the bond market - IMHO - is going to be if the FED is going to support a broken government social support system when the great revaluation happens, or if a haircut will be needed to hit the clearing level.

Then lets talk about how even during a "tribulating" time, US govt bonds are still going to be the best of the worst; even after a haircut.

Of course when we are creating the new baseline for the Sharpe Ratio...

Yes, bonds are often overlooked because they are boring. Over the last three years around these parts bonds have killed housing, hell, holding Ka$h has been a better option. Greta points!

Like during the 1930's bonds did very well; also from 2008 to 2009.  In fact from 8-2001 to now bonds fund I owned did better then the high risk growth fund.  When you add risk to the high beta fund the bonds were far better investment. It has been a 35 year bull market so I think this about to end but I could be wrong.

Just a thought,
Bruce

The bull ran so long that it drove rates through the floor!!! New meaning to a bull in a China shop?? During the depression there wasn't massive interest payments on debt and social spending. After the GR China went on a debt binge unheard of before now....

The good news is that energy and economics can make it so that a haircut would be a non issue. Especially because this isn't going to be an issue until the 2019-2020 range.

I mean lets face it, the UST market may still be operational, but the rest of the global government debt market is FUBAR; and unfortunately it's all one market linked with many trillions in derivatives...

JMO.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

Did you catch this? DB is saying what I have been since the end of last year, and they are verifying what you're saying about the duration of the bull run. Problem with their analysis... We aren't leaving a war!

Stay ,

Deutsche Bank says 35-year party is over for bond bulls

Here’s the “best case” outlook:

Put bluntly the best realistic scenario for financial stability in the new era is that bond holders around the world see a slow real adjusted haircut over several years, probably over at least a couple of decades. The best example of this through history was the post WWII period where government debt was at similar levels to that currently seen. Over the next 35 years this debt was successfully eroded by a long period where nominal GDP was notably above bond yields. So bond holders took a large real haircut...

The four decades leading up to 1980 saw very bad overall real returns in fixed income. ... These hugely negative returns occurred largely without defaults and were terrible for investors but they obviously helped reset the financial system which was very over-levered. For such an outcome to have been achieved we needed financial repression and perhaps a reversal of the globalisation trends that had built up before WWI. There were substantial restrictions on the global flow of capital that allowed money to be trapped within countries thus allowing them to direct investments towards domestic policy issues such as financing the huge debt burden.


Such a scenario might seem alien to us in 2016 but it seems invariable that capital restrictions in some form or another will be a feature under this scenario. In many ways this has already happened as financial regulation has encouraged banks, insurance companies and pension funds to buy domestic bonds for non-relative value reasons. This will surely have to continue. Maybe it will be more difficult in today’s integrated world to limit international capital flows in the same ways as after WWII, so perhaps the cushion will come from a long period ahead of money printing and bond purchasing to ensure that there is no run on debt markets given the likely negative real returns.

And here’s the alternative, which they dub the “hard break”:

Rather than an artificial reflation and slow successful non-systemic deleveraging, there is a genuine risk of a more binary outcome where a major country (countries) see(s) a hard default on its debt taking a lot of other debt with it domestically and possibly internationally. This is probably most likely to happen via politics – especially in Europe if a country decides to leave the single currency.

Under this scenario, non-core government bond markets could see huge losses as the central bank backstop bid is removed. Government bonds lose under both scenarios but clearly scenario 2 would be very negative for economies that went through it.

[bimetalaupt]

A+++++,

If you assume Davidson is correct ; what is the best deal to invest in?  Recall the two princes and bonds will be almost worthless, quality wine in bottles with a system to keep it cool?  It least you can drink good wine with your friends.  The bottles would be worth more then the quality bonds.  My German Grandmothers both had a saying: food in the pantry was as good as money in the bank!! Wine in the Eurocave is better, IMH opinion. 


LBJ destroyed the asset base for SS system years ago.  SS is now pay as you go! American and German are now saving more and spending less! Ok, let the Chinese central government solve there own problems! We need American jobs for American workers!  Your thoughts on how to create jobs?


If you have time to hear what Davidson has  to say: pro.strategicinvestment.com/NDPCOLNEW/PNDPS502/?h=true

Just a thought,
Duke

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Duke,

Since we have covered everything that Davidson‎ is talking about in this video around here in one way or another, I can't disagree with what his premise is. The fact that a guy with an illustrious career such as his, to substantiate everything we have talked about is cool - I think him and I would have some pretty good discussion. 

I agree that the debt is not sustainable and that there is a haircut coming down the line(2019-2020). I agree with what you're saying about LBJ, and yes I think the boomer generation is going to bare the brunt of the debt burden that has been created. However, like Davidson said, the boomer generation has 46 trillion in wealth. Ones who prepared for their own retirement instead of banking on the govt are going to be okay. He made me think of a few points that - if his bold predictions ‎don't pan out by E-O-Y - I will expand on. 

Since we have threads on margin debt, velocity of money; have discussed company buy backs and P/E; I can honestly say that nothing he brought up changes my thoughts that China(and the East), not the USA(and Canada) are going to bear the brunt of the next cycle.  

Especially because Davidson is still holding onto the narrative of 6-8% interest rates(we called negative rates before they happened) and he thought the "rest of the world" was going to start getting better. This of course has not, and will not, materialize; and that is because he is also not adressing the war at all, nor the rising nationalism in Europe. 

Which of course ties directly into what deal I'm going to invest in. The sythetic and valued added supply line we have constructed, from there it's a build out into getting back into the family business of farming probably with some hydroponics to‎ back it up. Of course all this income from hard assets will be used to expand tradings systems and studies....

This, coincidentally, is a big part of how we create jobs. By truly creating clean energy jobs and reigniting the industries that created the North American engine in the first place, we restore the principals of productivity and prosperity. 

[bimetalaupt]

A++++++,

Yes I know all of the history and that is what makes me fearful of the yet to come events.  The main reason for the great depression was when bank's losses in Eastern Europe was greater then the capital  healed by the Rothschild bank in Venus.   We saw the same with Daxia Bank during the Great recession. The EU is printing money as fast as the can; we are in for massive reduction in the value of money?  The fool that bought wine with all his money was 100% correct.  Time will tell but I like my Forte Red at 25% alcohol  with my cheese.  Food in the pantry is BETTER THEN FIAT money in the bank!!( IMHO)


My only answer is worms: Keep them in the dark and feed them bull shit!!!!!  Time to go fishing  we will have lot of bate and corn.


Just a thought from who does not know the answer! Duke    

[bimetalaupt]

Cont:

One of my father's favorite story about lack of understanding was about King Ludwick II the Mad of Bavaria. He took two or three old castles and started a wonderful futuristic  castle.  He hired 200 to 300 skilled craftsman for 20 years to build this wonderful home that he only stayed in for 13 nights.  When you think about the results of this the economic benefits to the are lasted for one 100 years and were many times the cost that were all paid for out of the Kings own assets. The area has gone from a very poor area to the one of the riches in Germany. At the time he did this he was thought of a crazy by most. His family gave the castle to the state ( New Swan) for all to enjoy. Some 65 million have paid to see this wonderful home. He was not crazy but so far ahead of his time no one at the time understood.


Just my thoughts,

Duke

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 15, 2016 14:40:47 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

A++++++,

Yes I know all of the history and that is what makes me fearful of the yet to come events.  The main reason for the great depression was when bank's losses in Eastern Europe was greater then the capital  healed by the Rothschild bank in Venus.   We saw the same with Daxia Bank during the Great recession. The EU is printing money as fast as the can; we are in for massive reduction in the value of money?  The fool that bought wine with all his money was 100% correct.  Time will tell but I like my Forte Red at 25% alcohol  with my cheese.  Food in the pantry is BETTER THEN FIAT money in the bank!!( IMHO)


My only answer is worms: Keep them in the dark and feed them bull shit!!!!!  Time to go fishing  we will have lot of bate and corn.


Just a thought from who does not know the answer! Duke    

Duke,

The expression part I made in your post is the key... during... After the Great Depression came WW2. Resources that fuel became the be all end all, and we are 100%++++ more dependent on them now than then.

Farming will be key after we see the price of the land where we want it.

Remember, had Putin not made his incursion into the Ukraine, right now GDP growth would be significantly different. If the Austrian-Franco war has been as big as WW3 is shaping up to be, there would not have been a panic of 1876 due to the sheer scale of resources that we are talking about here.

Later,

[flow5]

"Deutsche Bank says 35-year party is over for bond bulls"

---------------

No, the bond bubble bursts after this Dec.  There is one last hurrah.  And that only means that inflation begins to accelerate relative to the deceleration in R-gDp.  So investors will have to rebalance.  Bond prices will fall in 2017 (up until Dec.).

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, the may hike in December to save face, but currently: thanks Mrs. Yellen for not affectin our current WACC!!

[tyfighter3]

Bonds Risk made simple.

finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-are-way-riskier-than-your-financial-advisor-says-183309431.html

[bimetalaupt]

Oct 1, 2016 16:28:26 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Bonds Risk made simple.

finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-are-way-riskier-than-your-financial-advisor-says-183309431.html

We have gone for return vs risk.  Our math model driven system is now 50% storks , 30% Bonds and 20% Cash or hedging. I am working with more AI study for hedging as bonds have been in a 35 year bull market: too long?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yes, the bull in bonds should have ended in 2012 when the US housing market started heating up again. There has to be a correction in the bond market.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

tyfighter3 to add on to what we were talking about on the Kash is King thread..... Wanted to put this here because Davidson's video above made me realize a few things about the last few years, and this is a bit of an expansion on post #6.

The Central Banks of the world are willing to take us all down the Japanese road, this is on full display with negative rates throughout Europe. We have seen many times over the past several years that instead of letting a bank go down and set off the crisis needed to hit clearing levels, there has been a bail out or some other kind of funny accounting.

The thing is that - and almost everyone aside from a few of us here is missing this - the next crisis isn't set off by a financial event, it's going to be set off by the war.

We know this because everyone is looking at every aspect of the financial world to see, and or predict, the event that sets everything off. When we look at the last crisis it wasn't Lehman or Bear Stern that set off the crisis, it was the insane housing market that essentially nobody saw a problem with.

Same thing right now; start of 2015: Welcome refugees, war still more or less contained to mid east so it's just "how the mid east always is." presently: Europe walling itself off and reinforcing it with military, refugees are now huge problem, media still trying to say it's no big deal yet nationalalist parties are winning elections all over Europe, and Britain is out of EU. War is absolutely raging in the mid east spreading to africa and back to Afghanistan. SE is becoming more and more of a hot bead(same thing in Eastern Europe) and MORE, not less people are displaced than before...

The bottom line right now is that due to the Marxist Islamic propaganda machine the real issue is being ignored and pushed under the rug due to political correctness. Corporate earnings are leveling off for the time being, which actually gives it more room to move in this sideways pattern that we have been experiencing in the last 18 months. Just like with Brexit, President Trumps's election could provide a good opportunity to make returns on the return to the mean of the last 18 months. Just like I stuck to my dates of 2013 and 2015 in the past; I'm sticking to my E-O-Y 2017 into 2018 as the time frame that what's going on in the Eastern Hemisphere set in. As always, just my thoughts.

[bimetalaupt]

Bonds(7.99) have out preformed Growth stocks(5.03%) from 8/27/2001. (Guidestone)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nov 5, 2016 19:01:50 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Bonds(7.99) have out preformed Growth stocks(5.03%) from 8/27/2001. (Guidestone)

, exactly! That's one thing I forgot to expand on. Like Davidson said - and we all know - the Fed has created money to plug the hole. Which also means that the Fed could write off the trillions in UST bonds with zero affect on the bond market. Now that's what we call a free haircut.

[countrygirl]

I bought different bonds, plain old I bonds, did so in 2001 and a few years thereafter, they have done pretty well.

They finally changed them though so the fixed component was nothing so not worth buying, they never go below

zero. The variable part hinges on the CPI. Many of them have earned 4 to 5% or so a year, wish I had bought the limit when they first came out but wasn't sure about them. I bought about $60k worth, now they are over $110k so very happy with them. They will earn for many years more and likely will just be passed on to our son or his son and never used by us. It's nice knowing if we need them they are there.  The other part of our earnings is rental property, did well in Texas, had 10 renters, sold most and will soon have 6 up here. We have 2 more houses to remodel, do the work ourselves.  We don't trust other forms of investing much anymore.

Found out about them from Bottom Line magazine, most people never heard of them.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nov 5, 2016 23:48:33 GMT -5 countrygirl said:

I bought different bonds, plain old I bonds, did so in 2001 and a few years thereafter, they have done pretty well.

They finally changed them though so the fixed component was nothing so not worth buying, they never go below

zero. The variable part hinges on the CPI. Many of them have earned 4 to 5% or so a year, wish I had bought the limit when they first came out but wasn't sure about them. I bought about $60k worth, now they are over $110k so very happy with them. They will earn for many years more and likely will just be passed on to our son or his son and never used by us. It's nice knowing if we need them they are there.  The other part of our earnings is rental property, did well in Texas, had 10 renters, sold most and will soon have 6 up here. We have 2 more houses to remodel, do the work ourselves.  We don't trust other forms of investing much anymore.

Found out about them from Bottom Line magazine, most people never heard of them.

CG, interesting. It sounds like you bought some kind of inflation linked bond. There is no maturity date on them?? The value is great now, but if, and I do mean if, rates start to creep back to that 4% rage that part could very well change.

Congratulations on the rentals. Sounds like you guys have done well for yourselves!

[countrygirl]

Maturity Rules for Series I Savings Bonds

All Series I Savings Bonds have a final maturity (stop earning interest) of 30 years from the issue date on the bond. All I Savings Bonds post their final maturity interest on the first day of the final maturity month.

Cashing in a Series I Savings Bond

I Savings Bonds must be at least 1 year old before they are eligible for cash-in.

There is a 3 month penalty for cashing in an I Bond before it is five years old. For example, if you buy a bond and redeem it 24 months later, you'll get back your original investment and 21 months of interest. The value of the bonds would be based on the announced rates applied over the initial 21-month period.

To cash-in an I Savings Bond, simply bring it down to your local bank. Be sure to call first, some banks do not handle the cashing in of US Savings Bonds.

Only in times of a Federal Disaster being declared, can a Savings Bond be cashed-in before 1 year - however, the three-month penalty for cash-in prior to 5 years still applies.

MAKE SURE YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR BONDS ARE WORTH BEFORE CASHING IN! Savingsbonds.com has saved Savings Bond investors like yourself hundreds of dollars at cash-in because the bank calculated the wrong value for their bonds. Use our Savings Bond Calculator to find out exactly what your bonds are worth before you cash them in!

Interest Rate Rules

I bonds earn interest from the first day of their issue month. You can redeem them at any time after a 12-month holding period. They are an accrual-type security.

They increase in value monthly and the interest is paid when you redeem the bond. I bonds are sold at face value; i.e., you pay $100 for a $100 I bond. I bonds grow in value with inflation-indexed earnings for up to 30 years.

Interest is posted on the 1st of the month.

Interest Rate Calculations

The Series I Savings Bond earnings rate is a combination of two separate rates; a fixed rate and an inflation rate.


The I Bond Fixed Rate: The I Bond Inflation (variable) Rate:
Announced each May 1st and November 1st Announced each May 1st and November 1st
Applies to all bonds issued during the six months period beginning with the announcement date. Based on changes in the Consumer Price Indes for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Remains the same for the life of the bond. Changes every 6 month anniversary to the new variable rate set in the most recent month of May or November. The variable rate is then combined with the fixed rate to determine the earning rate of the bond for the next six months.
How the I Savings Bond Rate is Calculated:


Fixed rates and semiannual inflation rates are combined to determine composite earnings rates. An I bond's composite earnings rate changes every six months after its issue date. For example, the earnings rate for an I bond issued in March 2000 changes every March and September.

Here's how the composite rate for I Savings Bonds issued Nov 1, 2016 thru Apr 30, 2017 is set:

Fixed Rate: 0.00%
Semiannual inflation rate = 1.37%

Composite rate = [Fixed rate + (2 x Semiannual inflation rate) + (Fixed rate x Semiannual inflation rate)]
Composite rate = [0.0000 + (2 x 0.0137) + (0.0000 x 0.0137)]
Composite rate = 2.76%



I Bond Calculator - Current Values of I Bonds Online

Looking for values of US Savings Bonds? Use our Savings Bond Calculator to value your savings bonds online right now. Its free and helpful!

What If the Variable Rate Drops to Zero (or Deflation occurs)

If the variable rate of I Savings Bonds drops to zero or below, the fixed rate off-sets the negative until it hits zero.

An I Savings Bond is guaranteed to never drop below zero and will never lose interest or value.

An Example of a Zero Variable Rate: Let us suppose the I Savings Bond you own has a fixed rate of 1.5%, and the current variable rate is 0%. In this senario, your I Bond will earn 1.5%.

An Example of a Negative (deflation) Variable Rate: Let us suppose the I Savings Bond you own has a fixed rate of 1.5%, and the current variable rate is -2%, or that there has been deflation over the last 6-month period. In this senario, your I Bond will earn 0%, (not -0.5%! I Bonds never drop below 0%!).

Second Example of a Negative (deflation) Variable Rate: Let us suppose the I Savings Bond you own has a fixed rate of 1.5%, and the current variable rate is -0.5%, deflation over the last 6-month period. In this senario, your I Bond will earn 1%.

Past I Bond Fixed Rates

The following is a list of fixed rates for I bonds and their issue periods.

Issue Period Fixed Rate
5/1998 - 10/1998 3.4%
11/1998 - 04/1999 3.3%
5/1999 - 10/1999 3.3%
11/1999 - 04/2000 3.4%
5/2000 - 10/2000 3.6%
11/2000 - 04/2001 3.4%
5/2001 - 10/2001 3.0%
11/2001 - 04/2002 2.0%
5/2002 - 10/2002 2.0%
11/2002 - 04/2003 1.6%
5/2003 - 10/2003 1.1%
11/2003 - 04/2004 1.1%
5/2004 - 10/2004 1.0%
11/2004 - 04/2005 1.0%
5/2005 - 10/2005 1.2%
11/2005 - 04/2006 1.0%
5/2006 - 10/2006 1.4%
11/2006 - 04/2007 1.4%
5/2007 - 10/2007 1.3%
11/2007 - 04/2008 1.2%
5/2008 - 10/2008 0.0%
11/2008 - 04/2009 0.7%
5/2009 - 10/2009 0.1%
11/2009 - 04/2010 0.3%
5/2010 - 10/2010 0.2%
11/2010 - 04/2011 0.0%
5/2011 - 10/2011 0.0%
11/2011 - 04/2012 0.0%
5/2012 - 10/2012 0.0%
11/2012 - 04/2013 0.0%
5/2013 - 10/2013 0.0%
11/2013 - 04/2014 0.2%
5/2014 - 10/2014 0.1%
11/2014 - 04/2015 0.0%
5/2015 - 10/2015 0.0%
11/2015 - 04/2016 0.1%
5/2016 - 10/2016 0.1%


Who can Own I Savings Bonds?

Individuals, corporations, associations, public or private organizations, and fiduciaries can own paper Series I Savings Bonds.

You can own U.S. Savings Bonds if you have a Social Security Number and you're a:
•Resident of the United States.
•Citizen of the United States living abroad (must have U.S. address of record).
•Civilian employee of the United States regardless of residence.
•Minor. Unlike other securities, minors may own U.S. Savings Bonds.


Tax Rules and Advantages

The interest earned on your savings bonds is subject to federal income tax, which can be deferred until redemption, final maturity, or other taxable disposition, whichever occurs first. Savings bonds are subject to estate, inheritance, gift or other excise taxes, whether federal or state. I bonds are subject to all federal taxes imposed under the IRS code of 1986, as amended.

You have the choice of reporting interest earned on savings bonds in several ways. Whenever you report savings bonds interest, it should be included with other interest income on your federal income tax return.

Cash basis reporting - Federal tax is deferred until the year of final maturity, redemption, or other taxable disposition, whichever occurs first.

Accural basis reporting - You report interest annually each year as it accrues. Once you start, you must continue to report interest earned annually for all savings bonds and notes you own and any you may acquire. This may be advantageous for I bonds in a child's name.

Using Savings Bonds Tax-Free for Education

Special tax benefits are available to qualified owners of I Savings Bonds under the Education Savings Bond Program. For more information on this program visit our page on the Tax-Free Savings Bonds for Education Program.

What does an I Bond look like?

[countrygirl]

I quit buying them when the fixed component went so low, the maturity is 30 years.

If the CPI goes up we profit by staying even and ahead by the fixed component.

By the end of next year or when our rentals all get on the market we should be back to a

low 6 figure income. Makes for a nice retirement. That's plenty for us we could make more

but don't need it.

We make sure they have new furnaces, new roofs or buy them with new roofs, good

electrical, plumbing and systems. Then we do cosmetics, with decent renters little

more then painting and new flooring will be needed for the next 10 years, by then

we are 80 and doubt we are able to do all that much anyway so will have gotten our

money back plus having income to live on without using our principal. The return

this year on rentals will be 15.8% and we live in a depressed area. People here

do not provide quality housing and there is a crying need for it. Renting for less then

we could in Houston area but the housing we buy is less also and we buy for cash only.

We became an LLC this year so we can insure for what we want and we have greatly

reduced our insurance expense. They were insuring for replacement value, we don't

need that all we wanted was to get our money back if one burned, not going to rebuild

them anyway so with Berkshire Hathaway you can structure your coverage how you

want it. I reduced insurance costs from $875 per house to $250, we used an insurance

broker, we are from here and my husband knows the owner of it, good, honest people.

Yet we still have an umbrella policy for the LLC and for us privately to protect

our assets.  Been a good move for us.  I do all the prep work as that is my education but

haven't had to do our taxes for 15 years, I could, but figure we will just go to a CPA

and found a good one as I'm sure I'm not up on all the laws anymore.  Penny wise and

pound foolish at times, not going to be. So unless something totally unforeseen happens

I think our retirement will be a good one. We are just small potatoes folks and not into

all the high finance and stocks so will never get that kind of big money many will but

this works for us.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ah, those boring old savings bonds; nothing like Lewis Ranieri and those fancy MBS... Apologies, I see what you're saying now.

Brilliant move starting the LLC, and great info on the insurance, I didn't realize that was an option. I agree whole hearted about the CPA; great move there as well, IMO.

See an need, fill a need. Sounds like you guys have a good plan and being in an area where demand outstrips supply will always bring decent returns(15% is great!) Personally, I don't think you need to be a big cheese to enjoy the benefits of dividends. A simple index fund reduces your risk, while allowing you to take part in broad gains in the market. Ie) certain companies - Ford for example - are up an insane amount since the bottom in '09, while the broader market is up roughly 300%. However, Ford could have easily followed GM into bankruptcy, and the market would still be up.

[countrygirl]

One of DH's former employers 401k's just switched last year to Vanguard Funds, some excellent choices, I'm

looking at them and have moved carefully into some. We are cash heavy in it right now, not comfortable

with things, if trump wins I expect the funds to plummet, likely good time to pick up some good performing

ones.  Also some lots I picked up around Houston while there and now sold 4 small ones at a tidy profit, have

another lined up to sell next year, tax planning, that one is at Plano. We had 10 renters in Houston have sold

all but our duplex and another lot, I've had rentals for 15 years.

Another 401k is in the Principal Group and it hasn't done badly either. DH also waited till age 69 to retire,

he wanted to go 1 more year to 70, but the job quit on him!! Another African country and corruption

got the money before the project did, he had been there before same issue, so he went ahead and

retired, this really upped his retirement benefit.  Good thing as our medicare plus supplement and

some scrips I get, part D is a joke, is triple what we were paying when he worked, but had expected that

to happen the way costs were rising.  Have a good Plan F so it covers everything. He earned the bulk of

the money and is risk adverse, I do the accounting and investing but we talk about it.  We both work on

properties.

I can't think of anything I've overlooked, no debt, all assets paid for, newer vehicles. Have a trust set up,

POA, Living will, wills, even burial site purchased, head stone set and paid for, hubby like to died, ha, ha

when I did that. I am a compulsive planner. Started gifting our son this year, hope to next year.

My one big money pit, waste of money is my motorhome, old and right now we are having the cummins diesel overhauled instead of buying a newer one, it was a high end motorhome 1992 American Eagle.  Love it, total waste of money!! But

will be lucky to drive it 5 more years so foolish to buy another!!

That's us in a nutshell, not traditional investors by any means but it has worked for us.

[countrygirl]

Erase the feeling of confidence, looks like Trump might win. I figure we will go

the way of Venzuela pretty quickly, the country will be in the crapper if he does

some of the stuff he is talking about. I think I will be sick.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

CG, you remind me of a poster that used to post every once and a while around here, Pat. In fact, I have to wonder because I know her husband worked the patch in Africa/ the Mid East, and also recently retired. Pat also had lots of rentals...

I can understand that you are feeling down at the moment due to your choice losing.(I'm guessing due to your reaction that DT wasn't your choice).

First off, comparing the US to Venezuela, Greece, or any other small country with limited resources is like comparing a Ferrari to a bicycle. It's also not accurate to compare the US to the Roman empire either, as the US isn't - nor will it ever be - an empire. These are all stories and angles used to sell media.

Conversely, people that think that globalization is done make me LOL!! What's changed is the manner of globalization. For the last 8-10 years globalization has been spread through a BS government entity called the UN in an attempt to push a liberalized, secular agenda on the entire world. As we can see through Brexit, the rise of the far right in Europe, and now the election of Donald Trump; people aren't willing to have that agenda shoved down their throats anymore.

That fact of the matter is that globalization is a natural part of the businesses cycle. It started in Denmark and the UK in the 1500's and has continued to grow. In fact, the only way we can progress much further economically at this point is if the world operates as a globalized business unit.

Now, if you read the other threads on this area of the board, you will see that I am convinced that going into 2018 we will be entering a full on global conflict. This is part to due with the UN, part to due with religion, but mostly because humans continue to perceive Earth as their Kingdom. Ideological differences have put the brakes on the natural growth of the business cycle, and before it moves forward the entire world will come together under the word; which is EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY!!!!

Just like the man said.

[countrygirl]

I am Pat, erased everything and changed my sign on.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ha! It was sounding to familiar.

Glad you're back! You two are golden, Pat. No debt, tons of equity coming your way. Boring old savings bonds to pass on.

You guys need to get a new RV and go have fun exploring the country, enjoy being smart and hard working all these years! JMO of course.

My wife was telling me today that; from 1929-2013 when Republicans have taken the Whitehouse over the market ended the year down 8% on average. Now, personally I believe - and I've stated this elsewhere - that if earnings level off and Trump wins the Presidency we could see DOW 20k. I'm not saying that's where we are going, but that's where we are.

What this means that with 2% GDP growth the market is now becoming "fully valued" until this gets totally FUBARD in the East.. it comes down to growth over income. If you want to add to your income, get a big chunk of those funds to work at the next 2-5% drop, be it tomorrow or next week. From the sounds of it, that principle will probably be past on to grow for future generations as well?? There could very easily be a nice sale in the next few months, but at this point by the end of 2017 the US economy will be ready to absorb the blow of what's coming, so don't expect the world to end.

Think about it like this; Trump is a business man and while he may not be perfect, he gets it. The man commands respect, and knows how to get things done. Yes, there are ways to renegotiate the debt - this will come at the FUBAR stage of things - and there are also many ways to get some things done with larges piles of money laying around.

Ottawa offers to renegotiate NAFTA in effort to warm ties with Trump

The bonus here is Trump is like Rodney Dangerfield on Caddy Shack. He's going shake it up with all these stuffed shirt politicians...

We have know each other for a long time and I'm sure your worried, Pat. But the dirty, sleazy media has blown a lot of stuff way out of purportion, this is going to be a good thing.

[countrygirl]

Time will tell, just glad we are positioned well. Going to sell the Houston duplex, likely

get 6 figures from it, likely low 6 or so, but it backs to commercial property and I have had feelers

on it so far from investors.  I figure a shopping center or something the area around it is booming,

just back from corner and I think all of it will be bought up for a commercial development.

That money will go back to replace what we have spent.  I hate to have to pay the capital gains

though so was toying with the idea of an exchange but not sure if I want to do that.  The area

we are in is not exactly a growth area. There will be little appreciation of properties here.

We hope to pass to son, he is as tight with a buck as his dad, good head on his shoulders, they

at 47 had their first and likely only child, his wife is 10 years younger and is dual Russian/American

citizen.

Will decide after first of year.  Besides that also somewhat of a prepper, have food, supplies, you

name it back. and hubby and I both have lots of skills.  DH thinks I'm a little off on the prepping,

said I'm wasting money, my gut says do it and I follow my gut a lot. I see unrest with Trump in

and watching the news tonight its already starting.  People are afraid and rightly so, they are going

to gut social programs and womens rights, plus many other programs benefiting people.  I fear what

they will do to SS, something repubs have wanted to gut for years, that will cause untold suffering.

[bimetalaupt]

U.S. 10-year TIPS breakeven rate highest since July 2015



Reuters ReutersNovember 10, 20161 Comment

NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. bond market's gauge on investors' inflation expectations in 10 years on Thursday rose to its highest level since July 2015 on the view U.S. president elect Donald Trump's policies would raise the federal deficit and hurt the dollar.



The 10-year breakeven rate, or yield difference between 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and 10-year regular Treasuries, was last quoted at 1.89 percent, up from 1.82 percent late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data


CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX)

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