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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 4, 2016 9:06:00 GMT -5
How is this thread not bubbling with discussion over Sen. Cruz' dropping out of the race? I at least expected to hear some mourning from DJ about the now-100% chance of Mr. Trump winning the Republican nomination. Because he has been out of the race for at least month. I think DJ is on the west coast, so he may just now be pouring his whiskey into his first coffee of the morning. He was the only thing preventing Mr. Trump from winning the nomination outright, and that wasn't a lock. I realize that Ms. Clinton is going to claim the 2016 presidency regardless of anything that's happened over the past two years, but this still technically qualifies as a big deal if we ignore that fact. Poor Nate Silver is hitting the ground at terminal velocity right about now.   |
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Post by Opti on May 4, 2016 9:11:06 GMT -5
Nice how bankruptcies are just a part of business... but if an indivdiual does it they are the scum of humanity.... according to who? YMers in general on any thread about bankruptcy or related subjects. And big pieces of the Internet. |
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Post by ArchietheDragon on May 4, 2016 9:13:05 GMT -5
YMers in general on any thread about bankruptcy or related subjects. And big pieces of the Internet. most of the internet is porn. |
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Post by OldCoyote on May 4, 2016 10:51:39 GMT -5
How many of those jobs though are actually open to Americans? If only 10,000 of those jobs are actually open to Americans, its much less impressive.
Since 2010, nearly 300 United States residents have applied or been referred for jobs as waiters, waitresses, cooks and housekeepers there. But according to federal records, only 17 have been hired.
In all but a handful of cases, Mar-a-Lago sought to fill the jobs with hundreds of foreign guest workers from Romania and other countries.
But he has also pursued more than 500 visas for foreign workers at Mar-a-Lago since 2010, according to the United States Department of Labor, while hundreds of domestic applicants failed to get the same jobs.
www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/us/politics/donald-trump-taps-foreign-work-force-for-his-florida-club.html?_r=0
Maybe they were not qualified! |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 4, 2016 17:57:56 GMT -5
How is this thread not bubbling with discussion over Sen. Cruz' dropping out of the race? I at least expected to hear some mourning from DJ about the now-100% chance of Mr. Trump winning the Republican nomination. it is never 100%, even for someone with enough delegates. but sure, let's say 90+%. |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 4, 2016 17:58:36 GMT -5
How is this thread not bubbling with discussion over Sen. Cruz' dropping out of the race? I at least expected to hear some mourning from DJ about the now-100% chance of Mr. Trump winning the Republican nomination. Because he has been out of the race for at least month. I think DJ is on the west coast, so he may just now be pouring his whiskey into his first coffee of the morning. DJ is 9 time zones East of the West Coast, Arch. |
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Post by dondub on May 4, 2016 18:01:21 GMT -5
OK...some Chartreuse into your evening cappuccino.  |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 4, 2016 18:06:47 GMT -5
OK...some Chartreuse into your evening cappuccino. oh, i am drinking whiskey, alright, but it is 1AM here.  |
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 4, 2016 18:15:10 GMT -5
How is this thread not bubbling with discussion over Sen. Cruz' dropping out of the race? I at least expected to hear some mourning from DJ about the now-100% chance of Mr. Trump winning the Republican nomination. it is never 100%, even for someone with enough delegates. but sure, let's say 90+%. What possibilities would you say make up that remaining 10%? |
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Post by billisonboard on May 4, 2016 18:18:13 GMT -5
it is never 100%, even for someone with enough delegates. but sure, let's say 90+%. What possibilities would you say make up that remaining 10%? Alien abduction would be one.  |
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Post by dondub on May 4, 2016 18:48:48 GMT -5
1am is evening in France. |
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 4, 2016 19:31:42 GMT -5
What possibilities would you say make up that remaining 10%? Alien abduction would be one. The breakdown is: 4% - GOP leadership decides "what the heck, let's commit suicide" and cheats Mr. Trump out of the nomination 2% - Mr. Trump realizes he's running for the world's most thankless job and voluntarily hands it to Mr. Kasich 2% - Pres. Obama declares a coup and executes all up-and-coming political rivals 1% - Mr. Trump chokes to death on a churro while campaigning in California 1% - Aliens, nuclear holocaust, DJ going postal, Mr. Trump revealed to be ex-KGB spy, other miscellany |
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Post by ArchietheDragon on May 4, 2016 20:59:05 GMT -5
Because he has been out of the race for at least month. I think DJ is on the west coast, so he may just now be pouring his whiskey into his first coffee of the morning. DJ is 9 time zones East of the West Coast, Arch. vacation? or holiday? |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 1:28:27 GMT -5
1am is evening in France. i am in Amsterdam. it is a surprisingly sleepy little town. |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 1:29:09 GMT -5
it is never 100%, even for someone with enough delegates. but sure, let's say 90+%. What possibilities would you say make up that remaining 10%? spontaneous human combustion, and alien abduction. edit: i can't believe bills beat me to that. |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 1:30:12 GMT -5
DJ is 9 time zones East of the West Coast, Arch. vacation? or holiday? neither. i was here on "business" (i was touring with a band). |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 1:32:07 GMT -5
Alien abduction would be one. The breakdown is: 4% - GOP leadership decides "what the heck, let's commit suicide" and cheats Mr. Trump out of the nomination 2% - Mr. Trump realizes he's running for the world's most thankless job and voluntarily hands it to Mr. Kasich 2% - Pres. Obama declares a coup and executes all up-and-coming political rivals 1% - Mr. Trump chokes to death on a churro while campaigning in California 1% - Aliens, nuclear holocaust, DJ going postal, Mr. Trump revealed to be ex-KGB spy, other miscellany you're funny about the going postal part. the reason i don't want Trump to become the nominee is not PERSONAL. i think it is bad for the GOP and bad for the country. in other words, i feel the same way about it as i would feel about my mom going on drinking binges. |
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 5, 2016 10:11:42 GMT -5
Kasich has dropped out, so we can scratch that 2% out of the equation too.  If Trump wins the primary and gets the nomination- he WILL win in the general election UNLESS enough conservatives defect. what makes you think so? the reason i ask is that Nate Silver doesn't think so, and he is basically, for all intents and purposes, NEVER wrong. You've claimed it isn't perso... Wait? What? That's strange. How did this January 27th quote wind up in my post? It must be a glitch or something.  I've got it! "Natementum!" |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 10:36:02 GMT -5
Kasich has dropped out, so we can scratch that 2% out of the equation too. what makes you think so? the reason i ask is that Nate Silver doesn't think so, and he is basically, for all intents and purposes, NEVER wrong. You've claimed it isn't perso... Wait? What? That's strange. How did this January 27th quote wind up in my post? It must be a glitch or something. I've got it! "Natementum!" that wind up is mostly qualitative statements rather than individual stats. sorry if we misunderstood each other. |
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 5, 2016 10:56:51 GMT -5
Kasich has dropped out, so we can scratch that 2% out of the equation too. You've claimed it isn't perso... Wait? What? That's strange. How did this January 27th quote wind up in my post? It must be a glitch or something. I've got it! "Natementum!" that wind up is mostly qualitative statements rather than individual stats. sorry if we misunderstood each other. If you have the best and most accurate statistical data in the world and yet declare wrong conclusions with near certainty for well over nine months, what does that say about you as a pollster? Take Karl Rove, for example. He was considered infallible until the 2008 election, at which point his predictions fell apart like a cheap bag of garbage. |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 11:04:43 GMT -5
that wind up is mostly qualitative statements rather than individual stats. sorry if we misunderstood each other. If you have the best and most accurate statistical data in the world and yet declare wrong conclusions with near certainty for well over nine months, what does that say about you as a pollster? Take Karl Rove, for example. He was considered infallible until the 2008 election, at which point his predictions fell apart like a cheap bag of garbage. the problem with Rove is that he (and Paul, and a few others) believed with absolute certainty he was right, and he made a lot of unqualified statements because of it. kind of like a couple of days ago, when you forgot you brought law into the conversation. i was never sure that Trump would lose. i always felt he had a chance. and yes, i am surprised it turned out this way, but i don't believe that i ever stated that this was any LESS than 40% probable. in terms of the individual races, Silver did pretty well. better than most people here, including myself, and, no doubt, you. if you want to bet against him in the future, be my guest, but i don't recommend it. edit: anticipated response to post 1254: hickle likes it, and Virgil doubles down, and dredges up a few posts i forgot about to show me just how embarrassed i should be..  edit2: Virgil, if you are planning one of your 500 word replies, i am boarding in less than half an hour for NYC. i am going to finish my book on ISIS on the plane and eat something, so don't expect a response today. |
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 5, 2016 11:29:10 GMT -5
If you have the best and most accurate statistical data in the world and yet declare wrong conclusions with near certainty for well over nine months, what does that say about you as a pollster? Take Karl Rove, for example. He was considered infallible until the 2008 election, at which point his predictions fell apart like a cheap bag of garbage. the problem with Rove is that he believed with absolute certainty he was right, and he made a lot of unqualified statements because of it. kind of like a couple of days ago, when you forgot you brought law into the conversation. i was never sure that Trump would lose. i always felt he had a chance. and yes, i am surprised it turned out this way, but i don't believe that i ever stated that this was any LESS than 40% probable. edit: anticipated response to the above post: hickle likes it, and Virgil doubles down, and dredges up a few posts i forgot about to show me just how embarrassed i should be.. edit2: if you are planning one of your 500 word replies, i am boarding in less than half an hour for NYC. i am going to finish my book on ISIS on the plane and eat something, so don't expect a response today. Just keeping you honest.  Perhaps you didn't intend it as such, but your reply to Paul on the 27th reads: "Don't doubt Nate Silver. EVER." If Paul could handle a little ribbing about his wide-eyed zeal, so can you. And it's not as if you haven't chapped my hide over sites like e.g. ZH. Besides that, shouldn't you technically be happy that Mr. Trump won the nomination? If memory serves, you despised every other Republican candidate more. Hence this should be the best outcome in your view, no? P.S. I won't double down or dredge up the dozens of posts where you extol Mr. Silver as near-infallible, but you owe me one. |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 5, 2016 11:33:32 GMT -5
the problem with Rove is that he believed with absolute certainty he was right, and he made a lot of unqualified statements because of it. kind of like a couple of days ago, when you forgot you brought law into the conversation. i was never sure that Trump would lose. i always felt he had a chance. and yes, i am surprised it turned out this way, but i don't believe that i ever stated that this was any LESS than 40% probable. edit: anticipated response to the above post: hickle likes it, and Virgil doubles down, and dredges up a few posts i forgot about to show me just how embarrassed i should be.. edit2: if you are planning one of your 500 word replies, i am boarding in less than half an hour for NYC. i am going to finish my book on ISIS on the plane and eat something, so don't expect a response today. Just keeping you honest. Perhaps you didn't intend it as such, but your reply to Paul on the 27th reads: "Don't doubt Nate Silver. EVER." If Paul could handle a little ribbing about his wide-eyed zeal, so can you. Besides that, shouldn't you technically be happy that Mr. Trump won the nomination? If memory serves, you despised every other Republican candidate more. Hence this should technically be the best outcome in your view, no? P.S. I won't double down or dredge up the dozens of posts where you extol Mr. Silver as near-infallible, but you owe me one. of course it was sarcastic. he makes mistakes. just way less often than most of us. and no, i like Kasich better, and Rand Paul a LOT better. but neither of them are running, currently. if this is about me and my mancrush on Silver, i will readily concede it. but this thread is about the nomination. |
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Post by tallguy on May 10, 2016 21:34:40 GMT -5
So apparently Cruz was talking about restarting his campaign if he won Nebraska. Anyone think that losing by 40 will be "close enough" for him? |
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2016 22:52:22 GMT -5
so, Trump is going to also have to wait until June 7th to wrap up the nomination, and he is going to have to wait 1-2 hours longer than Clinton. it will be either NM or SD that hands him his victory, not NJ. it really is a shame that Kasich and Cruz were not more competitive. either of them could have won CA, if they had spent time and money here, and it might have stopped Trump. instead, they are towing the line. edit: they could have made that case elsewhere, in the proportional states: we are going to win in CA, force the nominating process to the convention, and win on the second ballot. it would have been a good civics lesson for EVERYONE on how to win the NOMINATION. but i think the GOP started sipping the Trump Koolaid, thinking that he can actually win. |
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Post by Value Buy on May 26, 2016 21:21:44 GMT -5
so, Trump is going to also have to wait until June 7th to wrap up the nomination, and he is going to have to wait 1-2 hours longer than Clinton. it will be either NM or SD that hands him his victory, not NJ. it really is a shame that Kasich and Cruz were not more competitive. either of them could have won CA, if they had spent time and money here, and it might have stopped Trump. instead, they are towing the line. edit: they could have made that case elsewhere, in the proportional states: we are going to win in CA, force the nominating process to the convention, and win on the second ballot. it would have been a good civics lesson for EVERYONE on how to win the NOMINATION. but i think the GOP started sipping the Trump Koolaid, thinking that he can actually win. Knock knock Anyone home? Thought I would finalize this thread with the official announcement. Trump has officially wrapped up the Republican nomination delegate battle before the primary in California on June 7th. Or New Jersey And so many said it would never happen. Trumpmentumn!! is on the way! |
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Post by Opti on May 26, 2016 21:26:06 GMT -5
Many hoped it wouldn't happen. I am one of them!
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Post by djAdvocate on May 26, 2016 21:33:43 GMT -5
so, Trump is going to also have to wait until June 7th to wrap up the nomination, and he is going to have to wait 1-2 hours longer than Clinton. it will be either NM or SD that hands him his victory, not NJ. it really is a shame that Kasich and Cruz were not more competitive. either of them could have won CA, if they had spent time and money here, and it might have stopped Trump. instead, they are towing the line. edit: they could have made that case elsewhere, in the proportional states: we are going to win in CA, force the nominating process to the convention, and win on the second ballot. it would have been a good civics lesson for EVERYONE on how to win the NOMINATION. but i think the GOP started sipping the Trump Koolaid, thinking that he can actually win. Knock knock Anyone home? Thought I would finalize this thread with the official announcement. Trump has officially wrapped up the Republican nomination delegate battle before the primary in California on June 7th. Or New Jersey And so many said it would never happen. Trumpmentumn!! is on the way! i am not clear on how that is possible. edit: there are apparently things i don't understand about the nominating process. did some "uncommitted" delegates move over to him or something? how about posting an article rather than just doing the banana dance? |
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Post by Value Buy on May 26, 2016 21:51:44 GMT -5
My internet service is wonky tonight. When I click on any article, it comes up unavailable at this time. Do an internet search. there is plenty of articles naming him the winner today. CNN FOX and MSNBC are all discussing the results tonight --all state he has all that is needed right now. And I did not use any bananas to do a dance!  Now I did! |
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Post by Value Buy on May 26, 2016 22:23:05 GMT -5
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