djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 20:40:57 GMT -5
Florida- Trump Ohio- probably Trump No brokered convention Where can I order a couple of cases of Trump water? There are a couple of people I know that would choke on it This is in real life, and no one was targeted on this board. I really want to start handing out a few bottles of it. Ohio is not "probably Trump". you can say "maybe Trump" if you like. and sure, you can prop up that loser's enterprises all you like. it is a free country.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 9, 2016 21:18:50 GMT -5
Florida- Trump Ohio- probably Trump No brokered convention Where can I order a couple of cases of Trump water? There are a couple of people I know that would choke on it This is in real life, and no one was targeted on this board. I really want to start handing out a few bottles of it. Ohio is not "probably Trump". you can say "maybe Trump" if you like. and sure, you can prop up that loser's enterprises all you like. it is a free country. The man is many things, but he's not a loser.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 23:00:50 GMT -5
Ohio is not "probably Trump". you can say "maybe Trump" if you like. and sure, you can prop up that loser's enterprises all you like. it is a free country. The man is many things, but he's not a loser. you can say that for about 8 months more.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 23:19:00 GMT -5
He has lost 2 marriages. For a moral person such as Virgil, I'm sure he can find some Biblical excoriation over that losing.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 23:21:34 GMT -5
He has lost 2 marriages. For a moral person such as Virgil, I'm sure he can find some Biblical excoriation over that losing. i think he is the biggest loser i have ever seen. the grandeur of his loserness outshines all other losers. Virgil is blinded by the grandeur, and can't see the loser.
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 9, 2016 23:33:00 GMT -5
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Post by tallguy on Mar 9, 2016 23:33:09 GMT -5
I think that's a different show.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 23:50:09 GMT -5
He has obviously lost some key foundational hair follicles.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 2:01:34 GMT -5
i just noticed something about the primaries i think Trump is likely to win. he needs 253 delegates within the next week to stay on track to win the nomination. if he loses Missouri AND Ohio (i think this is a likely outcome), he is going to have less than that. so, either i am guessing wrong about one of those states, or the PROBABLE result will become a brokered convention. that does not mean it will happen. Trump might run the table from next week on out. but that is where it will be next week. and here Virgil had almost got me to give up. edit: just to be completely clear, i think he will win less than 240 delegates next week, possibly less than 220. that will put him with 680-700. 715 is his target. if he wins EITHER Missouri OR Ohio, he will be well above that. if he loses both, he will miss that mark.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 10, 2016 4:13:56 GMT -5
He has lost 2 marriages. For a moral person such as Virgil, I'm sure he can find some Biblical excoriation over that losing. It makes him immoral, and it's not exactly his only moral flaw. But immorality doesn't make one a loser.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 10, 2016 4:35:16 GMT -5
He has lost 2 marriages. For a moral person such as Virgil, I'm sure he can find some Biblical excoriation over that losing. i think he is the biggest loser i have ever seen. the grandeur of his loserness outshines all other losers. Virgil is blinded by the grandeur, and can't see the loser. Let's hear your definition of "loser", then. Mine is "somebody who loses". Mr. Trump hasn't lost. He hasn't lost the Republican race, he hasn't lost the election. He's famous and loved by millions. He's been more successful than unsuccessful in business and is worth billions. He's got five kids. He's published books, established an international brand name, run successful TV series and fashion shows, and is perennially married to a young supermodel...s. People care about what he thinks, what he does, where he goes. If you mean "loser" in the sense of King Solomon's lamentations on having shot his entire life on wine, women, and song, winding up miserable and hollow in spite of owning half the known world: sure, I'll agree with you. But that's definitely not how the world defines "loser".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 10:53:38 GMT -5
i think he is the biggest loser i have ever seen. the grandeur of his loserness outshines all other losers. Virgil is blinded by the grandeur, and can't see the loser. Let's hear your definition of "loser", then. Mine is "somebody who loses". Mr. Trump hasn't lost. He hasn't lost the Republican race, he hasn't lost the election. He's famous and loved by millions. He's been more successful than unsuccessful in business and is worth billions. He's got five kids. He's published books, established an international brand name, run successful TV series and fashion shows, and is perennially married to a young supermodel...s. People care about what he thinks, what he does, where he goes. If you mean "loser" in the sense of King Solomon's lamentations on having shot his entire life on wine, women, and song, winding up miserable and hollow in spite of owning half the known world: sure, I'll agree with you. But that's definitely not how the world defines "loser". the latter. and yes, you are right, in THIS case (and not generally speaking), i am using the LESS ACCEPTED MEANING to apply to Trump. mostly because i have a feeling that it would piss him off. edit: i also think he is going to lose the GE and vanish into history. what could be worse for a man like that?
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 10, 2016 12:38:53 GMT -5
Let's hear your definition of "loser", then. Mine is "somebody who loses". Mr. Trump hasn't lost. He hasn't lost the Republican race, he hasn't lost the election. He's famous and loved by millions. He's been more successful than unsuccessful in business and is worth billions. He's got five kids. He's published books, established an international brand name, run successful TV series and fashion shows, and is perennially married to a young supermodel...s. People care about what he thinks, what he does, where he goes. If you mean "loser" in the sense of King Solomon's lamentations on having shot his entire life on wine, women, and song, winding up miserable and hollow in spite of owning half the known world: sure, I'll agree with you. But that's definitely not how the world defines "loser". the latter. and yes, you are right, in THIS case (and not generally speaking), i am using the LESS ACCEPTED MEANING to apply to Trump. mostly because i have a feeling that it would piss him off. edit: i also think he is going to lose the GE and vanish into history. what could be worse for a man like that? He won't vanish. He'll ride his ground swell of popularity to a fat contract with the TV networks for his show (which was flagging, before) and he'll have a bunch of books written about how the election was stolen from him by 'bad people' and they will be best sellers, and then he'll launch a bunch of more Trump enterprises - Trump caviar, Trump customized cars, Trump yachts.
He was only in this for the bump in publicity and brand recognition. He'll be laughing all the way to the bank.
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 10, 2016 12:44:13 GMT -5
i just noticed something about the primaries i think Trump is likely to win. he needs 253 delegates within the next week to stay on track to win the nomination. if he loses Missouri AND Ohio (i think this is a likely outcome), he is going to have less than that. so, either i am guessing wrong about one of those states, or the PROBABLE result will become a brokered convention. I hope that is the outcome.
The delegates are only obligated to vote for their candidate on the first vote, as I understand it. All subsequent votes can be for anyone else.
I hope the GOP can come to an agreement amongst themselves for someone who will be a strong candidate against Hillary and will select him over Trump - although I predict if that happens, there will be a knock down drag out uprising from Trump's embittered supporters that will set the city on fire. Witness how nasty they are at his rallies (someone else got sucker punched at one last night). If they think their sausage fingered candidate got robbed of the nomination, there will be riots.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 13:02:10 GMT -5
the latter. and yes, you are right, in THIS case (and not generally speaking), i am using the LESS ACCEPTED MEANING to apply to Trump. mostly because i have a feeling that it would piss him off. edit: i also think he is going to lose the GE and vanish into history. what could be worse for a man like that? He won't vanish. He'll ride his ground swell of popularity to a fat contract with the TV networks for his show (which was flagging, before) and he'll have a bunch of books written about how the election was stolen from him by 'bad people' and they will be best sellers, and then he'll launch a bunch of more Trump enterprises - Trump caviar, Trump customized cars, Trump yachts.
He was only in this for the bump in publicity and brand recognition. He'll be laughing all the way to the bank.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 13:03:17 GMT -5
i just noticed something about the primaries i think Trump is likely to win. he needs 253 delegates within the next week to stay on track to win the nomination. if he loses Missouri AND Ohio (i think this is a likely outcome), he is going to have less than that. so, either i am guessing wrong about one of those states, or the PROBABLE result will become a brokered convention. I hope that is the outcome.
The delegates are only obligated to vote for their candidate on the first vote, as I understand it. All subsequent votes can be for anyone else.
I hope the GOP can come to an agreement amongst themselves for someone who will be a strong candidate against Hillary and will select him over Trump - although I predict if that happens, there will be a knock down drag out uprising from Trump's embittered supporters that will set the city on fire. Witness how nasty they are at his rallies (someone else got sucker punched at one last night). If they think their sausage fingered candidate got robbed of the nomination, there will be riots.
actually, i think it very much depends on how Trump does. if he gets 49% of the vote, it will be hard to deny him. if he gets 34%......not so much.
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Post by fishy999 on Mar 10, 2016 23:38:59 GMT -5
Lots of definitions of 'losers'. Trump fits one of them.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 11, 2016 1:06:58 GMT -5
Nice to see the 4 politicians act like mature adults tonight.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Mar 11, 2016 14:39:04 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 15:25:47 GMT -5
It makes sense. Unless you are happy with a Trump nomination, it makes no sense to vote for the guy who is a distant 4th in a winner take all state. I wonder how much attention the average person pays to that kind of stuff though. ETA: I also read this morning that Cruz's PAC pulled their ads in FL. link
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 11, 2016 20:43:16 GMT -5
his campaign was quoted on saying "Rubio can lose all on his own".
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 11, 2016 20:55:36 GMT -5
i was hoping this would happen, but i didn't think it would.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 11, 2016 21:52:11 GMT -5
Kasich is polling VERY well. he is +10% in (11) days. at this rate, he will be battling Cruz for 2nd sometime next week. congratulations to VB for picking a dark horse to saddle up with. very interesting choice.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 11, 2016 22:07:24 GMT -5
the polling in FL is totally whack. (4) of the last (11) polls have Trump in single digits. (5) of the last (11) have him leading by 19% or more.
but here is what is consistent:
Rubio is in second, Cruz is in 3rd, and Kasich is last.
there are literally ZERO polls which show any different than that. and that is likely how it is going to fall next week.
so, the next question becomes: with Cruz pulling the plug on Florida, and Kasich and Rubio working together in OH, and Carson endorsing Trump, does that change anything?
well, let's deal with the last question first: not much. other posters have pointed this out before: Carson's voters don't have that much in common with Trumps. i initially disagreed with this, but i agree with it, now. so, i don't think that endorsement helps Trump very much.
if Kasich voters in FL actually think about OH, it will certainly help Rubio. and i think there IS some overlap there in terms of demographics. so, the material effect of these two changes is maybe....+5 for Rubio, which puts him at around 30% on average, and within MOE at best, but not in the lead.
does Cruz's wild girations in the state help Rubio? possibly. but my observation is that Cruz takes and gives more to Trump than the other way around. in other words, when Cruz does well, it doesn't mean that Rubio or Kasich perform badly, it means that Trump does. so, i think, if anything, Cruz getting out of the race (by not pursuing it) helps TRUMP, not Rubio. so this is a negative, imo.
in other words, i don't think Rubio gains much, here. he is going to have to do it on his own, still.
this week has been very quiet for Rubio in terms of "bad vibes" from his campaign, so i think he is done hurting himself.
but i still don't give him much of a chance in FL.
i still have Trump at 6:1 to win FL. the margin certainly will NOT be 20%, but it could easily be 15%. there is a chance it will be less than 10%.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 22:48:50 GMT -5
Anyone read what happened in the Virgin Islands? Sounds like the caucus somehow didn't vote for any of the nominees, was run by a usurper Ron Paul supporter from Michigan, and will send their delegates to the the convention uncommitted. It's only 6 delegates, but still weird in a year where there may be a contested convention. In the year’s weirdest caucus, the winner was … no one
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 12, 2016 4:26:58 GMT -5
djAdvocate: Thought you should know: we were having some friends over for dinner and the topic of US politics came up. When it came my turn to talk, I more or less regurgitated the key points of your analysis over the past few weeks. I'm not sure how good of a job I did, but by the time I was done, everyone was staring at me as though I'd just delivered a prophetic revelation. At any rate, the good news is that my shameless regurgitation of your analysis made me look like an all-knowing professor of political science to our friends, hence thank you. The bad news is that the only things anyone knew about Mr. Trump before the conversation started boiled down to "he's a loud, obnoxious, opportunistic clown", but since much of the discussion centered on him, I was compelled to explain why it's not quite that simple. Our guests weren't exactly Trump supporters by the time the evening was over, but they had at least gained an appreciation for why he's faring so well in the current election.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 12, 2016 9:54:01 GMT -5
Trump takes Illinois Missouri Florida Jury is out on Ohio, but I think Kasich just had a speech denouncing Trump's rhetoric, so that should bode well for Trump in Ohio.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 12, 2016 12:41:43 GMT -5
Trump takes Illinois Missouri Florida Jury is out on Ohio, but I think Kasich just had a speech denouncing Trump's rhetoric, so that should bode well for Trump in Ohio. polling is too thin in Missouri for anyone to make that call. Kasich is very likely going to win Ohio.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 13, 2016 9:00:01 GMT -5
Kansas city Missouri was a hot bed of activism last night. I do not know if it will increase Trump's vote, but it sure will not help Cruz's totals.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2016 9:00:45 GMT -5
Kansas city Missouri was a hot bed of activism last night. I do not know if it will increase Trump's vote, but it sure will not help Cruz's totals. What was happening?
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