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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2016 21:12:01 GMT -5
No. Evil creates evil. Sometimes evil of one kind creates evil of another kind. fair enough. thanks. it seems to me that sometimes things are independent variables, as well. as in, some things CHOOSE to come into existence, but are not a necessary consequence of other things existing. edit: i think the Trump phenomena is not a predictable outcome of GOP "failure". i think it is far more complex than that. I think the "Trump Phenomena" is a result of POLITICIAN failure. People don't trust politicians are looking out for their interests anymore, so they are turning to an alternative... even one that's more of a known liar, because "at least he's not a politician".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 6, 2016 21:12:55 GMT -5
i agree that Trump is/represents those things, but i disagree that it was: a) earned, in the sense that i think of the term b) a necessary or predictable consequence of those things. furthermore, that list is fairly disparate, for reasons i can articulate if you wish. i have a question for you: how far do you think he can ride the "anti-PC" train? I think he'll win the Republican nomination. There's no way he wins the general election. If he was evening coming close, they'd take him out. It's a critical juncture. The money boys need somebody loyal at the helm to protect their interests while the system comes apart. 1) i already knew about point 1. we have discussed it extensively on the nomination thread. 2) define "take him out". 3) i agree with your third point. i disagree with how that is most likely to happen, and their ability to control it 100%.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 6, 2016 21:14:03 GMT -5
fair enough. thanks. it seems to me that sometimes things are independent variables, as well. as in, some things CHOOSE to come into existence, but are not a necessary consequence of other things existing. edit: i think the Trump phenomena is not a predictable outcome of GOP "failure". i think it is far more complex than that. I think the "Trump Phenomena" is a result of POLITICIAN failure. People don't trust politicians are looking out for their interests anymore, so they are turning to an alternative... even one that's more of a known liar, because "at least he's not a politician". agreed. he is a protest candidate. he is the line item equivalent of "none of the above". but what dooms him is not that. that is reasonable. it is the irrational jingoism he is stirring up. that dooms him. and makes him terrifying.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2016 21:23:36 GMT -5
I think the "Trump Phenomena" is a result of POLITICIAN failure. People don't trust politicians are looking out for their interests anymore, so they are turning to an alternative... even one that's more of a known liar, because "at least he's not a politician". agreed. he is a protest candidate. he is the line item equivalent of "none of the above". but what dooms him is not that. that is reasonable. it is the irrational jingoism he is stirring up. that dooms him. and makes him terrifying. Agreed. Which is why I will be kicking myself when I have to vote FOR him if he's pitted against Hillary. I don't wanna vote for him! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna!
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 6, 2016 21:38:16 GMT -5
agreed. he is a protest candidate. he is the line item equivalent of "none of the above". but what dooms him is not that. that is reasonable. it is the irrational jingoism he is stirring up. that dooms him. and makes him terrifying. Agreed. Which is why I will be kicking myself when I have to vote FOR him if he's pitted against Hillary. I don't wanna vote for him! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! yeah, well. if you hate her that much, go for it. i will NOT be voting for him in the primary for precisely that reason. it will be the first time i have EVER voted AGAINST a candidate in my voting career. EVER. hopefully it will be the last.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2016 21:40:28 GMT -5
Agreed. Which is why I will be kicking myself when I have to vote FOR him if he's pitted against Hillary. I don't wanna vote for him! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! I don't wanna! yeah, well. if you hate her that much, go for it. i will NOT be voting for him in the primary for precisely that reason. it will be the first time i have EVER voted AGAINST a candidate in my voting career. EVER. hopefully it will be the last.We have something in common there... LOL
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 6, 2016 22:21:49 GMT -5
I think he'll win the Republican nomination. There's no way he wins the general election. If he was evening coming close, they'd take him out. It's a critical juncture. The money boys need somebody loyal at the helm to protect their interests while the system comes apart. 1) i already knew about point 1. we have discussed it extensively on the nomination thread. 2) define "take him out". 3) i agree with your third point. i disagree with how that is most likely to happen, and their ability to control it 100%. "Take him out" meaning warning him to fall in line or else, and having him killed if he didn't comply. It would be a measure of absolute last resort, but they'd do it. It won't come to that. He won't get anywhere near the presidency. Unless Ms. Clinton strokes out or something.
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Post by dondub on Mar 6, 2016 23:33:00 GMT -5
What? You don't believe she will be indicted for the 2027 felonies she has committed?
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 6, 2016 23:49:28 GMT -5
1) i already knew about point 1. we have discussed it extensively on the nomination thread. 2) define "take him out". 3) i agree with your third point. i disagree with how that is most likely to happen, and their ability to control it 100%. "Take him out" meaning warning him to fall in line or else, and having him killed if he didn't comply. It would be a measure of absolute last resort, but they'd do it. It won't come to that. He won't get anywhere near the presidency. Unless Ms. Clinton strokes out or something. you continue to astonish me, Virgil.
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Post by happyhoix on Mar 7, 2016 12:24:26 GMT -5
1) i already knew about point 1. we have discussed it extensively on the nomination thread. 2) define "take him out". 3) i agree with your third point. i disagree with how that is most likely to happen, and their ability to control it 100%. "Take him out" meaning warning him to fall in line or else, and having him killed if he didn't comply. It would be a measure of absolute last resort, but they'd do it. It won't come to that. He won't get anywhere near the presidency. Unless Ms. Clinton strokes out or something. Seriously, Virgil. I think you must be watching too much House of Cards.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 14:54:11 GMT -5
he's not out of the woods, yet, but Rubio just got a very encouraging poll result for Florida from Monmouth.
he is now trailing by 8%, with (8) days to go (which is doable, trust me on this. 1.5% a day is a stretch, but 1% is doable, if accurate).
furthermore, it is his best poll result in Florida for the campaign.
i am not saying he will win Florida. far from it. but whereas i thought he had NO SHOT AT IT prior to today, i think he has a shot, now.
he was at 5% in September, when Trump was really rolling. he should be congratulated for getting back into this from the very edge of disaster.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 22:04:36 GMT -5
tomorrow should be pretty good for Trump.
in Michigan, his average poll lead is 15%. however, without the ARG poll, which shows Kasich +3%, he is up a lot more. if Trump wins, i am ignoring ARG from now on.
in MS, Trump leads by a wide margin.
in ID, new polling indicates that Trump will win that, as well. however, this is a closed primary, so Cruz might outperform considerably.
no polling in HI, but Rubio should do well there. this is a caucus state, which means that Trump can expect to perform poorly.
there is a lot of uncertainty in the polls. Trump's target is 59 delegates, and he should get that easily.
all of these states are proportional. Michigan and Idaho have a 50% trigger. nobody is going to hit it, meaning that it will be a split. the other two states have congressional delegations, which means that it will be done county by county (basically). there won't be any clean sweeps. everyone will get something, but the chances are that nobody other than Trump will meet their goals.
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 7, 2016 22:43:47 GMT -5
... in ID, new polling indicates that Trump will win that, as well. however, this is a closed primary, so Cruz might outperform considerably. ... Yeah but no intelligent Democrat in Idaho registers as a Democrat. There is never more than one Democrat for an office in the state primary, for president they caucus, and the only slight chance for a Democrat to win in Idaho is if the Republican is certifiable so Democrats vote for the most obnoxious Republican. I guess this year it would be a toss up, Cruz or Trump.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 7, 2016 22:49:06 GMT -5
... in ID, new polling indicates that Trump will win that, as well. however, this is a closed primary, so Cruz might outperform considerably. ... Yeah but no intelligent Democrat in Idaho registers as a Democrat. There is never more than one Democrat for an office in the state primary, for president they caucus, and the only slight chance for a Democrat to win in Idaho is if the Republican is certifiable so Democrats vote for the most obnoxious Republican. I guess this year it would be a toss up, Cruz or Trump. well, that is not entirely true, but i will grant that it is true for areas outside of Boise. Boise is a bright blue spot in a dark red state. but in case you were wondering, i was suggesting that Cruz might win.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 8, 2016 9:51:43 GMT -5
Yeah but no intelligent Democrat in Idaho registers as a Democrat. There is never more than one Democrat for an office in the state primary, for president they caucus, and the only slight chance for a Democrat to win in Idaho is if the Republican is certifiable so Democrats vote for the most obnoxious Republican. I guess this year it would be a toss up, Cruz or Trump. well, that is not entirely true, but i will grant that it is true for areas outside of Boise. Boise is a bright blue spot in a dark red state. but in case you were wondering, i was suggesting that Cruz might win. I would have thought Idaho would be Cruz country, with state's rights and all the federal landholdings there.
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 8, 2016 10:07:48 GMT -5
well, that is not entirely true, but i will grant that it is true for areas outside of Boise. Boise is a bright blue spot in a dark red state. but in case you were wondering, i was suggesting that Cruz might win. I would have thought Idaho would be Cruz country, with state's rights and all the federal landholdings there. Idaho is best ignored unless you really want to get into it. Southeast Idaho is a suburb of Utah. Northern Idaho is former anarchist, now radical nativity territory (with almost no population). And then there is Boise. A sign on the edge of Boise once read, "Welcome to Boise. Set your clocks back twenty years." (For perspective, I was born and raised in Boise and was a Poli Sci major at Boise State, interned at the Idaho legislature. )
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 8, 2016 10:16:16 GMT -5
I would have thought Idaho would be Cruz country, with state's rights and all the federal landholdings there. Idaho is best ignored unless you really want to get into it. Southeast Idaho is a suburb of Utah. Northern Idaho is former anarchist, now radical nativity territory (with almost no population). And then there is Boise. A sign on the edge of Boise once read, "Welcome to Boise. Set your clocks back twenty years." (For perspective, I was born and raised in Boise and was a Poli Sci major at Boise State, interned at the Idaho legislature. ) That pretty much describes the state of Mississippi today except it's 60 years.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 8, 2016 18:26:06 GMT -5
FINALLY, after nearly TWO WEEKS, we have two new national polls, and they are both TERRIBLE for Trump. but first, the new averages: Trump 36 +15 Cruz 21 +2 Rubio 18 +6 Kasich 12 now, some of you are asking, why is this news? well, here are the averages of the last TWO polls: Trump 32 Cruz 26 Rubio 19 Kasich 17.5 what this says to me is that Cruz is within striking distance of Trump nationally, which is extremely good news for him. furthermore, it shows Kasich "on the map". he was polling at 2% on January 9th. that is +15% in (2) months, and he is within a hair of bumping off Rubio. i would love to see Rubio drop out, actually, and Kasich stay in. but we will see. note: Trump has lost 1% since Christmas. Cruz is +3%, Rubio is +7%, and Kasich is +10%. Trump can stop bullshitting us about where the votes are going. "everyone else" got 25%, and he got NOTHING. NADA. NIL. the only way he gets more votes is by using his coctail sausage fingers to steal them. one final note: i think that Trump's comment about taking on Cruz head to head is utterly misguided. i think Cruz would make mincemeat of him. VB- i think these two polls make a good case for Kasich. if he wins Ohio, and Rubio loses Florida (both are probable), i think RUBIO should drop out and back Kasich.
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Post by tallguy on Mar 8, 2016 18:30:27 GMT -5
If all four staying in is the price of ensuring it not be Cruz, I'm good with that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 8, 2016 18:32:13 GMT -5
If all four staying in is the price of ensuring it not be Cruz, I'm good with that. that option only works for me if Trump also loses*, which is a distinct possibility. *loses = gets less than 50% of the delegates.
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Post by tallguy on Mar 8, 2016 18:38:05 GMT -5
I don't see Trump winning the general, and even if he does I don't think he will actually get a chance to destroy as much as his words so far would imply. Cruz, on the other hand, would truly be as bad as we predict. There is nothing unknown about him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 8, 2016 18:43:10 GMT -5
I don't see Trump winning the general, and even if he does I don't think he will actually get a chance to destroy as much as his words so far would imply. Cruz, on the other hand, would truly be as bad as we predict. There is nothing unknown about him. here is where my conservatism comes out: i know what i am getting into with Cruz. does that mean i would vote for him? not a chance*. *except in the primary, if it means Trump loses.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 20:23:49 GMT -5
If all four staying in is the price of ensuring it not be Cruz, I'm good with that. Me too. As bad as Trump would be, Cruz would be worse.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 8, 2016 21:46:43 GMT -5
Trump is far more likely to get the nomination than Cruz.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 8, 2016 22:02:10 GMT -5
Trump is doing very well in MS. he has bout 50% of the vote there.
MI is going pretty much by the numbers. Trump +12. no candidate gets 50%, and the vote will split 3 ways, with Trump getting the most delegates. Rubio gets zip.
the only minor surprise is that Cruz is doing better than expected. he was expected to get 20% in MI, and he is getting about 24%. he was only expected to get about 20% in MS, and he is closer to 35%. so, another good night for Cruz.
tonight it is Kasich that is performing "about as expected", and Rubio is getting slaughtered. again.
update: Cruz is doing even better still in MI. he might come in 2nd, which would be surprising for him.
2nd update: Cruz is now in 2nd in MI and leading in ID. this might end up being a good night for him.
3rd update: Cruz is going to win ID, and win it big, end up in a surprising 2nd in MI, and got 37% in MS. good night for him so far.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 1:30:22 GMT -5
Trump needed 59 tonight, and he got it. he is the only guy who hit his target.
Cruz ran well, but he is going to lose ground tonight. his target was 60+.
Rubio got his ass kicked. he is going to come in 4th, unless he absolutely kills it in Hawaii. he is 17 behind KASICH in delegates so far. he will say that he never expected to do well, and that is true. but right now, he has ZERO. i can't think he expected to do that "not well".
when the final results are in, again, Trump is going to win tonight, Cruz second.
edit: Rubio is not going to kill it in HI. he is a distant 3rd right now. he might even come in 4th.
dismal.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:28:56 GMT -5
well, Cruz got 55 delegates last night. he missed by less than 10. Trump got 69, which is precisely 10 more than he needed to stay on pace.
so, yeah, it was a good night for Trump, but it was also a good night for Cruz.
it was an absolute disaster for Rubio, who got goose-egged, and had persistent negative rumors about his campaign.
edit: i have to agree with the press about how Rubio has handled these defeats, as well. dismissing them as unimportant is not how you handle it. he should say "we are disappointed at how we did, but it was not unexpected". that is much better than "we never expected to win these things", and getting goose egged. Rubio spent a lot of money in Michigan and Idaho, including touring the latter with a major endorser, and he got smacked down. admitting it would be good. if he had managed 15% in any one of these contests, he would have picked up some delegates, and saved face. what actually happened does NOT bode well for him next week.
if you think about what Cruz is doing, it is actually strategically smart. even though he is late into FL, he never figured he had a chance. but i think it is pretty clear that Rubio is imploding now- and that Cruz is the only one that can keep this race interesting. his poll numbers are way up in FL, and i am betting he will place 2nd there. that, of course, is meaningless in the primary. but that is not how Cruz is thinking now, and that is very smart, imo. and further, it shows optimism in his campaign, which is huge.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 12:27:43 GMT -5
there are three TEENY primaries this week for the GOP. i was originally predicting that Rubio would sweep all of them.
but given his (Rubio's) recent performance, i would guess Trump will sweep all of them.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 9, 2016 17:33:28 GMT -5
Florida- Trump Ohio- probably Trump No brokered convention Where can I order a couple of cases of Trump water? There are a couple of people I know that would choke on it This is in real life, and no one was targeted on this board. I really want to start handing out a few bottles of it.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 9, 2016 19:49:49 GMT -5
Trump-flavoured water? Yeah, I'd probably choke on that.
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