djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 11, 2016 20:44:31 GMT -5
this is why i like to nail people down on what they mean by "real unemployment". if they mean UE6, we can look that up. it was worse under Reagan and Bush than it is under Obama right now. if they mean some stupid concoction of population growth, the Age Wave, and kids staying in college longer and saying that is "unemployment", they are picking pepper out of fly shit. We can't even rely on the U6 stat anymore. The BLS considers anyone employed more than 4 hours a week to be "employed" and off the U6 they go. I can't remember when they made that change, but it wasn't long ago. The only two figures of relevance are the LFPR (which is the worst it's been since 1970, when most households could still afford to be single income) and the inflation-adjusted median wage, which has been slowly declining for more than a decade. If you switch to estimates of real inflation for the poor rather than using the PCI, real wages (in terms of purchasing power) have declined drastically since the 2008 crash in particular. Let's just say I'm not surprised Mr. Sanders is getting a lot of support for promising to hand out free money and bennies. ETA: For somebody as passionate as you about the need for accuracy in polling and the evils of fudged data, you seem to be either totally disinterested in or totally permissive of the increasingly drastic ways in which governments are fudging data like employment statistics in order to perpetuate the illusion of financial recovery. I wish you'd treat the BLS and the UST the same way as you'd treat Rasmussen: not just blindly parroting what they say, but actually looking under the hood to determine if their conclusions aren't maybe just a little too good to be true. I must have started at least four or five threads documenting the new ways in which GDP or labour stats are being fudged over the past two years, and you're nowhere to be found in any of them. The threads die quick deaths, which is understandable since most of the board couldn't care less about federal statistics, but your absence in particular is extremely conspicuous. You're the "poll dancer" with the appetite for public statistics. Don't force me to put an anti-Bush, pro-Obama spin on my threads to get you in there. of course you CAN rely on UE6. you choose not to, and that is fine. it makes it impossible to compare where we are now with where we once were if you do that, however. edit: Virgil, i have actually LOOKED AT your many threads. they are such a flood of data, and so confusing, that i have rarely been able to make any sense of them. i am sure all of that stuff says something to YOU, or you would not post it. but please forgive the rest of us if we can make hide nor hare of it. i will say this for you: i found your deficit -vs- change in debt discussion interesting enough to raise questions. i am only willing to go down that road so many times, however. as i have stated above, it makes it very difficult to communicate if you don't share a common language, and i am here to DISCUSS things, not to debate the flaws in the presentation, as a general rule. but clearly we each have our peeves. yours is data presentation. mine is language.
|
|
Pants
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 19:26:44 GMT -5
Posts: 7,579
|
Post by Pants on Mar 12, 2016 11:04:12 GMT -5
So, question: I'm in IL, does my primary vote actually matter? I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for...
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 11:08:16 GMT -5
I think recent upsets and poll failures to accurately predict show all votes matter.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 12, 2016 12:45:39 GMT -5
So, question: I'm in IL, does my primary vote actually matter? I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for... your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE.
|
|
Pants
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 19:26:44 GMT -5
Posts: 7,579
|
Post by Pants on Mar 12, 2016 13:07:26 GMT -5
So, question: I'm in IL, does my primary vote actually matter? I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for... your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. By the polls, though. What are your thoughts on it mattering if I vote for either dem? I am so torn I cannot come to a decision and it would be great to know it's just not gonna matter because the polls say one or the other will win.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 38,212
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 12, 2016 13:10:35 GMT -5
So, question: I'm in IL, does my primary vote actually matter? I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for... your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. Except to a large degree it only matters based on the results of the GE. It might get you a nominee from one of the parties that you would prefer but that could mean only an entry in the history books as the person who lost to someone else.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Mar 12, 2016 13:12:51 GMT -5
So, question: I'm in IL, does my primary vote actually matter? I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for... your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. So true this year. Hillary may have it wrapped up with delegate numbers, but Illinois will decide whether Sanders should continue campaigning, and be an even bigger force at the convention, and actually may even have a say who the VP Nominee will be with Hillary. On the other side, if Republican, you too, can make an important call.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Mar 12, 2016 13:15:15 GMT -5
your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. By the polls, though. What are your thoughts on it mattering if I vote for either dem? I am so torn I cannot come to a decision and it would be great to know it's just not gonna matter because the polls say one or the other will win. If you believe in both candidates, I would say, vote for Sanders, based on pure political stands of Sanders. He is an honest person to his beliefs.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 13:17:59 GMT -5
your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. By the polls, though. What are your thoughts on it mattering if I vote for either dem? I am so torn I cannot come to a decision and it would be great to know it's just not gonna matter because the polls say one or the other will win. Michigan polls were way wrong. Votes counted.
|
|
Tennesseer
Member Emeritus
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 21:58:42 GMT -5
Posts: 64,454
|
Post by Tennesseer on Mar 12, 2016 13:25:21 GMT -5
By the polls, though. What are your thoughts on it mattering if I vote for either dem? I am so torn I cannot come to a decision and it would be great to know it's just not gonna matter because the polls say one or the other will win. If you believe in both candidates, I would say, vote for Sanders, based on pure political stands of Sanders. He is an honest person to his beliefs. Says the poster who knows Sanders doesn't have a chance.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 13:59:27 GMT -5
He has a slim chance. It's not likely, but it's not yet impossible. This week will tell.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 12, 2016 19:09:48 GMT -5
your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. So true this year. Hillary may have it wrapped up with delegate numbers, but Illinois will decide whether Sanders should continue campaigning, and be an even bigger force at the convention, and actually may even have a say who the VP Nominee will be with Hillary. On the other side, if Republican, you too, can make an important call. it is true every year. it is just a statement of fact. very few people vote the primaries compared to the GE.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 12, 2016 19:10:52 GMT -5
your vote matters about 20x more in the primary than the GE. By the polls, though. What are your thoughts on it mattering if I vote for either dem? I am so torn I cannot come to a decision and it would be great to know it's just not gonna matter because the polls say one or the other will win. i suggest you vote for the candidate you want to win in the GE. that goes for the primary AND the GE.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 12, 2016 19:11:45 GMT -5
By the polls, though. What are your thoughts on it mattering if I vote for either dem? I am so torn I cannot come to a decision and it would be great to know it's just not gonna matter because the polls say one or the other will win. Michigan polls were way wrong. Votes counted. Michigan polls failed to account property for turnout, which was off the hook.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 19:12:54 GMT -5
Michigan polls were way wrong. Votes counted. Michigan polls failed to account property for turnout, which was off the hook. So, people turned out and their votes counted... Ie yes, showing up to vote made a difference... Isn't that basically what she was asking?
|
|
Pants
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 19:26:44 GMT -5
Posts: 7,579
|
Post by Pants on Mar 12, 2016 20:03:38 GMT -5
Michigan polls failed to account property for turnout, which was off the hook. So, people turned out and their votes counted... Ie yes, showing up to vote made a difference... Isn't that basically what she was asking? Oh, no, I'm turning out regardless. There are judges etc. to vote for. I'm just having serious angst and cannot decide who to vote for for the presidential primary. I'm literally undecided. This is the first election in years where I don't have a candidate picked out before the primary. Having to choose is giving me heartburn.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 20:09:38 GMT -5
Yeah, it is a different sort of year. This will be son's first... He can't vote primary but will be old enough for the general.
|
|
Virgil Showlion
Distinguished Associate
Moderator
[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:19:33 GMT -5
Posts: 27,448
|
Post by Virgil Showlion on Mar 12, 2016 20:19:16 GMT -5
Michigan polls failed to account property for turnout, which was off the hook. So, people turned out and their votes counted... Ie yes, showing up to vote made a difference... Isn't that basically what she was asking? If we want to be brutally accurate: each vote in the primary is worth an infinitesimally greater amount than the infinitesimally tiny amount each vote matters in the general election. ...or at least that would be the case if the Republicans had any hope of winning the general election, which they don't, hence we more appropriately conclude that each vote in the primary is worth an infinitesimally smaller amount than the infinitesimally tiny amount each vote matters in the general election. The purpose of voting is to give people who have no meaningful measure of input on the governance of their nation the impression that they have a meaningful measure of input on the governance of their nation. (This is not unlike lottery tickets giving people who have no meaningful chances of winning a lottery jackpot the impression that they have meaningful changes of winning a lottery jackpot.) Having said this, the psychological benefits of voting should not be casually dismissed. Casting a vote imparts to the voter the satisfying belief that s/he has fulfilled his/her civic duty, and, more importantly, grants him/her moral license to denounce anyone not having undertaken the same demonstrably pointless ritual. The process is roughly analogous to an old grocer who deems any man that refuses to buy a clove of garlic to be a vampire (and thus worthy of scorn), but differs in the sense that while the grocer's thesis cannot be definitively disproved, the belief that casting a vote has any meaningful effect on the outcome of a US federal election can be. The unwritten rules of voting can easily be extended to other situations as well. For example, we consider a company that offers promotions based on the outcome of arm wrestling matches. While 98-pound, 93-year-old junior associate Ethel has ostensibly no chance of being promoted whether she chooses to compete in the yearly contests or not, we observe that she forfeits the right to criticize others' promotions (and company policy in general) if she "doesn't do anything to fix" her situation by availing herself of the channel available to her, utterly ineffectual though it may be.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Mar 12, 2016 20:28:37 GMT -5
If you believe in both candidates, I would say, vote for Sanders, based on pure political stands of Sanders. He is an honest person to his beliefs. Says the poster who knows Sanders doesn't have a chance. Pants, I believe is a Democrat. I am telling the poster, if you are not sure to vote for, go with the one where there is no doubt where they stand on the issues, and is as honest a politician as we probably have. Sanders does seem to be catching fire. If he does a good job on the Tuesday primaries, we could see a swelling of support for him in the following states coming due. Hillary could be in trouble. Sanders would probably beat Trump in November. I do not think Clinton would. Yes, Sander's chances are slim, but until they are less than slim, a person's vote for him is not wasted.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 21:08:29 GMT -5
So, people turned out and their votes counted... Ie yes, showing up to vote made a difference... Isn't that basically what she was asking? If we want to be brutally accurate: each vote in the primary is worth an infinitesimally greater amount than the infinitesimally tiny amount each vote matters in the general election. ...or at least that would be the case if the Republicans had any hope of winning the general election, which they don't, hence we more appropriately conclude that each vote in the primary is worth an infinitesimally smaller amount than the infinitesimally tiny amount each vote matters in the general election. The purpose of voting is to give people who have no meaningful measure of input on the governance of their nation the impression that they have a meaningful measure of input on the governance of their nation. (This is not unlike lottery tickets giving people who have no meaningful chances of winning a lottery jackpot the impression that they have meaningful changes of winning a lottery jackpot.) Having said this, the psychological benefits of voting should not be casually dismissed. Casting a vote imparts to the voter the satisfying belief that s/he has fulfilled his/her civic duty, and, more importantly, grants him/her moral license to denounce anyone not having undertaken the same demonstrably pointless ritual. The process is roughly analogous to an old grocer who deems any man that refuses to buy a clove of garlic to be a vampire (and thus worthy of scorn), but differs in the sense that while the grocer's thesis cannot be definitively disproved, the belief that casting a vote has any meaningful effect on the outcome of a US federal election can be. The unwritten rules of voting can easily be extended to other situations as well. For example, we consider a company that offers promotions based on the outcome of arm wrestling matches. While 98-pound, 93-year-old junior associate Ethel has ostensibly no chance of being promoted whether she chooses to compete in the yearly contests or not, we observe that she forfeits the right to criticize others' promotions (and company policy in general) if she "doesn't do anything to fix" her situation by availing herself of the channel available to her, utterly ineffectual though it may be. It is because government is so big. People who want something want to force it onto all 300,000,000 of us Americans. Look at education, people in Indiana want to dictate what kids in Arkansas study. Look at health care, people iin California want to say what people in Florida have to receive in the way of birth control. People in whatever state want to tell some woman 2000 miles away she cannot have an abortion, or that the government must pay for it if she is poor. So you end up with what we have, a big mess where power decides for us.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 38,212
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 12, 2016 22:06:40 GMT -5
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 12, 2016 22:28:26 GMT -5
So, people turned out and their votes counted... Ie yes, showing up to vote made a difference... Isn't that basically what she was asking? If we want to be brutally accurate: each vote in the primary is worth an infinitesimally greater amount than the infinitesimally tiny amount each vote matters in the general election. ...or at least that would be the case if the Republicans had any hope of winning the general election, which they don't, hence we more appropriately conclude that each vote in the primary is worth an infinitesimally smaller amount than the infinitesimally tiny amount each vote matters in the general election. The purpose of voting is to give people who have no meaningful measure of input on the governance of their nation the impression that they have a meaningful measure of input on the governance of their nation. (This is not unlike lottery tickets giving people who have no meaningful chances of winning a lottery jackpot the impression that they have meaningful changes of winning a lottery jackpot.) Having said this, the psychological benefits of voting should not be casually dismissed. Casting a vote imparts to the voter the satisfying belief that s/he has fulfilled his/her civic duty, and, more importantly, grants him/her moral license to denounce anyone not having undertaken the same demonstrably pointless ritual. The process is roughly analogous to an old grocer who deems any man that refuses to buy a clove of garlic to be a vampire (and thus worthy of scorn), but differs in the sense that while the grocer's thesis cannot be definitively disproved, the belief that casting a vote has any meaningful effect on the outcome of a US federal election can be. The unwritten rules of voting can easily be extended to other situations as well. For example, we consider a company that offers promotions based on the outcome of arm wrestling matches. While 98-pound, 93-year-old junior associate Ethel has ostensibly no chance of being promoted whether she chooses to compete in the yearly contests or not, we observe that she forfeits the right to criticize others' promotions (and company policy in general) if she "doesn't do anything to fix" her situation by availing herself of the channel available to her, utterly ineffectual though it may be. it is infinitesimally greater in the sense that an atom of Uranium is infinitesimally greater than an atom of Helium.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 38,212
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 12, 2016 22:37:55 GMT -5
...it is infinitesimally greater in the sense that an atom of Uranium is infinitesimally greater than an atom of Helium. I think helium is greater than uranium because helium causes you to talk funny while uranium makes your hair fall out. YMMV
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 23:51:19 GMT -5
...it is infinitesimally greater in the sense that an atom of Uranium is infinitesimally greater than an atom of Helium. I think helium is greater than uranium because helium causes you to talk funny while uranium makes your hair fall out. YMMV Sulfur hexafluoride is even better...
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 13, 2016 0:08:55 GMT -5
I think helium is greater than uranium because helium causes you to talk funny while uranium makes your hair fall out. YMMV Sulfur hexafluoride is even better... that is not very elementary thinking.
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,560
|
Post by tallguy on Mar 13, 2016 0:30:32 GMT -5
For whatever reason, this whole "value of a vote" discussion brings to mind an Annie Savoy quote from Bull Durham:
Do any of us really get to choose? And yeah, you get three votes together you can't do dick. You get 300 million of them....
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 13, 2016 0:49:11 GMT -5
For whatever reason, this whole "value of a vote" discussion brings to mind an Annie Savoy quote from Bull Durham:
Do any of us really get to choose? And yeah, you get three votes together you can't do dick. You get 300 million of them.... hopefully, there are not 300M neo-fascists in the US.
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,560
|
Post by tallguy on Mar 13, 2016 1:04:35 GMT -5
We barely have 300 million people, much less voters. And despite what the GOP debates look like, I doubt the neo-fascist segment is anywhere near that.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,453
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 13, 2016 1:22:39 GMT -5
We barely have 300 million people, much less voters. And despite what the GOP debates look like, I doubt the neo-fascist segment is anywhere near that. 30M?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: Oct 2, 2024 5:28:57 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2016 2:20:03 GMT -5
Sulfur hexafluoride is even better... that is not very elementary thinking. Correct! It's the next step above "elementary"!
|
|