AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 7, 2015 11:10:45 GMT -5
Are we really going to have this conversation? Let's say for the sake of argument that Barrack Hussein Obama aka President Obama aka Barrack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya. Makes no difference whatsoever. His mother was an American citizen, so he's an American citizen. Period.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 7, 2015 11:23:50 GMT -5
The answer to some questions is obvious just for having had to ask it: www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/12/01/trump-inevitable/Jx89oqmUmHU3LSQfpxHFfO/story.htmlIs Donald Trump Inevitable? When the Boston Globe asks it, The Boston Globe answers it. Currently, yes. He's 20 points ahead of his nearest rival. Let me ask a serious question-- I consider djAdvocate to have some good working knowledge of polling and the history of polls, but anyone can chime in: Has there ever been a candidate this far ahead at this same stage of the race that has lost? Bonus questions: If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"? If Donald Trump were at 3%, had never led the race, had mostly been polling in the single digits the entire time-- would he be on Fox News this morning like Jeb Bush was analyzing Obama's speech last night? Is Donald Trump destroying the establishment, or is he the beneficiary of the long-time-coming implosion of the GOP elite which has been clinging to power since George W. Bush's squeaker against Al Gore in 2000? The whole thing is simultaneously surreal, and yet very, very real.
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 7, 2015 11:39:11 GMT -5
"If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"?" Yes. And you and shooby would be leading the charge
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 12:23:52 GMT -5
Ummm...what? Born here? Where is "here"? Cruz was born in Canada.
Take him back. Please! You have to admit with him in charge in Canada, the Muslim refugee influx would be halted. i believe he renounced his citizenship.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 12:24:27 GMT -5
Are we really going to have this conversation? Let's say for the sake of argument that Barrack Hussein Obama aka President Obama aka Barrack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya. Makes no difference whatsoever. His mother was an American citizen, so he's an American citizen. Period. i agree with you. Trump doesn't.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 12:31:24 GMT -5
The answer to some questions is obvious just for having had to ask it: www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/12/01/trump-inevitable/Jx89oqmUmHU3LSQfpxHFfO/story.htmlIs Donald Trump Inevitable? When the Boston Globe asks it, The Boston Globe answers it. Currently, yes. He's 20 points ahead of his nearest rival. Let me ask a serious question-- I consider djAdvocate to have some good working knowledge of polling and the history of polls, but anyone can chime in: Has there ever been a candidate this far ahead at this same stage of the race that has lost? Santorum was +15% in a February 10th poll in 2012. Huckabee was +12% in a December 9th poll in 2007.
so yeah, this is unprecedented, but not by a wide margin.
Bonus questions: If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"? no. but it is quite different when establishment candidates lead by that much, Paul. surely you understand that.If Donald Trump were at 3%, had never led the race, had mostly been polling in the single digits the entire time-- would he be on Fox News this morning like Jeb Bush was analyzing Obama's speech last night? i think that is cray cray, unless he is angling for a job on FOX.Is Donald Trump destroying the establishment, or is he the beneficiary of the long-time-coming implosion of the GOP elite which has been clinging to power since George W. Bush's squeaker against Al Gore in 2000? The whole thing is simultaneously surreal, and yet very, very real. it is mostly surreal. i will wait a few weeks to say how real it is. but it is real enough for now to get my attention.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 12:32:11 GMT -5
"If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"?" Yes. And you and shooby would be leading the charge LOL!
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 7, 2015 13:31:33 GMT -5
Take him back. Please! You have to admit with him in charge in Canada, the Muslim refugee influx would be halted. i believe he renounced his citizenship. If he is a US Citizen, then by definition he did. The United States does not recognize dual citizenship, and everyone that takes the oath of citizenship does so without reservation, or purpose of evasion.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 13:32:43 GMT -5
i believe he renounced his citizenship. If he is a US Citizen, then by definition he did. The United States does not recognize dual citizenship, and everyone that takes the oath of citizenship does so without reservation, or purpose of evasion. he didn't take the oath.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 7, 2015 13:35:05 GMT -5
The answer to some questions is obvious just for having had to ask it: www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/12/01/trump-inevitable/Jx89oqmUmHU3LSQfpxHFfO/story.htmlIs Donald Trump Inevitable? When the Boston Globe asks it, The Boston Globe answers it. Currently, yes. He's 20 points ahead of his nearest rival. Let me ask a serious question-- I consider djAdvocate to have some good working knowledge of polling and the history of polls, but anyone can chime in: Has there ever been a candidate this far ahead at this same stage of the race that has lost? Santorum was +15% in a February 10th poll in 2012. Huckabee was +12% in a December 9th poll in 2007.
so yeah, this is unprecedented, but not by a wide margin.
- I would call his lead a wide margin. Trump is not at 12% or 15%. Trump has a 20% LEAD.
Bonus questions: If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"? no. but it is quite different when establishment candidates lead by that much, Paul. surely you understand that.If Donald Trump were at 3%, had never led the race, had mostly been polling in the single digits the entire time-- would he be on Fox News this morning like Jeb Bush was analyzing Obama's speech last night? i think that is cray cray, unless he is angling for a job on FOX.Is Donald Trump destroying the establishment, or is he the beneficiary of the long-time-coming implosion of the GOP elite which has been clinging to power since George W. Bush's squeaker against Al Gore in 2000? The whole thing is simultaneously surreal, and yet very, very real. it is mostly surreal. i will wait a few weeks to say how real it is. but it is real enough for now to get my attention. Agreed. Sort of. I'm not seeing how Trump is defeated.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 7, 2015 13:35:40 GMT -5
If he is a US Citizen, then by definition he did. The United States does not recognize dual citizenship, and everyone that takes the oath of citizenship does so without reservation, or purpose of evasion. he didn't take the oath. Because he is a citizen- natural born.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 13:36:38 GMT -5
it is mostly surreal. i will wait a few weeks to say how real it is. but it is real enough for now to get my attention. Agreed. Sort of. I'm not seeing how Trump is defeated. i said the same thing in an earlier post. however, i have also said that things CAN change quickly. so, for now, i sit and wait. i will have much firmer convictions on or about January 4th.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 13:37:41 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 7, 2015 13:43:14 GMT -5
I was not aware he held dual citizenship.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 7, 2015 14:04:41 GMT -5
Is Donald Trump Inevitable? Currently, yes. I don't think you're quite grasping the concept of "inevitable". If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"? No, but Donald Trump isn't Jeb! Jeb! has fought in tougher scraps than this and pulled through. He's the one who can and will lead America forward on the right track. The man's man. The cat's meow. The mother's milk.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 14:19:06 GMT -5
Is Donald Trump Inevitable? Currently, yes. I don't think you're quite grasping the concept of "inevitable". If Jeb Bush were leading by 20 points right now, would there be talk of his inevitable "implosion" or "collapse"? No, but Donald Trump isn't Jeb! Jeb! has fought in tougher scraps than this and pulled through. He's the one who can and will lead America forward on the right track. The man's man. The cat's meow. The mother's milk. when has Jeb been trailing by 25% less than 2 months from a primary?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 7, 2015 15:06:17 GMT -5
I don't think you're quite grasping the concept of "inevitable". No, but Donald Trump isn't Jeb! Jeb! has fought in tougher scraps than this and pulled through. He's the one who can and will lead America forward on the right track. The man's man. The cat's meow. The mother's milk. when has Jeb been trailing by 25% less than 2 months from a primary? I have no clue. I'm guessing 'never'. But that will make his victory here all the sweeter. He's the blue carpet, my good man. Like David Brooks says. The carpet Republicans pick after they realize the bright pink one just doesn't fit. He'll win some of the early primaries. Pick up some momentum. Media attention will turn to him. He'll jump into the double digits in the polls, and the establishment will keep the heat up and the money flowing. A few more primary wins. Now faith in Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz is fading a bit. They can't carry Florida. They can't carry Massachusetts and Connecticut. What were we thinking? Jeb! is the sensible, trustworthy alternative. Now Jeb! is polling in the high teens, neck and neck with Trump. Finally, the time is right for the establishment to drop their anti-Trump bomb. The scandal they've been saving up to unload at this critical moment. 3... 2... 1... release! A video of Donald Trump punching a woman in an elevator in 1998. No time to explain it. No time for the shock to wear off. Trump's poll numbers drop like a stone. One man steps in to fill the ensuing vacuum. A bold man. A family man. Jeb!, the man who proves that Republicans aren't all lunatic right-wing women haters like Trump and Cruz. He understands that Americans needed a little bit of rebellion, and he forgives you. It's time to come home, America. There's a steaming hot bowl of moderate, familiar Republican soup waiting for you, and uncle Jeb! has some brownies in the oven. After that, it's a straight shot to the nomination. The man who was polling at 5% just months earlier! Who would've thunk!
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 7, 2015 15:50:20 GMT -5
when has Jeb been trailing by 25% less than 2 months from a primary? I have no clue. I'm guessing 'never'. But that will make his victory here all the sweeter. He's the blue carpet, my good man. Like David Brooks says. The carpet Republicans pick after they realize the bright pink one just doesn't fit. He'll win some of the early primaries. Pick up some momentum. Media attention will turn to him. He'll jump into the double digits in the polls, and the establishment will keep the heat up and the money flowing. A few more primary wins. Now faith in Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz is fading a bit. They can't carry Florida. They can't carry Massachusetts and Connecticut. What were we thinking? Jeb! is the sensible, trustworthy alternative. Now Jeb! is polling in the high teens, neck and neck with Trump. Finally, the time is right for the establishment to drop their anti-Trump bomb. The scandal they've been saving up to unload at this critical moment. 3... 2... 1... release! A video of Donald Trump punching a woman in an elevator in 1998. No time to explain it. No time for the shock to wear off. Trump's poll numbers drop like a stone. One man steps in to fill the ensuing vacuum. A bold man. A family man. Jeb!, the man who proves that Republicans aren't all lunatic right-wing women haters like Trump and Cruz. He understands that Americans needed a little bit of rebellion, and he forgives you. It's time to come home, America. There's a steaming hot bowl of moderate, familiar Republican soup waiting for you, and uncle Jeb! has some brownies in the oven. After that, it's a straight shot to the nomination. The man who was polling at 5% just months earlier! Who would've thunk! you're funny. but i go by the numbers. the numbers are telling me he has no chance. edit: maybe i shouldn't have been so flippant. i think that if Trump falls, which is the only way that Bush wins, imo- then it won't be Bush that gets his votes. that is Bush's real problem- is that the field has more members that are "like" him than that are "not like" him, and those that are "like" him are LOSING.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 8, 2015 0:37:13 GMT -5
The answer to some questions is obvious just for having had to ask it: www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/12/01/trump-inevitable/Jx89oqmUmHU3LSQfpxHFfO/story.htmlIs Donald Trump Inevitable? When the Boston Globe asks it, The Boston Globe answers it. Currently, yes. He's 20 points ahead of his nearest rival. Let me ask a serious question-- I consider djAdvocate to have some good working knowledge of polling and the history of polls, but anyone can chime in: Has there ever been a candidate this far ahead at this same stage of the race that has lost? Paul, i totally blew this question earlier on today, because i didn't have the data in front of me. you were asking for a recent epic fail, and i was ONLY looking on the GOP side, but i forgot this one (from Nate Silver): And remember the epic 2008 Democratic primary? It held the previous record for early attention from voters (75 percent among self-identified Democrats and independents who leaned Democratic). Yet in the same poll, Hillary Clinton was crushing Barack Obama by 27 percentage points. Obama, of course, went on to win the nomination. so yeah, Hillary blew a 27% lead in 2008, and lost the nomination- BARELY. so even if Trump blows his 14% lead, he will not really set a new standard.
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Post by happyhoix on Dec 8, 2015 8:42:27 GMT -5
No, because Bush is a politician and careful with his words. Barring photos of him having sex with farm animals surfacing unexpectedly, an implosion would be unlikely.
Trump, on the other hand, makes outrageous statements on purpose, all the time, in order to garner publicity and to appeal to his radical base. It's not hard to imagine him making some statement that is just so outrageous it produces more negative press than positive.
In fact he might have finally done it with his anti-Muslim statements about barring Muslims from entering the country, including Muslim citizens who are attempting to return home. Substitute 'Jew' for 'Muslim' in his statement and suddenly those of us who studied history are hearing frightening echoes of the Nazi anti-Jewish propaganda in the 20's. Worse, Trump is doing just what Isis wants us to do - turn this into a religious war.
Every other Republican candidate has come out against Trumps' statements. Trumps' hard core voters are sticking with him, but there are more 'I'd vote democratic rather than vote for him' people now, guaranteeing that, even if Trump won the nomination, he could not win the general election.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 8, 2015 9:25:13 GMT -5
I'm going to take a leap and get back into the prediction business. The reason is that I see evidence for the dynamic that fueled my last (wrong) prediction because my assumptions just didn't pan out-- namely, a whole bunch of people (8 million give or take) just didn't show up for Mitt Romney.
My initial guess: Trump supporters were soft, they'd never follow through-- they're giving those answers to pollsters because they know it's driving the establishment and media nuts. It would be fun to watch for a little while because Trump, backed up by the pollsters, was making all the right people squirm.
My new guess: The Obama regime's orchestrated invasion over the southern border, terror on American soil, and the constant string of insults and condescension from the establishment has had a big chunk of America simmering for years now. Trump has tapped into their rage, and I now believe Trump has much MORE support than is showing in the polls. I think there are many, many- not very outspoken, not typically very political, but nonetheless registered to vote, and champing at the bit Trump supporters. My wife is one. She won't talk politics with anyone. She goes and pulls the "R" pretty much no matter what-- even when I stayed home. She isn't particularly vocal about it, she doesn't let her political passions show, but she is waiting to vote for Trump. She wants the border secure, illegal invaders deported, and islamists DEAD; and she wants it all yesterday, fuck the tax code and everything else. I don't think she's alone. I think there's a massive wave of voters- the nearly 8 million that have been staying home in larger and larger numbers since Bush 41, Bush 43, McCain, and Romney. I could always be wrong, but I thnk they're back. And they're back for Trump. Cruz would win this thing hands-down in a normal cycle, but Trump has woken up the giant and they're not going back to sleep. This thing is all over.
Am I wrong? If these voters don't materialize in the primaries I am. If I'm right- Trump will be the next President of the United States. There are simply too many disaffected voters for the numbers to work any other way. If I'm correct, and Trump has finally woken up even 5% of the people who have been staying home, or dropped off the voter rolls-- there's no way to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 8, 2015 9:48:09 GMT -5
I'm going to take a leap and get back into the prediction business. The reason is that I see evidence for the dynamic that fueled my last (wrong) prediction because my assumptions just didn't pan out-- namely, a whole bunch of people (8 million give or take) just didn't show up for Mitt Romney. My initial guess: Trump supporters were soft, they'd never follow through-- they're giving those answers to pollsters because they know it's driving the establishment and media nuts. It would be fun to watch for a little while because Trump, backed up by the pollsters, was making all the right people squirm. My new guess: The Obama regime's orchestrated invasion over the southern border, terror on American soil, and the constant string of insults and condescension from the establishment has had a big chunk of America simmering for years now. Trump has tapped into their rage, and I now believe Trump has much MORE support than is showing in the polls. I think there are many, many- not very outspoken, not typically very political, but nonetheless registered to vote, and champing at the bit Trump supporters. My wife is one. She won't talk politics with anyone. She goes and pulls the "R" pretty much no matter what-- even when I stayed home. She isn't particularly vocal about it, she doesn't let her political passions show, but she is waiting to vote for Trump. She wants the border secure, illegal invaders deported, and islamists DEAD; and she wants it all yesterday, fuck the tax code and everything else. I don't think she's alone. I think there's a massive wave of voters- the nearly 8 million that have been staying home in larger and larger numbers since Bush 41, Bush 43, McCain, and Romney. I could always be wrong, but I thnk they're back. And they're back for Trump. Cruz would win this thing hands-down in a normal cycle, but Trump has woken up the giant and they're not going back to sleep. This thing is all over. Am I wrong? If these voters don't materialize in the primaries I am. If I'm right- Trump will be the next President of the United States. There are simply too many disaffected voters for the numbers to work any other way. If I'm correct, and Trump has finally woken up even 5% of the people who have been staying home, or dropped off the voter rolls-- there's no way to put the toothpaste back in the tube. I think you are two steps ahead of yourself. Primaries need to be won. The nomination secured. And then there will be an election for POTUS. Will that election be a two person contest? If not, how will a three or even four serious candidate race play out? If it is Trump and a Democrat has the only two viable choices, I can see where those 8 million stay at home types would show up, but Trump isn't guaranteed them plus all those "RINO" votes. It certainly is shaping up to be an interesting election.
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Post by Tennesseer on Dec 8, 2015 9:52:17 GMT -5
'No, Really: President Trump- Get Used To It'
So there is a record of the title of this thread.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 8, 2015 9:54:17 GMT -5
I think you overestimate how ticked off your "big chunk of America" is. ...or more appropriately, 'will be'.
A lot of what's fueling this rage is Pres. Obama's weekly kicking dirt in the face of Republicans, trying to secure some kind of a legacy. Mr. Trump isn't always going to have that wellspring of reactionism behind him.
If ISIS simmers down over the holidays, the US economy doesn't crater, and Pres. Obama can keep himself from inviting in Syrians, shutting down coal plants, offering amnesty to illegals, proposing free widgets for everybody, etc. every second week for the next three months, a "big chunk of America" is going to turn back to the moderates again. Mr. Trump is a liability.
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 8, 2015 10:04:36 GMT -5
... If ISIS simmers down over the holidays, ... I think a good question is, "Who would ISIS want to see as POTUS?" I think they would prefer Trump's Let the War Begin.
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Post by Tennesseer on Dec 8, 2015 10:14:17 GMT -5
Trump is the bestest recruitment tool for ISIS, ever!
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Post by tallguy on Dec 8, 2015 10:18:10 GMT -5
Well, he may still trail the Bush cronies at this point, but he is moving up with a bullet!
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 8, 2015 11:27:31 GMT -5
... If ISIS simmers down over the holidays, ... I think a good question is, "Who would ISIS want to see as POTUS?" I think they would prefer Trump's Let the War Begin. His proposed moratorium on all Muslim immigrants seems like precisely what ISIS would want. It makes it very clear that America is at war with Islam. I happen to believe America and Islam are at war regardless of whether it's official, but as we just finished discussing, the majority of people who call themselves Muslims are neither Muslims nor at war with the west. They believe they are Muslims, however, and I doubt they'll take too well to being singled out as enemies and undesirables. Will this be what sinks Mr. Trump? I doubt it. Jeb! is going to win the Republican nomination either way, hence it doesn't much matter.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 8, 2015 12:24:28 GMT -5
I think a good question is, "Who would ISIS want to see as POTUS?" I think they would prefer Trump's Let the War Begin. His proposed moratorium on all Muslim immigrants seems like precisely what ISIS would want. It makes it very clear that America is at war with Islam. I happen to believe America and Islam are at war regardless of whether it's official, but as we just finished discussing, the majority of people who call themselves Muslims are neither Muslims nor at war with the west. They believe they are Muslims, however, and I doubt they'll take too well to being singled out as enemies and undesirables. Will this be what sinks Mr. Trump? I doubt it. Jeb! is going to win the Republican nomination either way, hence it doesn't much matter. i happen to think that it is a terrible idea to be at war with Islam. what do you think?
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 8, 2015 12:26:43 GMT -5
No, because Bush is a politician and careful with his words. Barring photos of him having sex with farm animals surfacing unexpectedly, an implosion would be unlikely. Trump, on the other hand, makes outrageous statements on purpose, all the time, in order to garner publicity and to appeal to his radical base. It's not hard to imagine him making some statement that is just so outrageous it produces more negative press than positive. In fact he might have finally done it with his anti-Muslim statements about barring Muslims from entering the country, including Muslim citizens who are attempting to return home. Substitute 'Jew' for 'Muslim' in his statement and suddenly those of us who studied history are hearing frightening echoes of the Nazi anti-Jewish propaganda in the 20's. Worse, Trump is doing just what Isis wants us to do - turn this into a religious war. Every other Republican candidate has come out against Trumps' statements. Trumps' hard core voters are sticking with him, but there are more 'I'd vote democratic rather than vote for him' people now, guaranteeing that, even if Trump won the nomination, he could not win the general election. i don't think Nazi Germany is the right comparison. i think that what Trump is doing is more reminiscent of internment camps.
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