billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 29, 2015 0:17:37 GMT -5
So...I dug into the Reuters poll that shows a 12 point drop in support for Trump. Notice anything? 1299 respondents: Trump 40%- 11/19 981 respondents: Trump 38.5%- 11/20 636 respondents: Trump 42.4%- 11/21 464 respondents: Trump 42.9%- 11/22 441 respondents: Trump 42.6%- 11/23 381 respondents: Trump 38%- 11/24 362 respondents: Trump 37%- 11/25 358 respondents: Trump 31%- 11/26 346 respondents: Trump 31%- 11/27 I'll just leave this here for folks to chew on. How about a link to show us where you dug
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 29, 2015 0:30:34 GMT -5
So...I dug into the Reuters poll that shows a 12 point drop in support for Trump. Notice anything? That the numbers fluctuate absurdly over a period of 8 days? The man still can't beat Jeb! He's the Republican's Republican. ETA: If you're referring to the massive drop in sample sizes, would you pay for a poll accurate to within 1-2% when the guy's numbers are jumping up and down like a Jack Russel terrier?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 11:13:30 GMT -5
So...I dug into the Reuters poll that shows a 12 point drop in support for Trump. Notice anything? 1299 respondents: Trump 40%- 11/19 981 respondents: Trump 38.5%- 11/20 636 respondents: Trump 42.4%- 11/21 464 respondents: Trump 42.9%- 11/22 441 respondents: Trump 42.6%- 11/23 381 respondents: Trump 38%- 11/24 362 respondents: Trump 37%- 11/25 358 respondents: Trump 31%- 11/26 346 respondents: Trump 31%- 11/27 I'll just leave this here for folks to chew on. How about a link to show us where you dug sample size only impacts the confidence level. a sample size of 460 has about a 4.5% margin of error. a sample size of 340 has a MOE of 5.5%. so, yeah- the 31% number has a range of 25.5-36.5%, and the 42.9% number has a range of 38.4-47.3%. so, THEORETICALLY, it is POSSIBLE that Trump has only fallen 2% (the odds are about 400:1). if you are the kind that bets long odds.... edit: it is nice to see you digging. well done.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 11:17:09 GMT -5
So...I dug into the Reuters poll that shows a 12 point drop in support for Trump. Notice anything? That the numbers fluctuate absurdly over a period of 8 days? The man still can't beat Jeb! He's the Republican's Republican. ETA: If you're referring to the massive drop in sample sizes, would you pay for a poll accurate to within 1-2% when the guy's numbers are jumping up and down like a Jack Russel terrier? no, it is not that unusual. if it were to come out, tomorrow, that Trump murdered and ate children in his spare time, his polling would probably drop twice that amount in 8 days. seriously- not unusual at all. especially during "silly season".
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 29, 2015 12:27:06 GMT -5
That the numbers fluctuate absurdly over a period of 8 days? The man still can't beat Jeb! He's the Republican's Republican. ETA: If you're referring to the massive drop in sample sizes, would you pay for a poll accurate to within 1-2% when the guy's numbers are jumping up and down like a Jack Russel terrier? no, it is not that unusual. if it were to come out, tomorrow, that Trump murdered and ate children in his spare time, his polling would probably drop twice that amount in 8 days. seriously- not unusual at all. especially during "silly season". If he murdered and ate children, yeah. What has America learned about him in the past 8 days? That his claim about seeing thousands celebrating 9/11 in NJ is almost certainly false? The future of your republic pivots on the answer to that question? Incidentally, I called the fluctuations absurd, not unusual.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 12:37:13 GMT -5
no, it is not that unusual. if it were to come out, tomorrow, that Trump murdered and ate children in his spare time, his polling would probably drop twice that amount in 8 days. seriously- not unusual at all. especially during "silly season". If he murdered and ate children, yeah. What has America learned about him in the past 8 days? That his claim about seeing thousands celebrating 9/11 in NJ is almost certainly false? The future of your republic pivots on the answer to that question? Incidentally, I called the fluctuations absurd, not unusual. i don't know how to put it nicely, so here i go: no, America has not paid attention. instead, we have been paying attention to Ebola and Syrian refugees. and fine, they are both absurd and usual.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 29, 2015 15:41:22 GMT -5
If he murdered and ate children, yeah. What has America learned about him in the past 8 days? That his claim about seeing thousands celebrating 9/11 in NJ is almost certainly false? The future of your republic pivots on the answer to that question? Incidentally, I called the fluctuations absurd, not unusual. i don't know how to put it nicely, so here i go: no, America has not paid attention. instead, we have been paying attention to Ebola and Syrian refugees. and fine, they are both absurd and usual. 12% represents what? 18 million likely voters? Obviously those 18 million voters are changing their minds based on something.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 19:46:56 GMT -5
i don't know how to put it nicely, so here i go: no, America has not paid attention. instead, we have been paying attention to Ebola and Syrian refugees. and fine, they are both absurd and usual. 12% represents what? 18 million likely voters? Obviously those 18 million voters are changing their minds based on something. there is a supposition of why from the original posting of this data. it is difficult to say if it is accurate or not, but the data was confirmed with successive polling.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 29, 2015 21:18:23 GMT -5
BINGFUCKINGGO. Go back to your side of the aisle, dj. i answered his challenge. twice. and i AM on my side of the aisle. stop crowding me out, bro. You have no issue crowding out TEA Party conservatives like myself. It's YOUR party, and we embarrass you, right? So, yeah- I want you out. It's not that I want a smaller tent, it's that I want the big tent to evict the liberals, RINOs, and otherwise big government Republicans and make room for more conservatives and libertarians- the people that feel they don't have a party because both parties are statist, and/or have been staying home, and/or leaving the party.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 21:43:39 GMT -5
i answered his challenge. twice. and i AM on my side of the aisle. stop crowding me out, bro. You have no issue crowding out TEA Party conservatives like myself. It's YOUR party, and we embarrass you, right? So, yeah- I want you out. It's not that I want a smaller tent, it's that I want the big tent to evict the liberals, RINOs, and otherwise big government Republicans and make room for more conservatives and libertarians- the people that feel they don't have a party because both parties are statist, and/or have been staying home, and/or leaving the party. LOL! i see. you want a bigger tent that only includes people like you. got it. sounds kind of like Stalin. the more you want me to leave, the more i want to stay, Paul. edit: and don't play lillywhite with me, bro. you criticize the GOP just as much, if not MORE, than i do. if there is enough room for YOU, there is plenty of room for ME.
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Post by tallguy on Nov 29, 2015 21:48:53 GMT -5
Which are the interlopers? And which group should have started their own party?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 21:51:59 GMT -5
Which are the interlopers? And which group should have started their own party? this "last on board" idea makes me wonder if the same doesn't apply to immigration. do the last people on board the ship get to call the shots? or do Eisenhower Republicans, like me?
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Post by tallguy on Nov 29, 2015 21:54:24 GMT -5
Same thing occurred to me. Which board was it where I was reading complaints about immigrants (newcomers) coming in and trying to change things or take over? Hmmmm....
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 21:59:32 GMT -5
Same thing occurred to me. Which board was it where I was reading complaints about immigrants (newcomers) coming in and trying to change things or take over? Hmmmm.... maybe the best reply is to be totally patronizing: "there there, junior. just move along, and let the adults run things. you'll have your turn some day".
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Post by tallguy on Nov 29, 2015 22:04:49 GMT -5
Republican Party Platform of 1956 August 20, 1956
link
Interesting reading.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2015 22:06:25 GMT -5
the media needs to grow a spine, imo: it will be sad if they continue handling this guy with kid gloves just to save their "ratings". he really thinks that he should be able to call the shots. until someone confronts him, he is going to continue to be right. for now, he is dodging the 911 question. i guess his search for proof is not going so well. edit: his "proof" is that "hundreds" of people who called in to a radio show he was on "saw" the same thing. that might be true. but what they saw was NOT people cheering in NJ, because it actually didn't happen. this man is pathological if he can't admit to this very simple mistake.
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Nov 29, 2015 22:49:38 GMT -5
; if there is enough room for YOU, there is plenty of room for ME. I don't see why that can't be true. You guys do hit on a lot of the same points... the question then for both of you is who - out of the current political spectrum - is the best team for a Jeb/Rand ticket??(perfect because they are both stigmatized by family names.) Fight!
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Post by weltschmerz on Nov 30, 2015 1:05:46 GMT -5
the media needs to grow a spine, imo: it will be sad if they continue handling this guy with kid gloves just to save their "ratings". he really thinks that he should be able to call the shots. until someone confronts him, he is going to continue to be right. for now, he is dodging the 911 question. i guess his search for proof is not going so well. edit: his "proof" is that "hundreds" of people who called in to a radio show he was on "saw" the same thing. that might be true. but what they saw was NOT people cheering in NJ, because it actually didn't happen. this man is pathological if he can't admit to this very simple mistake.Admit? He doubles down, with a vengeance.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 30, 2015 3:46:54 GMT -5
How can you people possibly still care about this? Of all the man's faults... this one? Criticizing his support for waterboarding, I understand. The tweet with the incorrect homicide stats was worth a comment or two. But this? For eight straight days now? All I can say is don't come opining to me about how US politics has turned away from substantive discussion of the issues towards the nuclear-strength banality of gossiping about politicians' gaffes du jour.
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 30, 2015 8:25:01 GMT -5
The press and cable news have to stick to the plan. This wedge issue of Muslim's celebrating the Twin Towers by Trump is all they have to try and stop him. Meanwhile, somewhere in America, in an undisclosed location is Hillary laughing, maybe cackling, saying it will all work out for me after all.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 30, 2015 10:53:57 GMT -5
Isn't that a worthy tell Virgil? I can fully understand him mistaking the footage of thousands of Palestinians cheering with the footage and reportage of several American Muslims cheering the event. I certainly remember being enraged by both, and more so by the latter.
However once it all made news a quick look at the facts shows that he was mistaken- innocently mistaken I surmise. It is easy to transpose memories like that. However it is also obviously wrong. Why can't he admit that? It is either a mark of his pugnacious campaign style, or (worse) it is a pathological inability to admit failing- even perhaps to himself. The latter would be scary in a chief exec.
Having said all that, yes, he has made far worse transgressions. We know he's a liar. dondub put up the "caught in a lie" stats for all major contenders last week, and even the best of them lied three times as much as my 10% "total write-off" threshold. We unfortunately live in an era where admitting fault has grave political consequences. Mr. Trump is determined to win the election and he has no qualms about lying. That much was obvious years ago. He operates in a way he expects will minimize the political fallout for any lies or misstatements he's caught in, and that entails this particular marathon of denial. In short, he's acting in the way that the public has programmed politicians to act. He's an unscrupulous man; we know this. The particular issue of whether or not he mistook dancing foreigners for dancing Americans is inconsequential. Move onto his budget. Move onto his tax plan. Move onto his plans for foreign policy.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2015 11:10:59 GMT -5
the media needs to grow a spine, imo: it will be sad if they continue handling this guy with kid gloves just to save their "ratings". he really thinks that he should be able to call the shots. until someone confronts him, he is going to continue to be right. for now, he is dodging the 911 question. i guess his search for proof is not going so well. edit: his "proof" is that "hundreds" of people who called in to a radio show he was on "saw" the same thing. that might be true. but what they saw was NOT people cheering in NJ, because it actually didn't happen. this man is pathological if he can't admit to this very simple mistake.Admit? He doubles down, with a vengeance. which is awesome and admirable, when he is RIGHT. it speaks ill of him when he is dead wrong. however, for the WIV community, it is probably a selling point.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2015 11:13:41 GMT -5
How can you people possibly still care about this? Of all the man's faults... this one? Criticizing his support for waterboarding, I understand. The tweet with the incorrect homicide stats was worth a comment or two. But this? For eight straight days now? All I can say is don't come opining to me about how US politics has turned away from substantive discussion of the issues towards the nuclear-strength banality of gossiping about politicians' gaffes du jour. care about what? the pathological lying and exaggeration? how can you NOT care? he believes all kinds of things that are totally untrue. that worries me for TWO reasons. the first is that it shows that he possibly has NPD. the second is that he doesn't actually care about facts, and doesn't research them very well, and doesn't believe them when they conflict with his preconceptions. that is terrible in a leader, imo.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2015 11:16:38 GMT -5
The press and cable news have to stick to the plan. This wedge issue of Muslim's celebrating the Twin Towers by Trump is all they have to try and stop him. Meanwhile, somewhere in America, in an undisclosed location is Hillary laughing, maybe cackling, saying it will all work out for me after all. no. it is not "all they have". but he is clearly wrong about it. his OPINIONS are way more difficult to address, because that is what they are. this is not a matter of opinion.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2015 11:17:58 GMT -5
Isn't that a worthy tell Virgil? I can fully understand him mistaking the footage of thousands of Palestinians cheering with the footage and reportage of several American Muslims cheering the event. I certainly remember being enraged by both, and more so by the latter.
However once it all made news a quick look at the facts shows that he was mistaken- innocently mistaken I surmise. It is easy to transpose memories like that. However it is also obviously wrong. Why can't he admit that? It is either a mark of his pugnacious campaign style, or (worse) it is a pathological inability to admit failing- even perhaps to himself. The latter would be scary in a chief exec.
Having said all that, yes, he has made far worse transgressions. We know he's a liar. dondub put up the "caught in a lie" stats for all major contenders last week, and even the best of them lied three times as much as my 10% "total write-off" threshold. We unfortunately live in an era where admitting fault has grave political consequences. Mr. Trump is determined to win the election and he has no qualms about lying. That much was obvious years ago. He operates in a way he expects will minimize the political fallout for any lies or misstatements he's caught in, and that entails this particular marathon of denial. In short, he's acting in the way that the public has programmed politicians to act. He's an unscrupulous man; we know this. The particular issue of whether or not he mistook dancing foreigners for dancing Americans is inconsequential. Move onto his budget. Move onto his tax plan. Move onto his plans for foreign policy. oh we will, Virgil. but character issues matter a LOT in US politics. do i think that is a good thing? honestly, i don't know.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2015 11:18:40 GMT -5
Point taken. Not sure if he has any plans for any of than other than promises they will be magnificent and greeaaaattt, but, yeah.
he has a tax plan. the CBO scored it at -$12T.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 30, 2015 11:32:32 GMT -5
How can you people possibly still care about this? Of all the man's faults... this one? Criticizing his support for waterboarding, I understand. The tweet with the incorrect homicide stats was worth a comment or two. But this? For eight straight days now? All I can say is don't come opining to me about how US politics has turned away from substantive discussion of the issues towards the nuclear-strength banality of gossiping about politicians' gaffes du jour. care about what? the pathological lying and exaggeration? how can you NOT care? he believes all kinds of things that are totally untrue. that worries me for TWO reasons. the first is that it shows that he possibly has NPD. the second is that he doesn't actually care about facts, and doesn't research them very well, and doesn't believe them when they conflict with his preconceptions. that is terrible in a leader, imo. "Pathological lying and exaggeration" describes all of the major candidates. I don't know how you can draw any other conclusion from Don's numbers. It's what you have to work with. Accept it and move on.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 30, 2015 11:43:52 GMT -5
care about what? the pathological lying and exaggeration? how can you NOT care? he believes all kinds of things that are totally untrue. that worries me for TWO reasons. the first is that it shows that he possibly has NPD. the second is that he doesn't actually care about facts, and doesn't research them very well, and doesn't believe them when they conflict with his preconceptions. that is terrible in a leader, imo. "Pathological lying and exaggeration" describes all of the major candidates. I don't know how you can draw any other conclusion from Don's numbers. It's what you have to work with. Accept it and move on. i think there is a difference, Virgil. when confronted on their BS, most candidates will back down, or stop talking (tacit acknowledgement that they are BS'ing). i can't accept someone who doesn't seem to have any scruples whatsoever. sorry.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 30, 2015 12:02:27 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 30, 2015 12:02:59 GMT -5
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