Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 13, 2016 7:14:47 GMT -5
And Bernie almost won Iowa and he certainly had the youth vote. Im not saying they will all make their way over, but honestly I just think it's way too early to be completely confident in any polls. In U.S. politics, November 8th is a lifetime away.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 7:18:37 GMT -5
As Paul has pointed out Trump is gaining in the polls. Swing states are going Trump. Florida 42 to 39 Trump Iowa 44 to 42 Trump Pennsylvania 43 to 41 Trump Ohio now tied 41 to 41 with Kasich hating him...... Colorado is the outlier now, 45 Hillary, to Trump's 38
The swing states are the ones that decide the election of the President....... Trumpmentumn! is fast approaching.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 13, 2016 7:20:25 GMT -5
Trump is now leading in Iowa. 44% -42% -- but get this: with younger voters Trump 51% - Hillary 32%. Now, you can take that for what it's worth- younger voters are notoriously unreliable. The point is that's not supposed to happen. Democrats own the young, right? Then there's Trump's lead in Florida-- Trump 47% - Hillary 42%- the bonus here is that Trump has a YUGE lead with Hispanic voters- 49% to 36%. Then you've got this weird story out of Wisconsin where it appears House Speaker Paul Ryan is losing support-- still appears to be safe - 43% to 32%, but with 25% "undecided" whoa...Eric Cantor comes to mind. The unseen wave is still building-- but now, we're even seeing hints of it on the surface. Hillary has had a very, very tough couple of weeks. The country is in no mood for lectures on systemic racism in policing (e.g. -- "they had it coming"). Wait until that starts showing up in the polls... And for those of you still thinking Trump = Goldwater; you might want to start thinking Trump = Nixon. Yeah, yeah- that's not the point. The point is that Nixon won in a landslide... Geez, the same staff members who thought the star of David anti-Hillary poster was awesome have struck again - Trump needs to spend some money to get some staff who know how to proof read.
Plus who thought that picture of him is flattering? He looks like a constipated man trying to take a crap.
Maybe that's the reason for the grammatical error. When you're trying to pinch out a loaf, the mind gets confused.
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 13, 2016 7:21:39 GMT -5
US voters are fickle. We had some incidents the last few weeks that favor 'law and order' candidates, which Hillary is not.
Lots of events could happen between now and Nov 8th that could heavily favor either side.
I'm curious to see how the GOP convention comes off. If Trump pulls of a slick, energetic, well crafted convention week, he'll convince more voters he isn't as unstable as they feared and that he's fully capable of being POTUS. If, on the other hand, the convention is a mess, if there is an attempted GOP coup on the floor, if the armed melee outside turns bloody, it would most likely convince some Americans that Trump isn't capable of the POTUS job, and that he is such a polarizing figure our country would spend the next four years in chaos, should he be elected.
It will be interesting to see how it goes - at least for those of us not personally living in or near poor Cleveland.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2016 7:42:12 GMT -5
As Paul has pointed out Trump is gaining in the polls. Swing states are going Trump. Florida 42 to 39 Trump Iowa 44 to 42 Trump Pennsylvania 43 to 41 Trump Ohio now tied 41 to 41 with Kasich hating him...... Colorado is the outlier now, 45 Hillary, to Trump's 38 The swing states are the ones that decide the election of the President....... Trumpmentumn! is fast approaching. Not in the aggregate. In aggregate only Florida is Trump by .2
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 13, 2016 8:07:17 GMT -5
Bob: Look, Twiddle Dum is in the lead. Sue: Current polls are meaningless. November is a lifetime away. Bob: Lee-eead! Sue: Not by much. Meani... They're meaningless. Not by much, though. Also, meaningless. Bob: Twiddle Dumentum! ... (24 hours later) ... Sue: Twiddle Dee pulls ahead by 3 points in key states! Woot! Bob: Oh come on, polls at this point are so unreliable. Sue: Dum is finally melting down. Bob: Dee is only ahead by 3. Unrelia... Polls are so unreliable at this point. What a joke. But Dum can close a gap of 3 points. Also, joke. Sue: The Twiddle Deestroyer has come! ... (24 hours later) ... Bob: Have you seen the latest MSNBC poll? Sue: Don't make me laugh. Polling at this point in time... ... (repeat until November, or until Bob, Sue, and 120 million Americans clue in to what they sound like) (you'll probably be waiting until November )
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2016 9:55:27 GMT -5
I don't think the polls mean anything right now. That doesn't mean I wouldn't accurately state the outcomes. I just don't attribute anything much to those outcomes at this point.
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Post by Opti on Jul 13, 2016 10:10:33 GMT -5
Sanders is endorsing her in part to make sure his stuff stays on the party platform. If Bernie didn't endorse her, did not work with the party, his causes do not become national. If he really believes in higher minimum wages, cheaper college, etc. his best way to make that happen is endorse Clinton and work with the party.
Do you understand how politics works? What you wrote shows you might not. You are basically saying the equivalent of a husband or wife should fully stand their ground and never compromise. How would that work in RL? Unless you are a dictator, and even then, you aren't going to get your way all the time. A smart person learns how to negotiate and sometimes yes get what they can instead of zippo nada. Because what good are your principles if you do nothing to realize them?
<soapbox off... for now. >
A man with Bernie Sanders' principles and values should never be married to a woman with Hillary Clinton's principles and values. There's compromise for sake of party unity, and then there's making a deal with the Devil. There's flexibility and there's selling out. The man is sacrificing far too much. He's undermining quite literally everything that made him a worthy candidate in order to toe the party line. May a snow leopard eat him. I hope he chokes on his endorsement every bit as much as the Republican field chokes on their falling into line behind Mr. Trump in a desperate bid to stay relevant. He has stuff added to the party platform because of the success of his campaign. According to what I read, part of the reason he waited was to insure some of what he campaigned for was on the platform. He's not married to Hillary, but he did choose to run as a Democrat. I think you should read up on this. He is crafting part of the party line for the convention. I don't know why you think not being involved or just not endorsing Hillary would enhance his bona fides and help his causes.
Hillary is trying to do some wonderful things that she doesn't talk about much because unfortunately it often comes out wrong. Like her very progressive energy policy which a Sanders supporter told me about. And how exceptional it was. Bernie is being smart. I'm glad a way was found to embrace at least part of what he campaigned for into the party platform even if a Canadian to the north is unhappy.
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Post by Opti on Jul 13, 2016 10:12:08 GMT -5
Trump is now leading in Iowa. 44% -42% -- but get this: with younger voters Trump 51% - Hillary 32%. Now, you can take that for what it's worth- younger voters are notoriously unreliable. The point is that's not supposed to happen. Democrats own the young, right? Then there's Trump's lead in Florida-- Trump 47% - Hillary 42%- the bonus here is that Trump has a YUGE lead with Hispanic voters- 49% to 36%. Then you've got this weird story out of Wisconsin where it appears House Speaker Paul Ryan is losing support-- still appears to be safe - 43% to 32%, but with 25% "undecided" whoa...Eric Cantor comes to mind. The unseen wave is still building-- but now, we're even seeing hints of it on the surface. Hillary has had a very, very tough couple of weeks. The country is in no mood for lectures on systemic racism in policing (e.g. -- "they had it coming"). Wait until that starts showing up in the polls... And for those of you still thinking Trump = Goldwater; you might want to start thinking Trump = Nixon. Yeah, yeah- that's not the point. The point is that Nixon won in a landslide... Geez, the same staff members who thought the star of David anti-Hillary poster was awesome have struck again - Trump needs to spend some money to get some staff who know how to proof read.
Plus who thought that picture of him is flattering? He looks like a constipated man trying to take a crap.
I'd bet he OK'd that pic because he feels it makes him look tough. He's a micro-managing sort of guy. I expect he's more involved in decisions like these compared to most candidates.
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Post by Opti on Jul 13, 2016 10:14:46 GMT -5
Geez, the same staff members who thought the star of David anti-Hillary poster was awesome have struck again - Trump needs to spend some money to get some staff who know how to proof read.
Plus who thought that picture of him is flattering? He looks like a constipated man trying to take a crap.
Maybe that's the reason for the grammatical error. When you're trying to pinch out a loaf, the mind gets confused. I missed the 'law' mistake the first couple times. Talk about seeing things as you expect them, LOL.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 10:49:02 GMT -5
Survey Monkey Hillary only 3 points ahead now. personal remark deleted. thanks for the succinct reply. edit: the "latest poll" is not a good way to measure a candidate's progress, VB. that is because outliers make things appear differently than they are. IE- last week, a poll showed Clinton +11%. did i cite it here? no. Rasmussen is showing her down 2%, still. do i cite it here? no. why? for two reasons. the first is that they are BOTH outliers. and the second is that they are little changed from previous surveys. in other words, Rasmussen has been showing Clinton -2% pretty regularly (despite all other polls showing her up). that doesn't show ANY movement for Trump. you can do whatever you like, in terms of watching the polls. it is a free country. but i would precaution you not to read too much into a single poll UNLESS it shows significant progress/deterioration for a candidate over the PREVIOUS one BY THE SAME ORGANIZATION. edit2: Quinnipiac also shows her +3%- and that might be accurate. but there is STILL no poll movement in that. if you want me to guess, i would guess that there WILL NOT BE any major poll movement until after the conventions. the conventions tend to give a "bounce" to individual candidates. therefore, i would expect, like 2008, the GOP to be LEADING after their convention. and, of course, that will LIKELY evaporate after the Democratic convention.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 10:49:59 GMT -5
Dead heat. Democrats lose dead heats. it was a dead heat in OCTOBER 2012, according to the pollsters.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 10:51:50 GMT -5
Shogun Era, to be precise. are you familiar with it? it was an era marked by profound isolationism. No need to explain. I actually looked up the image again and came across the following captioned version: So, pretty obvious in retrospect. Sorry. the caption is hilarious. i selected that image "randomly".
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 11:02:24 GMT -5
And Bernie almost won Iowa and he certainly had the youth vote. Im not saying they will all make their way over, but honestly I just think it's way too early to be completely confident in any polls. polling this far out is fairly unreliable in terms of predicting the eventual winner. the odds get better after the conventions. edit: that having been said, i don't think the polls are meaningless. they are showing that Trump has a big hill to climb if he wants to win. i think he does.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 11:49:09 GMT -5
Survey Monkey Hillary only 3 points ahead now. personal remark deleted. thanks for the succinct reply. edit: the "latest poll" is not a good way to measure a candidate's progress, VB. that is because outliers make things appear differently than they are. IE- last week, a poll showed Clinton +11%. did i cite it here? no. Rasmussen is showing her down 2%, still. do i cite it here? no. why? for two reasons. the first is that they are BOTH outliers. and the second is that they are little changed from previous surveys. in other words, Rasmussen has been showing Clinton -2% pretty regularly (despite all other polls showing her up). that doesn't show ANY movement for Trump. you can do whatever you like, in terms of watching the polls. it is a free country. but i would precaution you not to read too much into a single poll UNLESS it shows significant progress/deterioration for a candidate over the PREVIOUS one BY THE SAME ORGANIZATION. edit2: Quinnipiac also shows her +3%- and that might be accurate. but there is STILL no poll movement in that. if you want me to guess, i would guess that there WILL NOT BE any major poll movement until after the conventions. the conventions tend to give a "bounce" to individual candidates. therefore, i would expect, like 2008, the GOP to be LEADING after their convention. and, of course, that will LIKELY evaporate after the Democratic convention. How was "dj likes to take the whole ball of wax", a personal remark that deserved deleting? You had to know I was referring you always combine polls to come to an observation. I explained you like to average polls with that remark, which you have stated many times here, but obviously you took it as a personal slam. I take the polls as they are reported, and make my observation. You are starting to take some statements way to personal. I hope this one is not so personal you delete and say it a "personal remark deleted"................Other posters can assume I slammed you, which I dd not due to your editing technique. If you are going to edit my impersonal remarks, I would prefer you not even bother responding to my posts, or just refer to my post number you are commenting to in the future. Or try just copying the sentence you are talking about without a reference to the rest of the post. Also, please note the spread in Florida. I had already called Florida for Trump in a thread. Anyway......when the swing states swing to Trump, you and I know who will win this fall. I would also like a few mods here to pm me if I am correct in my assertions about" personal remarks deleted" puts the original poster in a bad position of defending their post. If mods tell me there is no problem with this, I will never mention it again, since we know there is no discussion of pm's so I will never say so and so said it is ok to do that. TY
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 11:50:08 GMT -5
When Trump wins this fall, there are going to be some really bad feelings on this board
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 11:51:29 GMT -5
personal remark deleted. thanks for the succinct reply. edit: the "latest poll" is not a good way to measure a candidate's progress, VB. that is because outliers make things appear differently than they are. IE- last week, a poll showed Clinton +11%. did i cite it here? no. Rasmussen is showing her down 2%, still. do i cite it here? no. why? for two reasons. the first is that they are BOTH outliers. and the second is that they are little changed from previous surveys. in other words, Rasmussen has been showing Clinton -2% pretty regularly (despite all other polls showing her up). that doesn't show ANY movement for Trump. you can do whatever you like, in terms of watching the polls. it is a free country. but i would precaution you not to read too much into a single poll UNLESS it shows significant progress/deterioration for a candidate over the PREVIOUS one BY THE SAME ORGANIZATION. edit2: Quinnipiac also shows her +3%- and that might be accurate. but there is STILL no poll movement in that. if you want me to guess, i would guess that there WILL NOT BE any major poll movement until after the conventions. the conventions tend to give a "bounce" to individual candidates. therefore, i would expect, like 2008, the GOP to be LEADING after their convention. and, of course, that will LIKELY evaporate after the Democratic convention. How was "dj likes to take the whole ball of wax", a personal remark that deserved deleting? that's right. it has nothing to do with my preferences. i am simply citing RCP. i went to the extra trouble this time of explaining why. please take the time to understand it, and stop making this personal. tyia. edit: VB- would you prefer that i preface each poll quote with something like "according to RCP's poll of polls", or can you simply accept/remember that whatever i am posting here is from RCP? the reason i do this is that i want to keep my personal preferences OUT of it. RCP is not subjective, imo. it is simply how things are. if you want to argue with reality, that is entirely your choice. but i should warn you: any time i have done that in the past, i have lost. you will, too.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 11:52:36 GMT -5
Now that Hillary and Bernie have officially announced the socialist agenda of the no longer "Democratic party" I can only hope she picks Warren as her running mate this fall. When do they change the party name to "The Socialist Student Union Party"? It will be a spectacular crash and burn.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 11:53:13 GMT -5
When Trump wins this fall, there are going to be some really bad feelings on this board oh, i am sure there will be. but for the record, this has nothing to do with my "feelings". i dislike Trump. i dislike Clinton. i am not going to be happy either way. anything else that you might imagine is just that: your imagination. i put Trump at 2:5 as of today. he might win. but he is a definite longshot. agree or disagree?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 11:54:52 GMT -5
Also, please note the spread in Florida. I had already called Florida for Trump in a thread. note what?
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Post by weltschmerz on Jul 13, 2016 11:56:21 GMT -5
When Trump Hillary wins this fall, there are going to be some really bad feelings on this board **Fixed**
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 12:02:01 GMT -5
When Trump wins this fall, there are going to be some really bad feelings on this board oh, i am sure there will be. but for the record, this has nothing to do with my "feelings". i dislike Trump. i dislike Clinton. i am not going to be happy either way. anything else that you might imagine is just that: your imagination. i put Trump at 2:5 as of today. he might win. but he is a definite longshot. agree or disagree? dj, I was not really referencing you on that statement. We do know your feelings on both candidates. I can think of a few others who will be in severe depression over this. Longshot? Probably. I am looking at the few swing states that decide the election. He is running very well in them right now As I have stated, you know I am not sure I can vote for either major candidate........ I just "dislike" Clinton more than him, but it does not mean I can vote for him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 12:04:13 GMT -5
oh, i am sure there will be. but for the record, this has nothing to do with my "feelings". i dislike Trump. i dislike Clinton. i am not going to be happy either way. anything else that you might imagine is just that: your imagination. i put Trump at 2:5 as of today. he might win. but he is a definite longshot. agree or disagree? Longshot? Probably. I am looking at the few swing states that decide the election. He is running very well in them right now the latest Quinnipiac poll is very encouraging for him. is that what you are referring to? edit: that was a single survey. the PPP survey was very DISCOURAGING for him. so, i am waiting for a confirmation.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2016 12:07:42 GMT -5
OK Guys, enough of the personal warfare please?
Thanks,
deminmaine- Moderator. that was probably not necessary, but appreciated. i am merely stating that my personal preferences are not the issue. it is very clear that some here really want Hillary to go down in a fiery blaze. and probably just as many or more want Trump to go down in a fiery blaze. that's all fine. but it has nothing to do with the polls, which will indicate the likelihood of that happening. right now, i rate the flaming Hillary UNLIKELY. next week? who knows?
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Post by Opti on Jul 13, 2016 12:21:44 GMT -5
Flaming Trump? How would you be able to tell?
electiongraphs.com/2016ec/
Look at the Electoral College vote probability summaries. At this point, only if Trump does very well is he likely to win. Here's to Trump's moderate success...
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 12:39:18 GMT -5
Flaming Trump? How would you be able to tell?
electiongraphs.com/2016ec/
Look at the Electoral College vote probability summaries. At this point, only if Trump does very well is he likely to win. Here's to Trump's moderate success...
Get used to "President Trump" I am seeing an Electoral vote that will be 284 to 293 total right now. I am in the Midwest and do not rely on left and right coast views to distort the actual mood of the country. Yes things will probably change two or three times both ways between now and November. Remember all news outlets claimed after the primaries, polls mean nothing until after the conventions, but all they push are each and every poll that has been released as the new Gospel
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2016 12:41:03 GMT -5
I woulnd't know. i don't watch news.
I don't know that the middle of the country could carry any national election on its own....
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Post by Opti on Jul 13, 2016 12:49:42 GMT -5
Flaming Trump? How would you be able to tell?
electiongraphs.com/2016ec/
Look at the Electoral College vote probability summaries. At this point, only if Trump does very well is he likely to win. Here's to Trump's moderate success...
Get used to "President Trump" I am seeing an Electoral vote that will be 284 to 293 total right now. I am in the Midwest and do not rely on left and right coast views to distort the actual mood of the country. Yes things will probably change two or three times both ways between now and November. Remember all news outlets claimed after the primaries, polls mean nothing until after the conventions, but all they push are each and every poll that has been released as the new Gospel Dream on. I grew up in the Midwest, even went to school in Indiana. You don't need to look at views per se, just the reality of where the population centers are. NYC remains the largest city in the country with LA second. Chicago is third.
Believe what you like, but all I will have to remember is the campaign of Trump, nothing more.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2016 12:55:28 GMT -5
Get used to "President Trump" I am seeing an Electoral vote that will be 284 to 293 total right now. I am in the Midwest and do not rely on left and right coast views to distort the actual mood of the country. Yes things will probably change two or three times both ways between now and November. Remember all news outlets claimed after the primaries, polls mean nothing until after the conventions, but all they push are each and every poll that has been released as the new Gospel Dream on. I grew up in the Midwest, even went to school in Indiana. You don't need to look at views per se, just the reality of where the population centers are. NYC remains the largest city in the country with LA second. Chicago is third.
Believe what you like, but all I will have to remember is the campaign of Trump, nothing more.
Trump does not need Illinois, NY or California to win. Let Hillary run the numbers up in those states. Who was the last President who won the Presidency without Ohio? The few swing states are the ones that name the winner.
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 13, 2016 12:59:02 GMT -5
... Who was the last President who won the Presidency without Ohio? ... John Adams?
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