Stock Pick of the Week: W. E. 24 Jul 2015

[clarkrl2]

Rules:
1. Selection must be made prior to the opening bell on the first trading day of the week.
2. Selection may be changed up to the opening bell.
3. Starting price is the opening price on first trading day of week.
4. Ending price is closing price on last trading day of week.
5. No options or complex trading vehicles. Only stocks and ETFs.
6. Opening prices will be those found at Yahoo Finance. Any disputed opening price will be resolved using the price listed at Yahoo Finance historical quotes

To enter the game:
List your stock's symbol, Long or Short, Company name, what the company does and why you like the selection.

Congratulations to last week's winner "Value Buy".

Moderators please pin the thread.

[ModE98]

Will stick with R (Long) one more week.  Ryder System.

[uncle23]

....




...NVAX.... long




Business Summary
Novavax, Inc., a clinical-stage vaccine company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants. 

[clarkrl2]

Long CBB (Cincinnati Bell - Telecom Services)

From a tweaked version of the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen. I like the chart and Zacks has it as a number 1 buy. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p14404535419

[kadee79]

Good pick Uncle....that was the one I was going to choose this week!

Sooo, I'll go with CRY, long  And we shall see how it does!

[architecto25]

    ZGNX     (long)    Zogenix Inc.
This stock closed Friday at $21.13
Pharmaceuticals.
Founded 5/11/2006
Hdq. in San Diego, CA
201 employees
    I just couldn't sit out this contest this week.

[Value Buy]

My first pick was going to be Apple, but is up $2 in early trading, at $131.62, and up from the $121 range in a week. Sometimes earnings do not propel the stock after announcing.
Next pick was Amazon but it's up $8 in early trading. Just too rich for me.
I was thinking Under Armour because Jason Spieth and the Irish Amauter are both wearng their clothing today, but might not win.
That leaves me with either Gopro or my nemesis CMG.
CMG could go either way, maybe $80 a share up or down this week. I cannot see thru my crystal ball this week. I do think they are priced for perfection based on earnings estimates........if they hit it, the sky is the limit this week. If they don't................
So, I will go with GoPro this week
GPRO, LONG.

Good luck to everyone!

[Ombud]

Just back from Alaska where finance was the LAST thing on my mind. Will play next week. Honestly have no idea what's going on in the market

[architecto25]

Ombud, ref. your post #7 this morning. Since I've been to Alaska twice .... it would be interesting to me to hear more of your

travels.  I was flying military aircraft out of Fairbanks. One trip was summer; other in Nov. BBRRRRRR.

[Ombud]

Hiking and ziplining was great! It's so open Cold but well worth it. Great lesson for GS1 as he was trying to figure out how people afford it -- he's 18 so it's time for him to think along those lines (keeping life's options open)

[ModE98]

Never have been to Alaska, but spent 5 months in mid-winter in the Yukon Territory of Canada (Watson Lake) just off the Alcan Hwy.  Nice and cold, temps between -30 to -52 once the snow really came (Nov 1945-Feb 1946).  Late Sep 45 was gnat time (in swarms..ugh) so was happy when Winter set in and they were gone.  This trip was courtesy of the Army Air Corps just at the end of WWII.

Nice to have you back, Ombud.  Glad you enjoyed your vacation.  Teach GS1 to always put aside 10% of earnings and invest well.

[ModE98]

VB, you settled on a good horse to start the week.

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy breaks from the gate clean to take the day one lead. uncle23 also had a good start to take control of second and ModE92 is the only other player beating the benchmark.

Player	L or S	Symbol	$ Open	$ Close	% Close
Value Buy	L	GPRO	$58.67	$60.80	3.63%
uncle.23	L	NVAX	$12.16	$12.43	2.22%
Mod E	L	R	$91.60	$91.71	0.12%
BenchMark	L	QQQ	$113.85	$113.98	0.11%
clarkrl2	L	CBB	$3.89	$3.88	-0.26%
kadee66	L	CRY	$11.67	$11.58	-0.77%
architecto25	L	ZGNX	$21.25	$20.38	-4.09%

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy continues to lead after day two. ModE92 is second and uncle23 is the only other player beating the benchmark.

Player	L or S	Symbol	$ Open	$ Close	% Close
Value Buy	L	GPRO	$58.67	$62.04	5.74%
Mod E	L	R	$91.60	$93.27	1.82%
uncle.23	L	NVAX	$12.16	$12.32	1.32%
BenchMark	L	QQQ	$113.85	$113.91	0.05%
clarkrl2	L	CBB	$3.89	$3.86	-0.77%
kadee66	L	CRY	$11.67	$11.52	-1.29%
architecto25	L	ZGNX	$21.25	$20.72	-2.49%

[ModE98]

Beat the BenchMark, that's the goal, anything above is extra gravy on the potatoes.

[Value Buy]

Well, Apple beat numbers and still fell back to around $121.
CMG was lite on revenue, but beat on earnings per share and fell, 
GPRO easily beat on earnings and revenue, and was down several dollars a share in after hours trading, only to finally go up a little in late after hours trading.
After yesterday when IBM underwhelmed the market, and Yahoo missing numbers today, it looks like a rocky ride for stocks reporting this quarter.

Tomorrow should be interesting.

[Value Buy]

Well, that was a real short sell off for CMG.
A hundred dollar swing to the upside off it's after market lows yesterday.........
And the darn stock did not hit revenue mark.
Apple is still down a little, but better than last night and made BILLIONS!

The after hour traders trying to hit the momentum have been way off their marks this week. Many have been taken to the woodshed in a day and a half.

[ModE98]

Hmmm.  R is down at the close today with earnings report due tomorrow.  Not the best advance sign for expectations.  Hope it does not take a dive on the announcement.  A nice positive surprise would be fine

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy still holds the lead as the contest moves past halfway. uncle23 is a closer second and ModE92 third. Four of six are beating the benchmark.

Player	L or S	Symbol	$ Open	$ Close	% Close
Value Buy	L	GPRO	$58.67	$61.68	5.13%
uncle.23	L	NVAX	$12.16	$12.42	2.14%
Mod E	L	R	$91.60	$93.08	1.62%
clarkrl2	L	CBB	$3.89	$3.89	0.00%
BenchMark	L	QQQ	$113.85	$112.62	-1.08%
architecto25	L	ZGNX	$21.25	$20.98	-1.27%
kadee66	L	CRY	$11.67	$11.45	-1.89%

[Value Buy]

Under Amour came thru on earnings this morning. Big jump in the stock.
I did not expect such good earnings. I expected a jump if Jordan Spieth won last weekend/Monday, pushing the marketing hype chasing the Grand Slam in golf.

[ModE98]

R reported better earnings, but fell short on revenue for the quarter.  Down we go...... Look out below!!!!

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy takes a huge lead into the final day as he tries to go wire to wire. clarkrl2 is the best of the rest and uncle23 is the only other player beating the benchmark.

Player	L or S	Symbol	$ Open	$ Close	% Close
Value Buy	L	GPRO	$58.67	$63.95	9.00%
clarkrl2	L	CBB	$3.89	$3.85	-1.03%
uncle.23	L	NVAX	$12.16	$11.99	-1.40%
BenchMark	L	QQQ	$113.85	$112.20	-1.45%
Mod E	L	R	$91.60	$88.42	-3.47%
kadee66	L	CRY	$11.67	$11.24	-3.68%
architecto25	L	ZGNX	$21.25	$20.27	-4.61%

[Value Buy]

clarkl2, 
I was curious on your pick this week, so I was checking it out.
It is interesting, but not sure if it is my cup of tea.
Of course I am looking over the long term rather than a week.
Do you think it could be a take out candidate?

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy, when I looked at the results in my normal screen, I couldn't find anything.

I've been running a practice portfolio at WallStreetSurvivor using a tweaked version of the screen. The normal screen has a price to cash flow < 10 requirement that the tweaked version does not include. The tweaked screen includes formulas that allow me to find stocks where the weekly chart has a green elder bar that has just changed from red or blue without going to stockcharts. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBB&p=W&st=2015-01-01&en=today&id=p68777898782 if you look at the chart now you can see the bar is now blue but was green on the weekend. Also when I pick stocks from this tweaked version I go to Zacks and look at the detailed estimate page. I prefer stocks where the current year and next year mean estimates are up more than 5% in the last 90 days. CBB was up from -.10 to -.9 for the current year or 10% and up from .03 to .08 or 167% for next year. I also much prefer a number one buy rating. www.zacks.com/stock/quote/cbb/detailed-estimates Both screens require an earnings beat the previous quarter.

This model portfolio was started the first day of the year and is up more than 10% currently. I only buy Zacks number one buy ratings and sell the next month if they are rated three or less. I typically have 5 to 7 stocks out of a maximum 10. This return compares well to the IWM which is up about 4% ytd assuming you were fully invested.

I learned about a similar method of screening at AAII and it can be very profitable but you almost have to ignore valuations. This is more of an earnings momentum selection process which can give you some very large gains in short periods of time but you have to be patient. For whatever reason stocks from these screens are bought out by other companies and sometimes they continue to get upward estimate revisions and beat estimates. Unfortunately I haven't come up with a way of determining which are most likely to be bought out or get further upward estimate revisions.

I considered buying some CBB this week but on Monday AEL turned up on my regular screen and I decided to go with it as a real money play. CBB reports before market open. Any big moves up or down in the stock will likely occur at that time. I was thinking AEL might benefit if fixed income rates start rising making their products more attractive.

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy goes wire to wire to gain this week's win and accolades for back to back victories. No one else could defeat the benchmark but uncle23 was the best of the rest for third.

Player	L or S	Symbol	$ Open	$ Close	% Close
Value Buy	L	GPRO	$58.67	$62.17	5.97%
BenchMark	L	QQQ	$113.85	$111.10	-2.42%
uncle.23	L	NVAX	$12.16	$11.79	-3.04%
Mod E	L	R	$91.60	$87.72	-4.24%
architecto25	L	ZGNX	$21.25	$20.27	-4.61%
clarkrl2	L	CBB	$3.89	$3.67	-5.66%
kadee66	L	CRY	$11.67	$10.80	-7.46%

[clarkrl2]

2015 results

Name	Games	Win	Place	Show	>Bench	Return
tyfighter3	12	2	2	2	8	1.61
Ombud	21	1	4	2	13	0.98
Value Buy	23	5	0	3	11	0.58
clarkrl2	30	3	3	3	13	0.39
kadee66	29	6	3	6	17	0.26
BenchMark	30	1	2	6	0	0.16
Mod E	30	3	7	5	18	0.12
D. I.	14	0	2	0	7	-0.16
architecto25	30	7	2	0	12	-0.67
uncle.23	30	2	5	3	11	-2.50
damnotagain	3	0	0	0	1	-4.30

lifetime results

Name	Games	Win	Place	Show	>Bench	Return
bimetalaupt	4	1	0	0	1	2.78
Value Buy	68	16	3	7	33	1.47
m2w	8	2	1	0	3	1.15
damnotagain	20	2	3	3	10	0.83
2kids10horses	10	0	2	1	4	0.33
Mod E	82	7	11	15	46	0.32
D. I.	61	1	8	6	34	0.32
BenchMark	82	1	7	9	0	0.25
Ombud	66	5	6	12	35	0.15
clarkrl2	82	8	11	8	37	-0.03
kadee66	74	12	12	8	38	-0.11
tyfighter3	34	3	2	3	14	-0.28
architecto25	82	16	5	5	34	-0.68
uncle.23	82	8	11	5	28	-1.82
alliesmom	2	0	0	0	1	-6.82

[ModE98]

Nice solid win this week, VB. 
BenchMark was a strong taskmaster winning Place, with Uncle trailing by 1/2 a length.
Actually, this was a lousy week, except for VB.   Argh!
Next week is setting up to be a rough one too.

[architecto25]

Yes, I almost did not even walk a horse to the starting gates, & just clicked on the "finals"... thought I'd be
at the bottom, ....as I was most of the week.... Very pleased I finished as #5. I'm still involved in a major
move ..... starting gates Monday ....  not sure yet. You'll have a good weekend.

[kadee79]

Congrats to VB & Uncle!