China Bans Selling (You Can't Make This Stuff Up!)

[Virgil Showlion]

In a desperate attempt to halt their stock market crash:

What do you do when two policy rate cuts, $19 billion in committed support from a hastily contrived broker consortium, and a promise of central bank funding for the expansion of margin lending all fail to quell extreme volatility in a collapsing equity market?

Well, you can simply ban selling, which is apparently the next step for China.

According to Caijing, the country's national social security fund is now forbidden from selling (but is welcome to buy). Here's more, via Caijing (Google translated):

Social Security informed the public fund social security portfolio not only buy sell stock

"Financial" reporter learned that the Social Security Council on Monday (July 6) Call each raised funds, social security portfolio is not allowed to sell their holdings of stock.

Sources said that Social Security Council has just informed all social security portfolio can only buy stocks can not sell the stock; and it is not defined as the net selling, but completely unable to sell the stock.

And a bit more from FT:

Financial magazine Caijing reported on Monday that the National Social Security Fund had told its external fund managers they could buy stocks but were not permitted to sell them.

Central Huijin, a unit of China’s sovereign wealth fund, also said on Sunday it was supporting the market by buying blue-chip exchange traded funds.

U.S. policymakers are taking notes as we speak. U.S. exchanges have certainly banned shorting stocks in the past, and key exchanges have a habit of experiencing "technical difficulties" during periods of high-volume selling. And of course the PPT (a.k.a. the Fed) has mastered the art of buying into precipitous downswings since 2009. But not even Uncle Sam has dared rig markets so overtly as to ban selling.

I don't know what planet these central planners live on. Global growth has collapsed. It's just not there. You're not going to hold the works together with happy thoughts and duct tape, I'm sorry.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Is this fallout from the whole Greece vote or is this completely mostly unrelated to that? 

[Deleted]

why has global growth collapsed?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 6, 2015 16:04:35 GMT -5 @hickle said:

why has global growth collapsed?

it hasn't:

data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries?display=graph

global growth is trending flat to slightly higher since 2012.  Virgil is making stuff up.

[buystoys]

Jul 6, 2015 13:49:52 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

 You're not going to hold the works together with happy thoughts and duct tape, I'm sorry.

As long as the happy thoughts and duct tape are working to hold my favorite pool floatie together, I'm good. 

[resolution]

It looks like a huge number of the companies on their index are asking for trading to be halted due to the ongoing melt down.

www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/07/us-china-markets-idUSKCN0PH08Q20150707

Traders are increasingly nervous about the unusually large number of Chinese companies asking for their shares to be suspended from trading, fearing that many of them are looking for excuses to duck out of the turmoil.

About a quarter of the roughly 2,800 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen had filed for a trading halt by the close on Monday, and on Tuesday the Securities Times said another 200 announced a suspension.

The plunge in China's previously booming stock markets, which had more than doubled in the year to mid-June, is a major headache for President Xi Jinping and China's top leaders, who are already struggling to avert a sharper economic slowdown.

Beijing's interventionist response has also raised questions about its ability to enact the market liberalization steps that are a centerpiece of its economic reform agenda.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 6, 2015 16:04:35 GMT -5 @hickle said:

why has global growth collapsed?

A variety of factors. The withdrawal of the Fed stimulus at the end of last year is one of them. Growth projections for 2015 have dropped successively from 5% to 3% to 1.25% to 0.75%, and may wind up flirting with recessionary territory if the trend continues.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 6, 2015 16:25:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 6, 2015 16:04:35 GMT -5 @hickle said:

why has global growth collapsed?

it hasn't:

data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries?display=graph

global growth is trending flat to slightly higher since 2012.  Virgil is making stuff up.

For a guy who screams bloody murder when I accuse him of making stuff up, insisting that I ought to ask whether I'm interpreting his statements correctly before going after them, ...

Do unto others, sir.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 7, 2015 9:24:12 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 6, 2015 16:25:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

it hasn't:

data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries?display=graph

global growth is trending flat to slightly higher since 2012.  Virgil is making stuff up.

For a guy who screams bloody murder when I accuse him of making stuff up, insisting that I ought to ask whether I'm interpreting his statements correctly before going after them, ...

Do unto others, sir.

sorry, but your words seemed fairly obvious.  if they were not obvious, then what did you mean by "global growth is plummeting" or whatever chicken little phrasing you used in the OP.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 7, 2015 10:44:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 7, 2015 9:24:12 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

For a guy who screams bloody murder when I accuse him of making stuff up, insisting that I ought to ask whether I'm interpreting his statements correctly before going after them, ...

Do unto others, sir.

sorry, but your words seemed fairly obvious.  if they were not obvious, then what did you mean by "global growth is plummeting" or whatever chicken little phrasing you used in the OP.

The OP is right there. The Chicken Little phrasing is "Global growth has collapsed."

See my reply to hickle for the specific meaning of the comment.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 7, 2015 9:19:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 6, 2015 16:04:35 GMT -5 @hickle said:

why has global growth collapsed?

A variety of factors. The withdrawal of the Fed stimulus at the end of last year is one of them. Growth projections for 2015 have dropped successively from 5% to 3% to 1.25% to 0.75%, and may wind up flirting with recessionary territory if the trend continues.

link?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 7, 2015 10:52:49 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 7, 2015 10:44:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

sorry, but your words seemed fairly obvious.  if they were not obvious, then what did you mean by "global growth is plummeting" or whatever chicken little phrasing you used in the OP.

The OP is right there. The Chicken Little phrasing is "Global growth has collapsed."

See my reply to hickle for the specific meaning of the comment.

you replied AFTER i did.  but nice ex-post-facto defense.  i have to remember that one.

edit: your phrase is not accurate, by the way.  HAS COLLAPSED is not a phrase that applies to FORECASTS.  you should have said "is collapsing", or "will collapse", which is the sort of conjecture i am used to from you.  ie "the US economy WILL COLLAPSE before Obama leaves office", and "California WILL NOT have a budget surplus before 2016".  that sort of thing. 

i stand by my earlier objection: the global economy HAS NOT collapsed. 

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 7, 2015 10:55:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 7, 2015 10:52:49 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

The OP is right there. The Chicken Little phrasing is "Global growth has collapsed."

See my reply to hickle for the specific meaning of the comment.

you replied AFTER i did.  but nice ex-post-facto defense.  i have to remember that one.

edit: your phrase is not accurate, by the way.  HAS COLLAPSED is not a phrase that applies to FORECASTS.  you should have said "is collapsing", or "will collapse", which is the sort of conjecture i am used to from you.  ie "the US economy WILL COLLAPSE before Obama leaves office", and "California WILL NOT have a budget surplus before 2016".  that sort of thing. 

"Is collapsing." Whatever.

My response to hickle (Reply #6) clearly comes before your request for clarification (Reply #8).

I didn't bookmark the 2015 growth forecast chart, but I'll post it if I happen across it again.

That reminds me: FY2014 is over now, and that was the year for our CA surplus bet. Did CA have a surplus? Who wins the bet?

[Wisconsin Beth]

You should start a new thread on that Virgil - I suspect there's enough people who've heard about the bet but don't know all the details (like when it was due to end) that would like to hear.  I know I would. 

[djAdvocate]

Jul 7, 2015 11:14:23 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 7, 2015 10:55:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

you replied AFTER i did.  but nice ex-post-facto defense.  i have to remember that one.

edit: your phrase is not accurate, by the way.  HAS COLLAPSED is not a phrase that applies to FORECASTS.  you should have said "is collapsing", or "will collapse", which is the sort of conjecture i am used to from you.  ie "the US economy WILL COLLAPSE before Obama leaves office", and "California WILL NOT have a budget surplus before 2016".  that sort of thing. 

"Is collapsing." Whatever.

My response to hickle (Reply #6) clearly comes before your request for clarification (Reply #8).

I didn't bookmark the 2015 growth forecast chart, but I'll post it if I happen across it again.

That reminds me: FY2014 is over now, and that was the year for our CA surplus bet. Did CA have a surplus? Who wins the bet?

words matter, Virgil.  i don't object to your speculations, because they are just that.  speculations.  your track record on such things speaks for itself.

HAS HAPPENED can be verified.  or, in this case, can't be.

i already responded to the surplus bet.  i won.  you never responded to my response, so i figured you were sneaking out of it.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 7, 2015 11:18:01 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

You should start a new thread on that Virgil - I suspect there's enough people who've heard about the bet but don't know all the details (like when it was due to end) that would like to hear.  I know I would. 

i found the thread and topped it.  it is in politics.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 7, 2015 11:55:57 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 27% in less than a month — a huge reversal from the 117% gain over the past eight months.

And this splashy volatility has everyone worried about the precipitating negative effects on the Chinese economy.

But the actual effect may be less than analysts are expecting:

"The stock market wealth effect in China is smaller than many assume, as stocks represent less than 15% of household financial assets and equity issuance accounts for less than 5% of total social financing," writes Qu Hongbin, HSBC's chief economist for Greater China, in a Tuesday note to clients.

Read more: www.businessinsider.com/most-chinese-investors-and-corporations-are-not-invested-in-stock-market-2015-7#ixzz3fE32KVkW

keep in mind that the Shanghai was up 150% before that fall, so it is still up 100% from it's last low.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 7, 2015 11:38:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 7, 2015 11:14:23 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

"Is collapsing." Whatever.

My response to hickle (Reply #6) clearly comes before your request for clarification (Reply #8).

I didn't bookmark the 2015 growth forecast chart, but I'll post it if I happen across it again.

That reminds me: FY2014 is over now, and that was the year for our CA surplus bet. Did CA have a surplus? Who wins the bet?

words matter, Virgil.  i don't object to your speculations, because they are just that.  speculations.  your track record on such things speaks for itself.

HAS HAPPENED can be verified.  or, in this case, can't be.

i already responded to the surplus bet.  i won.  you never responded to my response, so i figured you were sneaking out of it.

No, no. If I lost the bet, I lost the bet.

I don't "go" into Politics/CE anymore, so if you want me to read something there, you have to tag me.

Where are you getting your CA figures from?

[Deleted]

is this an historically significant event?

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 8, 2015 19:05:39 GMT -5 @hickle said:

is this an historically significant event?

That's a good question. I'm not sure.

I know China crashed hard during the 2007 downturn, hence I doubt it.

...at least, for now.

[Tennesseer]

Jul 8, 2015 20:13:51 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Somebody is always saying that the world is coming to an end.

Someday they will actually be right.

But will anyone be around to note it?

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2015 20:13:51 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Somebody is always saying that the world is coming to an end.

Someday they will actually be right.

bad things happen, its  not saying the world will end.

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2015 6:00:21 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Jul 8, 2015 20:26:57 GMT -5 @hickle said:

bad things happen, its  not saying the world will end.

This has been sort of an ongoing dialogue for quite some time hickle; you may not have seen all of it.  According to the patter, the US is in a profound moral and (hence) social decay, and this moral rot is infecting us such that we cannot economically produce, we can't defer our pleasures for need of instant gratification, and we are borrowing and spending our way to fiscal and national ruin.

As the economic engine of the free world, we will take it down with us, and certainly Canada, which can't help but be sucked into our maelstrom.  We are doomed, and the end is near and getting closer all the time, as we rush faster and faster into our decline.

There is more, and some of it is more nuanced, but I think this is the gist of it.  And it is a compelling theory.  Heck, we were reading comparisons of our Empire to that of ancient Rome back when I was a kid. (eons ago, just as this decay and rot was taking hold)

Of course, someday, something will happen, and the United States will be no more.  It is inevitable.  The question is, will it be in 5 years, or will it be 500?  I bet on the latter, because otherwise there is no point in trying.

I am a glass half empty pessimist type, that is true.  But catastrophic things have happened to the United States.  It doesn't have to end to be terrible. My grandparents went through WW2.  It is true we won, but there were (I am guessing and going off memory)  ~50 million dead and 200 million left homeless.  The 200M would represent about 1/10 of the world population.  My grandparent's grandparents went through the Civil War.  i think it was one of the bloodiest wars ever,  (again going off memory).

If Phil is correct that we can and should go off past averages to figure out future rates, we are in for a period of high interest rates one day.  The average loan rate is ~5%.  With very low rates for a while now, we need to go above 5% to get back to average, but even if the government starts paying just 5% on the national debt, the world is in for a very hard time.

I think you and many of the posters here are doing well, but that is not  really indicative of the nation as a whole.  We have record numbers and record percentage of pop. (again I think) on disabliity.  There is a large percentage of the pop. who are doing worse then their parents.

We are throwing away important rights for nothing (my opinion) and that will cost America.

Like I said I am more of a pessimist then many, but I think a lot of bad could happen and the US not fail.  All my opinion where it is opinion.

[djAdvocate]

china imposed trading restrictions and their market is bouncing back.

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2015 12:40:06 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 7, 2015 11:38:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

words matter, Virgil.  i don't object to your speculations, because they are just that.  speculations.  your track record on such things speaks for itself.

HAS HAPPENED can be verified.  or, in this case, can't be.

i already responded to the surplus bet.  i won.  you never responded to my response, so i figured you were sneaking out of it.

No, no. If I lost the bet, I lost the bet.

I don't "go" into Politics/CE anymore, so if you want me to read something there, you have to tag me.

Where are you getting your CA figures from?

Was it the school bus full of puppies post landing on the school post?    That was one of the funniest yet ever.  Showed it to the DW and she just about passed out from laughing so hard.  Please accept my ten Kudos for that one!    Sorry about the Kudos delivery delay, but that thread was locked.  

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 10, 2015 14:07:11 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Jul 7, 2015 12:40:06 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

No, no. If I lost the bet, I lost the bet.

I don't "go" into Politics/CE anymore, so if you want me to read something there, you have to tag me.

Where are you getting your CA figures from?

Was it the school bus full of puppies post landing on the school post?    That was one of the funniest yet ever.  Showed it to the DW and she just about passed out from laughing so hard.  Please accept my ten Kudos for that one!    Sorry about the Kudos delivery delay, but that thread was locked.  

It might have had something to do with that.

Let it be a warning to you. If ever somebody packs every last pro-choice trope ever conceived by man into a single "anecdote"--twice--resist the urge to satirize it.