Puerto Rican Financial Crisis

[fairlycrazy23]

Jun 29, 2015 17:44:34 GMT -5 @sroo4 said:

So another thread on this subject got me to thinking...would there be any benefit for the Us to go in, bankroll Greece and use their EU status to our benefit?  Could it be done? Would we gain trade benefits, or by having a seat at the EU table?  

Hmmm...

We will be too busy bailing out Puerto Rico


Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

[The Captain]

Jun 30, 2015 8:27:56 GMT -5 fairlycrazy23 said:

Jun 29, 2015 17:44:34 GMT -5 @sroo4 said:

So another thread on this subject got me to thinking...would there be any benefit for the Us to go in, bankroll Greece and use their EU status to our benefit?  Could it be done? Would we gain trade benefits, or by having a seat at the EU table?  

Hmmm...

We will be too busy bailing out Puerto Rico


Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

Yea, saw that.  Sure as hell hope not.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/puerto-ricos-leader-says-washington-must-help-with-staggering-debt/2015/06/29/dbb99b6e-1e83-11e5-aeb9-a411a84c9d55_story.html

They've spent decades socializing themselves into this mess.  They can figure how to get themselves out of it.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 8:51:09 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Jun 30, 2015 8:27:56 GMT -5 fairlycrazy23 said:

We will be too busy bailing out Puerto Rico


Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

Yea, saw that.  Sure as hell hope not.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/puerto-ricos-leader-says-washington-must-help-with-staggering-debt/2015/06/29/dbb99b6e-1e83-11e5-aeb9-a411a84c9d55_story.html

They've spent decades socializing themselves into this mess.  They can figure how to get themselves out of it.

not aware of that.  i am aware that they have been a tax haven forever, however.

[The Captain]

Jun 30, 2015 9:10:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 30, 2015 8:51:09 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Yea, saw that.  Sure as hell hope not.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/puerto-ricos-leader-says-washington-must-help-with-staggering-debt/2015/06/29/dbb99b6e-1e83-11e5-aeb9-a411a84c9d55_story.html

They've spent decades socializing themselves into this mess.  They can figure how to get themselves out of it.

not aware of that.  i am aware that they have been a tax haven forever, however.

My turn to lack knowledge. I'm more familiar with the Bermudas and Irelands of the world. How exactly is their tax situation structured as to be a corporate tax haven?

Ahhh - do you mean individual tax haven?  Did a little research and found this:

www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-06-26/puerto-rico-tax-haven-for-americas-super-rich

Since I generally don't do individual taxes I wasn't aware of this. 

Which, IMHO - makes their situation even worse.  Don't cut taxes to stupid low rates then expect someone else to bail you out.

Yep - I said it - people do need to pay taxes to support the services they expect to receive.  What a shocker.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:25:30 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Jun 30, 2015 9:10:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

not aware of that.  i am aware that they have been a tax haven forever, however.

My turn to lack knowledge. I'm more familiar with the Bermudas and Irelands of the world. How exactly is their tax situation structured as to be a corporate tax haven?

Ahhh - do you mean individual tax haven?  Did a little research and found this:

www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-06-26/puerto-rico-tax-haven-for-americas-super-rich

Since I generally don't do individual taxes I wasn't aware of this. 

Which, IMHO - makes their situation even worse.  Don't cut taxes to stupid low rates then expect someone else to bail you out.

Yep - I said it - people do need to pay taxes to support the services they expect to receive.  What a shocker.

not sure you are viewing this situation correctly.  they don't regulate their own revenues OR expenses.  it is all done stateside.

then again, i don't really know that much about PR, either.  i just don't think the appraisal that this is the fault of "socialism" makes much sense, considering that PR is kind of a neoconservative wet dream.

[The Captain]

Jun 30, 2015 9:28:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 30, 2015 9:25:30 GMT -5 The Captain said:

My turn to lack knowledge. I'm more familiar with the Bermudas and Irelands of the world. How exactly is their tax situation structured as to be a corporate tax haven?

Ahhh - do you mean individual tax haven?  Did a little research and found this:

www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-06-26/puerto-rico-tax-haven-for-americas-super-rich

Since I generally don't do individual taxes I wasn't aware of this. 

Which, IMHO - makes their situation even worse.  Don't cut taxes to stupid low rates then expect someone else to bail you out.

Yep - I said it - people do need to pay taxes to support the services they expect to receive.  What a shocker.

not sure you are viewing this situation correctly.  they don't regulate their own revenues OR expenses.  it is all done stateside.

then again, i don't really know that much about PR, either.  i just don't think the appraisal that this is the fault of "socialism" makes much sense, considering that PR is kind of a neoconservative wet dream.

Perhaps I am not viewing it correctly. I would like to discuss it in further detail to get a better understanding as I'm not sure what you mean by a neoconservative wet dream (seriously! - remember - I don't debate or discuss such other than here).

Do you mind if I start a new thread on PR and move our posts there?

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:30:37 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Jun 30, 2015 9:28:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

not sure you are viewing this situation correctly.  they don't regulate their own revenues OR expenses.  it is all done stateside.

then again, i don't really know that much about PR, either.  i just don't think the appraisal that this is the fault of "socialism" makes much sense, considering that PR is kind of a neoconservative wet dream.

Perhaps I am not viewing it correctly. I would like to discuss it in further detail to get a better understanding as I'm not sure what you mean by a neoconservative wet dream (seriously! - remember - I don't debate or discuss such other than here).

Do you mind if I start a new thread on PR and move our posts there?

not in the least!

[Deleted]

But I want to know too!.... Never mind. I though t I read PM, not new thread on PR... I'll go find that!

[The Captain]

Moving some posts from the Greek thread to focus on Puerto Rico

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:30:37 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Jun 30, 2015 9:28:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

not sure you are viewing this situation correctly.  they don't regulate their own revenues OR expenses.  it is all done stateside.

then again, i don't really know that much about PR, either.  i just don't think the appraisal that this is the fault of "socialism" makes much sense, considering that PR is kind of a neoconservative wet dream.

Perhaps I am not viewing it correctly. I would like to discuss it in further detail to get a better understanding as I'm not sure what you mean by a neoconservative wet dream (seriously! - remember - I don't debate or discuss such other than here).

Do you mind if I start a new thread on PR and move our posts there?

www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2015/02/11/puerto-rico-new-age-tax-haven/

[The Captain]

Ok, djAdvocate - remember - a lot of the terms folks use in discussing politics and economics are ones that I'm not very familiar with, and I can't really discuss that stuff outside these boards.  So when I see a phrase I tend to google it, and the internet based definition doesn't always match up with what is commonly used in debate/discussion.

So to get started - what do you mean by a neoconservative wet dream (I get the wet dream part but neoconservative?)

I found this but it doesn't seem to fit:

www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/neoconservative

It seems at odds with the history of the territory as I know it, starting out as a Spanish/Catholic controlled colony and all.

[The Captain]

Jun 30, 2015 9:50:01 GMT -5 @sroo4 said:

The article that you linked Captain,  indicated they had really low workforce participation ~40%   and they weren't very good stewards of the public money.  They sited the public schools with dropping enrollment and the very low student/teacher ratio. 

That first number is crazy... more than half of their eligible workforce isn't working. 

Which makes my point as their being more of a socialist state -where you are better off on public aid then working.

I agree, BTW - they were very poor stewards of public resources and now the chicken has come home to roost.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:50:01 GMT -5 @sroo4 said:

The article that you linked Captain,  indicated they had really low workforce participation ~40%   and they weren't very good stewards of the public money.  They sited the public schools with dropping enrollment and the very low student/teacher ratio. 

That first number is crazy... more than half of their eligible workforce isn't working. 

really good article on that subject, HERE:
www.caribbeanbusinesspr.com/prnt_ed/news02.php?nw_id=5310&ct_id=0

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:52:58 GMT -5 The Captain said:

So to get started - what do you mean by a neoconservative wet dream (I get the wet dream part but neoconservative?)

i meant it in the sense of "pro-business tax haven".

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:54:17 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Jun 30, 2015 9:50:01 GMT -5 @sroo4 said:

The article that you linked Captain,  indicated they had really low workforce participation ~40%   and they weren't very good stewards of the public money.  They sited the public schools with dropping enrollment and the very low student/teacher ratio. 

That first number is crazy... more than half of their eligible workforce isn't working. 

Which makes my point as their being more of a socialist state -where you are better off on public aid then working.

i don't think you can safely draw that conclusion, unless you consider SAHM's "freeloaders" (you are welcome to do so, at great risk to yourself from traditionalists).

I agree, BTW - they were very poor stewards of public resources and now the chicken has come home to roost.

i think that is the root of it.  but i think that the WFP thing is a definite issue.  WHY it is an issue HAS NOT BEEN STUDIED (i reviewed the existing material on this subject this morning, and every article said the same exact thing- that they know it is a problem, and has been since about 1960, but they haven't the foggiest idea of what created the problem, and therefore, no idea of how to fix it).

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 9:54:22 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

One impact this could have on many of us- there are over 10B in Puerto Rican bond obligations held by American retirement funds. Something like one in five funds have some exposure to this. 

a total of $25B in bond obligations are corporate, which is over 1/3 of PR's problem.

However given how diversified most funds are in this regard, I'm not sure how much actual direct impact this would have.  (heck, at this point I don't even know if my own bond funds have any PR exposure, but I bet some do) If your particular fund has a 30% bond allocation, and of that 1% are PR bonds, how much of a direct impact is that?  Even if you hold a straight bond fund is that really a big thing?  Well, theoretically it would lose 1% of value if the bond defaulted.  Then there is the market impact in reaction to the mess, which is impossible to gauge at this point.

indeed.

[The Captain]

Jun 30, 2015 10:03:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 30, 2015 9:54:17 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Which makes my point as their being more of a socialist state -where you are better off on public aid then working.

i don't think you can safely draw that conclusion, unless you consider SAHM's "freeloaders" (you are welcome to do so, at great risk to yourself from traditionalists).

I agree, BTW - they were very poor stewards of public resources and now the chicken has come home to roost.

i think that is the root of it.  but i think that the WFP thing is a definite issue.  WHY it is an issue HAS NOT BEEN STUDIED (i reviewed the existing material on this subject this morning, and every article said the same exact thing- that they know it is a problem, and has been since about 1960, but they haven't the foggiest idea of what created the problem, and therefore, no idea of how to fix it).

Meh.  I've been attacked on this topic more than once.

Yes the WFP is an issue (you and I have discussed this for the US).  I think WFP will continue to grow as an issue as population increases while we continue to automate more tasks.

What I find interesting (and I've read your other links) is you would think that the tax haven credits intended to attract business to the island would improve the WFP rate and taxes collected.  So, either the birth rate has outstripped those gains, or things would be much worse if not for those actions, or maybe none of the above.

Your article specifically on the WFP, and some experts acknowledging it becoming a generational dependencey issue, is what I'm concerned about happening in the US with our social safety net.  It's something I see pockets of even now.

I'm trying to find something on the PR birthrate but can't seem to find it right now.  I remember reading a few articles that linked the Mexican baby boom of the late 70's/80's to the surge in illegal immigration in the 2000's as there were more young people than jobs.  I have to wonder if that's in play in PR and how you can counteract it.

So yea, Neoconservative from a corporate point of view, but would you agree very liberal from a public benefits perspective?  Sounds like a recipe for failure to me.




 

[djAdvocate]

Jun 30, 2015 10:36:52 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Jun 30, 2015 10:03:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i think that is the root of it.  but i think that the WFP thing is a definite issue.  WHY it is an issue HAS NOT BEEN STUDIED (i reviewed the existing material on this subject this morning, and every article said the same exact thing- that they know it is a problem, and has been since about 1960, but they haven't the foggiest idea of what created the problem, and therefore, no idea of how to fix it).

Meh.  I've been attacked on this topic more than once.

Yes the WFP is an issue (you and I have discussed this for the US).  I think WFP will continue to grow as an issue as population increases while we continue to automate more tasks.

What I find interesting (and I've read your other links) is you would think that the tax haven credits intended to attract business to the island would improve the WFP rate and taxes collected.  So, either the birth rate has outstripped those gains, or things would be much worse if not for those actions, or maybe none of the above.

this is why i mockingly said "neoconservative wet dream".  Iraq is another place that qualifies.  giving businesses tax incentives in failing economies only makes the situation worse, imo, by adding failing businesses to the long list of problems.  the horse must go before the cart- you create a thriving middle class FIRST by protecting the opportunities and having a well trained workforce.  PR has neither.

Your article specifically on the WFP, and some experts acknowledging it becoming a generational dependencey issue

that is YOUR interpretation.  but they didn't actually say dependency.  they said they didn't know why WFP was low, but YES, it has been low for TWO GENERATIONS.  i can think of some reasons that are entirely unrelated to "dependency".

, is what I'm concerned about happening in the US with our social safety net.  It's something I see pockets of even now.

I'm trying to find something on the PR birthrate but can't seem to find it right now.  I remember reading a few articles that linked the Mexican baby boom of the late 70's/80's to the surge in illegal immigration in the 2000's as there were more young people than jobs.  I have to wonder if that's in play in PR and how you can counteract it.

So yea, Neoconservative from a corporate point of view, but would you agree very liberal from a public benefits perspective? 

i don't see any evidence that "public benefits" are the problem.  the low WFP rate means that tax revenues are going to be decreased, as well as economic activity, and THAT is what is causing the problem, imo.  WHY WFP IS LOW IN PR HAS NOT BEEN STUDIED.

Sounds like a recipe for failure to me.
 

indeed, if it is, in fact, true.

[Ombud]

Jun 30, 2015 9:54:22 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

One impact this could have on many of us- there are over 10B in Puerto Rican bond obligations held by American retirement funds. Something like one in five funds have some exposure to this.

Thank G-d I have no mutual funds!!!

[joemilitary]

How can they owe more that $70 Billion?  I would think that amount could buy 2 Puerto Ricos......

[jkapp]

Jun 30, 2015 10:48:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 30, 2015 10:36:52 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Meh.  I've been attacked on this topic more than once.

Yes the WFP is an issue (you and I have discussed this for the US).  I think WFP will continue to grow as an issue as population increases while we continue to automate more tasks.

What I find interesting (and I've read your other links) is you would think that the tax haven credits intended to attract business to the island would improve the WFP rate and taxes collected.  So, either the birth rate has outstripped those gains, or things would be much worse if not for those actions, or maybe none of the above.

this is why i mockingly said "neoconservative wet dream".  Iraq is another place that qualifies.  giving businesses tax incentives in failing economies only makes the situation worse, imo, by adding failing businesses to the long list of problems.  the horse must go before the cart- you create a thriving middle class FIRST by protecting the opportunities and having a well trained workforce.  PR has neither.

Your article specifically on the WFP, and some experts acknowledging it becoming a generational dependencey issue

that is YOUR interpretation.  but they didn't actually say dependency.  they said they didn't know why WFP was low, but YES, it has been low for TWO GENERATIONS.  i can think of some reasons that are entirely unrelated to "dependency".

, is what I'm concerned about happening in the US with our social safety net.  It's something I see pockets of even now.

I'm trying to find something on the PR birthrate but can't seem to find it right now.  I remember reading a few articles that linked the Mexican baby boom of the late 70's/80's to the surge in illegal immigration in the 2000's as there were more young people than jobs.  I have to wonder if that's in play in PR and how you can counteract it.

So yea, Neoconservative from a corporate point of view, but would you agree very liberal from a public benefits perspective? 

i don't see any evidence that "public benefits" are the problem.  the low WFP rate means that tax revenues are going to be decreased, as well as economic activity, and THAT is what is causing the problem, imo.  WHY WFP IS LOW IN PR HAS NOT BEEN STUDIED.

Sounds like a recipe for failure to me.
 

indeed, if it is, in fact, true.

I read that PR just kept on issuing Muni Bonds because there was such a demand for them (they were the triple-incentive tax exempt bonds, pretty much the only place you could get those types of bonds).  And by issuing bonds, they were essentially borrowing money.  Of course, PR never had the money to repay all those bonds.

But the article went on to say that much of the bond money went to their very generous welfare/social programs instead of much-needed infrastructure spending.  So, yes, there was definitely evidence of a public benefit problem in that country.  Keep paying people not to work, and they won't work

[djAdvocate]

Jul 2, 2015 15:58:02 GMT -5 jkapp said:

Jun 30, 2015 10:48:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

indeed, if it is, in fact, true.

I read that PR just kept on issuing Muni Bonds because there was such a demand for them (they were the triple-incentive tax exempt bonds, pretty much the only place you could get those types of bonds).  And by issuing bonds, they were essentially borrowing money.  Of course, PR never had the money to repay all those bonds.

But the article went on to say that much of the bond money went to their very generous welfare/social programs instead of much-needed infrastructure spending.  So, yes, there was definitely evidence of a public benefit problem in that country.  Keep paying people not to work, and they won't work

again, you make reference to it, and others have, as well, but i have not seen any evidence of it, whatsoever.  if you have any, please post it, so we can put an end to this dance. 

edit: "evidence" means numbers...data- not vague terms like "generous".  there are people that think refrigerators are luxury items out there.

edit: and YES, i have looked.

[joemilitary]

But how can they owe $70 Billion?

It's such a small place

[djAdvocate]

Jul 2, 2015 19:41:48 GMT -5 joemilitary said:

But how can they owe $70 Billion?

It's such a small place

their GDP is $101B.  having a debt to GDP of 0.7 is less than the US as a whole, and less than, frankly....ME.

[jkapp]

Jul 2, 2015 19:50:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 2, 2015 19:41:48 GMT -5 joemilitary said:

But how can they owe $70 Billion?

It's such a small place

their GDP is $101B.  having a debt to GDP of 0.7 is less than the US as a whole, and less than, frankly....ME.

PLus their government is apparently incredibly corrupt, so you have to imagine quite of bit of the economy got skimmed off the top over the years

[djAdvocate]

Jul 4, 2015 8:42:48 GMT -5 jkapp said:

Jul 2, 2015 19:50:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

their GDP is $101B.  having a debt to GDP of 0.7 is less than the US as a whole, and less than, frankly....ME.

PLus their government is apparently incredibly corrupt, so you have to imagine quite of bit of the economy got skimmed off the top over the years

i am not a big fan of PR.  i think it is a mess.  but it is a mess made by congress, imo.