The great recession is officially over

[Value Buy]

We have been out and about this weekend.

The malls are packed, restaurants impossible to get into, especially during prime time.

The roads are so busy it felt like it was December 23rd and everyone had to be out to get those last minute gifts. 

Part of this is probably because of lower gasoline and heating bills this year, but even in our extended families, unemployment is down, although income or hourly rates are not where they should be.

Thoughts?

[djAdvocate]

Feb 9, 2015 11:02:36 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

We have been out and about this weekend.

The malls are packed, restaurants impossible to get into, especially during prime time.

The roads are so busy it felt like it was December 23rd and everyone had to be out to get those last minute gifts. 

Part of this is probably because of lower gasoline and heating bills this year, but even in our extended families, unemployment is down, although income or hourly rates are not where they should be.

Thoughts?

i think that is quite correct.  HOWEVER.....

i also think the economy is slowing a tiny bit right now.

[wyouser]

Opposite effect if you happen to live IN oil country......If we can arrive at the top of the hill and can then peer "over" we can tell you if there is a "downhill" on the other side  Opinion is still out on this one

[jkapp]

If that's all it takes to be out of a recession, then, according to my area, we were never in one

It's always been busy at the mall, restaurants (especially ones around the mall), and heavy traffic around here.

[djAdvocate]

i actually noticed significant differences in traffic around here starting two years ago, and i agree with VB completely, it really "felt" like we were out of it then.  or, you can just believe the data, which is telling me pretty much the same thing.

[haapai]

Last summer, I saw a lot of roofs being repaired and siding being replaced.  It was a nice change.  But I didn't see many window boxes being built, trees planted, or gardens being dug.  I saw very old and ugly porches replaced and repaired, but I didn't see anyone dropping a couple grand on a 200-400 SF porch/patio/grilling area to die for.  There was a distinct lack of exuberance in the construction that I saw.  Basically, people were doing big-ticket repairs and maintenance that had been deferred for five years.  

It's possible that with the big stuff out of the way and gas prices low, I'll see some more hopeful projects this spring and summer. 

ETA.  About a third of the renovations that I am seeing appear to be being done on houses that have changed ownership in the last five years.  In my part of the world, that means that means that a previous owner of the house got their clock cleaned.  Seeing the repairs finally being done is bittersweet.  Yes, the work needs to be done and it is good that it is being done, but you know that the previous owner took a huge hit and is no longer my neighbor. 

[busymom]

I agree with haapai.  People are taking care of deferred maintenance, but with a few exceptions I'm not seeing any grandiose spending.  In fact, for example, those Facebook groups where you can buy & sell gently used items with your neighbors seem to be thriving.  I think people are finding new ways to get what they need, rather than getting back to former spending patterns.

[haapai]

FWIW, I work in a grocery store and the uptick in sales has been stunning.  When gas prices went down, our shelves emptied and our managers fears of not hitting quarterly projections evaporated.  Usually, at this time of year, we're cutting hours by not replacing call-ins and pressuring people to go home early.  This year, there's ample OT for anyone who wants it and absolutely no discipline regarding using it judiciously.  In other words, there's a lot of clock-milking going on.  The OT will end when projections are adjusted to reflect the price of gasoline on our sales. 

It's a rather dramatic illustration of the human propensity to consume.