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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2014 17:44:45 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2014 17:54:39 GMT -5
waste of resources. they should send her or Warren to GEORGIA and IOWA. that would be money much better spent.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2014 17:55:52 GMT -5
note: i just realized something interesting. Orman can't campaign with ANYONE. he has no machinery to draw on to win that state. if he wins it, everyone should congratulate him. he did it all on his own.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2014 1:26:38 GMT -5
a series of polls in by YouGov shows:
movement in favor of the GOP in GA and KS movement in favor of Democrats in IA, NC, and CO
i am not going to update anything until i see if they did a poll in AK.
i am not sure how this reshapes the odds, given the fact that 3 of those five are reversals in trend in close races.
edit: in other words, CO might move back to tossup, and IA most certainly might move to lower odds of winning, and GA might move off the chart. this is an amazingly fluid situation. i should note that the YouGov poll in Kansas that shows the GOP leading shows 25% undecided vote in that state, which is insanely high. i don't know what is going on there.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Nov 2, 2014 6:03:03 GMT -5
dj I wonder if the 'undecided' are like me-just not willing to talk either to a person or to a machine. I have hung up the phone on at least 8 pollister calls in about the last 20 days.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2014 9:30:47 GMT -5
dj I wonder if the 'undecided' are like me-just not willing to talk either to a person or to a machine. I have hung up the phone on at least 8 pollister calls in about the last 20 days. like i have told you before, polls are not based on non-responders, marv. if you don't answer the phone, you are not part of the survey. if you are asking if that skews results, the answer is YES. but it skews them in a KNOWN way. the good pollsters have enough data to adjust for hangups and non-connects. the bad ones don't. listen, i understand that you and many others here don't believe in the data. i got that. you think that there are so many non-participants in polling and the political process that it is impossible to gauge with any accuracy what is going to happen. but that is really not true. it is not only possible, it is done all the time. however, one key ingredient is turnout. all polling models are predicated on the composition of turnout. so, if, for example, they predict that the turnout in state X will be 47% Republican 32% Independent, and 21% Democrat, and the actual turnout is 41% Republican, 26% independent, and 33% Democrat, that is going to mess their prognostications up big time. this is what happened to Karl Rove in 2012. and, it COULD happen this time. but here is the thing. unlike the general population, which pretty much carries the same feelings about polling and the Democratic process with them to every election, pollsters do their best to have no feelings. they simply watch what happens, and then adjust their methodology to reflect it. that is how someone like a Nate Silver gets 99% of his results right.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2014 13:19:50 GMT -5
no change since last time around, but i am deleting the "leaning" category, and moving all the 65%+ probabilities to their respective parties
Republican solid : 51 Democrat solid: 47
Tossup: GA, KS
update: there are new polls out in CO, LA, and IA that suggest those seats are in play. there is no new polling in Alaska, unfortunately- a crucial state that Dems really have to win.
as of today, without seriously questioning the polls, i am predicting that the GOP will get a majority in the Senate. they have 51 solid seats, if we count IA, and that means that whether Orman or the GOP wins in KS, that KS will caucus with the GOP, giving them at least 52. a confirming poll in IA would be the most likely to cause me to go back to placing odds, as the most recent poll shows Braley up 1%. Democrats really need to win BOTH CO AND IA, given that LA and GA are runoff states, the runoff favors the GOP, and Democrats are trailing in both.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2014 19:07:29 GMT -5
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Post by EVT1 on Nov 2, 2014 19:19:54 GMT -5
"In a state with rapidly changing demographics, George P. is the only Republican running for a top statewide office this year who is not a white male"
Mighty progressive of the TX GOP to run one of "Jebby’s kids from Florida, the little brown ones" for such an important office.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2014 20:41:28 GMT -5
"In a state with rapidly changing demographics, George P. is the only Republican running for a top statewide office this year who is not a white male"
Mighty progressive of the TX GOP to run one of "Jebby’s kids from Florida, the little brown ones" for such an important office. hispanics are white.
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Post by EVT1 on Nov 2, 2014 20:46:16 GMT -5
H.W. said it about his own family. Thanks grandpa. But good point the article is mistaken on the term as well- but I get the point they are making.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2014 20:50:01 GMT -5
i am unconvinced that anything good can come from a Bush. but i am willing to give him a listen.
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Post by mmhmm on Nov 2, 2014 20:54:56 GMT -5
i am unconvinced that anything good can come from a Bush. but i am willing to give him a listen. Blueberries. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/grin.png)
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2014 20:57:00 GMT -5
i am unconvinced that anything good can come from a Bush. but i am willing to give him a listen. Blueberries. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/grin.png) this is why i capitalize proper nouns. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/wink.png)
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 3, 2014 7:49:36 GMT -5
i am unconvinced that anything good can come from a Bush. but i am willing to give him a listen. I think Jeb was the better Bush Jr, but he was the younger brother and the family promoted the more mediocore, less driven son first due to birth order. I always wonder what might have happened if Poppa Bush kept Georgie on the bench and let Jeb play first string. I can't help but think he would have been more competent than the one we got.
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 3, 2014 8:18:29 GMT -5
Well we may still get to find out. He may run in 2016.
Prior to George Jr, the Bush name was good - Poppa Bush did a fair to good job while in office, and the voters were sick of Clinton and his sex scandal, so Jeb could have easily won. Now people remember George Jr's legacy of vanishing WMD and an enormously expensive, futile war, Jeb would have an uphill climb. Of course, after a bloody primary fight, Jeb might be the only candidate left standing in the field.
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 3, 2014 10:00:21 GMT -5
The weather is supposed to be good in New England on Tuesday. That is good for turnout. That is good for Democrats, generally speaking. Of course your key Senate races are elsewhere, and the only one that was close, Shaheen vs Brown in NH, is already going Shaheen's way anyway. Good to hesr. I suppose Brown will move to Vermont and try there, though he is running out of New England states to try and hold office again.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 10:31:26 GMT -5
i am unconvinced that anything good can come from a Bush. but i am willing to give him a listen. I think Jeb was the better Bush Jr, but he was the younger brother and the family promoted the more mediocore, less driven son first due to birth order. I always wonder what might have happened if Poppa Bush kept Georgie on the bench and let Jeb play first string. I can't help but think he would have been more competent than the one we got. Jeb didn't want to run in 2000. he was busy being the guv.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 10:33:01 GMT -5
I agree, it would not be a cakewalk, and even the Bush matriarch made a comment about "having had enough Bushes". However given the generally weak potential GOP as it is now foreseen, Jeb would certainly be a contender. Heck, even I give him some consideration, and I'm a Democrat who doesn't like Bushes.
I do think it speaks badly to our winnowing process for such candidates that more than 20 years after the originals danced across the stage we are still talking about Bushes and Clintons being head and shoulders above the rest. Who are next, Chelsea and George P? Jeb has consistently placed in the top 3 in 2016 polling, along with Bridgegate and Freelance Eye Doctor. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/wink.png)
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 10:33:50 GMT -5
The weather is supposed to be good in New England on Tuesday. That is good for turnout. That is good for Democrats, generally speaking. Of course your key Senate races are elsewhere, and the only one that was close, Shaheen vs Brown in NH, is already going Shaheen's way anyway. Good to hesr. I suppose Brown will move to Vermont and try there, though he is running out of New England states to try and hold office again. if he keeps going east, he will eventually drown, which is what everyone is hoping, i think.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 10:34:50 GMT -5
Good to hesr. I suppose Brown will move to Vermont and try there, though he is running out of New England states to try and hold office again. LOL! One of the few funny political ads of the season is one in which Shaheen reminds Brown that New Hampshire is not a "consolation prize". ouch! that's gotta hurt.
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 3, 2014 10:37:32 GMT -5
I agree, it would not be a cakewalk, and even the Bush matriarch made a comment about "having had enough Bushes". However given the generally weak potential GOP as it is now foreseen, Jeb would certainly be a contender. Heck, even I give him some consideration, and I'm a Democrat who doesn't like Bushes.
I do think it speaks badly to our winnowing process for such candidates that more than 20 years after the originals danced across the stage we are still talking about Bushes and Clintons being head and shoulders above the rest. Who are next, Chelsea and George P? I agree with Mrs Bush, we shouldn't have any more Bushes or Clintons, either one, for a while. There was a reason the founding fathers decided we wouldn't be a monarchy, tied to just one family gene pool.
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 3, 2014 10:55:08 GMT -5
I agree, it would not be a cakewalk, and even the Bush matriarch made a comment about "having had enough Bushes". However given the generally weak potential GOP as it is now foreseen, Jeb would certainly be a contender. Heck, even I give him some consideration, and I'm a Democrat who doesn't like Bushes.
I do think it speaks badly to our winnowing process for such candidates that more than 20 years after the originals danced across the stage we are still talking about Bushes and Clintons being head and shoulders above the rest. Who are next, Chelsea and George P? I agree with Mrs Bush, we shouldn't have any more Bushes or Clintons, either one, for a while. There was a reason the founding fathers decided we wouldn't be a monarchy, tied to just one family gene pool. Said John and John Quincy Adams. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 10:59:18 GMT -5
pre-election wrapup: GOP favored to win majority. here are the FOUR races to watch:
KS: Orman is favored slightly to win this one. he has run an excellent campaign, and should prevail over 14? term congressman Roberts, who has run a very poor but well financed campaign. what makes me convinced this is over is the polling done with FEWER undecided votes. any time a poll is conducted that shows 10% or less undecided in the past 3 weeks, Orman is leading or tied. the only two polls that show otherwise have 18% and 22% undecided, respectively.
favourite: Independent
GA: Nunn has done a good job of getting back into this race, but is trailing or tied in the last NINE polls in that state. if there is a runoff here, which seems likely (there is an independent in the race that is expected to garner 3%, which is more than the anticipated margin of victory), Perdue will win the first round, and likely the second.
favourite: Republican
AK: transplant Sullivan is leading or tied in five of the last seven polls, here- but only one poll is of decent quality. this is normal for Alaska, and this is probably the most uncertain race, but on the basis of POLLS ALONE, the GOP is favored here.
favourite: Republican
IA: Whackadoodle Ernst has had a steady lead in this race, but all but two polls in the last month have been within MOE. unfortunately for Braley, both of the two were high quality polls: Quinnipac and the DeMoines Register.
favourite: Republican
predicted outcome: 52+1 caucus with the GOP.
other states to watch: Colorado and Louisiana are also within "striking range" for Democrats. NC is in "striking range" for Republicans.
this will be my last predictive post on this thread until after the election, as the polling data is coming in too late to be digested at this juncture.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 11:02:40 GMT -5
one final footnote for hopeful Democrats: this race will hinge on turnout. if the Democrats did a good job of mobilizing, then they might win a few of these that i have called for the GOP. if not, it is going to be a LONG two years.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 11:04:51 GMT -5
turning my attention to Maine Governor- LaPage has been trailing or tied in the last FIVE polls. this might finally be the end of him.
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 3, 2014 11:09:18 GMT -5
I agree with Mrs Bush, we shouldn't have any more Bushes or Clintons, either one, for a while. There was a reason the founding fathers decided we wouldn't be a monarchy, tied to just one family gene pool. Said John and John Quincy Adams. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png) I've often wondered what would have happened if someone other than Washington was the first president. He was the one that made it clear the country should be run by an elected person rather than by a king - if he had children, I wonder if he would have thought differently? Or what is Adams was the first president, would he have chosen to be the first King of America? Someone should write an alternative history about that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 11:19:44 GMT -5
Said John and John Quincy Adams. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png) I've often wondered what would have happened if someone other than Washington was the first president. He was the one that made it clear the country should be run by an elected person rather than by a king - if he had children, I wonder if he would have thought differently? Or what is Adams was the first president, would he have chosen to be the first King of America? Someone should write an alternative history about that. ![](http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/dc9/costello%20king.jpg)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2014 11:25:35 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2014 11:35:47 GMT -5
MSN is getting it wrong. the Senate is not "trending" toward the GOP. it is trending in PROBABILITY. that is because of TIME, not because of polling. the polls are actually TIGHTER than they were seven weeks ago. but the probabilistic models take the amount of TIME it takes to move opinion into account. so, seven weeks ago, the GOP had a much stronger position for winning than they do right now, BUT, they are more LIKELY to win now than seven weeks ago, because the Democrats have failed to close the gap. these people don't understand election modeling at all. edit: incidentally, Nate Silver's predictive model has not really changed from 3 months ago, so even the probability has not changed too much, according to him. WaPo has gone from 48% to 96% probable, that is true. but MOST of the polling houses and odds makers have actually changed very little. i am with them. this race is tight as a tick.
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