The Emperor has no clothes

[Virgil Showlion]

If Islam worries you, Mark Steyn's work will keep you up at night. He looks at the implications of current birth rates for Islamic and non-Islamic peoples 10-30 years down the road. The future belongs to Islam.

For many European nations the timeframe is closer to 5 years.

Birthrates in many Islamic countries are dropping, but nowhere near fast enough to meaningfully impact Steyn's analysis. And of course western birthrates continue their dismal decline for all but first-generation immigrants, many of whom are (not surprisingly) Muslims.

Personally, Islam is pretty low on my list o' things to worry about. Western society as we know it is doomed anyway ISFAIC.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I'm well aware of your myopic world view, Virg. No Islam doesn't keep me up at nights and no I don't think the west is doomed. I'm just trying to make people aware that the east is about to go through a major conflict and the west is in for an "attitude" adjustment. OTSS!

[djAdvocate]

Catholicism is going to win in the US.  Buddhism and Hinduism in SE Asia.  if Europe goes to Islam, that will be a nice balance.

cheers. 

[Virgil Showlion]

Agreed that Hinduism will prevail in India. Islam will find strongholds in Africa, the Middle East, Oceana. China I don't know, since they've flirted with instituting a state religion and might well do it as events unfold. Thailand will remain predominantly Buddhist.

And for reasons too obscure to get into: Catholicism in Europe and South America, and agnosticism in North America.

I'm well aware of your myopic world view, Virg.

Considering these demographic shifts are occurring as we speak and will reach critical mass within a matter of years, I'm afraid a myopic view is rather appropriate.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jun 19, 2014 5:59:28 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Jun 18, 2014 16:52:04 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Man. I can golf, renege on promises, bungle foreign policy, and not win in no-win situations.

I should've become a politician.



Look at dat POTUS,
That's the way ya do it.
Ya play the five iron off the 18th tee.
No that ain't workin',
that's the way ya do it.
Get your money for nothin' and your press for free.

Egad man, no you don't!
What self respecting golf course has a par 3 for the last hole in?

I did think of that after I'd hit the "Create Post" button. But a good artist accepts all the flaws in his work.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 19, 2014 5:34:56 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Agreed that Hinduism will prevail in India. Islam will find strongholds in Africa, the Middle East, Oceana. China I don't know, since they've flirted with instituting a state religion and might well do it as events unfold. Thailand will remain predominantly Buddhist.

And for reasons too obscure to get into: Catholicism in Europe and South America, and agnosticism in North America.

I'm well aware of your myopic world view, Virg.

Considering these demographic shifts are occurring as we speak and will reach critical mass within a matter of years, I'm afraid a myopic view is rather appropriate.

Well Virg, you backed you know who on MT for years because you believed that your myopic world view was "appropriate", sorry if I don't take your views on the topic seriously.

Also, you are aware that Christianity has some serious roots in India, right?

Funny how Steyn's predictions you are talking about were from before the current situation in the Mid East, and before the American economy really started its slow and steady comeback. As Islam collapses in on itself, nationalism rises across Europe and North America, and Chinese boots end up on the ground, we will revisit yours and the Ayatollah's whole Islam is the way of the future thing, mmkay? For now, try to have a good one, I know it must be tough for you.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2014 12:16:03 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

And while the world situation is looking worse and worse, he goes golfing....

And for that, I applaud him.  His "favorability" just went up a point or two with me.

Without some distractions that job would drive anyone insane.

You applaud him for going golfing while our nation goes down the toilet? Interesting, but not surprising.

[Deleted]

Jun 19, 2014 10:17:58 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Jun 19, 2014 10:14:03 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

You applaud him for going golfing while our nation goes down the toilet? Interesting, but not surprising.

Did you not understand the context in which I write that?

What's so hard to understand? You support him golfing. I do not.

[dondub]

Ya play the five iron off the 18th tee.

 Perhaps it's a risk/reward par 4 with a 225 yard carry over water or a 185 layup with a 5 iron, leaving an approach of 165.

 Or a hard dogleg right (Virgil's course) where tee shot placement is a must unless you can crush a fade around the corner
risking a ball into the tall firs and a sure bogey.

[dondub]

Golfing POTUS:

"That title falls to Woodrow Wilson, who reportedly played about 1,200 rounds during his presidency. Dwight Eisenhower is the runner-up at 800, according to his memorial commission."

 Why the scab pickers give a whit about Obama playing golf is hilarious. Wait until they discover he uses three-ply. It'll be another 'scandal'.

[dondub]

 Did he get that carp from the pond on 18?

[djAdvocate]

again, why would people who loathe Obama want him at work?  i don't get it.

[dondub]

 They are addicted to their whining like babies about him. Golf is just one of the items on the list.

[mmhmm]

I do hope people realize more deals get discussed, planned, and done on a golf course than ever gets done in a board room.  At least, that's true of most of the people I know.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 19, 2014 11:11:35 GMT -5 dondub said:

 They are addicted to their whining like babies about him. Golf is just one of the items on the list.

i remember whining about Bush's golfing, but then i realized that having him on the course meant that he was not anywhere near the red button.  after that, i became very content with the abundant time off he took.

people that hate Obama should feel the same way.

[dondub]

 It's psychotic to continually begrudge a POTUS the chance to occasionally relax and have fun. A round golf golf twice a month is hardly dereliction of duty. The foamers
don't seem to realize how foolish they look with all the complaining about Obama's golf.

[usaone]

Jun 19, 2014 10:14:03 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Jun 18, 2014 12:16:03 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

And for that, I applaud him.  His "favorability" just went up a point or two with me.

Without some distractions that job would drive anyone insane.

You applaud him for going golfing while our nation goes down the toilet? Interesting, but not surprising.

Every President Golfs/ect......this thinking is as silly as people complaining about Bush traveling across the country to his ranch.

[Deleted]

Jun 19, 2014 12:24:43 GMT -5 usaone said:

Jun 19, 2014 10:14:03 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

You applaud him for going golfing while our nation goes down the toilet? Interesting, but not surprising.

Every President Golfs/ect......this thinking is as silly as people complaining about Bush traveling across the country to his ranch.

If he was the CEO of any big company in trouble, he would have been fired by now.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 19, 2014 12:35:24 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Jun 19, 2014 12:24:43 GMT -5 usaone said:

Every President Golfs/ect......this thinking is as silly as people complaining about Bush traveling across the country to his ranch.

If he was the CEO of any big company in trouble, he would have been fired by now.

yeah, because we all know how efficiently corporations hire and fire their management.



edit:  six words for you:

Johnathan Schwartz
Ken Lay
Chuck Conway

none of these guys were fired until their companies were driven into near bankruptcy by as much bad management as they could take.  Obama looks like Lincoln compared to any of them.

[djAdvocate]

i see way more gross incompetence in industry than in government.  i also see way more innovation and genius.  it is a double edges sword.

curiously, what i have found is that the incompetence and nepotism in a business are often proportional to the size of it.  kinda like government, but at least with government, there is a lot of light on the actions, and people at least have the opportunity to vote it out.  with c-corps, it all revolves around controlling interest.  it would be like....the Koch brothers getting 1M votes and everyone else getting 1.  how fair would that be?  how reasonable is that?  how much does that ensure a just outcome in an election?  not at all, of course.

[Tennesseer]

Jun 19, 2014 12:35:24 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

Jun 19, 2014 12:24:43 GMT -5 usaone said:

Every President Golfs/ect......this thinking is as silly as people complaining about Bush traveling across the country to his ranch.

If he was the CEO of any big company in trouble, he would have been fired by now.

Though he started two wars and our soldiers died, as our economy and employment tanked, Bush continued to take vacation trips to Texas to chop wood.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 19, 2014 13:03:14 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Jun 19, 2014 12:35:24 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

If he was the CEO of any big company in trouble, he would have been fired by now.

Though he started two wars and our soldiers died, as our economy and employment tanked, Bush continued to take vacation trips to Texas to chop wood.

worse.  to PRETEND to chop wood, so the cameras could catch him "being manly".

once a cheerleader, always a cheerleader:

[Virgil Showlion]

Jun 19, 2014 9:49:43 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Population growth is hardly the only metric- or even the primary one- to use to attempt to predict future global and regional dominance.  The population growth of China and India have been supported by infrastructure, educational and economic growth trends that make these economic powerhouses, and forces for the future of the human population as a whole.  African population growth however, has been more than matched by political and economic stagnation and atrophe, as well as outright dislocation, famine and die offs.

There is a diversity to Islam that makes it a difficult demographic ID for a singular people, given that it is widely spread throughout the Middle East, south Asia, and the Indian Ocean island nations.  However population growth is the only dynamic that supports the growth of this polyglot demographic in real terms.  Ironically the strongest nation I see within the whole region is Iran, and they have some serious political shackles to at least reform so that they can reach their potential.

Population growth is always checked by Malthusian factors. I agree it doesn't really matter if your birth rate is 10 kids per couple if only one in thirty individuals lives long enough to reach reproduction age.

Having said that, longevity has been on an upward trajectory for decades over all major demographics--including Muslims. In other words, not only is the Islamic birth rate remaining at a high multiple of the non-Islamic birth rate, but also more children in the demographic are reaching maturity, and the population is living longer in general. There are dips and noise here and there, but the macro trend is stable.

The issue is a double-edged sword since birth rates typically plummet as standards of living improve, but if standards of living are high it means that factors such as war, famine and disease aren't ravaging your population. Likewise, if some "final solutionist" decides to bomb the tar out of every Islamist country he can but doesn't succeed in extirpating the population, the birth rate will (in all statistically likelihood) skyrocket, accomplishing precisely the opposite of what he intended in the long run.

[Blonde Granny]

Jun 19, 2014 12:44:56 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 19, 2014 12:35:24 GMT -5 @lonewolf said:

If he was the CEO of any big company in trouble, he would have been fired by now.

yeah, because we all know how efficiently corporations hire and fire their management.



edit:  six words for you:

Johnathan Schwartz
Ken Lay
Chuck Conway

none of these guys were fired until their companies were driven into near bankruptcy by as much bad management as they could take.  Obama looks like Lincoln compared to any of them.

Oh yes, Ken Lay.  The joke at the time was whether or not anyone checked the casket.  Some needed verification that he was actually in it, after all, since his conviction was on appeal, his wife inherited everything.  And everything was millions.

[Virgil Showlion]

The West is not done. Despite a very disconcerting population decrease in Europe the west is still politically and economically vibrant, and has the most diverse and rich resources on the planet. The "old" west of Europe and the United States will be joined by the rising Latin American countries, and indeed, the US is enjoying the fruits of their population growth (although we often don't see it that way, it's true. Once again, America will be strengthened by our immigrant waves)

Try not to look too surprised five years from now.

I'll leave it at that. My dour outlook makes several posters... uncomfortable.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jun 20, 2014 9:19:28 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Yeah, I know about your outlook on it Virg, which is why I phrased it that way.

What you need to do is seperate the concept of economic meltdown from irreversable societal collapse.  We certainly face a day of reckoning with regard to our curret economic debt structure, and I believe with our concept of the consumer society.  We also face a seismic change in the basis of our economy, which we can barely begin to even imagine.

The first is very dangerous, and fraught with challenge as we will need the political and societal fortitude to deal with massive disruptions if the economic impact of the crash is severe as you anticipate.  As the entire system threatens to shut down marshall law may need to be imposed to ensure delivery of essencial goods and in order to prevent chaos.

The second is actually a tremendous opportunity.

I have to "like" this post because I've honestly never heard anyone refer to marshal law as "a tremendous opportunity" (in a favourable context).

Your optimism glows brighter than a 1000 watt bulb, sir.

[billisonboard]

I am wondering if we will have "Marshall" law, in which I assume civilian law enforcement personnel would take over, or "martial" law in which the military would take over.

[Virgil Showlion]

I suspect it will be marital law, in which husbands and wives take over.

Or possibly marsupial law, in which koalas and kangaroos conspire to oppress us.

Possibly marshy law for Florida and Louisiana.

Martian law for cities surrounded by red desert landscapes. And marshmallow law for woodsy camping cities.

Partial law for Indiana, since they won't figure out whether they want it or not.

...

[billisonboard]

Also, I believe that in martial law, a military person becomes the chief executive officer and head of state. The duly elected government using the military for food distribution or crowd control would not be martial law.

[djAdvocate]

don't be too hard on yourself, dem.  i have misspelled martial more times than i have spelled it right.